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OCR for page 9
The Changing Circumstances of Marriage
and Fertility in the United States
Christine A. Bachrach
Changes in marriage and childbearing have substantially reshaped the Ameri-
can family in recent decades, with consequences for the economic well-being of
children, the composition and stability of families, and the complexity of family
relations. Increasing rates of out-of-wedlock childbearing, especially visible
among teenagers, have become a focal point of public concern and social policy
debate. Some observers have suggested that these changes result in part from the
effect of welfare programs programs that, it is believed, encourage sex and
childbearing outside of marriage and discourage young people from marrying
and staying married. A careful assessment of scientific evidence regarding the
role of welfare in stimulating out-of-wedlock childbearing or other demographic
changes must begin with a thorough understanding of the nature of the changes
themselves, including what demographic behaviors have changed and how, and
how these changes have been distributed within our population.
This chapter provides an overview of trends in fertility, marriage, and out-of-
wedlock childbearing in the United States, focusing mainly on the period since
1970. It also examines trends in the proximate factors that affect fertility, such as
sexual behavior, contraception and abortion, because if welfare programs have
affected fertility among unmarried women, the effects would have to be chan-
neled through one or more of these factors. The paper concludes with a brief look
at trends in out-of-wedlock childbearing among populations that vary in their
reliance on welfare programs.
Several conclusions are advanced: that changes in marriage have played a
central role in driving the increase in nonmarital births; that changes in marriage
have included not only changes in its frequency and timing but also changes in its
9
OCR for page 10
10
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
function of defining acceptable settings for sexual activity and childbeanng; that
all population groups have participated in these changes but that the changes have
occurred at different rates in different groups; and that despite the ubiquitous
nature of these changes, out-of-wedlock childbearing remains powerfully associ-
ated with socioeconomic disadvantage.
WHAT IS HAPPENING TO FERTILITY?
A quick glance at trends in the U.S. fertility rate (Figure 2-1) reveals that,
since the early 1970s, American women in the aggregate have been bearing
children at a remarkably stable rate. The fertility rate (the number of births per
1,000 women of childbearing age, 15-44) has hovered between about 65 and 70
since 1973 when it fell below 70 for the first time since the Great Depression. The
intervening period from 1940 to 1970 saw, first, increasing fertility rates, culmi
nating with the peak of the baby boom in the late 1950s, and then steadily
declining rates until the early 1970s (Ventura et al., 1995a). Since then, the
overall patterns have remained remarkably stable, with the exception of a slight
rise at the end of the 1980s, now apparently on its way toward reversal (National
Center for Health Statistics, 1996~.
Beneath the surface of this demographic nontrend, however, lurk some im-
portant changes. One of these is the pattern of birth timing. Norman Ryder
showed that trends in period fertility rates are a function of the number of births
200
En
~^ 180
$ 160
140
0
E
o
to
to
Q
a)
to
80
60
40
20
o
Jig_-
__
-
-
_
~_
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1 g90
FIGURE 2-1 Fertility rates, United States: 1930-1993. NOTE: Beginning with 1959,
trend lines are based on registered live births; trend lines for 1930-1959 are based on live
births adjusted for underregistration. SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics
(1996~.
OCR for page 11
CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH
11
women have and the timing of those births (Ryder, 1980~. Over the past two
decades, there has been little variation in the number of births women have first
and second births have accounted for about 75 percent of the total fertility rate
since the mid-1970s (Morgan, 1996~. However, there is much more diversity
now in when women are having children.
Figure 2-2 contrasts the age-specific birth rates in 1972 and 1993 two years
in which the total fertility rate (a function of the sum of these rates) was quite
similar (2,010 and 2,046, respectively). In 1972, the likelihood of giving birth
peaked in the early twenties and declined steeply after age 30. In 1993, birth rates
among women under age 30 had declined relative to their 1972 levels; the peak
age of childbearing had shifted to the late twenties by a slight margin, and the
risks of giving birth during the thirties had increased by about one-third. The
fertility of women aged 30 and older accounted for 29.2 percent of the total
fertility rate in 1993, up from 22.6 percent in 1972. Despite stability in the
volume of childbearing, a substantial shift toward a later and more variable
pattern of birth timing had occurred.
