Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior

APPLICATION TO MILITARY SIMULATIONS

Richard W. Pew and Anne S. Mavor, editors

Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998



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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior APPLICATION TO MILITARY SIMULATIONS Richard W. Pew and Anne S. Mavor, editors Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Technical Support Services Contract DACW61-96-D-0001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office of the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Modeling human and organizational behavior : application to military simulations / Richard W. Pew and Anne S. Mavor, editors. p. cm. "Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council." Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-06096-6 1. Psychology, Military. 2. Human behavior—Simulation methods. 3. Decision-making. 4. Command of troops. I. Pew, Richard W. II. Mavor, Anne S. III. National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations. U22.3 .M58 1998 355'.001'9—ddc21 98-19705 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). This report is also available online at http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations PANEL ON MODELING HUMAN BEHAVIOR AND COMMAND DECISION MAKING: REPRESENTATIONS FOR MILITARY SIMULATIONS RICHARD W. PEW (Chair), BBN Technologies, GTE Internetworking, Cambridge, MA JEROME BUSEMEYER, Psychology Department, Indiana University KATHLEEN M. CARLEY, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University TERRY CONNOLLY, Department of Management and Policy and College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona, Tucson JOHN R. CORSON, JRC Research and Analysis, L.L.C., Williamsburg, VA KENNETH H. FUNK, II, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis BONNIE E. JOHN, Human-Computer Interaction Institute, Carnegie Mellon University RICHARD M. SHIFFRIN, Psychology Department, Indiana University, Bloomington GREG L. ZACHARIAS, Charles River Analytics, Cambridge, MA ANNE S. MAVOR, Study Director JERRY S. KIDD, Senior Adviser SUSAN R. McCUTCHEN, Senior Project Assistant

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations COMMITTEE ON HUMAN FACTORS WILLIAM C. HOWELL (Chair), Arizona State University, Tempe TERRY CONNOLLY, Department of Management and Policy and College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona, Tucson COLIN G. DRURY, Industrial Engineering Department, University of Buffalo, New York MARTHA GRABOWSKI, Rensselaer Polytechnic and LeMoyne College, New York DANIEL R. ILGEN, Department of Psychology and Department of Management, Michigan State University RICHARD J. JAGACINSKI, Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus LAWRENCE R. JAMES, Department of Management, University of Tennessee BONNIE E. JOHN, Human-Computer Interaction Institute, Carnegie Mellon University TOM B. LEAMON, Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. and Liberty Mutual Research Center for Safety and Health, Hopkinton, MA DAVID C. NAGEL, AT&T Laboratories, Basking Ridge, NJ KARLENE ROBERTS, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley LAWRENCE W. STARK, School of Optometry, University of California, Berkeley KIM J. VICENTE, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, Canada EARL L. WIENER, Department of Management Science, University of Miami GREG L. ZACHARIAS, Charles River Analytics, Cambridge, MA ANNE S. MAVOR, Director JERRY S. KIDD, Senior Adviser SUSAN R. McCUTCHEN, Senior Project Assistant

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations Contents     PREFACE   ix     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1     A Framework for the Development of Models of Human Behavior   2     Recommendations for Infrastructure and Information Exchange   7     A Final Thought   8 1   INTRODUCTION   9     Study Approach and Scope   10     What Is Human Behavior Representation?   10     The Role of Psychological and Organizational Science   14     The Challenge   16     Setting Expectations in the User Community   17     Organization of the Report   18 2   HUMAN BEHAVIOR REPRESENTATION: MILITARY REQUIREMENTS AND CURRENT MODELS   19     Military/Modeling Requirements   19     Example Vignette: A Tank Platoon in the Hasty Defense   20     Military Simulations: Types and Use   33     Current Military Models of Human Behavior and Their Limitations   38     Annex: Current Military Models and Simulations   45

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations 3   INTEGRATIVE ARCHITECTURES FOR MODELING THE INDIVIDUAL COMBATANT   51     General Introduction to Integrative Architectures   52     Review of Integrative Architectures   54     Comparison of Architectures   96     Hybrid Architectures: A Possible Research Path   108     Conclusions and Goals   110 4   ATTENTION AND MULTITASKING   112     Introduction   112     Attention   116     Multitasking   119     Integrating Conceptual Frameworks   125     Conclusions and Goals   127 5   MEMORY AND LEARNING   129     Basic Structures   129     Modeling of the Different Types of Memory   131     Modeling of Human Learning   135     Conclusions and Goals   148 6   HUMAN DECISION MAKING   150     Synopsis of Utility Theory   152     Injecting Variability and Adaptability into Decision Models   156     Incorporating Individual Differences and Moderating States   162     Incorporating Judgmental Errors into Decision Models   163     Conclusions and Goals   169 7   SITUATION AWARENESS   172     Situation Awareness and Its Role in Combat Decision Making   173     Models of Situation Awareness   176     Enabling Technologies for Implementation of Situation Awareness Models   182     Relationships to Other Models   192     Conclusions and Goals   199 8   PLANNING   203     Planning and Its Role in Tactical Decision Making   203     Models for Planning in Military Human Behavior Representations   215     Planning Models in the Artificial Intelligence and Behavioral Science Communities   234     Conclusions and Goals   240

