Page 126

References

Aagaard, K., and E.C. Carmack, 1989. The role of sea ice and other fresh waters in the Arctic circulation. J. Geophys. Res. 94, 14485-14498.

Alam, M., 1996. Subsidence of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta of Bangladesh and associated drainage, sedimentation, and salinity problems. In Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence: Causes, Consequences, and Strategies, J.D. Milliman and B.U. Haq (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 169-192.

Allan, R.J., J.A. Lindesay, and C.J.C. Reason, 1995. Multidecadal variability in the climate system over the Indian Ocean region during the austral summer. J. Climate 8, 1853-1873.

Allen, L.H., and J.S. Amthor, 1995. Plant physiological responses to elevated CO2, temperature, air pollution, and UV-B radiation. In Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climate System, G.M. Woodwell and F.T. MacKenzie (eds.), Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 51-84.

Alley, R.B., D.A. Meese, C.A. Shuman, A.J. Gow, K.C. Taylor, P.M. Grootes, J.W.C. White, M. Ram. E.D. Waddington, P.A. Mayewski, and G.A. Zielinski, 1993. Abrupt increase in Greenland snow accumulation at the end of the Younger Dryas event. Nature 362, 527-529.

Anderson, L.G., G. Bjork, O. Holby, E.P. Jones, G. Kattner, K.P. Koltermann, B. Liljeblad, R. Lindeyren, B. Rudels, and J.H. Swift, 1994. Water masses and circulation in the Eurasian Basin: Results from the Oden 91 expedition. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 3273-3283.

Asner, G.P., T.R. Seastedt, and A.R. Townshend, 1997. The decoupling of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycles. Bioscience 47, 226-234.

Bacon, S., and D.J.T. Carter, 1993. A connection between mean wave height and atmospheric pressure gradient in the North Atlantic. Int. J. Climatol. 13, 423-436.

Baldocchi, D., R. Valentini, S. Running, W. Oechels, and R. Dahlman, 1996. Strategies for measuring and modelling carbon dioxide and water vapour fluxes over terrestrial ecosystems. Global Change Biol. 2, 159-168.

Baldwin, C., and U. Lall, in press. Seasonality of Streamflow: The Upper Mississippi River. Water Resour. Res.

Barnett, T.P., 1985. Variations in near global sea level pressure. J. Atmos. Sci. 42, 478-501.

Barnett, T.P., 1995. Monte Carlo climate forecasting. J. Climate 8, 1005-1022.

Barnett, T.P., and M.E. Schlesinger, 1987. Detecting changes in global climate induced by greenhouse gases. J. Geophys. Res. 92, 14772-14780.

Barnett, T.P., N. Graham, M.A. Cane, S. Zebiak, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legler, 1988. On the prediction of the E1 Niño of 1986-1987. Science 241, 192-196.

Barnola, J.M., D. Raynaud, Y.S. Korotkevich, and C. Lorius, 1987. Vostok ice core provides 160,000-year record of atmospheric CO2. Nature 329, 408-414.

Barnston, A., and R.E. Livezey, 1987. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 1083-1126.

Barnston, A.G., H.M. van Dool, S.E. Zebiak, T.P. Barnett, M. Ji, D.R. Rodenhuis, M.A. Cane, A. Leetmaa, N.E. Graham, C.R. Ropelewski, V.E. Kousky, E.O. O'Lenic, and R.E. Livesey, 1994. Long-lead seasonal forecasts-where do we stand? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 75, 2097-2114.

Barry, R.G., and R.J. Chorley, 1992. Atmosphere, Weather and Climate, 6th ed., Routledge, London, 550 pp.

Barry, J.P., C.H. Baxter, R.D. Sagarin, and S.E. Gilman, 1995. Climate-related, long-term faunal changes in a California rocky intertidal community. Science 267, 672-675.

Barsugli, J.J., and D.S. Battisti, 1998. The basic effects of atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability. J. Atmos. Sci. 55, 477-493.

Battisti, D.S., and E.S. Sarachik, 1995. Understanding and predicting ENSO. Rev. Geophys. 33, 1367-1376.

Battle, M., M. Bender, T. Sowers, P. Tans, J. Butler, J. Elkins, J. Ellis, T. Conway, N. Zhang, P. Lang, and A. Clarke, 1996. Atmospheric gas concentrations over the past century measured in air from firn at the South Pole. Nature 383, 231-235.

Beck, J.W., R.L. Edwards, E. Ito, F.W. Taylor, J. Recy, F. Rougerie, P. Joannot, and C. Henin, 1992. Sea-surface temperature from coral skeletal strontium/calcium ratios. Science 257, 644-647.

Beck, J.W., J. Recy, F. Taylor, R.L. Edwards, and G. Cabioch, 1997. Abrupt changes in early Holocene tropical sea-surface temperature derived from coral records. Nature 385, 705-707.

Beer, J., U. Siegenthaler, G. Bonani, R.C. Finkel, H. Oeschger, M. Suter, and W. Wölfli, 1988. Information on past solar activity from10Be in the Camp Century ice core. Nature 331, 675-679.

Behl, R.J., and J.P. Kennett, 1996. Brief interstadial events in the Santa Barbara basin, NE Pacific, during the past 60 kyr. Nature 379, 243-246.

Bell, G.D., and J.E. Janowiak, 1995. Atmospheric circulation associated with the Midwest floods of 1993. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 76, 681-695.

Bender, M., T. Sowers, M.-L. Dickson, J. Orchardo, P. Grootes, P.A. Mayewski, and D.A. Meese, 1994. Climate correlations between Greenland and Antarctica during the past 100,000 years. Nature 372, 663-666.

Bender, M., T. Sowers, and E. Brook, 1997. Gases in ice cores. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 94, 8343-8349.

Berner, E.K., and R.A. Berner, 1987. The Global Water Cycle. Geochemistry and Environment. Prentice-Hall Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 387 pp.



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 126
Page 126 References Aagaard, K., and E.C. Carmack, 1989. The role of sea ice and other fresh waters in the Arctic circulation. J. Geophys. Res. 94, 14485-14498. Alam, M., 1996. Subsidence of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta of Bangladesh and associated drainage, sedimentation, and salinity problems. In Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence: Causes, Consequences, and Strategies, J.D. Milliman and B.U. Haq (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 169-192. Allan, R.J., J.A. Lindesay, and C.J.C. Reason, 1995. Multidecadal variability in the climate system over the Indian Ocean region during the austral summer. J. Climate 8, 1853-1873. Allen, L.H., and J.S. Amthor, 1995. Plant physiological responses to elevated CO2, temperature, air pollution, and UV-B radiation. In Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climate System, G.M. Woodwell and F.T. MacKenzie (eds.), Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 51-84. Alley, R.B., D.A. Meese, C.A. Shuman, A.J. Gow, K.C. Taylor, P.M. Grootes, J.W.C. White, M. Ram. E.D. Waddington, P.A. Mayewski, and G.A. Zielinski, 1993. Abrupt increase in Greenland snow accumulation at the end of the Younger Dryas event. Nature 362, 527-529. Anderson, L.G., G. Bjork, O. Holby, E.P. Jones, G. Kattner, K.P. Koltermann, B. Liljeblad, R. Lindeyren, B. Rudels, and J.H. Swift, 1994. Water masses and circulation in the Eurasian Basin: Results from the Oden 91 expedition. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 3273-3283. Asner, G.P., T.R. Seastedt, and A.R. Townshend, 1997. The decoupling of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycles. Bioscience 47, 226-234. Bacon, S., and D.J.T. Carter, 1993. A connection between mean wave height and atmospheric pressure gradient in the North Atlantic. Int. J. Climatol. 13, 423-436. Baldocchi, D., R. Valentini, S. Running, W. Oechels, and R. Dahlman, 1996. Strategies for measuring and modelling carbon dioxide and water vapour fluxes over terrestrial ecosystems. Global Change Biol. 2, 159-168. Baldwin, C., and U. Lall, in press. Seasonality of Streamflow: The Upper Mississippi River. Water Resour. Res. Barnett, T.P., 1985. Variations in near global sea level pressure. J. Atmos. Sci. 42, 478-501. Barnett, T.P., 1995. Monte Carlo climate forecasting. J. Climate 8, 1005-1022. Barnett, T.P., and M.E. Schlesinger, 1987. Detecting changes in global climate induced by greenhouse gases. J. Geophys. Res. 92, 14772-14780. Barnett, T.P., N. Graham, M.A. Cane, S. Zebiak, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legler, 1988. On the prediction of the E1 Niño of 1986-1987. Science 241, 192-196. Barnola, J.M., D. Raynaud, Y.S. Korotkevich, and C. Lorius, 1987. Vostok ice core provides 160,000-year record of atmospheric CO2. Nature 329, 408-414. Barnston, A., and R.E. Livezey, 1987. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 1083-1126. Barnston, A.G., H.M. van Dool, S.E. Zebiak, T.P. Barnett, M. Ji, D.R. Rodenhuis, M.A. Cane, A. Leetmaa, N.E. Graham, C.R. Ropelewski, V.E. Kousky, E.O. O'Lenic, and R.E. Livesey, 1994. Long-lead seasonal forecasts-where do we stand? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 75, 2097-2114. Barry, R.G., and R.J. Chorley, 1992. Atmosphere, Weather and Climate, 6th ed., Routledge, London, 550 pp. Barry, J.P., C.H. Baxter, R.D. Sagarin, and S.E. Gilman, 1995. Climate-related, long-term faunal changes in a California rocky intertidal community. Science 267, 672-675. Barsugli, J.J., and D.S. Battisti, 1998. The basic effects of atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability. J. Atmos. Sci. 55, 477-493. Battisti, D.S., and E.S. Sarachik, 1995. Understanding and predicting ENSO. Rev. Geophys. 33, 1367-1376. Battle, M., M. Bender, T. Sowers, P. Tans, J. Butler, J. Elkins, J. Ellis, T. Conway, N. Zhang, P. Lang, and A. Clarke, 1996. Atmospheric gas concentrations over the past century measured in air from firn at the South Pole. Nature 383, 231-235. Beck, J.W., R.L. Edwards, E. Ito, F.W. Taylor, J. Recy, F. Rougerie, P. Joannot, and C. Henin, 1992. Sea-surface temperature from coral skeletal strontium/calcium ratios. Science 257, 644-647. Beck, J.W., J. Recy, F. Taylor, R.L. Edwards, and G. Cabioch, 1997. Abrupt changes in early Holocene tropical sea-surface temperature derived from coral records. Nature 385, 705-707. Beer, J., U. Siegenthaler, G. Bonani, R.C. Finkel, H. Oeschger, M. Suter, and W. Wölfli, 1988. Information on past solar activity from10Be in the Camp Century ice core. Nature 331, 675-679. Behl, R.J., and J.P. Kennett, 1996. Brief interstadial events in the Santa Barbara basin, NE Pacific, during the past 60 kyr. Nature 379, 243-246. Bell, G.D., and J.E. Janowiak, 1995. Atmospheric circulation associated with the Midwest floods of 1993. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 76, 681-695. Bender, M., T. Sowers, M.-L. Dickson, J. Orchardo, P. Grootes, P.A. Mayewski, and D.A. Meese, 1994. Climate correlations between Greenland and Antarctica during the past 100,000 years. Nature 372, 663-666. Bender, M., T. Sowers, and E. Brook, 1997. Gases in ice cores. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 94, 8343-8349. Berner, E.K., and R.A. Berner, 1987. The Global Water Cycle. Geochemistry and Environment. Prentice-Hall Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 387 pp.