It's worth noting that birth rates for teenagers (15-19) were stable or declin-
ing through most of the 1970s and 1980s, despite the attention given to the
problem of teen childbearing during this period. Teens did participate dispropor-
tionately in the fertility "boomlet" of the late 1980s, with rates for women 15-19
rising 23 percent over a period of 3-4 years beginning in 1987, compared to 8
percent among women in their twenties. However, the most important change in
Rate per 1000 women
140
120
100
80
60
40
o
130
118
i
1. R
62
an
-----1--t3- 116
60
~ 81
1 972
1 993
~15-19 - 20-24 1~25-29 - 30-34 111535-39 ~40-44
--33
FIGURE 2-2 Age-specific birth rates: 1972 and 1993. SOURCE: Ventura et al. (199Sa).
OCR for page 12
2
140
120
100
G)
83 80
E 60
-
40
a) me`
Q MU
Q)
It
o
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
\
111 ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1..1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1,
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
FIGURE 2-3 Marriage rates: 1940-1994. SOURCE: Clarke (1995~.
teen fertility over this period is a change shared by older women as well the
increasing proportion of births that occurred outside of marriage. Trends in
marriage patterns are a critical element of this change, and I turn to them next.
MARRIAGE: DELAYS AND DECLINES
U.S. marriage statistics for the past quarter century paint a grim picture of an
institution that Americans continue to say they value highly. During a period
when the proportion of high school seniors claiming that a good marriage is
"quite or extremely important" to them held steady at over 90 percent for women
and over 85 percent for men (Thornton, 1989), marriage rates appeared to be in
free-fall. The marriage rate for unmarried women aged 15 and older has been
declining since the early 1970s, when it had a modest resurgence following
another steady decline from the postwar peak (Figure 2-3~.
These overall rates tell only part of the story, however. The total first-
marriage rate for women (which shows the percentage that would ever marry if
subjected throughout their lives to the current year's regime of age-specific rates)
declined prior to the mid-1970s but remained fairly stable between 68 percent
and 72 percent from the mid-1970s to 1990, the last year for which data are
available from the Vital Registration System1 (Clarke, 1995~. As in the case of
fertility, what has changed most dramatically is the timing of marriage. First
lit is likely that 1990 will be one of the last years for which detailed marriage statistics are
available from the Vital Registration System. After 1995, the National Center for Health Statistics
plans to collect data on numbers of marriages only.
OCR for page 13
CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH
13
marriage rates for women aged 18-19 plummeted from 151 per 1,000 in 1970 to
53 per 1,000 in 1990 (Figure 2-4~. Rates for women aged 20-24 fell from 220 per
1,000 to 93 per 1,000 during the same penod. Rates for women in their late
twenties and early thirties changed far less, declining during the 1970s but in-
creasing during the 1980s. Among men, trends in marriage were roughly similar,
250
200
150
100
50
o
250
200
150
100
50
o
Rate per 1000 never married men
18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34
Rate per 1000 never married women
18-19 20-24
25-29 30-34
~ 1970 0 1980 ~11990
FIGURE 2-4 First-marriage rates, by age and sex: Marriage Registration Area, 1970,
1980, and 1990.
OCR for page 14
4
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
although men have shown no signs of the rebounding marriage rates observed
during the 1980s among women in their late twenties and thirties.
Data from the Current Population Survey provide another view of marriage
trends based on repeated surveys of large probability samples of all households in
the United States.2 In Figure 2-5, these data show that the proportions of men and
women aged 18-44 who are unmarried has increased steadily in all age groups
since 1970 and that increases in the percentage unmarried have been particularly
steep among those in their twenties ages at which, as we have seen previously,
fertility rates are at their highest. For example, the percentage of unmarried
among women aged 20-24 increased 75 percent, from 39 percent to 69 percent
between 1970 and 1984; the percentage unmarried among men aged 25-29 more
than doubled, from 22 percent to 55 percent (Department of Health and Human
Services, 1995; Saluter, 1996~.
