Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter

I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio

Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter

Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology

Commission on Life Sciences

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
WASHINGTON, D.C.
1998



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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Commission on Life Sciences Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS WASHINGTON, D.C. 1998

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This project was supported by Contract No. 68-C-98-003 between the National Academy of Sciences and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-85286 International Standard Book Number 0-309-06094-X Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio COMMITTEE ON RESEARCH PRIORITIES FOR AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER JONATHAN SAMET (Chair), The Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland JUDITH CHOW, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada ROBERT E. FORSTER, The University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania DANIEL S. GREENBAUM, Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts MAUREEN HENDERSON, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington PHILIP K. HOPKE, Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York PETROS KOUTRAKIS, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts DANIEL KREWSKI, Health Canada and University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario PAUL LIOY, University of Medicine and Dentistry-New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey JOE L. MAUDERLY, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico ROGER O. MCCLELLAN, Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina GÜNTER OBERDÖRSTER, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York REBECCA PARKIN, American Public Health Association, Washington, D.C. JOYCE E. PENNER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan RICHARD SCHLESINGER, New York University, Tuxedo, New York FRANK E. SPEIZER, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts MARK UTELL, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York RONALD WHITE, American Lung Association, Washington, D.C. RONALD WYZGA, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California TERRY F. YOSIE, Ruder Finn, Inc., Washington, D.C. Project Staff JAMES J. REISA, Principal Staff Officer KULBIR BAKSHI, Senior Staff Officer RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Staff Officer JAMIE YOUNG, Assistant to the Director LEE R. PAULSON, Editor RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Publications Manager

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Gordon Orians (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington DONALD MATTISON (Vice Chair), University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania MAY R. BERENBAUM, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois EULA BINGHAM, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio PAUL BUSCH, Malcolm Pirnie, Inc., White Plains, New York GEORGE P. DASTON, The Procter & Gamble Co., Cincinnati, Ohio PETER L. DEFUR, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia DAVID L. EATON, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington ROBERT A. FROSCH, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina DANIEL KREWSKI, Health Canada and University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario RAYMOND C. LOEHR, The University of Texas, Austin, Texas JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan, Utah MARIO J. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts WARREN MUIR, Hampshire Research Institute, Alexandria, Virginia GEOFFREY PLACE, Hilton Head, South Carolina MARGARET STRAND, Bayh, Connaughton and Malone, Washington, D.C. BAILUS WALKER, JR., Howard University, Washington, D.C. DIANA WALL, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado GERALD N. WOGAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts TERRY F. YOSIE, Ruder Finn Inc., Washington, D.C. Staff JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Program Director for Applied Ecology CAROL A. MACZKA, Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment LEE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Resource Management RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology JAMIE YOUNG, Assistant to the Director

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio COMMISSION ON LIFE SCIENCES THOMAS D. POLLARD (Chair), The Salk Institute, La Jolla, California FREDERICK R. ANDERSON, Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, Washington, D.C. JOHN C. BAILAR III, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois PAUL BERG, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California JOANNA BURGER, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey SHARON L. DUNWOODY, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin JOHN EMMERSON, Portland, Oregon NEAL FIRST, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin URSULA GOODENOUGH, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri HENRY HEIKKINEN, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, Colorado HANS J. KENDE, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan CYNTHIA KENYON, University of California, San Francisco, California DAVID LIVINGSTON, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts THOMAS E. LOVEJOY, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C. DONALD R. MATTISON, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JOSEPH E. MURRAY, Wellesley Hills, Massachusetts EDWARD E. PENHOET, Chiron Corporation, Emeryville, California MALCOLM C. PIKE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California JONATHAN M. SAMET, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland CHARLES F. STEVENS, The Salk Institute, La Jolla, California JOHN L. VANDEBERG, Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research, San Antonio, Texas PAUL GILMAN, Executive Director

