Longitudinal Surveys of Children

Kirsten K. West Robert M. Hauser Terri M. Scanlan, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Board on Children, Youth, and Families

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council | Institute of Medicine

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1998



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--> Longitudinal Surveys of Children Kirsten K. West Robert M. Hauser Terri M. Scanlan, Editors Committee on National Statistics Board on Children, Youth, and Families Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council | Institute of Medicine NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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--> NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The project that is the subject of this report is supported by funds provided by the National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06192-X Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-87275 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press , 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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--> Committee On National Statistics 1997-1998 NORMAN M. BRADBURN (Chair), National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago JULIE DAVANZO, RAND, Santa Monica, California WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University JOHN F. GEWEKE, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis ERIC A. HANUSHEK, W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy and Department of Economics, University of Rochester RODERICK J. A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan THOMAS A. LOUIS, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Department of Economics, Yale University JANET L. NORWOOD, The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. EDWARD B. PERRIN, Department of Health Services, University of Washington PAUL R. ROSENBAUM, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania KEITH F. RUST, Westat, Inc., Rockville, Maryland FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO, Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis MIRON L. STRAF, Director ANDREW A. WHITE, Deputy Director

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--> Board On Children, Youth, And Families 1997-1998 JACK P. SHONKOFF (Chair), Brandeis University DAVID V. B. BRITT, Children's Television Workshop, New York, New York LARRY BUMPASS, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin FERNANDO A. GUERRA, San Antonio Metropolitan Health District, San Antonio, Texas BERNARD GUYER, Department of Maternal and Child Health, Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene ALETHA C. HUSTON, Department of Human Ecology, University of Texas at Austin RENÉE R. JENKINS, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Howard University SARA McLANAHAN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University ROBERT MICHAEL, Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago PAUL NEWACHECK, Institute of Health Policy Studies and Department of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco MARTHA PHILLIPS, The Concord Coalition, Washington, D.C. JULIUS B. RICHMOND, Department of Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School TIMOTHY M. SANDOS, TCI Education Division, Denver, Colorado DEBORAH STIPEK, Graduate School of Education, University of California, Los Angeles DIANA TAYLOR, Women's Health Program, Department of Family Health Care Nursing, University of California, San Francisco GAIL WILENSKY, Project Hope, Bethesda, Maryland EVAN CHARNEY (Liaison), Institute of Medicine RUTH GROSS (Liaison), Board on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention, Institute of Medicine ELEANOR MACCOBY (Liaison), Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council DEBORAH PHILLIPS, Director

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--> Workshop Participants ROBERT M. HAUSER (Workshop Chair), Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin, Madison CHRISTINE BACHRACH, Center for Population Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health PAULA BAKER, Center for Human Resource Research, Ohio State University RICHARD BAVIER, Office of Management and Budget BENNETT BERTENTHAL, National Science Foundation STEPHEN BUKA, Harvard University LARRY BUMPASS, University of Wisconsin, Madison LESLIE CHRISTOVICH, Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture ROBERT DALRYMPLE, Office of Analysis and Evaluation, Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture JOHN ENDAHL, Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture JEFF EVANS, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health AMY FINKELSTEIN, Council of Economic Advisers SARAH FRIEDMAN, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health JOHN GOERING, Office of Research, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development JEANNE GRIFFITH, Division of Science Resources Studies, National Science Foundation MARIA HANRATTY, Council of Economic Advisers SUSAN HAUAN, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services DON HERNANDEZ, Board on Children, Youth, and Families, National Research Council SANDRA HOFFERTH, Institute of Social Research, University of Michigan DAVID HUIZINGA, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado GUILLERMINA JASSO, New York University NANCY KIRKENDALL, U.S. Office of Management and Budget ROBERT KOMINSKI, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census PAMELA LATTIMORE, National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice MARY CLARE LENNON, National Center for Children in Poverty ROSE LI, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health MICHAEL LOPEZ, Administration on Children, Youth, and Families JOHN LOVE, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.