Two qualifying observations are necessary to fill out this picture of declining
marriage and increasing singlehood. First, the chosen starting point for this
review of recent demographic trends, 1970, marks the end of a highly unusual
period for American marriage patterns. Figure 2-6, showing the median age at
first marriage from 1890 to 1994, illustrates that the pattern of early marriage in
the 1950s and 1960s was an exception to a historical pattern of relatively higher
ages at marriage. The median age at first marriage for men is barely higher in
1994 than in 1890; the median age for women, on the other hand, has substan-
tially exceeded its recorded precedents (Saluter, 1996~.
The second qualifying observation is that the delay in marriage does not
signal a corresponding delay in the formation of marriage-like unions. Cohabita-
tion by unmarried partners has increased dramatically over recent decades, and
recent data from the second wave of the National Survey of Families and House-
holds confirms that it is continuing to increase (Bumpass and Sweet, 1995~.
Bumpass and Sweet (1989) have demonstrated that increases in cohabitation
substantially offset declines in marriage between cohorts of women born in 1940-
1944 and 1960-1964. Thus, although only 61 percent of the later cohort married
2It is useful to examine both vital statistics and Current Population Survey data on trends in
marriage because they have complementary strengths and weaknesses. Vital statistics estimates of
age-specific marriage rates are based on samples of marriage records from states participating in the
Marriage Registration Area (MRA). In 1989-1990, the MRA included only 86 percent of the U.S.
population and excluded 8 states (Arizona, Arkansas, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Okla-
homa, Texas, and Washington). Moreover, its samples did not include detailed information on the
characteristics of brides and grooms obtaining nonlicensed California marriages (about 103,000 of
these occurred in 1990). For this and other reasons, data from the MRA samples represent only 77
percent of the marriages that occurred during 1989-1990, and understate marriage rates for the
United States as a whole (Clarke, 1995). Estimates from the Current Population Survey are based on
a national probability sample of households in the United States. The advantage of this data source is
thus in improved geographic coverage; disadvantages include undercoverage of men, blacks, and
persons not in households and the frequent reliance on proxy reports of marital status (Saluter, 1996).
OCR for page 15
CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH
100
80
a)
~ 60
o
c
a)
a)
40
20
o
100
80
E
60
40
20
o
-
,_
, ~+18-19
.~
/
/ ~
~3<
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 94
Year
20-24
ˇ 25-29
30-34
35-44
+18-19
20-24
$ ~ˇ 25-29
-30-34
/: <= ~+35-44
50 55 60 65 70 75
Year
FIGURE 2-5 Percentage unmarried by age:
Health and Human Services (l995~.
15
80 8590 94
1910-1994.SOURCE: Department of
by age 25 (compared with 82 percent of the earlier cohort), the difference in the
percentage entering either a marital or a cohabitational union by age 25 was far
smaller (76 percent and 83 percent, respectively).
THE UBIQUITOUS RISE OF NONMARITAL FERTILITY
At the intersection of these trends in fertility and marriage we find a phenom-
enon that has drawn increasing attention from policy makers and the public:
OCR for page 16
6
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
30
25
20
15
10
Do'
1 1 1
T
. . ~ I
AL rip
o
1 890 1 900 1910 1920 1 930 1940 1 950 1 960 1970 1980 1990 1994
+Men Women
FIGURE 2-6 Median age at first marriage, by sex: 1890-1994. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau
of the Census (1996~.
increasing out-of-wedlock births. Since 1940, the year for which we have the
earliest data, out-of-wedlock childbearing has shown an almost constant increase.
This is true whether one looks at the number of nonmarital births (Figure 2-7, top
panel), the rate at which unmarried women give birth (middle panel), or the
nonmarital birth ratio, which shows the proportion of all births that occur to
unmarried women (bottom panel). In 1993, 31 percent of births were born out-
of-wedlock, up from 4 percent in 1940; and 11 percent in 1970.3
The simplicity and regularity of this upward trend belie considerable com-
plexity and change in the factors that have contributed to it. Smith and Cutright
(1988) have demonstrated that the increase in the nonmarital birth ratio is a
function of four components: the age-specific birth rates for unmarried and for
married women, the proportion of women unmarried at each age, and the age
structure of the population. Since the mid-1970s,
ˇ the population of reproductive age has shifted toward an older age distri-
bution, putting slight downward pressure on the nonmarital birth ratio;
ˇ the percentage of unmarried has increased at each age, as we have seen;
ˇ age-specific birth rates for married women have generally increased, al
3The increase in the percentage of births occurring outside of marriage slowed after 1993, hover-
ing between 32 percent and 33 percent during the years 1994-1996 (Ventura et al., 1997).
