Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change
A Science Strategy
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. 50-DKNA-5-00015. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-88439
International Standard Book Number 0-309-06098-2
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National Academy Press
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http://www.nap.edu
COVER: The Day It Happened, the oil painting reproduced on the cover of this book, is the work of Ilana Cernat of Bat-Yam, Israel. Dr. Cernat is linked to the world of intermediate-scale climate change through her son Michael Ghil, a member of the panel on Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. The Day It Happened (1988) is one of several of her paintings that express her concern for the future, particularly what sort of world we will be leaving to the generations to come. A lawyer by training and profession, Dr. Cernat began studying painting in her teens. Her work has been exhibited in Romania, Hungary, Israel, and the United States, and hangs in collections in other countries as well. Her 1989 painting The Eye of the Storm appeared on the cover of the 1995 NRC report on natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales.
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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PANEL ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON DECADE-TO-CENTURY TIME SCALES
DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON (Chair), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York
DAVID S. BATTISTI, University of Washington, Seattle
RAYMOND S. BRADLEY, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
JULIA E. COLE, University of Colorado, Boulder
RANA A. FINE, University of Miami, Florida
MICHAEL GHIL, University of California, Los Angeles
YOCHANAN KUSHNIR, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York
SYUKURO MANABE, Earth Frontier Research System, Tokyo, Japan
MICHAEL S. McCARTNEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
M. PATRICK McCORMICK, Hampton University, Virginia
MICHAEL J. PRATHER, University of California, Irvine
EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle
PIETER TANS, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
LONNIE G. THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
MICHAEL WINTON, Princeton University, New Jersey
Staff
ELLEN F. RICE, Program Officer (ending September 1, 1998)
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
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CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE
THOMAS R. KARL (Chair), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina
ROBERT E. DICKINSON (Vice Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson
MAURICE BLACKMON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
BERT BOLIN, Osterskar, Sweden
JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara
JAMES GIRAYTYS, Consultant, Winchester, Virginia
JAMES E. HANSEN, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, New York, New York
PHILIP E. MERILEES, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network, Palisades, New York
S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL, University of New Hampshire, Durham
STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula
EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle
WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
KARL E. TAYLOR, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
ANNE M. THOMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Ex Officio Members
DOUGLAS G. MARTINS ON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York
W. LAWRENCE GATES, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of Arizona, Tucson
PETER J. WEBSTER, University of Colorado, Boulder
Staff
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer (IPA) (ending September 30, 1998)
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), International Technology Corporation, Washington, D.C.
SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook
DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. LENNON, Sonalysts, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, Jr., Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
ELLEN F. RICE, Program Officer/Reports Officer (ending September 1, 1998)
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer
LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer (IPA) (ending September 30, 1998)
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN MORRIS, Administrative Associate
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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle
B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., St. George, Utah
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia
RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens
THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
Staff
ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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Preface
In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its monumental scientific assessment on climate change. This document presented, for the first time, a broad international scientific perspective on the status of our understanding of global climate change, focusing predominantly on anthropogenic change. While first recognized as a scientific issue nearly 100 years ago and the subject of many reports, this first attempt at producing a comprehensive assessment of the problem was both timely and energizing. It helped focus our collective scientific attention on key issues, by identifying, among other things, critical gaps in our understanding of the fundamental physics, chemistry, and biology of global change.
One significant gap involved our meager understanding and documentation of natural variability in the Earth's climate system which provides a context for evaluating the significance of human-induced changes. The climate change and variability that we experience will be a commingling of the ever changing natural climate state with any anthropogenic change. While we are ultimately interested in understanding and predicting how climate will change, regardless of the cause, an ability to differentiate anthropogenic change from natural variability is fundamental to help guide policy decisions, treaty negotiations, and adaptation versus mitigation strategies. Without a clear understanding of how climate has changed naturally in the past, and the mechanisms involved, our ability to interpret any future change will be significantly confounded and our ability to predict future change severely curtailed.
Recognizing this gap, the Climate Research Committee of the National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, organized a workshop in 1992 involving the world's most prominent climate researchers, to assess the state of understanding of natural climate variability. The workshop focused on natural climate change that occurs slowly, sometimes remaining almost imperceptible for many years, decades, or even a century. These "decade-to-century" (dec-cen) time scales are the same ones over which anthropogenic climate change is expected to manifest itself, and thus the ones most likely to confound our interpretation and prediction of observed climate change as it relates to anthropogenic change. The results of this workshop, elaborated and published in a peer-reviewed National Academy of Science volume in 1995, showed considerable progress in our understanding of dec-cen climate variability on a broad number of fronts.
At the same time the NRC workshop was being organized in the United States, the Joint Scientific Committee, an international scientific oversight body for guiding international climate research under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), called on a group of experts to consider possible future directions for climate research. The results of their deliberations were published in 1992 in a report entitled CLIVARA Study of Climate Variability and Predictability. This document proposed the need for a new internationally-coordinated, interdisciplinary research program on climate variability and predictability, with decade-to-century time scale variability (natural and anthropogenic) playing a central role. As the science plan for the CLIVAR program was being developed, the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), also active in the international process, began formalizing plans to advance the development of a U.S. national science plan for addressing climate variability and change on decade-to-century time scales. The manifestation of these plans would contribute to the international effort while clearly defining and articulating our own particular national scientific interests. This led to the formation of the NRC panel on Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales (the Dec-Cen panel).
The NRC's Climate Research Committee (CRC) is the U.S. national committee to the WCRP. The Dec-Cen panel, as well as the complementary Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) and Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) panels (addressing shorter time scales and key processes), were established under the CRC to interface with the WCRP and CLIVAR organizational
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Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change
A Science Strategy
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible, and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Russ E. Davis, University of California, San Diego
W. Lawrence Gates, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
George M. Hornberger, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
Upmanu Lall, Utah State University
Gerald A. Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Richard S. Stolarski, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
John M. Wallace, University of Washington
John E. Walsh, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Warren A. Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research
In addition, we appreciate the post-review material and comments from Russ Davis, Robert Dickinson, Upmanu Lall, and Peter Niiler that helped to provide a more balanced discussion in some key areas. While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Contents
Executive Summary |
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1. Introduction |
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Society and a Varying Climate System |
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A U.S. Dec-Cen Science Strategy |
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2. Climate Attributes That Influence Society |
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Precipitation and Water Availability |
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Temperature |
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Solar Radiation |
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Storms |
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Sea Level |
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Ecosystems |
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3. Modes of Climate Variability |
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Climate Patterns in the Atmosphere |
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Other Patterns of Interest |
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Co-variability in the Climate System: Coupled Patterns |
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The Role of Dec-Cen Variability in Global Warming |
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Fundamental Issues and Questions |
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4. Mechanisms and Predictability |
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The Nature of Climate Prediction |
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Short-, Medium-, and Long-Range Climate Prediction |
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Prediction and Mechanisms |
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The Uses of Climate Prediction |
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5. Climate-System Components |
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Atmospheric Composition and Radiative Forcing |
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Atmospheric Circulation |
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Hydrologic Cycle |
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Ocean Circulation |
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Cryosphere |
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Land and Vegetation |
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6. Crosscutting Issues |
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Climate Information |
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Coupled-Model Development and Infrastructure |
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