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations 9   BEHAVIOR MODERATORS   242     Introduction   242     External Moderators of Human Behavior   245     Internal Moderators of Human Behavior   250     Modeling Behavior Moderators   259     Conclusions and Goals   268 10   MODELING OF BEHAVIOR AT THE UNIT LEVEL   269     Introduction   269     Why Model the Organizational Unit?   273     Prior Work in Unit-Level Modeling   274     Application Areas for Organizational Unit-Level Models   275     Overarching Issues   289     Organizational Unit-Level Modeling Languages and Frameworks   293     Conclusions and Goals   296 11   INFORMATION WARFARE: A STRUCTURAL PERSPECTIVE   301     Introduction   301     Models of Information Diffusion   304     Models of Belief Formation   310     Role of Communications Technology   315     Conclusions and Goals   316 12   METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES AND APPROACHES   320     The Need for Situation-Specific Modeling   319     A Methodology for Developing Human Behavior Representations   320 13   CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   329     A Framework for the Development of Models of Human Behavior   330     Recommendations for Infrastructure and Information Exchange   340     A Final Thought   341     REFERENCES   343     APPENDIX: BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES   391     INDEX   397

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations Preface This report is the work of the Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations. The panel was established by the National Research Council (NRC) in 1996 in response to a request from the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office of the U.S. Department of Defense. The charge to the panel was to review the state of the art in human behavior representation as applied to military simulations, with emphasis on the challenging areas of cognitive, team, and organizational behavior. The panel formed to meet these goals included experts in individual behavior, organizational behavior, decision making, human factors, computational modeling, and military simulations. The project extended over an 18-month period. At the end of the first phase, in February 1997, the panel published an interim report (Pew and Mavor, 1997) that argued for the need for models of human behavior, summarized a methodology for ensuring the development of useful models, and described selected psychological process models that have the potential to improve the realism with which human-influenced action is represented. In the second phase of the project, the panel conducted an in-depth analysis of the theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling at the individual, unit, and command levels. The result of that analysis is presented in this final report. This report is intended not only for policy makers in the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office and the military services, but also for the broader behavioral science community in the military, other government agencies, industry, and universities, whose modeling efforts can contribute to the development of more realistic and thus more useful military simulations.

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations Many individuals have made a significant contribution to the panel's thinking and to various sections of the report by serving as presenters, consultants, and reviewers. Although all of these individuals provided valuable information, a few played a more direct role in developing this manuscript and deserve special mention. First, we extend our gratitude to Eva Hudlicka of Psychometrix Associates for her substantial contribution to the chapters on situation awareness and behavior moderators; in the latter chapter she provided draft material on modeling the effects of emotion on the cognitive activities of command decision makers. Next, we extend our gratitude to John Anderson of Carnegie Mellon University for his contributions to the discussion of ACT-R, to Stephen Grossberg of Boston University for his contribution on adaptive resonance theory, and to Stephen Deutsch of BBN Technologies, GTE Internetworking, for his work on OMAR. Finally, we offer a special thank you to David Kieras of the University of Michigan for his important insights as a member of the panel through its first phase and as a contributor of key information on EPIC for this volume. Other individuals who provided important information and help include: Laurel Allender, Army Research Laboratory, Human Research and Engineering Directorate; Susan Archer, Micro Analysis and Design; Floyd Glenn, CHI Systems; Paul Lehner, MITRE Corporation; John Laird, University of Michigan; Ron Laughery, Micro Analysis and Design; John Lockett, Army Research Laboratory, Human Research and Engineering Directorate; Commander Dennis McBride, Office of Naval Research; James L. McClelland, Center for the Neural Basis of Cognition; H. Kent Pickett, TRADOC Analysis Center; Douglas Reece, Science Applications International Corporation; Gerard Rinkus, Charles River Analytics; Jay Shively, NASA Ames; Barry Smith, NASA Ames; Magnus Snorrason, Charles River Analytics; and Dave Touretzky, Carnegie Mellon University. To our sponsors, the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, we are most grateful for their interest in the topic of this report and their many useful contributions to the panel's work. We particularly thank Judith Dahmann, James Heusmann, Ruth Willis, and Major Steve Zeswitz, USMC. We also extend our thanks to Lieutenant Colonel Peter Polk for his support and encouragement during the projects first phase. In the course of preparing this report, each member of the panel took an active role in drafting chapters, leading discussions, and reading and commenting on successive drafts. Jerome Busemeyer provided material on learning and decision making; Kathleen Carley drafted chapters on command and control at the unit level and on information warfare; Terry Connolly provided sections on decision making; John Corson provided expertise and drafted material on military needs and operations, Kenneth Funk took the major responsibility for coordinating and drafting material on integrative architectures and on multitasking; Bonnie John contributed significantly to the chapter on integrative architectures; Richard Shiffrin drafted sections on attention and memory; and Greg Zacharias drafted

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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations material on situation awareness and planning. We are deeply indebted to the panel members for their broad scholarship, their insights, and their cooperative spirit. Truly, our report is the product of an intellectual team effort. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Ruzena Bajcsy, Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Pennsylvania; Kevin Corker, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California; Scott Gronlund, Department of Psychology, University of Oklahoma; William Howell, American Psychological Association, Washington, D.C.; John F. Kihlstrom, Department of Psychology, University of California at Berkeley; R. Duncan Luce, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Science, University of California at Irvine; Krishna Pattipati, Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Connecticut; Paul S. Rosenbloom, Department of Computer Science, University of Southern California; Anne Treisman, Department of Psychology, Princeton University; and Wayne Zachary, CHI Systems, Lower Gwynedd, Pennsylvania. Although the individuals listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring panel and the NRC. Staff of the National Research Council made important contributions to our work in many ways. We extend particular thanks to Susan McCutchen, the panel's senior project assistant, who was indispensable in organizing meetings, arranging travel, compiling agenda materials, coordinating the sharing of information among panel members, and managing the preparation of this report. We are also indebted to Jerry Kidd, who provided help whenever it was needed and who made significant contributions to the chapter on the behavior moderators. Finally, we thank Rona Briere, whose editing greatly improved the report. Richard W. Pew, Chair Anne S. Mavor, Study Director Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations

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