OCR for page 17
CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH
Panel 1. Number of births to unmarried women
Number of births in thousands
1 ,400 _
1,200 _
1,000 _
800 _
600 _
400 _
200 . ~
O ~T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
50 60 70 80 90
Year
Panel 2. Birth rate for unmarried women
50
40
30
20
10
o
40
30
20
10
o
17
Rate per 1,000 unmarried women aged 15-44 years
I- ~'
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
,~_
40 50 60 70 80 90
Years
Panel 3. Proportion of births to unmarried women
Percent
1~, I, , , , , , , , 1
_~
40 50 60 70
Years
80 90
FIGURE 2-7 Trends in out-of-wedlock childbearing: 1940-1993. SOURCE: Depart-
ment of Health and Human Services (1995~.
though the overall marital birth rate has declined because the married population
has become increasingly older; and
ˇ age-specific birth rates for unmarried women increased sharply at all ages
(Figure 2-8~; note, however, that this was a reversal from a sharp downward trend
in such rates during the preceding decade for all age groups except teenagers.
The increase in age-specific nonmarital birth rates leveled off in the early l990s.
OCR for page 18
8
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
70
60
50
40
In
,0
o
Rate per 1,000 unmarried women in specified group
I'
Age group
,.~- ~24
~-
, ~1~19
4~*~. ala. ~-a. ~ ~
art__' aft--~
r~ it.
,W, .~. ~`
Ace_ ~
.
Ll I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ~ I I I I I i
1940 1g50 1960 1970 1980 1sso
FIGURE 2-8 Birth rates for unmarried women by age: 1940-1993. SOURCE: Depart-
ment of Health and Human Services (1995~.
Figure 2-9 shows the results of an analysis by Smith and his colleagues
showing the importance of each of these components in contributing to the up-
ward trend in the nonmarital birth ratio for each year between 1960 and 1992.
Their results are shown separately for black and white women. In these figures,
the effect of each of the four components is represented by a line that has an
upward slope if the component was exerting upward pressure on the ratio during
the given year and a downward slope if it was exerting negative pressure. The
steeper the slope of the line, the greater is the upward (or downward) pressure on
the nonmarital birth ratio. The figures show that since the early 1970s, the major
factor driving the increase in the nonmarital birth ratio for black women (top
panel) was the increase in the proportion unmarried. For white women (bottom
panel), both changes in marital status and increased rates of out-of-wedlock
childbearing have been significant. Trends in marital fertility pushed the ratio up
during the 1960s and early 1970s but have since exerted a slight downward
pressure on the ratio (Smith et al., 1996~.
To recap this overview so far, changes in the frequency and timing of mar-
riage have been more pronounced than changes in the frequency and timing of
childbearing during recent decades in the United States. Increases in out-of-
wedlock childbearing have been driven primarily by changes in marriage, but
also by changes in the reproductive behavior of unmarried women. In the next
section, I examine the behavioral trends underlying the changing fertility of
unmarried women.
OCR for page 19
CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH
70
50
40
30
Black Women
Percentage of Non-Marital Births
60 ~ ~1~ ~:
20
10
o
30
20
10
o
60 64 68 72
19
---Age Distnbubon
-Percent Mamed
Nonmantal Fertility Rates
---- Mantal Fertility Rates
60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92
Years
White Women
Percentage of Nonmarital Births
~,:~
76 80 84 88 92
Years
---Age Distribution
-Percent Manied
---Non-marital Fertility
-- - Marital Fertility
FIGURE 2-9 Standardized effects of selected factors on nonmarital birth ratios, by race:
1960-1992. SOURCE: Smith et al. (19961.