OCR for page 126
Page 127 Betts, R.A., P.M. Cox, S.E. Lea, and F.I. Woodward, 1997. Contrasting physiological and structural vegetation feedbacks in the climate change simulations. Nature 387, 796-799. Bindoff, N.L., and J.A. Church, 1992. Warming of the water column in the southwest Pacific Ocean. Nature 357, 59-62. Bindoff, N.L., and T.J. McDougall, 1994. Diagnosing climate change and ocean ventilation using hydrographic data. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 24, 1137-1152. Bindoff, N.L., and T.J. McDougall, in press. Decadal changes along an Indian Ocean section at 32°S and their interpretation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. Bingham, F.M., 1992. Formation and spreading of subtropical model water in the North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. 97, 11177-11189. Biondi, F., C.B. Lange, M.K. Hughes, and W.H. Berger, 1997. Interdecadal signals during the last millennium (AD 1117-1992) in the varve record of Santa Barbara basin, California. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 193-196. Bitz, C.C., 1997. A Model Study of Natural Variability in the Arctic Climate, Ph.D. thesis, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, 200 pp. Bitz, C.M., D.S. Battisti, R.E. Moritz, and J.A. Beasley, 1996. Low-frequency variability in the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, and upper-ocean climate system. J. Climate 9, 394-408. Bjorgo, E., O.M. Johannessen, and M.W. Miles, 1997. Analysis of merged SMMR-SSMI time series of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice parameters 1978-1995. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 413-416. Blunier, T., J. Chapellaz, J. Schwander, J. Barnola, T. Desperts, B. Stauffer, and D. Raynaud, 1993. Atmospheric methane record from a Greenland ice core over the last 1000 years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 2219-2222. Blunier, T., J. Schwander, B. Stauffer, T. Stocker, A. Dällenbach, A. Indermühle, J. Taschumi, J. Chappellaz, D. Raynaud, and J.-M Barnola, 1997. Timing of temperature variations during the last deglaciation in Antarctica and the atmospheric CO2 increase with respect to the Younger Dryas event. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 2683-2686. Blunier, T., J. Chappellaz, J. Schwander, A. Dällenbach, B. Stauffer, T.F. Stocker, D. Raynaud, J. Jouzel, H.B. Clausen, C.U. Hammer, and S.J. Johnsen, 1998. Asynchrony of Antarctic and Greenland climate change during the last glacial period. Nature 394, 739-743. Bonan, G., D. Pollard, and S.L. Thompson, 1992. Effects of boreal forest vegetation on global climate. Nature 359, 716-718. Bond, G.C., and R. Lotti, 1995. Iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic on millennial time scales during the last glaciation. Science 267, 1005-1010. Bond, G.C., W. Showers, M. Cheseby, R. Lotti, P. Almasi, P. deMenocal, P. Priore, H. Cullen, I. Hajdas, and G. Bonani, 1997. A pervasive millennial-scale cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and glacial climates. Science 278, 1257-1266. Booth, C.R., and S. Madronich, 1994. Radiation amplification factors: Improved formulation accounts for large increases in ultraviolet radiation associated with Antarctic ozone depletion. In Ultraviolet Radiation in Antarctica: Measurements and Biological Research, C.S. Weiler and P.A. Penhale (eds.), AGU Antarctic Research Series, v. 62, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 39-42. Bradley, R.S., 1988. The explosive volcanic eruption signal in Northern Hemisphere continental temperature records. Clim. Change 12, 221-243. Bradley, R.S., and P.D. Jones, 1992. Climate Since A.D. 1500. Routledge, New York, 679 pp. Bradley, R.S., and P.D. Jones, 1993. "Little Ice Age" summer temperature variations: Their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends. Holocene 3, 367-376. Brecher, H.H., and L.G. Thompson, 1993. Measurement of the retreat of Qori Kalis in the tropical Andes of Peru by terrestrial photogrammetry. Photogram. Eng. Remote Sensing 59, 1017-1022. Briffa, K.R., T.S. Bartholin, D. Eckstein, P.D. Jones, W. Karlen, F.H. Schweingruber, and P. Zetterburg, 1990. A 1400-year tree-ring record of summer temperatures in Fennoscandia. Nature 346, 434-439. Briffa, K.R., P.D. Jones, F.H. Schweingruber, S.G. Shiyatov, and E.R. Cook, 1995. Unusual twentieth-century warmth in a 1000-year temperature record from Siberia. Nature 376, 156-159. Broccoli, A.J., and S. Manabe, 1990. Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate? Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 1917-1920. Broccoli, A.J., N.-C. Lau, and M.J. Nath, in press. The cold ocean-warm land pattern: Model simulation and relevance to climate change detection. J. Climate. Broecker, W., 1991. The great ocean conveyor. Oceanography 4, 79-89. Broecker, W., 1994. Massive iceberg discharges as triggers for global climate change. Nature 372, 421-424. Broecker, W., and G.H. Denton, 1989. The role of ocean-atmosphere reorganizations in glacial-cycles. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 53, 2465-2501. Brown, R.D., and B.E. Goodison, 1996. Interannual variability in reconstructed Canadian snow cover 1915-1992. J. Climate 9, 1299-1318. Bruun, P., 1962. Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion. J. Waterways Harbors Div., Proc. Soc. Civil Eng. 88, 117-130. Bryden, H.L., D. Roemmich, and J. Church, 1991. Oceanic heat transport across 24 degrees N in the Pacific. Deep-Sea Res. 37, 297-324. Bryden, H.L., M.J. Griffiths, A.M. Lavin, R.C. Millard, G. Parrilla, and W.M. Smethie, 1996. Decadal changes in water mass characteristics at 24ºN in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate 9, 3162-3186. Budyko, M.I., 1969. The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth. Tellus 21, 611-619. Bush, A.B.G., and S.G.H. Philander, 1998. The role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in tropical cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum. Science 279, 1341-1344. Businger, J.A., and S.P. Oncley, 1990. Flux measurement with conditional sampling. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech. 7, 349-352. Campbell, I.D., and J.H. McAndrews, 1993. Forest disequilibrium caused by rapid Little Ice Age cooling. Nature 366, 336-338. Cane, M.A., and S.E. Zebiak, 1987. Predictability of El Niño events using a physical model. In Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability, H. Cattle (ed.), Royal Meteorological Society Press, London, pp. 153-182. Cane, M.A., S.E. Zebiak, and S.C. Dolan, 1986. Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature 321, 827-832. Cane, M.A., A.C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, D. Pozdnyakov, R. Seager, S. Zebiak, and R. Murtugudde, 1997. Twentieth-century sea surface temperature trends. Science 275, 957-960. Carmack, E.C., R.W. Macdonald, R.G. Perkin, F.A. McLaughlin, and R.J. Pearson, 1995. Evidence for warming of Atlantic water in the southern Canadian basin of the Arctic Ocean: Results from the Larsen-93 expedition. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 1061-1064. Carmack, E.C., K. Aagaard, J.H. Swift, R.W. Macdonald, F.A. McLaughlin, E.P. Jones, R.G. Perkin, J.N. Smith, K. Ellis, and L. Kilius, in press. Changes in temperature and contaminant distributions within the Arctic Ocean. Deep-Sea Res. Cavalieri, D.J., P. Gloersen, C.L. Parkinson, J.C. Comiso, and H.J. Zwally, 1997. Observed hemispheric asymmetry in global sea ice changes. Science 278, 1104-1106. Cayan, D.R., 1996. Interannual climate variability and snowpack in the western United States. J. Climate. 9, 928-948. Cayan, D.R., and D.H. Peterson, 1989. The influence of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation and streamflow in the West. In Aspects of Climate Variability in the Western Americas, D.H. Peterson (ed.), Geophys. Monogr. 55, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 375-397. Cessi, P., and G.R. Ierley, 1995. Symmetry-breaking multiple equilibria in quasigeostrophic, wind-driven flows. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 25, 1196-1205. Chahine, M.T., 1992. The hydrological cycle and its influence on climate. Nature 359, 373-380. Chameides, W.L., P.S. Kasibhatla, J. Yienger, and H. Levy III, 1994. Growth of continental-scale metro-agro-plexes, regional ozone production, and world food production. Science 264, 74-77.

OCR for page 126
Page 128 Chang, P., L. Ji, and H. Li, 1997. A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. Nature 385, 516-518. Chang, P., L. Ji, H. Li, C. Penland, and L Matrisova, 1998. Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1193-1196. Changnon, S.A. (ed.), 1996. The Great Flood of 1993: Causes, impacts, and responses. Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 300 pp. Chappellaz, J., T. Blunier, D. Raynaud, J.M. Barnola, J. Schwander, and B. Stauffer, 1993a. Synchronous changes in atmospheric CH4 and Greenland climate between 40 and 8 kyr BP. Nature 366, 443-445. Chappellaz, J.A, I.Y. Fung, and A.M. Thompson, 1993b. The atmospheric CH4 increase since the last glacial maximum: 1. Source estimates. Tellus 45B. 228-241. Charney, J.G., 1975. Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 101, 193-202. Chen, F., and M. Ghil, 1995. Interdecadal variability of the thermohaline circulation and high-latitude surface fluxes. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 25, 2547-2568. Chen, F., and M. Ghil, 1996. Interdecadal variability in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 26, 1561-1578. Chen, D., S.E. Zebiak, A.J. Busalacchi, and M.A. Cane, 1995. An improved procedure for E1 Niño forecasting: Implications for predictability. Science 269, 1699-1702. Chin, M., and D.D. Davis, 1995. A reanalysis of carbonyl sulfide as a source of stratospheric background aerosol. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 8993-9005. Ciais, P., P.P. Tans, M. Trolier, J.W.C. White, and R.J. Francey. 1995. A large Northern Hemisphere terrestrial CO2 sink indicated by the13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2. Science 269, 1098-1102. CIESIN (Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network), 1995. Thematic Guide to Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change [online]. University Center, Michigan. Available: http:// sedac.ciesin.org/mva/iamcc.tg/TGsec4.html [1998, October 21]. Clement, A., R. Seager, M.A. Cane. and S.E. Zebiak, 1996. An ocean thermostat. J. Climate 9, 2190-2196. CLIMAP Project Members. 1981. Seasonal reconstruction of the Earth's surface at the last glacial maximum. MC-36 Geological Society of America Map and Chart Series. Cohen, J.E., 1995. How Many People Can the Earth Support? Norton, New York, 532 pp. Cole, J.E., and R.G. Fairbanks, 1990. The Southern Oscillation recorded in the oxygen isotopes of corals from Tarawa Atoll. Paleoceanography 5, 669-683. Cole, J.E., R.G. Fairbanks, and G.T. Shen, 1993. The spectrum of recent variability in the Southern Oscillation: Results from a Tarawa Atoll coral. Science 262, 1790-1793. Coles, V.J., M.S. McCartney, D.B. Olson, and W.J. Smethie, Jr., 1996. Changes in Antarctic Bottom Water properties in the western South Atlantic in the late 1980s. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 8957-8970. Conway, T.J., P.P. Tans, L.S. Waterman, K.W. Thoning, D.R. Kitzis, K.A. Masarie, and N. Zhang, 1994. Evidence for interannual variability of the carbon cycle from the NOAA/CMDL global air sampling network. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 22831-22855. Coohill, T.P., 1991. Stratospheric ozone depletion as it affects life on Earth—the role of ultraviolet action spectroscopy. In Impact of Global Climatic Changes on Photosynthesis and Plant Productivity, Proceedings of the Indo-US Workshop, Oxford and IBH Publishing Co., New Delhi. pp. 3-22. Cook, E.R., and L.A Kairiukstis, 1990. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 408 pp. Cook, E.R., T. Bird, M. Peterson, M. Barbetti, B. Buckley, R. D'Arrigo, R. Francey, and P. Tans, 1991. Climatic change in Tasmania inferred from a 1089-year tree-ring chronology of Huon pine. Science 253, 1266-1268. Cook, E.R., D.M. Meko, and C.W. Stockton, 1997. A new assessment of possible solar and lunar forcing of the bidecadal drought rhythm in the western United States. J. Climate 10, 1343-1356. Cook, E.R., D.M. Meko, D.W. Stahle, and M.K. Cleaveland, in press. Drought reconstructions for the continental United States, J. Climate. Crutzen, P., 1976. The possible importance of CSO for the sulfate layer of the stratosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett. 3, 73-76. Cuffey, K.M., G.D. Clow, R.B. Alley, M. Stuiver, E.D. Waddington, and R.W. Saltus, 1995. Large Arctic temperature change at the Wisconsin-Holocene glacial transition. Science 270, 455-458. Curry, J.A., W.B. Rossow, D. Randall, and J.L. Schramm, 1996. Overview of Arctic cloud and radiation characteristics. J. Climate 9, 1731-1764. Dai, A., and I. Fung, 1993. Can climate variability contribute to the "missing" CO2 sink? Global Biogeochem. Cycles 7, 599-609. Dai, A., A.D. Del Genio, and I.Y. Fung, 1997. Clouds, precipitation, and temperature range. Nature 386, 665-666. Dansgaard, W., S.J. Johnsen, H.B. Clausen, D. Dahl-Jensen, N.S. Gundestrup, C.U. Hammer, C.S. Hvidberg, J.P. Steffensen, A.E. Sveinbjornsdottir, J. Jouzel, and G. Bond, 1993. Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record. Nature 364, 218-220. Davis, M.B., and C. Zabinski, 1992. Changes in geographical range resulting from greenhouse warming: Effects on biodiversity in forests. In Global Warming and Biological Diversity, R.L. Peters and T.E. Lovejoy (eds.), Yale University Press, New Haven, pp. 297-308. de la Mare, W., 1997. Abrupt mid-twentieth-century decline in Antactic sea-ice extent from whaling records. Nature 389, 57-60. Delworth, T., S. Manabe, and R.J. Stouffer, 1993. Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate 6, 1993-2011. de Ronde, J. G., 1993. What will happen to The Netherlands if sea level rise accelerates? In Climate and Sea Level Change: Observations, Projections and Implications, R.A. Warrick, E.M. Barrow, and T.M.L. Wigley (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 322-335. Deser, C., and M.L. Blackmon, 1993. Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-1989. J. Climate 6, 1743-1753. Deser, C., M.A. Alexander, and M.S. Timlin, 1996. Upper ocean thermal variations in the North Pacific during 1970-1991. J. Climate 9, 1840-1855. Deser, C., M.A. Alexander, and M.S. Timlin, in press. Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current extension from the 1970s to the 1980s. J. Climate. Dettinger, M.D., and D.R. Cayan, 1995. Large scale atmospheric forcing of recent trends towards early snowmelt runoff in California. J. Climate 8, 606-623. Dettinger, M.D., and M. Ghil, 1998. Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate. Tellus 50B, 1-24. Dettinger, M.D., D.R. Cayan, and G.J. McCabe, Jr., 1993. Decadal trends in runoff over the western United States and links to persistent North Pacific sea-surface-temperature and atmospheric-circulation patterns. In Proceedings of the 18th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., pp. 240-243. Dettinger, M.D., M. Ghil, and C.L. Keppenne, 1995. Interannual and interdecadal variability in United States surface-air temperatures, 1910-87. Clim. Change 31, 35-66. Diaz, H.F., and C.A. Anderson, 1995. Precipitation trends and water consumption related to population in the southwestern United States: A reassessment. Water Resour. Res. 31, 713-720. Diaz, H.F., and N.E. Graham, 1996. Recent changes in tropical freezing heights and the role of sea surface temperature. Nature 383, 152-155. Dickson, R.R., and J. Namias, 1976. North American influence on the circulation and climate of the North Atlantic sector. Mon. Wea. Rev. 104, 1255-1265. Dickson, R.R., J. Meincke, S.A. Maimberg, and A.J. Lee, 1988. The "Great Salinity Anomaly" in the northern North Atlantic 1968-1982. Prog. Oceanogr. 20, 103-151.

