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WELFARE, THE FAMILY, AND
REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR
RESEARCH PERSPECTIVES
Robert A. Moffitt, editor
Committee on Population
Board on Children, Youth, and Families
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council and Institute of Medicine
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS · 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. · Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sci-
ences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Welfare, the family, and reproductive behavior: research
perspectives / Robert A. Moffitt, editor.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-309-06125-3 (pbk.)
1. Public welfare Government policy United States. 2. Child
welfare Government policy United States. 3. Birth
control Government policy United States. 4. Aid to families with
dependent children programs United States. I. Moffitt, Robert A.
(Robert Allan), 1917
HV91 .W478 1998
361.973 ddc21
98-9099
Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution
Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418
Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area).
This report is also available on line at http://www.nap.edu
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
1997-1998
RONALD D. LEE (Chair), Departments of Demography and Economics,
University of California, Berkeley
CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern
University
JOHN BONGAARTS, The Population Council, New York
JOHN B. CASTERLINE, The Population Council, New York
LINDA G. MARTIN, RAND, Santa Monica, California
JANE MENKEN, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado,
Boulder
ROBERT A. MOFFITT, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
MARK R. MONTGOMERY, Department of Economics, State University of
New York, Stony Brook, and The Population Council, New York
W. HENRY MOSLEY, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins
University
JAMES P. SMITH, RAND, Santa Monica, California
BETH J. SOLDO, Department of Demography, Georgetown University
BARNEY COHEN, Director
JOHN HAAGA, Director (until November 1997)
. . .
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BOARD ON CHILDREN, YOUTH, AND FAMILIES
1997-1998
JACK P. SHONKOFF (Chair), Helter Graduate School, Brandeis University
DAVID V.B. BRITT, Children's Television Workshop, New York
LARRY BUMPASS, Department of Sociology, Center for Demography and
Ecology, University of Wisconsin
FERNANDO A. GUERRA, San Antonio Metropolitan Health District
BERNARD GUYER, Department of Maternal and Child Health, Johns
Hopkins University
ALETHA C. HUSTON, Department of Human Ecology, University of Texas,
Austin
RENEE R. JENKINS, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Howard
University Hospital
SARA McLANAHAN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University
ROBERT MICHAEL, Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies,
University of Chicago
PAUL NEWACHECK, Institute of Health Policy Studies and Department of
Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco
MARTHA PHILLIPS, The Concord Coalition, Washington, D.C.
JULIUS B. RICHMOND, Department of Social Medicine, Harvard University
Medical School
TIMOTHY M. SANDOS, TCI Central Inc., Denver
DEBORAH STIPEK, Graduate School of Education, University of California,
Los Angeles
DIANA TAYLOR, Women' s Health Program, Department of Family Health
Care Nursing, University of California, San Francisco
GAIL WILENSKY, Project Hope, Bethesda, Maryland
EVAN CHARNEY, Council, Institute of Medicine (liaison member)
RUTH T. GROSS, Board on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention,
Institute of Medicine (liaison member)
ELEANOR E. MACCOBY, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences
and Education (liaison member)
DEBORAH A. PHILLIPS, Director
V
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CONTRIBUTORS
CHRISTINE A. BACHRACH, Center for Population Research, National
Institute of Child Health and Human Development
REBECCA M. BLANK, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of
the President
ELISABETH BOEHNEN, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
TOM CORBETT, Institute for Research on Poverty and Department of Social
Work, University of Wisconsin, Madison
JANET CURRIE, Department of Economics, University of California, Los
Angeles
JACOB ALEX KLERMAN, RAND, Santa Monica, California
REBECCA MAYNARD, Department of Education, University of Pennsylvania
ROBERT A. MOFFITT, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
JANE MOSLEY, National Center for Children in Poverty, Columbia
University
GARY SANDEFUR, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin,
Madison
v
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin-
guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal
government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National
Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the Na-
tional Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,
and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of
the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the
National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government
and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth
I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered
jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A.
Wulf are chairman and interim vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This project was supported by the Annie E. Casey Foundation and the Kellogg Fund of the
Governing Board of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and
the Institute of Medicine. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this
publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or
agencies that provided support for the project.
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Preface
Over the last decade, welfare reform has figured prominently in the policy
agenda at both the state and the federal levels. One of the most important issues
in the policy debate concerns the effect of welfare programs on individual demo-
graphic behavior. Some of the possibilities most frequently mentioned are that
welfare programs affect labor force participation rates, living arrangements, mi-
gration patterns, and reproductive behavior, with perhaps the biggest fear being
that welfare programs encourage out-of-wedlock childbearing, particularly among
teenagers.
Unfortunately, there is great uncertainty regarding the scientific evidence for
these and other possible effects of income support programs. The policy debate
is filled with unsubstantiated claims, in both directions (that the programs have
no behavioral effects or that they have extremely large behavioral effects). Faced
with conflicting claims, even well-informed participants in the policy process
find it difficult to distinguish whether disagreement is due to differences in data
sources, analytic methods, variability in program or nonprogram factors affecting
the behaviors in question, or the interpretation of results.
In an attempt to clarify some of the issues both for the policy debate and for
setting research priorities, the National Research Council organized a Work-
shop on The Effects of Welfare on the Family and Reproductive Behavior in
May 1996, which brought together experts in demographic and family studies,
along with researchers and policy makers familiar with income support pro-
grams. The chapters in this volume were first presented at that workshop and
cover the lessons from available research and the implications for future
research.
. .
vat
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. . .
vile
PREFACE
This report is the product of the efforts of many people. The Committee on
Population was very fortunate in being able to enlist the services of committee
member Robert Moffitt, whose unflagging efforts in organizing the workshop
and editing the resulting papers have contributed enormously to the volume. In
addition, Ronald Lee, former chair of the Committee on Population, provided
much thoughtful guidance at the formative stages of the project. Most impor-
tantly, the committee is deeply grateful to the various authors for all their fine
work on these papers.
The committee offers appreciative thanks to the Annie E. Casey Foundation
and the Kellogg Fund of the Governing Board of the National Academy of
Sciences for financial support and to Michael Laracy and William O'Hare at the
Casey Foundation for their encouragement and intellectual input.
Finally, the committee thanks the staff at the National Research Council.
John Haaga, former director of the Committee on Population, led the initial staff
work and served as a rapporteur at the workshop. Anne Bridgman, Nancy
Maritato, Kristin McCue, Faith Mitchell, and Deborah Phillips provided essential
input at various stages of the project. Final production took place under the
guidance of Barney Cohen, director of the Committee on Population. Florence
Poillon edited the volume. LaTanya Johnson prepared the papers for publication.
The committee is grateful to them all.
Jane Menken, Chair
Committee on Population
May 1998
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Contents
Preface
1 Introduction
Robert A. Moffitt
The Changing Circumstances of Marriage and Fertility
in the United States
Christine A. Bachrach
Trends in the Welfare System
Rebecca M. Blank
4 The Effect of Welfare on Marriage and Fertility
Robert A. Moffitt
5 Welfare Reform and Abortion
Jacob Alex Klerman
Changing Family Formation Behavior Through
Welfare Reform
Rebecca Maynard, Elisabeth Boehnen, Tom Corbett,
and Gary Sandefur, with Jane Mosley
7 The Effect of Welfare on Child Outcomes
Janet Currie
Mix
v
9
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134
177
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WELFARE, THE FAMILY, AND
REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR
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