PROXIMATE FACTORS: PATHWAYS FOR THE EFFECTS OF
WELFARE ON NONMARITAL FERTILITY
Births to unmarried women occur as the result of a series of behaviors
and choices made by women and their partners. Figure 2-10 illustrates that
choices about whether or not to have sex outside of marriage, whether to use
OCR for page 22
22
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
1 00%
80%
60%
400/0
20%
0%
my=_
.,~,.~..,
.,~,
.,~ ,~
..._
.,~ _
~,~.~
~YYYYYYYYYYY~
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
_,
1 982
1 988
C: No method
ˇSeeking pregnancy
mother method
ˇCondom
Spill
ˇSterilization
FIGURE 2-12 Contraceptive use among unmarried sexually active women 15-44: 1982
and 1988. Department of Health and Human Services (1995~.
from 19 to 14 percent during the period (Department of Health and Human
Services, 1995~. We do not have any reliable data on trends in vigilance in
contraceptive use. Yet we know that contraceptive failure rates are high, ranging
from 7 percent failure during the first 12 months of use among pill users to 31
percent among users of periodic abstinence. Overall, about 16 percent of never-
married contraceptors and 26 percent of formerly married contraceptors using
reversible methods of contraception experience failure in the first 12 months of
method use. Contraceptive failure results in part from a failure of the method and
in part from inconsistent or inaccurate use of the method (Jones and Forrest,
1992~.
Increased sexual activity tends to drive up pregnancy rates; improved contra-
ceptive use tends to drive them down. Theoretically the two could balance out.
In fact, pregnancy rates for unmarried women increased in recent decades. Fig-
ure 2-13 shows the trend in pregnancy rates for married and unmarried women
using an approximate measure based on pregnancies ending in abortion or birth.4
Pregnancy rates for unmarried women increased most rapidly during the 1970s,
4This measure is calculated by combining data on abortion rates by year and marital status with
birth rates in which the year of ``birth,, is moved up by 6 months. Thus, the rates refer to a time
period a few months after conceptions occurred and do not include conceptions ending in spontane-
ous fetal loss (Stanley Henshaw, personal communication).
OCR for page 23
CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
o
Pregnancies per 1000 women 15-44
1 ~
1 1 1
1 ~
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1973 1975 1980 1985 1990
~ Married women + Unmarried women
23
FIGURE 2-13 Estimated rates of pregnancy: 1973-1990. NOTE: Excludes pregnancies
ending in miscarriage or stillbirth. Births are lagged 6 months. SOURCE: Calculated
based on data in Alan Guttmacher Institute (1992~.
remained level during much of the 1980s, but increased again toward the end of
that decade. Pregnancy rates for 1980,1990, and 1991 calculated by Ventura and
her colleagues confirm this pattern and show that the increase during the 1980-
1990 period was confined to unmarried white women: pregnancy rates for un-
married black women fell during this time (Ventura et al., 1995b).
When a pregnancy occurs, whether it is carried to term is strongly influenced
by marital status. The abortion ratio, or the ratio of abortions to all pregnancies
ending in either live birth or abortion, gives a rough measure of the likelihood
that a pregnancy will end in abortion.5 In 1991, the abortion ratio was 8.6 per 100
pregnancies among married women, but 51.2 among unmarried women (Figure
2-14~. Abortion ratios among unmarried women increased sharply in the first
few years following the 1973 Supreme Court decision, from 57 per 100 in 1973 to
66 per 100 in 1977. But since 1979, the ratio has traced a steady decline, which
has accelerated in recent years. Thus, pregnancies to unmarried women have
become less likely to end in abortion, and more likely to end in birth.6
5The missing element, spontaneous fetal loss, occurs in about 15 percent of all pregnancies.
6During 1980-1987, declines in the abortion ratio occurred among white women of all ages, and
among black women at ages 20 and older. Abortion ratios for black teens did not decline. However,
even in 1980, only 44 percent of pregnancies to black teens ended in abortion a ratio substantially
lower than that of older black women and white women of all ages (Henshaw, et al., 1985; Henshaw
and Silverman, 1988; Henshaw et aL,1991).
OCR for page 24
24
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
100
80
60
40
20
o
% ending in abortion
1 ~1 1 + 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1
1973 1975 1980 1985 1990 1991
Year
+ Unmarried women + Married women
FIGURE 2-14 Percentage of pregnancies ending in abortion: married and unmarried
women, 1973-1991. NOTE: % = abortions as percent of abortions+births; births lagged
6 months. SOURCE: Alan Guttmacher Institute (1992~.