OCR for page 126
Page 129 Dickson, R., J. Lazier. J. Meincke, and P. Rhines, 1996. Long-term coordinated changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic. In Decadal Climate Variability: Dynamics and Predictability. D.L.T. Anderson and J. Willebrand (eds.). NATO ASI Series, Vol. 144, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 211-261. Dickson, R., J.R.N. Lazier, J. Meincke, P. Rhines, and J. Swift, 1997. Long-term coordinated changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic. Prog. Oceanogr. 38, 241-295. Dlugokencky, E.J., L.P. Steele, P.M. Lang, and K.A. Masarie, 1994. The growth rate and distribution of atmospheric methane. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 17021-17043. Dobson, G.M.B., 1966. Annual variation of ozone in Antarctica. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 92. 549-552. Douglas, B.C., 1991. Global sea level rise. J. Geophys. Res. 96, 6981-6992. Douglas, B.C., 1995. Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation. In Reviews of Geophysics, Supplement, U.S. National Report to the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics 1991-1994, pp. 1425-1432. Drake, B.G., 1992. A field study of the effects of elevated CO2 on ecosystem production. Water Air Soil Pollut. 64, 25-44. Druffel, E.R.M., 1987. Bomb radiocarbon in the Pacific: Annual and seasonal time scale variations. J. Mar. Res. 45, 667-698. Druffel, E.R.M., 1997. Pulses of rapid ventilation in the North Atlantic surface ocean during the past century. Science 275, 1454-1457. Druffel, E.R.M., and S. Griffin, 1993. Large variations of surface ocean radiocarbon: Evidence of circulation changes in the southwestern Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 20249-20259. Dugam. S.S., S.B. Kakade, and R.K. Verma, 1997. Interannual and long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 58, 21-29. Dunbar, R.B., G.M. Wellington, M.W. Colgan. and P.W. Glynn, 1994. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature since 1600 A.D.: The d18O record of climate variability in Galapagos corals. Paleoceanography 9, 291-316. Dutton, E.G., and J.R. Christy, 1992. Solar radiation forcing at selected locations and evidence for global cooling following the eruptions of E1 Chichón and Pinatubo. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 2313-2316. EIA, 1995. Household Energy Consumption and Expenditures 1993, Residential Energy Consumption Survey. Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy, DOE/EIA-0321(93). Elkins, J.W., T.M. Thompson, T.H. Swanson. J.H. Butler, B.D. Hall, S.O. Cummings, D.A. Fisher, and A.G. Raffo, 1993. Decrease in the growth rates of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12. Nature 364, 780-783. Elliot, W.P., J.K. Angell, and K.W. Thoning, 1991. Relationship of atmospheric CO2 to tropical sea and air temperatures and precipitation. Tellus 43B, 144-155. Emanuel, K., 1987. The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature 326, 483-485. Enfield, D.B., and D.A. Mayer, 1997. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to E1 Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 929-945. Epps, D.S., 1997. Weather impacts on energy activities in the U.S. Gulf Coast. In the proceedings of the Workshop on the Social and Economic Impacts of Weather, Boulder, Colorado, April 2-4, 1997, R.A. Pielke, Jr. (ed.), NCAR. Boulder, Colorado. Epstein, P.R., 1993. Algal blooms in the spread and persistence of cholera. Biosystems 31, 209-221. Esbensen, S., 1984. A comparison of intermonthly and interannual teleconnections in the 700mb geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 2016-2032. Etheridge, D.M., G.I. Pearman, and P.J. Fraser, 1992. Changes in tropospheric methane between 1841 and 1978 from a high accumulation rate Antarctic ice core. Tellus 44B, 282-294. Etheridge, D.M., L.P. Steele, R.L. Langenfelds, R.J. Francey, J.M. Barnola, and V.I. Morgan, 1996. Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 4115-4128. Fahrbach, E.R.M., G. Rohardt, M. Schroeder, and R.A. Woodgate, in press. Gradual warming of the Weddell Sea deep and bottom water. J. Geophys. Res. Fairbanks, R.G., and R.E. Dodge, 1979. Annual periodicity of the18O/16O and13C/12C ratios in the coral Montastrea annularis. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 43, 1009-1020. Farmer, G., T.M.L. Wigley, P.D. Jones, and M. Salmon, 1989. Documenting and explaining recent global-mean temperature changes. Final Report to NERC (Contract GR3/6565). Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, U.K., 141 pp. Ffield, A., and A.L. Gordon, 1996. Tidal mixing signatures in the Indonesian seas. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 26, 1924-1936. Fine, R.A., W.H. Peterson, and H.G. Ostlund, 1987. Penetration of tritium into the tropical Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 17. 553-564. Fiocco, G., D. Fua, and G. Visconti (eds.), 1996. The Mount Pinatubo Eruption: Effects on the Atmosphere and Climate. NATO ASI Series. Vol. I42, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 310 pp. Flohn, H., and A. Kapala, 1989. Changes in tropical sea-air interaction processes over a 30-year period. Nature 338, 244-246. Flohn, H., A. Kapala, H.R. Knoche, and H. Machel, 1990. Recent changes of the tropical water energy budget and of mid-latitude circulations. Climate Dyn. 4, 237-252. Folland, C.K., T.N. Palmer, and D.E. Parker, 1986. Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures 1901-85. Nature 320, 602-607. Folland, C.K., J. Owen, M.N. Ward, and A. Colman, 1991. Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods. J. Forecasting 10, 21-56. Frankignoul, C., and K. Hasselmann, 1977. Stochastic climate models. Part 2. Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability. Tellus 29, 284-305. Frenzel, B., C. Pfister, and B. Gläiser (eds.), 1994. Climate Trends and Anomalies in Europe, 1675-1715, G. Fisher Verlag, Stuttgart, 480 pp. Friedlingstein, P., I.Y. Fung, E. Holland, J. John, G. Brasseur, D. Erickson, and D. Schimel, 1995. On the contribution of CO2 fertilization to the missing biospheric sink. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 9. 541-556. Friis-Christensen, E., and K. Lassen, 1991. Length of the solar cycle: An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700. Fritts, H.C., 1976. Tree Rings and Climate. Academic Press. London, 567 pp. Fung, I., J. John, J. Lerner, E. Matthews, M. Prather, L.P. Steele, and P.J. Fraser, 1991. Three-dimensional model synthesis of the global methane cycle. J. Geophys. Res. 96, 13033-13065. Gagan, M.K., A.R. Chivas, and P.J. Isdale, 1994. High-resolution isotopic records from corals using ocean temperature and mass spawning chronometers. Earth Planet. Sci. 121, 549-558. Gagan, M.K., L.K. Ayliffe, D. Hopley, J.A. Cali, G.E. Mortimer, J. Chappell, M.T. McCulloch, and M.J. Head, 1998. Temperature and surface-ocean water balance of the mid-Holocene tropical western Pacific. Science 279, 1014-1018. Garzoli, S.L., G.J. Goni, A.J. Mariano, and D.B. Olson, 1997. Monitoring the upper southeastern Atlantic transports using altimeter data. J. Mar. Res. 55, 453-481. Gent, P.R., and J.C. McWilliams, 1990. Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 20, 150-155. Ghil, M., and S. Childress, 1987. Topics in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics: Atmospheric Dynamics, Dynamo Theory and Climate Dynamics, Springer-Verlag, New York, 485 pp. Ghil, M., and R. Vautard, 1991. Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in global temperature time series. Nature 350, 324-327. Gill, A.M., 1994. How fires affect biodiversity. In Fire and Biodiversity: The Effects and Effectiveness of Fire Management, Biodiversity Series, Paper No. 8., Dept. of the Environment, Sport, and Territories, Melbourne, Australia.

OCR for page 126
Page 130 Giorgi, F., and M.R. Marinucci, 1996. Improvements in the simulation of surface climatology over the European region with a nested modeling system. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 273-276. Glantz, M.H., 1994. The West African Sahel. In Drought Follows the Plough, M.H. Glantz (ed.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 197 pp. Glantz, M.H., 1996. Currents of Change: El Niño's Impact on Climate and Society, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 194 pp. Gleason, J.F., P.K. Bhartia, J.R. Herman, R. McPeters, P. Newman, R.S. Stolarski, L. Flynn, G. Labow, D. Larko, C. Seftor, C. Wellemeyer, W.D. Komhyr, A.J. Miller, and W. Planet, 1993. Record low global ozone in 1992. Science 260, 523-526. Gordon, A.L., and R.A. Fine, 1996. Pathways of water between the Pacific and Indian Oceans in the Indonesian Seas. Nature 379, 146-149. Gornitz, V., 1995. A comparison of differences between recent and late Holocene sea level trends from eastern North America and other selected regions. J. Coast. Res. 17, 287-297. Grace, J., J. Lloyd, J. McIntyre, A. Miranda, P. Meir, H. Miranda, C. Nobre, J. Moncrieff, J. Massheder, Y. Malhi, I. Wright, and J. Gash, 1995. Carbon dioxide uptake by an undisturbed tropical rainforest in southwest Amazonia, 1992 to 1993. Science 270, 778-780. Graham, N.E., 1994. Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Climate Dyn. 10, 135-162. Gray, W.M., 1979. Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. In Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, D.B. Shaw (ed.), Royal Meteorological Society, Bracknell, U.K., pp. 155-218. Gray, W.M., 1990. Strong association between West African rainfall and U.S. landfall of intense hurricanes. Science 249, 1251-1256. Gray, W.M., C.W. Landsea, P.W. Mielke, and K.J. Berry, 1992. Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. Wea. Forecasting 7, 440-455. Griffies, S.M., and K. Bryan, 1997. A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability. Climate Dyn. 13, 459-487. Groisman, P.Y., and D.R. Easterling, 1994. Variability and trends of total precipitation and snowfall over the United States and Canada. J. Climate 7, 184-205. Groisman, P.Y., T.R. Karl, and R.W. Knight, 1994a. Observed impact of snow cover on the heat balance and the rise of continental spring temperatures. Science 263, 198-200. Groisman, P.Y., T.R. Karl, R.W. Knight, and G.L. Stenchikov, 1994b. Changes of snow cover, temperature, and radiative heat balance over the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate 7, 1633-1656. Grootes, P.M., 1995. Ice cores as archives of decade-to-century-scale climate variability. In Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, D.G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M.M. Hall, T.R. Karl, E.S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L.D. Talley (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 544-554. Gruber, N., 1998. Anthropogenic CO2 in the Atlantic Ocean. Global Biogeochem. Cylces 12, 165-191. Gu, D., and S.G.H. Philander, 1997. Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics. Science 275, 805-807. Guilderson, T.P., and D.P. Schrag, 1998. Abrupt shift in subsurface temperature in the tropical Pacific associated with changes in E1 Niño. Science 281, 240-243. Günther, H., W. Rosenthal, M. Stawarz, J.C. Carretero, M. Gomez, I. Lozano, O.Serano, and M. Reistad, 1998. The wave climate of the Northeast Atlantic over the period 1955-1994: The WASA wave hindcast. Global Atmos. Ocean Sys. 6, 121-163. Haarsma, R.J., J.F.B. Mitchell, and C.A. Senior, 1993. Tropical disturbances in a GCM. Climate Dyn. 8, 247-257. Hakkinen, S., 1993. An Arctic source for the Great Salinity Anomaly: A simulation of the Arctic ice-ocean system for 1955-1975. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 16397-16410. Hall, N.M.J., B.J. Hoskins, P.J. Valdes, and C.A. Senior, 1994. Storm tracks in a high resolution GCM with doubled CO2. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 120, 1209-1230. Hall, M.M., M. McCartney, and J.A. Whitehead, 1997. Antarctic bottom water flux in the equatorial western Atlantic. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 27, 1903-1926. Hansen, D.V., and H.F. Bezdek, 1996. On the nature of decadal anomalies in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 8749-8758. Hansen, J., and A. Lacis, 1990. Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases: An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change. Nature 346, 713-719. Hansen, J., and S. Lebedeff, 1988. Global surface temperature through 1987. Geophys. Res. Lett. 15, 323-326. Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, and M. Sato, 1992. Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 215-218. Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and R. Reynolds, 1996. Global surface air temperature in 1995: Return to pre-Pinatubo level. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1665-1668. Hartmann, D.L., and F. Lo, 1998. Wave-driven zonal flow vacillation in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci. 55, 1303-1315. Hasselmann, K., 1976. Stochastic climate models: I. Theory. Tellus 28, 473-485. Hasselmann, K., 1993. Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time dependent climatic change. J. Climate 6, 1957-1971. Hastenrath, S., 1990. Decadal scale changes of the circulation in the tropical Atlantic sector associated with Sahel drought. Int. J. Climatol. 10, 459-472. Hastenrath, S., 1995. Recent advances in tropical climate prediction. J. Climate 8, 1519-1532. Hastenrath, S., and L. Druyan, 1993. Circulation anomaly mechanisms in the tropical Atlantic sector during the northeast Brazil rainy season: Results from the GISS general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 14917-14923. Hastenrath, S., and L. Greischar, 1993. Circulation mechanisms related to northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 5093-5102. Hastenrath, S., and L. Heller, 1977. Dynamics of climate hazards in northeast Brazil. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 103, 77-92. Hastenrath, S., and P.D. Kruss, 1992. The dramatic retreat of Mount Kenya's glaciers between 1963 and 1987: Greenhouse forcing. Ann. Glaciol. 16, 127-133. Hastenrath, S., L.C. Castro, and P. Acietuno, 1987. The Southern Oscillation in the tropical Atlantic sector. Contrib. Atmos. Phys. 60, 447-463. Hayden, B.P., 1981. Secular variation in Atlantic coast extratropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev. 109, 159-167. Hays, J.D., J. Imbrie, and N.J. Shackleton, 1976. Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the ice ages. Science 194, 1121-1132. Hebert, P.J., J.D. Jarrell, and M. Mayfield, 1996. The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes of this Century (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts). NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC-31 (February), National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, Florida. Herbert, T.D., 1997. A long marine history of carbon cycle modulation by orbital-climatic changes. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 94, 8362-8369. Hewitson, B.C., and R.G. Crane, 1996. Climate downscaling techniques and applications. Climate Res. 7, 85-95. Hirst, A.C. 1986. Unstable and damped equatorial modes in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J. Atmos. Sci. 43, 606-630. Hirst, A.C., D.R. Jackett, and T.J. McDougall, 1996. The meridional overturning cells of an ocean model in neutral density co-ordinates. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 26, 775-791. Hodell, D.A., J.H. Curtis, and M. Brenner, 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of the Classic Maya civilization. Nature 375, 391-394. Hofmann, D.J., 1990. Increase in stratospheric background sulfuric acid aerosol mass in the past 10 years. Science 248, 996-1000. Hofmann, D.J., S.J. Oltmans, J.A. Lathrop, J.M. Harriss, and H. Vömel,

