The Demography of Forced Migration

Summary of a Workshop

Holly Reed, John Haaga, and Charles Keely, editors

Committee on Population

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, DC
1998



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--> The Demography of Forced Migration Summary of a Workshop Holly Reed, John Haaga, and Charles Keely, editors Committee on Population Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, DC1998

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--> NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council (NRC), whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is chairman of the National Research Council. This project was funded by a grant from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organization that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06141-5 Additional copies of this report are available from:National Academy Press2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). This report is also available on line at http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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--> Committee on Population JANE MENKEN (Chair), Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University JOHN BONGAARTS, The Population Council, New York DAVID A. LAM, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor LINDA G. MARTIN, RAND, Santa Monica, California MARK R. MONTGOMERY, The Population Council, New York, and Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook W. HENRY MOSLEY, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University ALBERTO PALLONI, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison JAMES P. SMITH, RAND, Santa Monica, California BETH J. SOLDO, Department of Demography, Georgetown University LINDA J. WAITE, Population Research Center, University of Chicago BARNEY COHEN, Director HOLLY REED, Research Associate LATANYA JONSON, Senior Project Assistant

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--> Participants Workshop on the Demography of Forced Migration Presenters THOMAS ARGENT, U.S. Committee for Refugees, Washington, D.C. JON BENNETT, The Global IDP Survey, Oxford, England RICHARD BLACK, School of African and Asian Studies, University of Sussex BRENT BURKHOLDER, International Emergency and Refugee Health Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services GREGORY GARBINSKY, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development STEVEN HANSCH, Refugee Policy Group, Washington, D.C. ALLAN G. HILL, Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University KENNETH HILL, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University BELA HOVY, Program Coordination Section, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva, Switzerland CHARLES KEELY, Department of Demography, Georgetown University W. COURTLAND ROBINSON, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University THE HONORABLE THOMAS C. SAWYER, U.S. House of Representatives SUSANNE SCHMEIDL, Consultant, Program Coordination Section, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva, Switzerland RONALD WALDMAN, BASICS, Arlington, Virginia MYRON WEINER, Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Other Participants JENNIFER ADAMS, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development NAOMI BLUMBERG, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development GILBERT BURNHAM, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University BARNEY COHEN, Committee on Population, National Research Council PETER J. DONALDSON, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C. LINDA GORDON, Office of Policy and Planning, U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service JOHN HAAGA, Committee on Population, National Research Council

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--> DAVID HAINES, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, George Mason University KIMBERLY HAMILTON, The Howard W. Gilman Foundation, New York NANCY PENDARVIS HARRIS, John Snow, Inc., Arlington, Virginia STEVEN HAWKINS, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development MIN LIU, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C. CAROLYN MAKINSON, The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, New York JAMES McCARTHY, Center for Population and Family Health, Columbia University FAITH MITCHELL, Division on Social and Economic Studies, National Research Council BARBARA MONAHAN, CARE International, Atlanta PAULA NERSESIAN, BASICS, Arlington, Virginia KATHLEEN NEWLAND, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C. SHIRLIE PINKHAM, Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, U.S. Department of State HOLLY REED, Committee on Population, National Research Council PAUL SPIEGEL, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University ELLEN STARBIRD, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development JEREMIAH SULLIVAN, Demographic and Health Surveys, Macro International, Calverton, Maryland SUSAN TOOLE, Women's Commission for Refugee Women and Children, New York BARBARA BOYLE TORREY, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council SAMANTHA WHEELER, The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, New York MICHAEL WHITE, Department of Sociology, Brown University BRADLEY WOODRUFF, International Emergency and Refugee Health Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services HANIA ZLOTNIK, Population Division, United Nations, New York

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--> Acknowledgments This report summarizes presentations and discussions at the Workshop on the Demography of Forced Migration, organized by the Committee on Population of the National Research Council (NRC), in Washington, DC, November 6-7, 1997. The workshop was funded by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. The workshop would not have been possible without the efforts of several people, but two deserve special recognition. The committee was extremely fortunate in being able to enlist the services of Professor Charles Keely of Georgetown University, a member emeritus of the Committee on Population, who collaborated on the project and helped ensure that it was a success. The committee is indebted to Carolyn Makinson of the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation for her request that led to the workshop and for her encouragement and intellectual guidance during the development of the workshop. The committee is grateful to the staff at the National Research Council, who made it all possible. Holly Reed, research associate for the committee, provided a constant intellectual and managerial presence for the project, from the organization of the workshop to the publication of this report. Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports for the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, skillfully edited the manuscript and guided it through the review process. The work was carried out under the general direction of John Haaga and Barney Cohen, the former and current directors of the committee, respectively. The report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the

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--> NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the purpose of the activity. The content of the review comments and the draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We think the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Caroline H. Bledsoe, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University; W. Henry Mosley, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University; Alberto Palloni, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin; and T. Paul Schultz, Department of Economics, Yale University. While these individuals provided constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC. Most of all, of course, we are grateful to all the dedicated participants in the workshop, whose ideas and comments are summarized here; we hope that this publication helps ensure that their work will continue to contribute to the growing international field of forced migration studies. JANE MENKEN, CHAIR COMMITTEE ON POPULATION

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--> Contents     Introduction   1     Population Estimates   3     Defining the Status of Forced Migrants,   3     Estimating Forced Migrant Populations,   7     Differences Between Data Sources,   8     Practical and Political Issues Surrounding Data Collection,   9     Estimating Internally Displaced Populations,   12     Population Composition and Vital Rates   14     Estimating Population Composition,   14     Estimating Mortality Rates,   15     Estimating Fertility Rates,   18     Opportunities for Further Work   19     Potential Use of Sample Surveys,   19     Possibilities for Future Research and Collaboration,   20     Conclusions   22     References   23     Appendix: Workshop Agenda   25     Selected Publications: Committee on Population   29

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