If an unmarried woman decides to carry a pregnancy to term, she may still
avoid becoming an unwed mother by marrying before the delivery of the baby.
This practice was common in previous decades but has declined steadily over
time (Figure 2-15~. In 1960-1964,52 percent of first births resulting from out-of-
wedlock pregnancies to women 15-34 years of age were "legitimated" before the
birth by the marriage of the mother; by 1985-1989, only 27 percent were legiti-
mated (Bachu, 1993~. In a recent analysis, Morgan and his associates (1995)
demonstrate that this decline in legitimation has had a substantial impact on the
trend in out-of-wedlock births. Considering only those pregnancies ending in
live birth, they demonstrate that the rate of nonmarital birth would have increased
only marginally between the early 1960s and the mid-1980s if unmarried preg-
nant women had continued to marry between conception and birth at the same
rate as they had in 1963.
Trends in the sexual behavior of unmarried women, and in their choice of
abortion and "shotgun" marriage in response to out-of-wedlock pregnancy, re-
flect important changes in the meaning of marriage in our society. In the 1950s,
when Davis and Blake (1956) first developed their "intermediate variables"
framework, sexual activity was not included as one of the intermediate variables;
marriage was. Their ability to propose marriage as a proxy for regular sexual
exposure reflected the close identification of "sex" and "marriage" at that time.
This identification has been seriously eroded over recent decades, as reflected in
trends in public attitudes about premarital sex. The proportion of women under
OCR for page 25
CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH
100
80
c
a)
CJ
25
60
40
52 52
33 31
27
20
o
1960-64 1965-69 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89
Year of first birth
FIGURE 2-15 Percentage of women marrying between conception and birth of first
child: 1960-1964to 1985-1989. SOURCE: Bachutl991~.
30 agreeing that premarital sex is "not wrong at all" increased from about one-
fifth in the mid-1960s to about half in the mid-1980s. In 1965, half of women
under 30 believed that premarital sex was "always wrong" but by the late 1970s
and during the 1980s, only about 13-14 percent believed this (Thornton, 1989~.
Attitudes towards nonmarital childbearing have shown similar changes (Pagnini
and Rindfuss,1993~. Thus, as marriage has changed in its frequency and timing,
it has also changed in its meaning: the consensus that it provides a normative
boundary defining the acceptable settings for sex and childbearing no longer
exists. Undoubtedly, these changes are mutually reinforcing: the ability to have
sex and bear children outside of marriage permits marriage to be delayed or
forgone; and the changing size and demographics of the unmarried and married
populations contribute to marriage being seen in new ways. In this sense, change
in the reproductive behaviors of unmarried women is inextricably interwoven
with changes in marriage.
TRENDS BY RACE AND SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS
To this point, I have mainly focused on trends in fertility, marriage, and out-
of-wedlock fertility in the U.S. population as a whole. However, since if welfare
programs affect marriage and fertility they are likely to do so primarily among
disadvantaged socioeconomic groups, it would be most useful to replicate these
OCR for page 26
26
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
trend analyses for poor and near-poor populations. However, two basic pitfalls
hinder an examination of trends by poverty status. One is a scarcity of appropri-
ate data.7 The source of our best data on out-of-wedlock childbearing, the vital
registration system, does not collect information on family income. Data from the
Current Population Survey (CPS) provide some measures, but in most years the
CPS collects incomplete data on marital status and fertility. A second pitfall,
which calls into question the use of cross-sectional data such as those collected
by the CPS, is the endogeneity of poverty and marital and fertility behavior. The
CPS measures income (and proxies such as employment, occupation, and educa-
tion) as of (or close to) the survey date, whereas fertility and marital events may
have occurred at any time in the past. Marriage tends to lift people out of poverty;
childbearing often signals a change in living arrangements and another mouth to
feed. Data linking current socioeconomic status with past or even recent fertility
and marriage are therefore of doubtful value in inferring trends in poor popula
tions.
Given these limitations, the strategy adopted here is to examine trend data
according to relatively enduring characteristics that are associated with, but not
identical to, poverty. The first characteristic examined is race. The advantage of
race is that most trend data presented in this chapter are available by race; the
disadvantage is that is it a poor proxy for income or poverty. Most black and
white families are not poor even though, in 1992, poverty was three times as
prevalent among black (31 percent) as among white (9 percent) families (U.S.