OCR for page 126
Page 131 1994. Record low ozone at the South Pole in the spring of 1993. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 421-424. Hood, L.L,. and J.P. McCormack, 1992. Components of interannual ozone change based on Nimbus 7 TOMS data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 2309-2312. Horel, J.D., and C.R. Mechoso, 1988. Observed and simulated intraseasonal variability of the wintertime planetary circulation. J. Climate 1, 582-599. Hoskins, B.J., 1983. Feedback of the transient midlatitude, synoptic time-scale waves onto the longer time-scale flow. In Workshop on Intercomparison of Large-Scale Models Used for Extended-Range Forecasts, Proceedings., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, U.K., pp. 53-61. Hoskins, B., and D.J. Karoly, 1981. The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci. 38, 1179-1196. Houghton, R.A., 1993. Is carbon accumulating in the northern temperate zone? Global Biogeochem. Cycles 7, 611-617. Houghton, R.W., and Y. Tourre, 1992. Characteristics of low frequency sea surface temperature fluctuations in the tropical Atlantic. J. Climate 5, 765-771. Houghton, R.A., R.D. Boone, J.R. Fruci, J.E. Hobbie, J.M. Melillo, C.A. Palm, B.J. Peterson, G.R. Shaver, and G.M. Woodwell, 1987. The flux of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in 1980 due to changes in land use: Geographic distribution of the flux. Tellus 39B, 122-139. Houghton, R.A., E.A. Davidson, and G.M. Woodwell, 1998. Missing sinks, feedbacks, and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon balance. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 12, 25-34. Hoyt, D.V., and K.H. Schatten, 1993. A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 18895-18906. Huang, J., K. Higuchi, and A. Shabbar, 1998. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 2707-2710. Hughen, K.A., J.T. Overpeck, L.C. Peterson, and S. Trumbore, 1996. Rapid climate changes in the tropical Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Nature 380, 51-54. Hughes, M.K., and H.F. Diaz, 1994. Was there a Medieval Warm Period, and if so, where and when? Clim. Change 26, 109-142. Hughes, M.K. and L.J. Graumlich, 1996. Multimillennial dendroclimatic studies from the western United States. In Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, P.D. Jones, R.S. Bradley, and J. Jouzel (eds.), Springer-Verlag, NATO ASI Series, Vol. I41, Heidelberg, pp. 109-123. Hulme, M., Y. Biot, J. Borton, M. Buchanan-Smith, S. Davies, C. Folland, N. Nicholds, D. Seddon, and N. Ward, 1992. Seasonal rainfall forecasting for Africa. Part I: Current status and future developments. Int. J. Environ. Stud. 39, 245-256. Huntley, B., 1988. Europe. In Vegetation History, B. Huntley and T. Webb III (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 341-383. Hurrell, J.W., 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperature and precipitation. Science 269, 676-679. Hurrell, J., 1996. Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 665-668. Hurrell, J.W., and K.E. Trenberth, 1996. Satellite vs. surface estimates of air temperature since 1979. J. Climate 9, 2222-2232. Hurrell, J.W., and H. van Loon, 1996. Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim. Change 36, 301-326. Imbrie, J., J.D. Hays, D. Martinson, A. McIntyre, A. Mix, J. Morley, N. Pisias, W. Prell, and N.J. Shackleton, 1984. The orbital theory of Pleistocene climate: Support from a revised chronology of the marine d18O record. In Milankovitch and Climate. Part 1, A.L. Berger et al. (eds.), D. Reidel, Boston, pp. 269-305. Imbrie, J., E. Boyle, S. Clemens, A. Duffy, W. Howard, G. Kukla, J. Kutzbach, D. Martinson, A. McIntyre, A. Mix, B. Molfino, J. Morley, L. Peterson, N. Pisias, W. Prell, M. Raymo, N. Shackleton, and J. Toggweiler, 1992. On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles: 1. Linear responses to Milankovich forcing. Paleoceanography 7, 701-738. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 1990. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums, WMO/UNEP, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 364 pp. IPCC, 1992. Climate Change 1992: The IPCC Supplementary Report, WMO/UNEP, J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander, and S.K. Varney (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 200 pp. IPCC, 1995. Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios, J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, H. Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris, and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 339 pp. IPCC, 1996a. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 572 pp. IPCC, 1996b. Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analysis, Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, R.T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera, R.H. Moss, and D.J. Dokken (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 878 pp. IPCC, 1996c. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.P. Bruce, H. Lee, and E.F. Haites (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 448 pp. IPCC, 1998. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. A Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II, R.T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera, R.H. Moss, and D.J. Dokken (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 517 pp. Isdale, P., 1984. Fluorescent bands in massive corals record centuries of coastal rainfall. Nature 310, 578-579. Iselin, C.D., 1939. Some physical factors which may influence the productivity of New England's coastal waters. J. Mar. Res. 2, 74-85. Jacobs, G.A., H.E. Hurlburt, J.C. Kindle, E.J. Metzger, J.L. Mitchell, W.J. Teague, and A.J. Wallcraft, 1994. Decade-scale trans-Pacific propagation and warming effects of an El Niño anomaly. Nature 370, 360-363. Jacoby, G.C., and R.D. D'Arrigo, 1989. Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America. Clim. Change 14, 39-59. Jacoby, G.C., R.D. D'Arrigo, and T. Davaajamts, 1996. Mongolian treerings and 20th century warming. Science 273, 771-773. Jain, S., U. Lall, and M. Mann, in press. Seasonality and interannual variations of Northern Hemisphere temperature: Equator to pole gradient and ocean-land contrast. J. Climate. James, I.N., and P.M. James, 1989. Ultra-low-frequency variability in a simple atmospheric circulation model. Nature 342, 53-55. Jenkins, W.J., 1998. Studying subtropical thermocline ventilation and circulation using tritium and3He. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 15817-15831. Ji, M., A. Kumar, and A. Leetma, 1994. A multi-season climate forecast system at the National Meteorological Center. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 75, 569-577. Jiang, N., J.D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, 1995. Quasi-quadrennial and quasibiennial variability in the equatorial Pacific. Climate Dyn. 12, 101-112. Jin, F.-F., J.D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, 1994. El Niño on the Devil's Staircase: Annual subharmonic steps to chaos. Science 264, 70-72. Jin, F.-F., J.D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, 1996. E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: Subharmonic frequency-locking and aperiodicity.

OCR for page 126
Page 132 Physica D 98, 442-465. Johannessen, O.M., M. Miles, and E. Bjorgo, 1995. Decreases in Arctic sea ice extent and area 1978-1994. Nature 376, 126-127. Johnson, G.C., and A.H. Orsi, 1997. Southwest Pacific Ocean water-mass changes between 1968/9 and 1990/1. J. Climate 10, 306-316. Johnston, P.V., R.L. McKenzie, J.G. Keys, and W.A. Matthews, 1992. Observations of depleted stratospheric NO2 following the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 211-213. Jones, P.D., 1988. Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: Recent trends and an update to 1987. J. Climate 1, 654-660. Jones, P.D., and R.S. Bradley, 1992. Climatic variations over the last 500 years. In Climate Since AD 1500, R.S. Bradley and P.D. Jones (eds.), Routledge, London, pp. 649-665. Jones, P.D., and K.R. Briffa, 1992. Global surface air temperature variations during the twentieth century. Holocene 2, 165-179. Jones, P.D., S.C.B. Raper, R.S. Bradley, H.F. Diaz, P.M. Kelly, and T.M.L. Wigley, 1986a. Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations, 1851-1984. J. Clim. Appl. Meteor. 25, 161-179. Jones, P.D., T.M.L. Wigley, and P.B. Wright, 1986b. Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984. Nature 322, 430-434. Jouzel, J., N.I. Barkov, and J.M. Barnola, 1993. Extending the Vostok ice-core record of paleoclimate to the penultimate glacial period. Nature 364. 407-410. Joyce, T.M., and P. Robbins, 1996. The long-term hydrographic record at Bermuda. J. Climate 9, 3121-3131. Kalnay. E., M. Kanamitsu, and R. Kistler, 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanaylsis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77, 437-471. Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan, in press. Analyses of global sea surface temperature, 1856-1991. J. Geophys. Res. Kapsner, W.R., R.B. Alley, C.A. Shuman, S. Anandakrishnan, and P.M. Grootes, 1995. Dominant influence of atmospheric circulation on snow accumulation in Greenland over the past 18,000 years. Nature 373, 52-54. Karl, T.R., V.E. Derr, D.R. Easterling, C.K. Folland, D.H. Hofmann, S. Levitus, N. Nicholls, D.E. Parker, and G.W. Withee, 1995. Critical issues for long-term climate monitoring. Clim. Change 31, 185-221. Karl, T.R., R.W. Knight, D.R. Easterling, and R.G. Quayles, 1996. Indices of climate change for the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77, 279-292. Kaser, G., and B. Noggler, 1991. Observations on Speke Glacier, Ruwenzori Range, Uganda. J. Glaciol. 37, 315-318. Kates, R.W., B.L. Turner II, and W.C. Clark, 1990. The great transformation. In The Earth as Transformed by Human Action, B.L. Turner II, W.C. Clark, R.W. Kates, J.F. Richards, J.T. Mathews, and W.B. Meyer (eds.), Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, U.K., pp. 1-17. Kawasaki, T., S. Tanaka, Y. Toba, and A. Taniguchi (eds.), 1991. Long-Term Variability of Pelagic Fish Populations and Their Environment, Pergamon Press, Tokyo, 402 pp. Keables, M.J., 1989. A synoptic climatology of the bimodal precipitation distribution in the upper Midwest. J. Climate 2, 1289-1294. Keeling, R.F., and T.-H. Peng, 1995. Transport of heat, CO2, and O2 by the Atlantic's thermohaline circulation. Phil. Trans. Roy.. Soc. London B 348, 133-142. Keeling, C.D., and T.P. Whorf, 1994. Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network. In Trends '93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, T.A. Boden, D.P. Kaiser, R.J. Sepanski and F.W. Stoss (eds.). ORNL/CDIAC-65, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, pp. 16-26. Keeling, C.D., R.B. Bacastow, A.E. Bainbridge, C.E. Ekdahl, Jr., P.R. Guenther, L.S. Waterman, and J.F.S. Chin, 1976. Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Tellus 28, 538-551. Keeling, C.D., R.B. Bacastow, A.F. Carter, S.C. Piper, T.P. Whorf, M. Heimann, W.G. Mook, and H. Roeloffzen, 1989. A three-dimensional model of atmospheric CO2 transport based on observed winds: 1. Analysis of observational data. In Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas, D.H. Peterson (ed.), Geophysical Monograph 55, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 165-236. Keeling, C.D., T.P. Whorf, M. Wahlen, and J. van der Plicht, 1995. Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980. Nature 375, 666-670. Keeling, C.D., J.F.S. Chin and T.P. Whorf, 1996a. Increased activity of northern vegetation inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements. Nature 382, 146-149. Keeling, R.F., S.C. Piper, and M. Heimann, 1996b. Global and hemispheric CO2 sinks deduced from changes in atmospheric O2 concentration. Nature 381, 218-221. Kelly, P.M., and T.M.L. Wigley, 1992. Solar cycle length, greenhouse forcing and global climate. Nature 360, 328-330. Kimoto, M., 1989. Multiple Flow Regimes in the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Ph.D. thesis, University of California, Los Angeles, Calif., 210 pp. Kinne, S., O.B. Toon, and M.J. Prather, 1992. Buffering of stratospheric circulation by changing amounts of tropical ozone: A Pinatubo case study. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 1927-1930. Knox, F., and M.B. McElroy, 1984. Changes in atmospheric CO2: Influence of marine biota at high latitudes. J. Geophys. Res. 89, 4629-4637. Knutson, T., and S. Manabe, 1995. Time-mean response over the tropical Pacific to increased CO2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate 8, 2181-2199. Knutson, T., and S. Manabe, in press. Model assessment of decadal variability and trends in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate. Knutson, T. R., S. Manabe, and D. Gu, 1997. Simulated ENSO in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model: Multidecadal amplitude modulation and CO2 sensitivity. J. Climate 10, 138-161. Koike, M., N.B. Jones, W.A. Mathews, P.V. Johnston, R.L. McKenzie, D. Kinnison, and J. Rodriguez, 1994. Impact of Pinatubo aerosols on the partitioning between NO2 and HNO3. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21. 597-600. Komhyr, W.D., R.D. Grass, R.D. Evans, R.K. Leonard, D.M. Quincy, D.J. Hofmann, and G.L. Koenig, 1993. Unprecedented ozone decrease over the United States from Dobson spectrophotometer observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21. 201-204. Krupa, S.V., and J.-J. Jager, 1996. Adverse effects of elevated levels of ultraviolet (UV)-B radiation and ozone (O3) on crop growth and productivity. In Global Climate Change and Agricultural Production, F. Bazzaz and W. Sombroek (eds.), Wiley Publishers, Chichester, U.K., pp. 141-170. Kumar, A., A. Leetmaa, and M. Ji, 1994. Simulations of atmospheric variability induced by sea surface temperatures and implications for global warming. Science 266, 632-634. Kunkel, K.E., S.A. Changnon, and J.R. Angel, 1994. Climatic aspects of the 1993 upper Mississippi River Basin flood. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 75, 811-822. Kushnir, Y., 1994. Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions. J. Climate 7, 141-157. Kushnir, Y., and I.M. Held, 1996. Equilibrium atmospheric response to the North Atlantic SST anomalies. J. Climate 9, 1208-1220. Kushnir, Y., and J.M. Wallace. 1989. Low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter: Geographical distribution, structure and time-scale dependence. J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 3122-3142. Kushnir, Y., V.J. Cardone, J.G. Greenwood, and M. Cane, 1997. On the recent increase in North Atlantic wave heights. J. Climate 10, 2107-2113. Kushnir, Y., B. Rajagopalan, and Y.M. Tourre, 1998. Decadal climate variability in the Atlantic Basin. Ninth Conference on the Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere, Phoenix, AZ, 11-16 January 1998, American Meteorological Society, 58-61. Kusler, J.A., W.J. Mitsch, and J.S. Larson, 1994. Wetlands. Sci. Amer. 270,

