in dealing with the specific concerns of the military community. The panel may be able to say which requirements will produce models that behave more like real humans, but this is a different set of priorities from the requirements that will produce models likely to be perceived by simulation users as being more like real individual combatants and military units. If one asks program managers or subject matter experts, they will say they need all the fidelity they can get, but this is not a helpful response in an environment of limited resources where design decisions involve tradeoffs among a set of desirable simulation goals. It is just not known which of the many improvements in human behavior representation will really make a difference in the way a modeled combatant will be viewed as regards meeting the expectancies of the opposing force and minimizing the ability to "game" the simulation. This issue is analogous to the traditional problem of simulation fidelity. Analysts would like to have high fidelity only where it matters, but no one has shown clearly just what aspects of fidelity matter. The situation is no different with human behavioral representation.


Chapter 2 characterizes the current and future modeling and simulation requirements of the military and reviews several existing military modeling efforts. The central portion of the report comprises chapters that focus on the science and technology of human behavior representation. Chapter 3 provides a general review of several integrative architectures for modeling the individual combatant. Each review includes a brief discussion of how the architecture has been applied in the military context. Chapters 4 through 9 are devoted to an analysis of the theory, data, and state of modeling technology of individual human behavior in six key areas: attention and multitasking (Chapter 4), memory and learning (Chapter 5), decision making (Chapter 6), situation awareness (Chapter 7), planning (Chapter 8), and behavior moderators (Chapter 9). The emphasis in these chapters is on the current state of research and development in the field under review. To the extent possible, the focus is on the behavioral theory on which understanding of cognitive mechanisms is based. However, in the chapters on situation awareness and planning, where less behavioral theory exists, we focus on the strengths and weakness of current modeling approaches. Chapters 10 and 11 address issues and modeling efforts at the organizational level: Chapter 10 covers command, control, and communications (C3), whereas Chapter 11 deals with belief formation and diffusion, topics of particular interest in the context of information warfare. Chapters 3 through 11 each conclude by presenting conclusions and goals for the short, intermediate, and long terms in their respective areas. Chapter 12 presents general methodological guidelines for the development, instantiation, and validation of models of human behavior. Finally, Chapter 13 provides the panel's conclusions and recommendations regarding a programmatic framework for research, development, and implementation and for infrastructure/information exchange.

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