Bureau of the Census, 1994~. Differences in fertility and marriage trends among
different racial groups are instructive, however, because they challenge popular
stereotypes.
Table 2-1 provides a summary of some of the key trends examined elsewhere
in this paper among black and white women. Although the direction of trends is
frequently similar in both groups, notable differences exist in the rate at which
change has taken place. The trends for which black women have experienced the
greatest proportional change are all trends related to marriage. Compared with
white women, black women experienced a steeper increase in the percentage
unmarried among women aged 20-29 and a sharper decrease in the percentage
marrying between the conception of a premarital birth and its delivery. The
trends for which white women have experienced greatest change all involve
reproductive behaviors outside of marriage, and in all of these areas the greater
changes among white women have narrowed the differences between the racial
7Published national statistics on marriage and childbearing, and on out-of-wedlock childbearing in
particular, are rarely presented by income or poverty status. My search of published statistical
resources yielded no adequate trend data of this nature covering the period of interest. Trends could
be analyzed using data from the Current Population survey or (to take another approach) by attach-
ing areal data to vital statistics data. However, such analyses would be difficult to interpret (see text)
and are beyond the scope of this chapter.
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CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH
TABLE 2-1 Comparison of Trends: Black and White Women, 1970s-199Os
27
Year Black Women White Women
Rate of births per 1,000 unmarried women
1970
1993
Percentage of unmarried women 20-29
1970
1992
Percentage of women 15- 19
who had premarital sex
1971
1988
Pregnancy rate (including fetal
loss) per 1,000 unmarried women
1980
1991
Abortion ratio, unmarried women
1980
1987
Percentage married before birth:
women 15-34 with premarital pregnancy
resulting in first birth
1970- 1974
1985- 1989
96
84 (-13%)
33
70 (+112%)
51
60 (+18%)
1 Boa
174a (_3%)
52a
Boa (_4%)
18 54
7 (-61%) 34 (-37%)
14
36 (+157%)
23
45 (+96%)
29
51 (+76%)
69
81 (+17%)
72
62 (-14%)
aNonwhite women.
SOURCES: Nonmarital birth rates: Ventura et al. (1995a); percentage unmarried: Saluter (1996);
premarital sex: Hofferth et al. (1987); pregnancy rates: Ventura et al. (1995b); abortion ratios:
Henshaw et al. (1985, 1991); marriage between pregnancy and birth: Bachu (1991).
groups. Rates of teen premarital sex and out-of-wedlock pregnancy and birth
rates have all increased more for whites (and in some cases decreased for blacks);
abortion ratios have dropped more steeply for white than black women. If a
"decoupling" of marriage and sexual/reproductive behavior occurred among black
women, it had already largely occurred before 1970; since 1970, change in the
function of marriage as boundary for these behaviors has primarily affected white
women. Meanwhile, among both races but especially among black women,
marriage itself is increasingly postponed or forgone.
Limited trend data from the Current Population Survey have been published
for a second set of (relatively enduring) characteristics associated with income
and poverty: occupation and education. Tables 2-2 and 2-3 present trends in
several indicators of nonmarital childbearing according to these characteristics.
These data show clearly that, in the period since 1982, changes in out-of-wedlock
childbearing have affected all socioeconomic groups. Between 1982 and 1992,
the fertility of never-married women increased at all educational levels and in
managerial/professional as well as other occupations (Table 2-2~. However, very
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28
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
TABLE 2-2 Percentage of Never-Married Women Age 18-44 Who Had
Given Birth and Children Ever Born per 1,000 Never-Married Women, by
Occupation and Education: June 1982 and June 1992
June 1982
June 1992
Percent Ever Children Percent Ever Children
Characteristic Had a Birth Ever Borna Had a Birth Ever Borna
Education
Less than high school 35.2 746 48.4 1,089
High school 17.2 283 32.5 561
Some college 5.5 74 11.3 178
Occupation
Managerial/professional 3.1 38 8.3 136
Other 11.2 185 17.9 296
aChildren ever born per 1,000 never-married women.