OCR for page 126
Page 133 64-70. Kutzbach, J.E., and F.A. Street-Perrott, 1985. Milankovitch forcing of fluctuations in the level of tropical lakes from 18 to 0 kyr BP. Nature 317, 130-134. Kutzbach, J., R. Gallimore, S. Harrison, P. Behling, R. Selin, and F. Laarif, 1998. Climate and biome simulations for the past 21,000 years. Quat. Sci. Rev. 17, 473-506. Labitzke, K., and M.P. McCormick, 1992. Stratospheric temperature increases due to Pinatubo aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 207-210. Labitzke, K., and B. Naujokat, 1983. On the variability and on trends of the temperature in the middle stratosphere. Contrib. Atmos. Phys. 56, 495-507. Labitzke, K., and H. van Loon, 1993. Some recent studies of probable connections between solar and atmospheric variability. Ann. Geophys. 11, 1084-1094. Labitzke, K., B. Naujokat, and M.P. McCormick, 1983. Temperature effects on the stratosphere of the April 4, 1982, eruption of E1 Chichón, Mexico. Geophys. Res. Lett. 10, 24-26. Lachenbruch, A.H., and B.V. Marshall, 1986. Changing climate: Geothermal evidence from permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic. Science 234, 689-696. Lacis, A., J. Hansen. and M. Sato, 1992. Climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 1607-1610. Laird, K.R., S.C. Fritz, K.A. Maasch, and B.F. Cumming, 1996. Greater drought intensity and frequency before AD 1200 in the northern Great Plains, USA. Nature 384, 552-554. Lall, U., and M. Mann, 1995. The Great Salt Lake: A barometer of low frequency climatic variability. Water Resour. Res. 31, 2503-2515. Lall. U., Sangoyomi, T., and H.D.I. Abarbanel, 1996. Nonlinear dynamics of the Great Salt Lake: Nonparametric short-term forecasting. Water Resour. Res. 32, 975-985. Lall, U., B. Rajagopalan, and M. Cane, 1998. Nonstationarity in ENSO and its teleconnections: An exploratory analysis and a nonlinear dynamics perspective. In Proceedings of the PACLIM 98 Workshop on Climate Variability of the Eastern North Pacific and Western North America. Lamb, H.H., 1972. Climate: Present, Past & Future, vols. I & II, Methuen & Co., London. Lamb, P.J., 1978. Large-scale tropical Atlantic circulation patterns associated with sub-Saharan weather anomalies. Tellus 30, 240-251. Lamb, H.H., 1995. Climate, History and the Modern World, Routledge, London, 433 pp. Lamb, P. J., R.A. Peppier, and S. Hastenrath, 1986. Interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic. Nature 322, 238-240. Landsea, C.W., and W.M. Gray, 1992. The strong association between Western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense Atlantic hurricanes. J. Climate 5, 435-453. Landsea, C.W., N. Nicholls, W.M. Gray, and L.A. Avila, 1996. Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1697-1700. Latif, M., 1998. Dynamics of interdecadal variability in coupled oceanatmosphere models. J. Climate 11, 602-624. Latif, M., and T.P. Barnett, 1994. Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific/North American sector. Science 266, 634-637. Latif, M., and T.P. Barnett, 1996. Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics and predictability. J. Climate 9, 2407-2423. Latif, M., A. Grötzner, M. Münnich, E. Maier-Reimer, S. Venzke, and T.P. Barnett, 1996. A mechanism for decadal climate variability. In Decadal Climate Variability: Dynamics and Predictability. D.L.T. Anderson and J. Willebrand (eds.), NATO ASI Series, Vol. I44, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 263-292. Latif, M., D. Anderson, T. Barnett, M. Cane, R. Kleeman, A. Leetmaa, J.J. O'Brien, A. Rosati, and E. Schneider, 1998. A review of predictability and prediction of ENSO. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 14375-14393. Lau, N.-C., 1988. Variability of the observed midlatitude storm tracks in relation to low frequency changes in the circulation pattern. J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 2718-2743. Lau, N.-C., and M.J. Nath, 1991. Variability of the baroclinic and barotropic transient eddy forcing associated with monthly changes in the midlatitude storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 48, 2589-2613. Lau, N.-C., and M.J. Nath, 1996. The role of the ''atmospheric bridge'' in linking tropical Pacific ENSO events to extratropical SST anomalies. J. Climate 9, 2036-2057. Lazier, J.R., 1988. Temperature and salinity changes in the deep Labrador Sea, 1962-1986. Deep-Sea Res. 18, 1247-1253. Lazier, J.R., 1995. The salinity decrease in the Labrador Sea over the past thirty years. In Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, D.G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M.M. Hall, T.R. Karl, E.S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L.D. Talley (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 295-302. Lea, D.W., E.A. Boyle, and G.T. Shen, 1989. Coralline barium records temporal variability in equatorial Pacific upwelling. Nature 340, 373-376. Lean, J., 1991. Variations in the sun's radiative output. Rev. Geophys. 29, 505-535. Lean, J., A. Skumanich, and O. White, 1992. Estimating the sun's radiative output during the Maunder minimum. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 1591-1594. Lean, J., J. Beer, and R. Bradley, 1995. Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 3195-3198. Legras, B., and M. Ghil, 1985. Persistent anomalies, blocking and variations in atmospheric predictability. J. Atmos. Sci. 42, 433-471. Leurs, J., and R.E. Eskridge, 1995. Temperature corrections for the VIZ and Vaisala Radiosondes. J. Appl. Meteor. 34, 1241-1253. Levins, R., T. Awerbuch, U. Brinckmann, I. Eckhardt, P. Epstein, N. Makhoul, C. Albuquerque de Passos, C. Puccia, A. Spielman, and M. Wilson, 1994. The emergence of new diseases. Am. Sci. 82, 52-60. Levitus, S., 1989. Interpentadal variability of temperature and salinity at intermediate depths of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1970-74 versus 1955-59. J. Geophys. Res. 94, 6091-6131. Levitus, S., and T.P. Boyer, 1994. World Ocean Atlas 1994, vol. 4: Temperature. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 4. 117 pp. Levitus, S., R. Burgett. and T.P. Boyer, 1994. World Ocean Atlas 1994, vol. 3: Salinity. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 3.99 pp. Lighthill, J., G.J. Holland, W.M. Gray, C. Landsea, K. Emanuel, G. Craig, J. Evans, Y. Kunihara, and C.P. Guard, 1994. Global climate change and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 75, 2147-2157. Lindzen, R.S., 1996. The importance and nature of the water vapor budget in nature and models. In Climate Sensitivity to Radiative Perturbations, H. Le Treut (ed.). NATO ASI Series, Vol. I34, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 51-66. Linsley, B.K., R.B. Dunbar, G.M. Wellington, and D.A. Mucciarone, 1994. A coral-based reconstruction of Intertropical Convergence Zone variability over Central America since 1707. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 9977-9994. Liu, A., S.G.H. Philander, and R.C. Pacanowski, 1994. A GCM study of tropical-subtropical upper-ocean water exchange. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 24, 2606-2623. Loevinsohn, M.E., 1994. Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda. The Lancet 343, 714-718. Lorenz, E.N., 1963. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130-141. Lorenz, E.N., 1967. Nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere. WMO Bull. 16, 74-78. Lorenz, E.N., 1969. Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J. Atmos. Sci. 26, 636-646. Lorenz, E.N., 1982. Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus 34, 505-513. Lorenz, E.N., 1990. Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability? Tellus 42A, 378-389. Lott, N., 1993. The Big One! A Review of the March 12-14, 1993 "Storm of

OCR for page 126
Page 134 the Century," Special Report TR 93-01, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C. Lough, J.M., D.J. Barnes, and R.B. Taylor, 1996. The potential of massive corals for the study of high-resolution climate variation of the past millennium. In Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, P.D. Jones, R.S. Bradley, and J. Jouzel (eds.), NATO ASI Series, Vol. I41, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 355-372. Lysne, J., P. Chang, and B. Geise, 1998. Impact of the extratropical Pacific on equatorial variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 2589-2592. MacAyeal, D.R., 1994. Binge/purge oscillations of the Laurentide ice sheet, a cause of the North Atlantic's Heinrich Events. Paleoceanography 8, 775-784. Madole, R.F., 1994. Stratigraphic evidence of desertification in the west-central Great Plains within the past 1000 yr. Geology 22, 483-486. Madole, R.F., 1995. Spatial and temporal patterns of late Quaternary eolian deposition, eastern Colorado, U.S.A. Quat. Sci. Rev. 14, 155-177. Magalhaes, A., and P. Magee, 1994. The Brazilian Nordeste. In Drought Follows the Plough, M. Glantz (ed.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 59-76. Maier-Reimer, E., U. Mikolajewicz, and A. Winguth, 1996. Future ocean uptake of CO2: Interaction between ocean circulation and biology. Climate Dyn. 12, 711-721. Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer, 1988. Two stable equilibria of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate 1, 841-866. Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer, 1994. Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. J. Climate 7, 5-23. Manabe, S., and R. J. Stouffer, 1996. Low-frequency variability of surface air temperature in a 1,000 year integration of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model. J. Climate 9, 376-393. Manabe, S., and R.T. Wetherald, 1975. The effect of doubling CO2 concentration on the climate of a GCM. J. Atmos. Sci. 32, 3-15. Mann, M.E., and J. Park, 1996. Greenhouse warming and changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature: Model versus observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1111-1114. Mann, M., U. Lall and B. Saltzman, 1995a. Decadal-to-century scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 937-940. Mann, M.E., J. Park, and R.S. Bradley, 1995b. Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries. Nature 378, 266-270. Mann, M.E., R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes, 1998. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392, 779-787. Mantua, N.J., and D.S. Battisti, 1994. Evidence for the delayed oscillator mechanism for ENSO: The "observed" oceanic Kelvin mode in the far western Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 24, 691-699. Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis, 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 78, 1069-1079. Mao, J., and A. Robock, 1998. Surface air temperature simulations by AMIP General Circulation Models: Volcanic and ENSO Signals and Systematic Errors. J. Climate 11, 1538-1552. Markham, C.G., and D.R. McLain, 1977. Sea surface temperature related to rain in Ceara, northeastern Brazil. Nature 265, 320-323. Marland, G., R.J. Andres, and T.A. Boden, 1994. Global, regional, and national CO2 emissions. In Trends '93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, T.A. Boden, D.P. Kaiser, R.J. Sepanski, and F.W. Stoss (eds.), ORNL/CDIAC-65, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, pp. 505-584. Maslanik, J.A., M.C. Serreze, and R.G. Barry, 1996. Recent decreases in Arctic summer ice cover and linkages to atmospheric circulation and anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1677-1680. Mass, C.F., and D.A. Portman, 1989. Major volcanic eruptions and climate: A critical evaluation. J. Climate 2, 566-593. Maykut, G.A., and N. Untersteiner, 1971. Some results from a time-dependent thermodynamic model of sea ice. J. Geophys. Res. 76, 1550-1575. McCartney, M.S., R.G. Curry, and H.F. Bezdek, 1997. The interdecadal warming and cooling of Labrador Sea Water. ACCP Notes IV, 1-11. McCormick, M.P., P.-H. Wang, and L.R. Poole, 1993. Stratospheric aerosols and clouds. In Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions, P.V. Hobbs (ed.), Int. Geophys. Ser. 54, Academic Press, San Diego, pp. 205-222. McCreary, J., and P. Lu, 1994. On the interaction between the subtropical and equatorial ocean circulations: The subtropical cell. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 24, 466-497. McGuffie, K., and A. Henderson-Sellers, 1988. Is Canadian cloudiness increasing? Atmos.-Ocean 26, 608-633. McIntyre, A., and B. Molfino, 1996. Forcing of Atlantic equatorial and subpolar millennial cycles by precession. Science 274, 1867-1870. McKibben, B., 1995. An explosion of green, Atlantic Monthly, April, 61-83. McLaughlin, F.A., E.C. Carmack, R.W. Macdonald, and J.K. Bishop, 1996. Physical and geochemical properties across the Atlantic/Pacific water mass front in the southern Canadian basin. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 1183-1195. McPhee, M.G., T.P. Stanton, J.H. Morison, and D.G. Martinson, 1998. Freshening of the upper ocean in the Central Arctic: Is perennial sea ice disappearing? Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1729-1732 Mechoso, C.R., S.W. Lyons, and J.A. Spahr, 1990. The impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on the rainfall over northeast Brazil. J. Climate 3, 812-826. Meehl, G.A., and W.M. Washington, 1995. Cloud albedo feedback and the super greenhouse effect in a global coupled GCM. Climate Dyn. 11, 399-411. Meehl, G.A., and W.M. Washington, 1996. E1 Niño-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nature 382, 56-60. Meese, D.A., A.J. Gow, and G.A. Zielinski, 1994. The accumulation record from the GISP2 core as an indicator of climate change throughout the Holocene. Science 266, 1680-1682. Mehta, V.M., and T. Delworth, 1995. Decadal variability of the tropical Atlantic ocean surface temperature in shipboard measurements and in a global ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate 8, 172-190. Meko, D., E.R. Cook, D.W. Stahle, C.W. Stockton, and M.K. Hughes, 1993. Spatial patterns of tree-growth anomalies in the United States and southeastern Canada. J. Climate 6, 1773-1786. Melillo, J.M., 1995. Human influences on the global nitrogen budget and their implications for the global carbon budget. In Toward Global Planning of Sustainable Use of the Earth: Development of Global Eco-Engineering, S. Mural and M. Kimura (eds.), Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 117-134. Mikolajewicz, U., and E. Maier-Reimer, 1990. Internal secular variability in an ocean general circulation model. Climate Dyn. 4, 145-156. Mikolajewicz, U., T.J. Crowley, A. Schiller, and R. Voss, 1997. Modelling teleconnections between the North Atlantic and North Pacific during the Younger Dryas. Nature 387, 384-387. Minnis, P., E.F. Harrison, L.L. Stowe, G.G. Gibson, F.M. Denn, D.R. Doelling, and W.L. Smith, Jr., 1993. Radiative climate forcing by the Mount Pinatubo eruption. Science 259, 1411-1415. Minobe, S., 1997. Climate variability with periodicity 50-70 years over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 683-686. Mitchell, J.M., Jr., 1976. An overview of climatic variability and its causal mechanisms. Quat. Res. 6, 481-493. Mitchell, J.M., Jr., C.W. Stockton, and D.M. Meko, 1979. Evidence of a 22-year rhythm of drought in the western United States related to the Hale solar cycle since the 17th century. In Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, B.M. McCormac and T.A. Seliga (eds.), D. Reidel Publishing Co., Dordrecht, Holland, 125-144. Mitchell, J.F.B., T.C. Johns, J.M. Gregory, and S.F.B. Tett, 1995. Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. Nature 376, 501-504. Mitsuguchi, T., E. Matsumoto, O. Abe, T. Uchida, and P.J. Isdale, 1996.

