risks of a normal launch and catastrophic abort, the subcommittee believes that it would be appropriate for the Air Force to present risks for the normal and aborted launches separately or to provide both separate conditional risks and combined risks.

The Air Force should ensure that any TWA exposure estimates used to estimate risk are the maximum values possible for that averaging time. For example, the maximum 30-min concentration passing over an exposure location should be the value compared with a 30-min ERF or effect threshold.

The subcommittee also recommends that the Air Force evaluate the relative accuracies of the exposure estimates from REEDM and the ERFs (or effect thresholds suggested here). If the Air Force can determine whether it is the exposure or effects component of LATRA that is the more serious limit to the model's accuracy in predicting risk, it can invest efforts in improving the less accurate component.



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