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Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior: Application to Military Simulations
and information exchange that can help promote vigorous and informed development of such models. Additional recommendations that relate to specific topics addressed in the report are presented as goals in the respective chapters.
A FRAMEWORK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODELS OF HUMAN BEHAVIOR
The panel has formulated a general framework that we believe can guide the development of models of human behavior for use in military simulations. This framework reflects the panel's recognition that given the current state of model development and computer technology, it is not possible to create a single integrative model or architecture that can meet all the potential simulation needs of the services. Figure 13.1 presents the elements of a plan for DMSO to apply in pursuing the development of models of human behavior to meet short-, intermediate-, and long-term goals. For the short term (as shown on the left side of the figure), the panel believes it is important to collect real-world, war-game, and laboratory data in support of the development of new models and the development and application of human model accreditation procedures. For the intermediate term (as shown in the center of the figure), we believe DMSO should extend the scope of useful task analysis and encourage sustained model development in focused areas. And for the long term (as shown on the right hand side of the figure), we believe DMSO should advocate theory development and behavioral research that can lead to future generations of models of human and organizational behavior. Together, as illustrated in Figure 13.1, these initiatives constitute a program plan for human behavior representation development for many years to come.
Work on achieving these short-, intermediate-, and long-term goals should begin concurrently. The panel recommends that these efforts proceed in accordance with four themes, listed below in order of priority and discussed in more detail in the following subsections:
Collect and disseminate human performance data.
Create accreditation procedures for models of human behavior.
Support sustained model development in focused domains.
Support theory development and basic research in relevant areas.
Collect and Disseminate Human Performance Data
As indicated on the left of Figure 13.1, the panel has concluded that all levels of model development depend on the sustained collection and dissemination of human behavior data. Figure 13.2 expands on this requirement by elaborating the range of data collection needs, which extend from real-world field data to laboratory studies of basic human capacities. Examples of salient field research are