OCR for page 126
Page 135 Mg/Ca thermometry in coral skeletons. Science 274, 961-963. Moisan, J.R., and P.P. Niiler, 1998. The seasonal heat budget of the North Pacific: Net heat flux and heat storage rates (1950-1990). J. Phys. Oceanogr. 28, 401-421. Molinari, R.B., D. Mayer, J. Festa, and H. Bezdek, 1997. Multi-year variability in the near surface temperature structure of the midlatitude western North Atlantic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 3267-3278. Moon, Y., 1995. Large-scale Atmospheric Variability and the Great Salt Lake. Ph.D. dissertation, Utah State University, Logan, 154 pp. Moon, Y., and U. Lall, 1996. Large scale atmospheric indices and the Great Salt Lake: Interannual and interdecadal variability. J. Hydrol. Eng. 1, 55-62. Mooney, H.A., B.G. Drake, R.J. Luxmoore, W.C. Oechel, and L.F. Pitelka, 1991. Predicting ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 concentrations. BioScience 41, 96-104. Montzka, S.A., J.H. Butler, R.C. Myers, T.M. Thompson, T.H. Swanson, A.D. Clarke, L.T. Lock, J.W. Elkins, 1996. Decline in the tropospheric abundance of halogen from halocarbons: Implications for stratospheric ozone depletion. Science 272, 1318-1322. Morison, J.H., M. Steele, R. Andersen, 1998. Hydrography of the upper Arctic Ocean measured from the nuclear submarine USS Pargo. Deep-Sea Res. I 45, 15-38. Moritz, R.E., and D.K. Perovich (eds.), 1996. Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean Science Plan, ARCSS/OAII Report Number 5, University of Washington, Seattle, 64 pp. Moron, V., R. Vautard, and M. Ghil, 1998. Trends, interdecadal and interannual oscillations in global sea-surface temperatures. Climate. Dyn. 14, 545-569. Mosley-Thompson, E., J. Dai, L.G. Thompson, P.M. Grootes, J.K. Arbogast, and J.F. Paskievitch, 1991. Glaciological studies at Siple Station (Antarctica): Potential ice-core paleoclimatic record. J. Glaciol. 37, 11-22. Moulin, C., C.E. Lambert, F. Dulac, and U. Dayan, 1997. Control of atmosphere export of dust from North Africa by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nature 387, 691-694. Moura, A.D, 1994. Prospects for seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction and applications for sustainable development. World Meteor. Soc. Bull. 43, 207-215. Moura, A., and J. Shukla, 1981. On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci. 38, 2653-2675. Muhs, D.R., and Maat, P.B., 1993. The potential response of eolian sands to greenhouse warming and precipitation reduction on the Great Plains of the United States. J. Arid Environ. 25, 351-361. Munnich, M., M.A. Cane, and S.E. Zebiak, 1991. A study of self-excited oscillations of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system. II. Nonlinear cases. J. Atmos. Sci. 48, 1238-1248. Myneni, R.B., C.D. Keeling, C.J. Tucker, G. Asrar, and R.R. Nemani, 1997. Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386, 698-702. Mysak, L.A., 1986. E1 Niño, interannual variability and fisheries in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Canad. J. Aquat. Sci. 43, 464-497. Mysak, L.A., D.K. Manak, and R.F. Marsden, 1990. Sea ice anomalies in the Greenland and Labrador Seas during 1901-1984 and their relation to an interdecadal Arctic climate cycle. Climate Dyn. 5, 111-133. Najjar, R., 1992. Marine biogeochemistry. In Climate System Modeling, K.E. Trenberth (ed.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 241-282. Nakazawa, T., T. Machida, M. Tanaka, Y. Fujii, S. Aoki, and O. Watanabe, 1993. Differences of the atmospheric CH4 concentration between the Arctic and Antarctic regions in pre-industrial/agricultural era. Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 943-947. Namias, J., 1968. Long-range weather forecasting: History, current status, and outlook. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 49, 438-470. NAPAP, 1991. National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program, 1990 Integrated Assessment Report. NAPAP, Washington, D.C., 520 pp. Neelin, J.D., and H.A. Dijkstra, 1995. Ocean-atmosphere interaction and the tropical climatology. Part I: The dangers of flux correction. J. Climate 8, 1325-1342. Nesme-Ribes, E., E.N. Ferreira, R. Sadourny, H. Le Treut, and Z.X. Li, 1993. Solar dynamics and its impact on solar irradiance and the terrestrial climate. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 18923-18935. Nicholls, N., 1985. Southern Oscillation and Indonesian sea surface temperature. Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 424-432. Nicholls, R.J., and S.P. Leatherman, 1994. Global sea-level rise. In As Climate Changes: Potential Impacts and Implications, K. Strzepek and J.B. Smith (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 92-123. Nicholson, S.E., 1989. Long-term changes in African rainfall. Weather 44, 46-56. Nitta, T., and S. Yamada, 1989. Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 67, 1557-1583. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), 1995. CPC-Stratosphere: Northern Hemisphere Winter Summary - 1994-1995, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Prediction Center. NOAA, 1996. Northern Hemisphere Winter Summary - 1995-96. Selected Indicators of Stratospheric Climate, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Prediction Center. NOAA, 1997. Northern Hemisphere Winter Summary - 1996-97. Selected Indicators of Stratospheric Climate, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Prediction Center. Nobre, P., and J. Shukla, 1996. Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J. Climate 9, 2464-2479. Norris, J., and C. Leovy, 1994. Interannual variability in stratiform cloudiness and sea surface temperature. J. Climate 7, 1915-1925. Noss, R., and Cooperrider, A., 1994. Saving Nature's Legacy: Protecting and Restoring Biodiversity, Island Press, Washington, D.C., 380 pp. NRC (National Research Council), 1975. Understanding Climatic Change: A Program for Action. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 239 pp. NRC, 1994. Solar Influences on Global Change. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 163 pp. NRC, 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, D.G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M.M. Hall, T.R. Karl, E.S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L.D. Talley (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 630 pp. NRC, 1996. Learning to Predict the Climate Variations Associated with El Niño: Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 171 pp. NRC, 1997. The Global Ocean Observing System: Users, Benefits, and Priorities. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 82 pp. NRC, 1998a. A Scientific Strategy for U.S. Participation in the GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) Component of the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Programme. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 69 pp. NRC, 1998b. Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP): A Review of Progress and Opportunities. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 93 pp. O'Brien, S.R., P.A. Mayewski, L.D. Meyer, D.A. Meese, M.S. Twickler, and S.I. Whitlow, 1995. Complexity of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice core. Science 270, 1962-1964. Oechel, W.C., S.J. Hastings, G. Vourlitis, M. Jenkins, G. Riechers, and N. Grulke, 1993. Recent change of Arctic tundra ecosystems from a net carbon dioxide sink to a source. Nature 361, 520-523. Ogilvie, A.E.J., 1984. The past climate and sea ice records from Iceland, Part 1: Data to A.D. 1780. Clim. Change 6, 131-152. Oppo, D.W., J.F. McManus, and J.L. Cullen, 1998. Abrupt climate events 500,000 to 340,000 years ago: Evidence from subpolar North Atlantic sediments. Science 279, 1335-1338.

OCR for page 126
Page 136 Oppenheimer, M., 1998. Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature 393, 325-332. Osborn, M.T., R.J. DeCoursey, and C.R. Trepte, 1995. Evolution of the Pinatubo volcanic cloud over Hampton, Virginia. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 1101-1104. Osterkamp, T.E., T. Zhang, and V.E. Romanovsky, 1994. Evidence for a cyclic variation of permafrost temperatures in Northern Alaska. Permafrost Periglacial Process. 5, 137-144. Otto-Bliesner, B.L., and G.R. Upchurch, 1997. Vegetation-induced warming of high-latitude regions during the Late Cretaceous Period. Nature 385, 804-807. Overpeck, J.T., 1996. Varved sediment records of recent seasonal-millennial environmental variability. In Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, P.D. Jones, R.S. Bradley, and J. Jouzel (eds.), NATO ASI Series, Vol. I41, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 479-498. Overpeck, J.T., D. Rind, and R. Goldberg, 1990. Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature 343, 51-53. Overpeck, J.T., P.J. Bartlein, and T. Webb III, 1991. Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: Comparisons with the past. Science 254, 692-695. Overpeck, J.T., D.M. Anderson, S.E. Trumbore, and W.L. Prell, 1996. The southwest Indian monsoon over the last 18,000 years. Climate Dyn. 12, 213-225. Overpeck, J.T., K. Hughen, D. Hardy, R. Bradley, R. Case, M. Douglas, B. Finney, K. Gajewski, G. Jacoby, A. Jennings, S. Lamoureux, A. Lasca, G. MacDonald, J. Moore, M. Retelle, S. Smith, A. Wolfe, and G. Zielinski, 1997. Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries. Science 278, 1251-1256. Owen, J.A., and C.K. Folland. 1988. Modelling the influence of sea-surface temperatures on tropical rainfall. In Recent Climatic Change, A Regional Approach. S. Gregory (ed.), Bellhaven Press, London, pp. 141-153. Palmen, E., and C.W. Newton, 1969. Atmospheric Circulation Systems, Their Structure and Physical Interpretation. Academic Press, New York, 603 pp. Palmer T.N., 1993. Extended-range prediction and the Lorenz model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 74, 49-65. Palmer, T.N., and D.L.T. Anderson, 1993. Scientific Assessment of the Prospects for Seasonal Forecasting: A European Perspective. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Berkshire, U.K., 34 pp. Palmer, T.N., C. Brankovic, P. Viterbo, and M.J. Miller, 1992. Modeling interannual variations of summer monsoons. J. Climate 5, 399-417. Parilla, G., A. Lavin, H. Bryden, M. Garcia, and R. Millard, 1994. Rising temperatures in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean over the past 35 years. Nature 369, 48-51. Paterson, W.S.B., 1994. The Physics of Glaciers, 3rd ed. Pergamon (Elsevier Science Inc.), Tarrytown, New York, 480 pp. Pedlosky, J., 1987. An inertial theory for the equatorial undercurrent. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 18, 880-886. Penland, C., and P.D. Sardeshmukh, 1995. The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate 6, 1067-1076. Pielke, R.A., Jr., and C.W. Landsea, 1998. Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1925-1995. Weather and Forecasting 13, 351-361. Pierrehumbert, R.T., 1995. Thermostats, radiator fins, and the local runaway greenhouse. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1784-1806. Pittock, A.B., 1978. A critical look at long-term sun-weather relationships. Rev. Geophys. Space Physics 16, 400-420. Pitrock, A.B., 1983. Solar variability, weather. and climate: An update. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 109, 23-55. Plaut, G., M. Ghil, and R. Vautard, 1995. Interannual and interdecadal variability in 335 years of central England temperatures. Science 268, 710-713. Pohjola, V.A., and J.C. Rogers, 1997. Atmospheric circulation and variations in the Scandinavian glacier mass balance. Quat. Res. 47, 29-36. Polzin, K.L., J.M. Toole, J.R. Ledwell, and R.W. Schmitt, 1997. Spatial variability of turbulent mixing in the Abyssal Ocean. Science 276, 93-96. Poorter, H., 1993. Interspecific variation in the growth response of plants to an elevated ambient CO2 concentration. Vegetation 104/105, 77-97. Postel, S.L., G.C. Daily, and P.R. Ehrlich, 1996. Human appropriation of renewable fresh water. Science 271, 785-788. Prather, M.J., 1992. Catastrophic loss of stratospheric ozone in dense volcanic clouds. J. Geophys. Res. 97, 10187-10191. Prather, M.J., 1994. Lifetimes and eigenstates in atmospheric chemistry. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 801-804. Prentice, I.C, and M.T. Sykes, 1995. Vegetation geography and global carbon storage changes. In Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climate System, G.M. Woodwell and F.T. Mackenzie (eds.), Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 304-312. Prentice, I.C., W. Cramer, S.P. Harrison, R. Leemans, R.A. Monserud, and A.M. Solomon, 1992. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J. Biogeogr. 19, 117-134. Pringle, H., 1997. Death in Norse Greenland. Science 275, 924-926. Prinn, R.G., R.F. Weiss, B.R. Miller, J. Huang, F.N. Alyea, D.M. Cunnold, P.J. Fraser, D.E. Hartley, and P.G. Simmonds, 1995. Atmospheric trends and lifetime of CH3CCI3 and global OH concentrations. Science 269, 187-192. Qiu, B., and R.X. Huang, 1994. Subduction/obduction in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. In The Atlantic Climate Change Program. Proceedings from the Principal Investigators Meeting (May 9-11, 1994), A.-M. Wilburn (ed.), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, pp. 97-99. Qiu, B., and F.-F. Jin, 1997. Antarctic circumpolar waves: An indication of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the extratropics. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 2585-2588. Qiu, B., and T.M. Joyce, 1992. Interannual variability in the mid- and lowlatitude western North Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 22, 1062-1079. Quadfasel, D., 1991. Warming in the Arctic. Nature 350, 385. Quinn, W.H., 1993. A study of Southern Oscillation-related climatic activity for A.D. 622-1900 incorporating Nile River flood data. In El Niño: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 119-149. Quinn, W.H., and V.T. Neal, 1984. Long-term variations in the Southern Oscillation, El Niño, and Chilean subtropical rainfall. U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service, Fishery, Bulletin 81, 363-374. Quinn, T.M., T.J. Crowley, and F.W. Taylor, 1996. New stable isotope results from a 173-year coral from Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 3413-3416. Rajagopalan, B., and U. Lall, 1995. Seasonality of precipitation along a meridian in the Western United States. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 1081-1084. Rajagopalan, B., U. Lall, and M.A. Cane, 1997. Anomalous ENSO occurrences: An alternate view. J. Climate 10, 2351-2357. Randall, D., J. Curry, D. Battisti, G. Flato, R. Grumbine, S. Hakkinen, D. Martinson, R. Preller, J. Walsh, and J. Weatherly, 1998. Status of and outlook for large-scale modeling of atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions in the Arctic. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 79, 197-219. Rao, V.B., M.C. De Lima, and S.H. Franchito, 1993. Seasonal and interannual variations of rainfall over eastern northeast Brazil. J. Climate 6, 1754-1763. Rasmusson, E.M., and P.A. Arkin, 1993. A global view of large-scale precipitation variability. J. Climate 6, 1495-1522. Rasmusson, E.M., and J.M. Wallace, 1983. Meteorological aspects of the E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation. Science 222, 1195-1202. Rastetter, E.B., R.B. McKane, G.R. Shaver, and J.M. Melillo, 1992. Changes in C storage by terrestrial ecosystems: How C-N interactions restrict responses to CO2 and temperature. Water Air Soil Pollut. 64, 327-344. Raynaud, D.M., J. Jouzel, J.M. Barnola, J. Chapellaz, R.J. Delmas, and C. Lorius, 1993. The ice record of greenhouse gases. Science 259, 926-