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1993).
strong differentials by educational and occupational status persisted throughout
the period. Between 1990 and 1994, the percentage unmarried among women
who had had a child in the last year increased at all educational levels and for
employed women in all occupational categories (Table 2-3~. However, even
though proportional increases in this crude measure of the percentage of births
out of wedlock were in some cases as great or greater among higher-status women,
the socioeconomic differentials remain very large. Out-of-wedlock childbearing
is still much higher among members of the less advantaged educational and
occupational groups.
TABLE 2-3 Percentage Unmarried at Survey Date Among Women Aged 15
44 Who Had a Child in the Past Year, by Education and Occupation of
Employed Women: June 1990 and June 1994
1990 1994 Change (%)
All women 23.3 25.9 +11.2
Education
Less than high school 44.9 45.6 + 1.6
High school 23.9 30.3 +26.8
Some college 11.1 13.3 +19.8
Employment
Managerial/professional 7.8 10.1 +29.5
Technical, sales 18.3 21.1 +15.3
Service 23.4 29.3 +25.2
Operators, fabricators, laborers 26.5 33.8 +27.5
NOTE: Marital status, employment, occupation, and education measured as of time of survey.
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1996).
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CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH
29
CONCLUSIONS
Out-of-wedlock childbearing has been increasing in the United States for
over half a century. By most measures, the increase accelerated sharply over the
past 15 years and leveled in the early 1990s. Stereotypes equating unwed births
with births to black teenagers reflect the higher ratios of out-of-wedlock births in
these populations, but miss the reality that fewer than one in three such births
occurs to teens, and only 11 percent to black teens. Although rates and ratios of
out-of-wedlock childbearing in different population subgroups have tended to
move toward convergence over recent decades, sharp differentials remain. Non-
marital childbearing is far more prevalent among disadvantaged populations:
those with low educational attainment and those in low-status occupations.
As most people recognize, the trends in out-of-wedlock childbearing de-
scribed here are shared by other industrialized countries as well. In 1992, the
proportion of births to unmarried women in Canada, France, and the United
Kingdom was similar to that in the United States; the proportion in both Denmark
and Sweden, where social welfare policies are dissimilar from the United States,
was substantially higher (Department of Health and Human Services, 1995~.
Out-of-wedlock childbearing has increased in all industrialized Western nations
since 1960, but there are great differences among countries in the extent of
change. As yet, Japan and other newly industrialized Asian countries have not
experienced this change. One of the intriguing opportunities that remains to be
fully explored is the possibility of careful comparative analyses of these trends
across industrialized nations.
The recent focus of public concern on out-of-wedlock childbearing has
tended to place emphasis on the reproductive behavior of unmarried women.
Yet, as this chapter argues, changes in marriage have occupied a central, and
perhaps dominant, role in this drama. The prevalence and timing of marriage
have changed more dramatically over recent decades than the prevalence and
timing of fertility. Further, the meaning of marriage as a boundary line for
behaviors such as sexual activity, coresidential unions, pregnancy, and birth has
diminished sharply. Changes in the reproductive behaviors of unmarried women
have clearly contributed to the increase in out-of-wedlock births, but the chang-
ing behavior of this population may reflect in part its changing composition, since
it has expanded to include many who would have married at an earlier age one or
more decades ago. Women in their teens and twenties continued to give birth at
the same or declining rates during the 1970s and most of the 1980s; the circum-
stances in which they did so were altered by the decline in marriage. Despite the
central role played by marriage trends, relatively little has been invested in under-
standing their causes and their meaning and in ensuring the availability of data
that will permit both careful demographic analysis of trends and theoretically
driven analytic studies. A study of the impact of welfare programs on family and
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30
CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES OF MARRIAGE AND FERTILII Y
reproductive behavior would do well to attend to marriage as well as fertility, and
to ways in which trends in both are interrelated.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This chapter draws on materials developed by Stephanie Ventura et al., for
the Report to Congress on Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing (Department of Health
and Human Services, 1995~. The author gratefully acknowledges the assistance
of Stephanie Ventura, Amy Cox, and Michelle Hindin in providing and updating
charts, and the comments of Sally Clarke, Stephanie Ventura, Susan Newcomer,
and two anonymous reviewers.
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
changing circumstances