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Colorado, Boulder PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington B. JOHN GARRICK, St. George, Utah THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. HUGH C. MORRIS, Padre Resource Corporation, Delta, British Columbia RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California Staff ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY H. SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative & Financial Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY The National Research Council's Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997) Toxicologic Assessment of the Army's Zinc Cadmium Sulfide Dispersion Tests (1997) Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet: A Comparison of Naturally Occurring and Synthetic Substances (1996) Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996) Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995) Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995) Biologic Markers [Urinary Toxicology (1995), Immunotoxicology (1992), Environmental Neurotoxicology (1992), Pulmonary Toxicology (1989), Reproductive Toxicology (1989)] Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (three reports, 1994-1995) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994) Ranking Hazardous Waste Sites for Remedial Action (1994) Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993) Issues in Risk Assessment (1993) Setting Priorities for Land Conservation (1993) Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993) Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992) Hazardous Materials on the Public Lands (1992) Science and the National Parks (1992) Animals as Sentinels of Environmental Health Hazards (1991) Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program, Volumes I-IV (1991-1993) Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991) Monitoring Human Tissues for Toxic Substances (1991) Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991) Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990) Tracking Toxic Substances at Industrial Facilities (1990) Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academy Press (800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio PREFACE New epidemiological evidence—largely obtained during the 1990s—renewed concerns about the health effects of particulate matter in ambient (outdoor) air, and ultimately led to new National Ambient Air Quality Standards for particulate matter that were issued in July 1997 by the administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Even as the standards were promulgated, scientists and policymakers recognized that further research on particulate matter was needed to address key uncertainties. In the Fiscal 1998 appropriations to EPA, Congress directed the administrator to arrange for an independent study by the National Research Council (NRC) to identify the most important research priorities relevant to setting particulate matter standards, to develop a conceptual plan for particulate-matter research, and, over 5 years, to monitor research progress toward improved understanding of the relationship between particulate matter and public health. The Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter was established by the NRC in January 1998 in response to the request from Congress. The committee is charged with producing 4 reports over the 5 years 1998-2002. This, our first report, offers a conceptual framework for an integrated national program of particulate-matter research, identifies the most-critical research needs linked to key policy-related scientific uncertainties, and describes the optimal short-term and long-term timing

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio and estimated costs of such research in an integrated research strategy, or ''research investment portfolio." The committee was neither asked, nor did it attempt, to evaluate the scientific evidence on particulate matter and health in regard to the 1997 decision of the EPA administrator to issue new particulate-matter standards. The committee's identification of uncertainties and related research needs should not be interpreted as an evaluation of any specific point of evidence related to the new particulate matter standards. Rather, the committee identified uncertainties in the evidence base that should be addressed through a program of research. The findings of this research should strengthen the scientific foundation for policy decisions. This report was produced in a 2-month period at the beginning of a 5-year study. The committee expects to gain a deepening understanding of research being conducted by EPA and others as it continues to do its work over the next 5 years, and recommendations made in this report will be refined and augmented in subsequent reports. The committee has been generously assisted by many people, including those who presented valuable information and documents during the committee's public sessions at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C., on January 20-21 and February 18, 1998: Frank Cushing, U.S. House Appropriations Committee; William Farland, John Vandenberg, and John Bachmann, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Sheila Newton, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences; David Hawkins, Natural Resources Defense Council; Carol Henry, American Petroleum Institute; Jane Warren, Health Effects Institute; Owen Moss, Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology; George Hidy, University of Alabama; Gregory Wagner, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health; and Robert Schnatter, American Industrial Health Council. Special thanks are due to Maria Costantini of the Health Effects Institute and John Vandenberg of the Environmental Protection Agency for preparing, at the committee's invitation, the Particulate Matter Research Inventory summary contained in Appendix B of this report. This report was also improved by a separate group of expert reviewers, chosen by the NRC and anonymous to the committee members until public release of the report. The following persons provided prompt and insightful evaluations of the semifinal draft of this report:

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio Joan M. Daisey, Arthur B. DuBois, Clark W. Heath, Jr., Carol J. Henry, Morton Lippmann, Peter H. McMurry, Thomas W. Peterson, Robert F. Phalen, Joel Schwartz, John H. Seinfeld, and George T. Wolff. The committee was ably assisted and deftly guided by staff of the NRC's Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, especially James J. Reisa, Kulbir Bakshi, Raymond Wassel, and Jamie Young. These staff members merit special recognition for their thoughtful contributions and extraordinary efforts in producing the report so rapidly, and for the many extra hours they worked to get the job done. Finally, I would like to express my thanks and admiration to the members of the committee, who deserve to be remembered in NRC folklore for producing this report with extraordinary speed and thoughtfulness within 2 months of the committee's first meeting. Because of the urgent need of Congress and EPA for the committee's first report, the members of the committee, all serving pro bono, put in many long hours to prepare this report. The committee meetings lasted from early morning to late into the night, and the committee members followed through between meetings with draft report sections, countless revisions, and conference calls. In accepting service on this committee, every member voluntarily agreed not to seek or accept any air-pollution-related, noncompetitive research contracts or cooperative agreements over $10,000 from EPA during the 5-year duration of this NRC study. Without exception, the committee members have been knowledgeable, thoughtful, hardworking, and generous of their time. In spite of the pace, the committee and staff maintained a high level of cooperation and good humor. The committee's collective response to our charge reflects our unified view of the potential significance of this report and the great responsibility given to this committee by Congress, EPA, and the NRC. Jonathan Samet, Chair March 1998

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio CONTENTS     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1.   INTRODUCTION   15 2.   PREVIOUS REVIEWS OF PARTICULATE-MATTER RESEARCH NEEDS   25     Report of the Park City Workshop on Particulate-Matter Research Strategies   25     EPA's Particulate-Matter Research-Needs Document   26     EPA's Particulate-Matter Research-Strategy Document   27     CASAC's Reviews of EPA's Particulate-Matter Research-Needs and Research-Strategy Documents   32 3.   THE COMMITTEE'S FRAMEWORK AND CRITERIA FOR EVALUATION   34 4.   THE COMMITTEE'S 10 HIGHEST-PRIORITY RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS   44     Research Topic 1: Outdoor Measures vs. Actual Human Exposures   46     Research Topic 2: Exposures of Susceptible Subpopulations to Toxic Particulate-Matter Components   50     Research Topic 3: Source-Receptor Measurement Tools   53     Research Topic 4: Application of Methods and Models   59     Research Topic 5: Assess Hazardous Particulate-Matter Components   63     Research Topic 6: Dosimetry: Deposition and Fate of Particles in the Respiratory Tract   70     Research Topic 7: Combined Effects of Particulate Matter and Gaseous Copollutants   74     Research Topic 8: Susceptible Subpopulations   79     Research Topic 9: Mechanisms of Injury   82     Research Topic 10: Analysis and Measurement   91

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio 5.   THE COMMITTEE'S RESEARCH INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO   98 6.   COMPARING THE COMMITTEE'S RECOMMENDATIONS WITH EPA'S RESEARCH PLANS   106     Current EPA Research Funding   106     Comparing EPA's Research Allocations with the Committee's Recommended Research Portfolio   107     Overall Recommendations   113 7.   ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR IMPLEMENTING THE COMMITTEE'S RESEARCH STRATEGY   116     Overall Coordination   117     Periodic Reassessments   118     Intramural and Extramural Talent   119     Sustaining Adequate Research Support   119     REFERENCES   122 APPENDIX A:   biographical Information on the Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter   128 APPENDIX B:   Inventory of Particulate-Matter Research   139 TABLES TABLE 1.1   EPA's Review and Implementation Timetable for Particulate-Matter Standards   18 TABLE 2.1   Uncertainties and Highest-Priority Research Needs Identified by EPA for Establishing Standards for Airborne Particulate Matter   28 TABLE 2.2   EPA's Particulate-Matter Research-Strategy Summary   31 TABLE 3.1   Key Scientific Uncertainties Related to the Source-to-Response Framework   37 TABLE 5.1   The Committee's Research Investment Portfolio: Timing and Estimated Costs ($ million/year in 1998 dollars) of Recommended Research on Particulate Matter   101 TABLE 6.1   Estimated FY98 EPA Research Allocations   108 FIGURES FIGURE 1.1   A hypothetical distribution of airborne particle diameters as described by particle number, particle surface area, and particle volume (or mass)   20 FIGURE 3.1   A general framework for integrating particulate-matter research   35

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Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio RESEARCH PRIORITIES FOR AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER: I. IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES AND A LONG-RANGE RESEARCH PORTFOLIO

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