OCR for page 126
Page 137 934. Reason, C.J.C., R.J. Allan, and J.A. Lindesay, 1996a. Evidence for the influence of remote forcing on interdecadal variability in the southern Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 11867-11882. Reason, C.J.C., R.J. Allan, and J.A. Lindesay, 1996b. Dynamical response of the oceanic circulation and temperature to interdecadal variability in the surface winds over the Indian Ocean. J. Climate 9, 97-114. Reich, P.B., and R.G. Amundson, 1985. Ambient levels of ozone reduce net photosynthesis in tree and crop species. Science 230, 566-570. Reid, G.C., 1991. Solar total irradiance variations and the global sea surface temperature record. J. Geophys. Res. 96, 2835-2844. Reinhold, B.B., and R.P. Pierrehumbert, 1982. Dynamics of weather regimes: Quasi-stationary waves and blocking. Mon. Wea. Rev. 110, 1105-1145. Reynolds, R.W., 1988. A real-time global sea surface temperature analysis. J. Climate 1, 75-86. Rind, D., 1998. Latitudinal temperature gradients and climate change. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 5943-5971. Rind, D., and J.T. Overpeck, 1993. Hypothesized causes of decade-to-century-scale climate variability: Climate model results. Quat. Sci. Rev. 12, 357-374. Rind, D., R. Healy, C. Parkinson, and D. Martinson, 1995. The role of sea ice in 2×CO2 climate model sensitivity. Part I: The total influence of sea-ice thickness and extent. J. Climate 8, 449-463. Rind, D., C. Rosenzweig, and M. Stieglitz, 1997. The role of moisture transport between ground and atmosphere in global change. Ann. Rev. Energy Environ. 22, 47-74. Rinsland, C.P., M.R. Gunson, M.C. Abrams, L.L. Lowes, R. Zander, E. Mathieu, A. Goldman, M.K.W. Ko, J.M. Rodriguez, and N.D. Sze, 1994. N2O5 to NHO3 in the post-Mount Pinatubo eruption stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 8213-8219. Ritchie, J.C., C.H. Eyles, and C.V. Haynes, 1985. Sediment and pollen evidence for an early- to mid-Holocene humid period in the eastern Sahara. Nature 314, 352-355. Robinson, D.A., K.F. Dewey, and R.R. Heim, Jr., 1993. Global snow cover monitoring: An update. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 74, 1689-1696. Robock, A., 1991. The volcanic contribution to climate change of the past century. In Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations, M.E. Schlesinger (ed.), Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 429-444. Robock, A., and Mao, J., 1995. The volcanic signal in surface temperature observations. J. Climate 8, 1086-1103. Roemmich, D., and C. Wunsch, 1984. Apparent changes in the climatic state of the deep North Atlantic Ocean. Nature 307, 447-450. Rogers, J.C., 1981. The North-Pacific Oscillation. J. Climatol. 1, 39-57. Rogers, J.C., 1984. The association between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere. Mort. Wea. Rev. 112, 1999-2015. Rogers, J.C., 1990. Patterns of low-frequency monthly sea level pressure variability (1899-1986) and associated wave cyclone frequencies. J. Climate 3, 1364-1379. Rogers, H.H., G.B. Runion, and S.V. Krupa, 1994. Plant responses to atmospheric CO2 enrichment with emphasis on roots and the rhizosphere. Environ. Pollut. 83, 155-189. Ropelewski, C.F., and M.S. Halpert, 1987. Global and regional scale precipitation and temperature patterns associated with E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 1606-1626. Ropelewski, C.F., P.J. Lamb, and D.H. Portis, 1993. The global climate for June to August 1990: Drought returns to sub-Saharan West Africa and warm Southern Oscillation episode conditions develop in the central Pacific. J. Climate 6, 2188-2212. Rossow, W.B., and B. Cairns, 1995. Monitoring changes in clouds. Clim. Change 31, 175-217. Rowell, D.P., C.K. Folland, K. Maskell, J.A. Owen, and M.N. Ward, 1992. Modelling the influence of global sea surface temperatures on the variability and predictability of seasonal Sahel rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 905-908. Rudels, B., E.P. Jones, L.G. Anderson, and G. Kattner, 1994. On the intermediate depth waters of the Arctic ocean. In The Polar Oceans and Their Role in Shaping the Global Environment, O.M. Johannessen, R.D. Muench, and J.E. Overland (eds.), American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 33-46. Russell, J.M., M.-Z. Luo, R.J. Cicerone, and L.E. Deaver, 1996. Satellite confirmation of the dominance of chlorofluorocarbons in the global stratospheric chlorine budget. Nature 379, 526-529. Sandweiss, D.H., J.B. Richardson, E.J. Reitz, H.B. Rollins. and K.A. Maasch, 1996. Geoarchaeological evidence from Peru for a 5000 years B.P. onset of E1 Niño. Science 273, 1531-1533. Santer, B.D., K.E. Taylor, T.M.L. Wigley, J.E. Penner, P.D. Jones, and U. Cubasch, 1995. Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate. Climate Dyn. 12, 77-100. Santer, B.D., K.E. Taylor, T.M.L. Wigley, T.C. Johns, P.D. Jones, D.J. Karoly, J.F.B. Mitchell, A.H. Oort, J.E. Penner, V. Ramaswamy, M.D. Schwartzkopf, R.J. Stouffer, and S. Tett, 1996. A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature 382, 39-46. Sarachik, E.S., M. Winton, and F.L. Yin, 1996. Mechanisms for decadalto-centennial climate variability. In Decadal Climate Variability: Dynamics and Predictability. D.L.T. Anderson and J. Willebrand (eds.), NATO ASI Series, Vol. I44, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 157-210. Sarmiento, J.L., and J.R. Toggweiler, 1984. A new model for the role of the oceans in determining atmospheric CO2. Nature 308, 621-624. Sarmiento, J.L., T.M.C. Hughes, R.J. Stouffer, and S. Manabe, 1998. Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming. Nature 393, 245-249. Sato, M., J.E. Hanson, M.P. McCormick, and J.B. Pollack, 1993. Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 22987-22994. Saunders, M.A., and A.R. Harris, 1997. Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic hurricane season to record sea warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 1255-1258. Schindler, D.W., and S.E. Bailey, 1993. The biosphere as an increasing sink for atmospheric carbon: Estimates from increased nitrogen deposition. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 7, 717-734. Schlesinger, M.E., and N. Ramankutty, 1992. Implications for global warming of intercycle solar irradiance variations. Nature 360, 330-333. Schlosser, P., G. Bonisch, M. Rhein, and R. Bayer, 1991. Reduction of deep water formation in the Greenland Sea during the 1980s: Evidence from tracer data. Science 251, 1054-1056. Schmitt, R.W., and S.E. Wijffels, 1992. The role of the ocean in the global water cycle. In Interactions Between Global Climate Subsystems, G.A. McBean and M. Hantel (eds.), Geophysical Monograph 75. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., 77-84. Schmitz, W.J. 1996. On the World Ocean Circulation: The Pacific and Indian Oceans/A Global Update, Vol. 2. WHOI Technical Report, WHOI-96-08, 237 pp. Schneider, D., 1997. The rising seas. Sci. Amer. 276, 112-117. Schwartz, M.L., and E.C.F. Bird, 1990. Artificial beaches. J. Coastal Res. 6. Seager, R., and R. Murtugudde, 1997. Ocean dynamics, thermocline adjustment and regulation of tropical SST. J. Climate 10, 521-534. Sear, C.B., P.M. Kelly, P.D. Jones, and C.M. Goodess, 1987. Global surface temperature response to major volcanic eruptions. Nature 330, 365-367. Sellers, P.J., L. Bounoun, G.J. Collatz, D.A. Randall, D.A. Duzlich, S.O. Los, J.A. Berry, I.Y. Fung, C.J. Tucker, C.B. Field, and T.G. Jensen, 1996. Comparison of radiative and physiological effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 on climate. Science 271, 1402-1406. Semazzi, F.H.M., L.-H. Neng, L.-L. Yuh, and F. Giorgi., 1993. A nested model study of the Sahelian climate response to sea-surface temperature anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 2897-2900. Serreze, M.C., J.A. Maslanik, J.R. Key, and R.F. Kokaly, 1995. Diagnosis

OCR for page 126
Page 138 of the record minimum in Arctic sea ice area during 1990 and associated snow cover. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 2183-2186. Severinghaus, J.P., T. Sowers, E.J. Brook, R.B. Alley, and M.L. Bender, 1998. Timing of abrupt climate change at the end of the Younger Dryas interval from the thermally fractionated gases in polar ice. Nature 391, 141-146. Sevruk, B., 1982. Methods of Correcting for Systematic Error in Point Precipitation Measurements for Operational Use. Operational Hydrology Report 21, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 91 pp. Shackleton, N.J., and N.D. Opdyke, 1973. Oxygen isotope and paleomagnetic stratigraphy of equatorial Pacific core V28-238: Oxygen isotope temperatures and ice volumes on a 105 and 106 year scale. Quat. Res. 3, 39-55. Shapiro, L.J., 1982. Hurricane climatic fluctuations, Part 2: Relation to large-scale circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 110, 1014-1023. Shen, G.T., and R.B. Dunbar, 1996. Environmental controls on uranium in reef corals. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 59, 2009-2024. Shen, G.T., E.A. Boyle, and D.W. Lea, 1987. Cadmium in corals as a tracer of historical upwelling and industrial fallout. Nature 328, 794-796. Shen, G.T., L.J. Linn, T.M. Campbell, J.E. Cole, and R.G. Fairbanks, 1992. A chemical indicator of trade wind reversal in corals from the western tropical Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. 97, 12689-12698. Shen, C.-C., T. Lee, C.-Y. Chen, C.-H. Wang, C.-P. Dai, and L.-A. Li, 1996. The calibration of D[Sr/Ca] versus sea surface temperature relationship for Porites corals. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 60, 3849-3858. Shinoda, M., 1990. Long-term Sahelian drought from the late 1960's to the mid 1980's and its relation to the atmospheric circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 68, 613-624. Shukla, J.M., C. Nobre, and P. Sellers, 1990. Amazon deforestation and climate change. Science 247, 1322-1324. Simmons, A.J., J.M. Wallace, and G.W. Branstator, 1983. Barotropic wave propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J. Atmos. Sci. 40, 1363-1392. Sirocko, F., M. Sarnthein, H. Erlenkeuser, H. Lange, M. Arnold, and J.C. Duplessy, 1993. Century-scale events in monsoonal climate over the past 24,000 years. Nature 364, 322-324. Slonosky, V.C., L.A. Mysak, and J. Derome, 1997. Linking Arctic sea-ice and atmospheric circulation anomalies on interannual and decadal timescales. Atmos.-Ocean 35, 333-366. Smethie, W.M., Jr., 1993. Tracing the thermohaline circulation in the western North Atlantic using chlorofluorocarbons. Prog. Oceanogr. 31, 51-99. Smith, R.C., B. Prézelin, K.S. Baker, R.R. Bidigare, N.P. Boucher, T. Coley, D. Karentz, S. MacIntyre, H.A. Matlick, D. Menzies, M. Ondrusek, Z. Wan, and K.J. Waters, 1992. Ozone depletion: Ultraviolet radiation and phytoplankton biology in Antarctic waters. Science 255, 952-959. Smith, R.C., 1995. Implications of increased solar UV-B for aquatic ecosystems. In Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climatic System, G.M. Woodwell and F.T. Mackenzie (eds.), Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 263-277. Solomon, S., R.W. Portman, R.R. Garcia, L.W. Thomason, L.R. Poole, and M.P. McCormick, 1996. The role of aerosol variability in anthropogenic ozone depletion at northern mid-latitudes. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 6713-6727. Spall, M.A., 1996. Dynamics of the Gulf Stream/Deep Western Boundary current crossover, Part II: Low-frequency internal oscillations. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 26, 2169-2182. Speich, S., H. Dijkstra, and M. Ghil, 1995. Successive bifurcations in a shallow-water model, applied to the wind-driven ocean circulation. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 2, 241-268. Spencer, R.W., 1993. Global oceanic precipitation from the MSU during 1979-91 and comparisons to other climatologies. J. Climate 6, 1301-1326. Spencer, R.W., and J.R. Christy, 1992a. Precision and radiosonde validation of satellite gridpoint temperature anomalies, Part I: MSU channel 2. J. Climate 5, 847-857. Spencer, R.W., and J.R. Christy, 1992b. Precision and radiosonde validation of satellite gridpoint temperature anomalies, Part II: A tropospheric retrieval and trends during 1979-90. J. Climate 5, 858-866. Spencer, N.E., and P.L. Woodworth, 1993. Data Holdings of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (November 1993). Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, Bidston, Birkenhead, U.K., 81 pp. Staehelin, J., J. Thudium, R. Buhler, A. Volz-Thomas, and W. Graber, 1994. Trends in surface ozone at Arosa (Switzerland). Atmos. Environ. 28, 75-87. Staehelin, J., R. Kegel, and N.R.P. Harris, 1998. Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1926-1996. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 8389-8399. Stager, J.C., and P.A. Mayewski, 1997. Abrupt early to mid-Holocene climatic transition registered at the equator and the poles. Science 276, 1834-1836. Steele, M., and T. Boyd, in press. Retreat of the cold halocline layer in the Arctic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. Stephens, B.B., R.F. Keeling, M. Heimann, K.D. Six, R. Murnane, and K. Caldeira, 1998. Testing global ocean carbon cycle models using measurements of atmospheric O2 and CO2 concentrations. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 12, 213-230. Stine, S., 1994. Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during mediaeval time. Nature 369, 546-549. Stockdale, T.N., D.L.T. Anderson, J.O.S. Alves, and M.A. Balmaseda, 1998. Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Nature 392, 370-373. Stocker, T.F., and A. Schmittner, 1997. Influence of CO2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature 388, 862-865. Stommel, H., 1979. Determination of water mass properties of water pumped down from the Ekman layer to the geostrophic flow below. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 76, 3051-3055. Stouffer, R.J., S. Manabe, and K.Ya. Vinnikov, 1994. Model assessment of natural variability in recent global warming. Nature 367, 634-636. Sturges, W., 1987. Large-scale coherence of sea level at very low frequencies. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 17, 2084-2094. Sturges, W.E., and B.G. Hong, 1995. Wind forcing of the Atlantic thermocline along 32 degrees north at low frequencies. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 25, 1706-1715. Sun, D., 1997. El Niño: A coupled response to radiative heating? Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 2031-2034. Sun, D.-Z., and Z. Liu, 1996. Dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling: A thermostat for the tropics. Science 272, 1148-1150. Sun, D.-Z., and K.E. Trenberth, 1998. Coordinated heat removal from the equatorial Pacific during the 1986-87 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 2659-2662. Sutton, R.T., and Allen, M.R., 1997. Decadal predictability of North Atlantic temperature and climate. Nature 388, 563-567. Takahashi, T., R.A. Feely, R.F. Weiss, R.H. Wanninkhof, D.W. Chipman, S.L. Sutherland, and T.T. Takahashi, 1997. Global air-sea flux of CO2: An estimate based on measurements of sea-air pCO2 difference. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA. 94, 8292-8299. Talley, L.D., 1991. An Okhotsk Sea water anomaly: Implications for subthermocline ventilation in the North Pacific. Deep-Sea Res. 38, S171-190. Tanimoto, Y., N. Iwasaka, K. Hanawa, and Y. Toba, 1993. Characteristic variations of sea surface temperature with multiple time scales in the North Pacific. J. Climate 6, 1153-1160. Tans, P.P., 1998. Why carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning won't go away. In Perspectives in Environmental Chemistry, D.L. Macalady, (ed.), Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 271-291. Tans P.P., and White, J.W.C., 1998. In balance, with a little help from the plants. Science 281, 183-184. Tans, P.P., I.Y. Fung, and T. Takahashi, 1990. Observational constraints on the global atmospheric CO2 budget. Science 247, 1431-1438. Tans, P.P., J.A. Berry, and R.F. Keeling, 1993. Oceanic13C/12C observations: A new window on ocean CO2 uptake. Global Biogeochem. Cycles

OCR for page 126
Page 139 7, 353-368. Thomason, L.W., G.S. Kent, C.R. Trepte, and L.R. Poole, 1997a. A comparison of the stratospheric aerosol background periods of 1979 and 1989-1991. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 3611-3616. Thomason, L.W., L.R. Poole, and T.R. Deshler, 1997b. A global climatology of stratospheric aerosol surface area density as deduced from SAGE II: 1984-1994. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 8967-8976. Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. Wallace, 1998. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1297-1300. Thompson, L.G., E. Mosley-Thompson, W. Dansgaard, and P.M. Grootes, 1986. The Little Ice Age as recorded in the stratigraphy of the tropical Quelccaya Ice Cap. Science 234, 361-364. Thompson, L.G., E. Mosley-Thompson, M.E. Davis, J.F. Bolzan, J. Dai, T. Yao, N. Gundestrup, X. Wu, L. Klein, and Z. Xie, 1989. Holocene-Late Pleistocene climatic ice core records from Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Science 246, 474-477. Thompson, A.M., J.A. Chapellaz, I.Y. Fung, and T.L. Kuscera, 1993a. The atmospheric CH4 increase since the last glacial maximum: 2. Interaction with oxidants. Tellus 45B, 242-257. Thompson, L.G., E. Mosley-Thompson, M.E. Davis, P.N. Lin, T. Yao, M. Dyurgerov, and J. Dai, 1993b. Recent warming: Ice core evidence from tropical ice cores with emphasis on Central Asia. Global Planet. Change 7, 145-156. Thompson, L.G., E. Mosley-Thompson, M.E. Davis, P.-N. Lin, K.A. Henderson, J. Cole-Dai, J.F. Bolzan, and K.-B. Liu, 1995. Late Glacial stage and Holocene tropical ice core records from Huascarán, Peru. Science 269, 46-50. Thompson, L.G., T. Yao, M.E. Davis, K.A. Henderson, E. Mosley-Thompson, P.-N. Lin, J. Beer, H.-A. Synal, J. Cole-Dai, and J.F. Bolzan, 1997. Tropical climate instability: The last glacial cycle from a Qinghai-Tibetan ice core. Science 276, 1821-1827. Timmerman A., J. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif, and R. Roeckner, 1998. ENSO response to greenhouse warming. Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 251, 13 pp. Ting, M., and Wang, H., 1997. Summertime United States precipitation variability and its relation to Pacific SST. J. Climate 10, 1853-1873. Tissue, D.T., and W.C. Oechel, 1987. Response of Eriophorum vaginatum to elevated CO2 and temperature in the Alaskan Arctic tundra. Ecology 68, 401-410. Todling, R., S.E. Cohn, and N.S. Sivakumaran, 1998: Suboptimal schemes for retrospective data assimilation based on the fixed-lag Kalman smoother. Mon. Wea. Rev. 126, 2274-2286. Tourre, Y.M., and W.B. White, 1997. Evolution of the ENSO signal over the Indo-Pacific domain. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 27, 683-696. Tourre, Y.M., Y. Kushnir, and W.B. White, in press. Evolution of interdecadal variability in sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and upper ocean temperature over the Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr. Townsend, A.R., B.H. Braswell, E.A. Holland, and J.E. Penner, 1996. Spatial and temporal patterns in terrestrial carbon storage due to deposition of atmospheric nitrogen. Ecol. Appl. 6, 806-814. Tremblay, L.-B., L.A. Mysak, and A.S. Dyke, 1997. Evidence from driftwood records for century-to-millennial scale variations of the high latitude atmospheric circulation during the Holocene. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 2027-2030. Trenberth, K., 1984. Signal versus noise in the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 326-332. Trenberth, K., 1990. Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 71, 988-993. Trenberth, K.E., 1995. Atmospheric circulation climate changes. Clim. Change 31, 427-453. Trenberth, K.E., in press. Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for rainfall rates with climate change. Clim. Change 34. Trenberth, K.E., and G.W. Branstator, 1992. Issues in establishing causes of the 1988 drought over North America. J. Climate 5, 159-172. Trenberth, K.E., and C. J. Guillemot, 1998: Evaluation of the atmospheric moisture and hydrogical cycle in the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dyn. 14, 213-231. Trenberth, K.E., and T.J. Hoar, 1995. The 1990-1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event: Longest on record. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 57-60. Trenberth, K.E., and T.J. Hoar, 1997. El Niño and climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 3057-3060. Trenberth, K.E., and J.W. Hurrell, 1994. Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dyn. 9, 303-319. Trenberth, K.E., and A. Solomon, 1994. The global heat balance: Heat transports in the atmosphere and ocean. Climate Dyn. 10, 107-134. Trepte, C.R., and M.H. Hitchman, 1992. Tropical stratospheric circulation diagnosed in satellite aerosol data. Nature 355, 626-628. Trepte, C.R., R.E. Veiga, and M.P. McCormick, 1993. The poleward dispersal of Mount Pinatubo volcanic aerosols. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 18563-18573. Tucker, C.J., H.E. Dregne, and W.W. Newcomb, 1991. Expansion and contraction of the Sahara Desert from 1980 to 1990. Science 253, 299-301. Turner, B.L. II, R.H. Moss, and D.L. Skole (eds.), 1993. Relating Land Use and Global Landcover Change: A Proposal for an IGBP-HDP Core Project. IGBP report 24/HDP report 5, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Stockholm. Tziperman, E., 1997. Inherently unstable climate behaviour due to weak thermohaline ocean circulation. Nature 386, 592-595. Unal, Y.S., and M. Ghil, 1995. Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level. Climate Dyn. 11, 255-278. Uvo, C.B., C.A. Repelli, S.E. Zebiak, and Y. Kushnir, 1997. The relationships between tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST and northeast Brazil monthly precipitation. J. Climate 11, 551-562. van Loon, H., and R.L. Jenne, 1972. The zonal harmonic standing waves in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Geophys. Res. 77, 992-1003. van Loon, H., and J.C. Rogers, 1978. The seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and Northern Europe, Part I: General description. Mon. Wea. Rev. 106, 296-310. van Loon, H., R.L. Jenne, and K. Labitzke, 1973. Zonal harmonic standing waves. J. Geophys. Res. 78, 4463-4471. VEMAP (Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project), 1995. Vegetation/ecosystem modeling and analysis project: Comparing bio-geography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 9, 407-437. Vinnikov, K.Ya., P.Ya. Groisman, and K.M. Lugina, 1990. Empirical data on contemporary global climate changes (temperature and precipitation). J. Climate 3, 662-667. Vitousek, P.M., P.R. Ehrlich, A.H. Ehrlich, and P.A. Matson, 1986. Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis. BioScience 36, 368-373. Vitousek, P.M., H.A. Mooney, I. Lubchenco, and J.M. Melillo, 1997. Human domination of Earth's ecosystems. Science 277, 494-499. Wagner, R.G., and A.M. da Silva, 1994. Surface conditions associated with anomalous rainfall in the Guinea coastal region. Int. J. Climatol. 14, 179-199. Walker, G.T., and E. Bliss, 1932. World Weather V. Mem. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 4, 53-84. Wallace, J.M., 1996. Observed climatic variability: Spatial structure. In Decadal Climate Variability, D.L.T. Anderson and J. Willebrand (eds.), NATO ASI Series, Vol. 144, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 31-81. Wallace, J.M., and D.S. Gutzler, 1981. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev. 109, 784-812. Wallace, J.M., and P. Hobbs, 1977. Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey. Academic Press, New York, 467 pp. Wallace, J.M., C. Smith, and C.S. Bretherton, 1992. Singular value decomposition of wintertime sea surface temperature and 500-mb height anomalies. J. Climate 5, 561-576.

OCR for page 126
Page 140 Wallace, J.M., Y. Zhang, and K.-H. Lau, 1993. Structure and seasonality of interannual and interdecadal variability of the geopotential height and temperature fields in the Northern Hemisphere troposphere. J. Climate 6, 2063-2082. Wallace, J.M, Y. Zhang, and J.A. Renwick, 1995. Dynamic contribution to hemispheric mean temperature trends. Science 270, 780-783. Walland, D.J., and I. Simmonds, 1997. North American and Eurasian snow cover co-variability. Tellus 49A, 503-512. Walsh, J.E., W.L. Chapman, and T.L. Shy, 1996. Recent decrease of sea level pressure in the central Arctic. J. Climate 9, 480-486. Ward, M.N., 1992. Provisionally corrected surface wind data, worldwide ocean-atmosphere surface fields, and Sahelian rainfall variability. J. Climate 5, 454-475. Ward, M.N., and C.K. Folland, 1991. Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the north Nordeste of Brazil using eigenvectors of sea surface temperature. Int. J. Climatol. 11, 711-743. WASA Group, 1998. Changing waves and storms in the northeast Atlantic. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 79, 741-760. Washington, W.M., and G.A. Meehl, 1995. High-latitude climate change in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model with increased atmospheric CO2. J. Geophy. Res. 101, 12795-12801. Watanabe, T., and K. Mizuno, 1994. Decadal changes of the thermal structure in the North Pacific. Int. WOCE Newsletter 15, 10-13. WCRP (World Climate Research Programme), 1995. CLIVAR Science Plan: A Study of Climate Variability and Predictability. Report No. 89, World Climate Research Programme, Geneva, 157 pp. Weaver, A.J., and T.M.C. Hughes, 1994. Rapid interglacial climate fluctuations driven by North Atlantic ocean circulation. Nature 367, 447-450. Weaver, A.J., and E.S. Sarachik, 1991. Evidence for decadal variability in an ocean general circulation model: An advective mechanism. Atmos.-Ocean 29, 197-231. Weaver, A.J., J. Marotzke, P.F. Cummins, and E.S. Sarachik, 1993. Stability and variability of the thermohaline circulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 23, 39-60. Wedin, D.A., and D. Tilman, 1996. Influence of nitrogen loading and species composition on the carbon balance of grasslands. Science 274, 1720-1723. Weiss, H., H.-A. Courty, W. Wetterstrom, L. Senior, R. Meadow, F. Guichard, and A. Curnow, 1993. The genesis and collapse of third millennium north Mesopotamian civilization. Science 261, 995-1004. Wellington, G.M., G. Merlen, and R.B. Dunbar, 1996. Calibration of stable oxygen isotope signatures in Galápagos corals. Paleoceanography 11, 467-480. White, W.B., and R. Peterson, 1996. An Antarctic Circumpolar Wave in surface pressure, wind, temperature, and sea ice extent. Nature 380, 699-702. White, J.W.C., L.K. Barlow, D. Fischer, P. Grootes, J. Jouzel, S.J. Johnson, M. Stuiver, and H. Clausen, 1997a. The climate signal in the stable isotopes of snow from Summit, Greenland: Results of comparisons with modern climate observations. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 26425-26439. White, W.B., J. Lean, D.R. Cayan, and M.D. Dettinger, 1997b. Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 3255-3266. Whitlock, C., and P.J. Bartlein, 1997. Vegetation and climate change in northwest America during the past 125 kyr. Nature 388, 57-61. Whung, P.-Y., E.S. Saltzmann, M.J. Spencer, P.A. Mayewski, and N. S. Gundestrup, 1994. A two hundred year record of biogenic sulfur in a South Greenland ice core (20D). J. Geophys. Res. 99, 1147-1156. Wigley, T.M.L., and T.P. Barnett, 1990. Detection of the greenhouse effect in the observations. In Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 239-256. Wigley, T.M.L., and D. Schimel (eds.), 1998. The Carbon Cycle. Cambridge University Press, Stanford, California. 420 pp. Willson, R.C., and H.S. Hudson, 1991. A solar cycle of measured and modeled total irradiance. Nature 351, 42-44. Wilson, J.C., M.R. Stolzenburg, W.E. Clark, M. Lowenstein, G.V. Ferry, K.R. Chan, and K.K. Kelly, 1992. Stratospheric sulfate aerosol in and near the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex: The morphology of the sulfate layer, multimodal size distributions, and the effect of denitrification. J. Geophys. Res. 97, 7997-8013. Winton, M., and E.S. Sarachik, 1993. Thermohaline oscillations of an oceanic general circulation model induced by strong steady salinity forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 23, 1389-1410. WMO (World Meteorological Organization), 1984. Summary Report on the Status of the WMO Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network as at May 1984. World Meteorological Organization Technical Document WMO/TD 13, Geneva, 21 pp. WMO, 1995. Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1994. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring, Report No. 37, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Wofsy, S.C., M.L. Goulden, J.W. Munger, S.-M. Fan, P.S. Bakwin, B.C. Daube, S.L. Bassow, and F.A. Bazzaz, 1993. Net exchange of CO2 in a mid-latitude forest. Science 260, 1314-1317. Woodwell, G.M., and F.T. Mackenzie (eds.), 1995. Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climate System, Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.K., 411 pp. WRI (World Resources Institute), 1996. World Resources 1996-1997, A Guide to the Global Environment. Oxford University Press, New York, 365 pp. Xie, S.-P., and Y. Tanimoto, 1998. A pan-Atlantic decadal climate oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 2185-2188. Yao, T., L.G. Thompson, E. Mosley-Thompson, Y. Zhihong, Z. Xingping, and P.-N. Lin, 1996. Climatological significance of the18O in north Tibetan ice cores. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 29531-29537. Yin, F.L., and E.S. Sarachik, 1994. An efficient convective adjustment scheme for ocean general circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 24, 1425-1430. Yuan, X., M.A. Cane, and D.G. Martinson, 1996. Climate variations: Cycling around the South Pole. Nature 380, 673-674. Zakharov, 1997. Sea Ice in the Climate System. Arctic Climate System Study, World Climate Research Programme, WMO/TD-No.782, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 80 pp. Zebiak, S.E., 1993. Air-sea interaction in the equatorial Atlantic region. J. Climate 6, 1567-1586. Zenk, W., and N. Hogg, 1996. Warming trend in Antarctic Bottom Water flowing into the Brazil Basin. Deep-Sea Res. 43, 1461-1473. Zhang, R.-H., and S. Levitus, 1996. Structure and evolution of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific upper ocean temperature. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 20501-20524. Zhang, A., W.H. Soon, S.L. Baliunas, G.W. Lockwood, B.A. Skiff, and R.R. Radick, 1994. A method of determining possible brightness variations of the sun in past centuries from observations of solar-type stars. Astrophys. J. 427, L111-L114. Zhang, Y., J.M. Wallace, and D.S. Battisti, 1997. ENSO-like decade-tocentury scale variability: 1900-93. J. Climate 10, 1004-1020. Zhang, R.-H., L.M. Rothstein, and A.J. Busalacchi, 1998. Origin of upper-ocean warming and El Niño change on decadal scales in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Nature 391, 879-883. Zhou, Z., 1996. The Cause of Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean, Ph.D. thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland. Zielinski, G.A., P.A. Mayewski, and L.D. Meeker, 1994. Record of volcanism since 7000 BC from the GISP2 Greenland ice core and implications for the volcano-climate system. Science 264, 948-950. Zorita, E., J.P. Hughes, D.P. Lettenmaier, and H. von Storch, 1995. Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation. J. Climate 8, 1023-1042. Zuidema, G., G.J. van den Born, J. Alcamo, and G.J.J. Kreileman, 1994. Simulating changes in global land cover as affected by economic and climatic factors. Water Air Soil Pollut. 76, 163-198.