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--> JENNIFER MADANS, Vital and Health Statistics Systems, National Center for Health Statistics GILLES MONTIGNY, Statistics Canada KRISTIN MOORE, Child Trends, Inc. RANDALL OLSEN, Center for Human Resource Research, Ohio State University JEFFREY OWINGS, School and Family Longitudinal Studies Program, National Center for Education Statistics HELEN RAIKES, Administration on Children, Youth, and Families SARAH REBER, Council of Economic Advisers KERRY RICHTER, Child Trends, Inc. PATRICIA RUGGLES, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services MARK SHRODER, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HOWARD SILVER, Consortium of Social Science Associations LOUISA TARULLO, Administration on Children, Youth, and Families KATHERINE TOUT, Child Trends, Inc. JAMES TRUDEAU, National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice J. RICHARD UDRY, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina JOHN VEUM, Bureau of Labor Statistics CHRISTY VISHER, National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice DANIEL WEINBERG, U.S. Bureau of the Census JERRY WEST, National Center for Educational Statistics, U.S. Department of Education MARVIN WOLFGANG, University of Pennsylvania MARTY ZASLOW, Child Trends, Inc. National Research Council Staff NANCY GEYELIN, Project Assistant, Board on Children, Youth, and Families JEFFREY KOSHEL, Study Director, Committee on National Statistics ANU PEMMARAZU, Research Assistant, Committee on National Statistics DEBORAH PHILLIPS, Director, Board on Children, Youth, and Families TERRI SCANLAN, Program Specialist, Committee on National Statistics MIRON STRAF, Director, Committee on National Statistics BARBARA BOYLE TORREY, Executive Director, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education KIRSTEN WEST, Research Associate, Committee on National Statistics ANDREW WHITE, Deputy Director, Committee on National Statistics

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--> Acknowledgments The Committee on National Statistics and the Board on Children, Youth, and Families would like to thank all who participated in the workshop on longitudinal research on children, sharing their expertise, experiences, and concerns through stimulating discussions and for their thoughts and comments that lent to the shaping of this report. We especially thank Robert Hauser of the University of Wisconsin for serving as chair. We also gratefully acknowledge the contributions of those who worked to organize the workshop and prepare this report. Miron Straf, Deborah Phillips, and Andrew White led and oversaw the undertaking of the workshop, from its development to the preparation of this report. Kirsten West took the major responsibility for organizing the workshop, preparing an initial draft of the workshop summary and responding to reviewers' comments. Terri Scanlan assisted in organizing the workshop and preparing the report for publication. We are grateful to Anne Bridgman, who made valuable revisions on initial drafts; Barbara Bodling, who provided the editing; and to Eugenia Grohman, who oversaw the review process. With sadness, we acknowledge the untimely death of our friend and colleague, Marvin E. Wolfgang. He was a distinguished criminologist and scholar of longitudinal surveys of delinquency. We are privileged to have had him join us for this workshop. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in

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--> making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Larry Bumpass, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin; Julie DaVanzo, RAND, Santa Monica, California; Greg Duncan, Center for Urban Affairs, Northwestern University; Sara McLanahan, Office of Population Research, Princeton University; William O'Hare, Anne E. Casey Foundation, Baltimore, Maryland; Paul R. Rosenbaum, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; and Jay Teachman, Department of Human Development, Washington State University. Although the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committees and the NRC.

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--> Contents     LIST OF SURVEYS REPRESENTED   xi     LONGITUDINAL SURVEYS OF CHILDREN   1     Background   1     Major Issue Areas   3     Next Steps   13     References   15     APPENDIXES         ASurvey Descriptions   19     BSurvey Characteristics   73     CWorkshop Agenda   109

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--> List of Surveys Represented British National Child Development Study (NCDS) Representative: Paula Baker Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) Representative: Gilles Montigny Children and Young Adults of the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth Representative: Randall Olsen Delinquency in a Birth Cohort in the People's Republic of China Representative: Marvin Wolfgang Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth and Kindergarten Cohorts (ECLS) Representative: Jerry West Early Head Start Research and Evaluation Project Representative: John M. Love National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS:1988) Representative: Jeffrey Owings National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) Representative: J. Richard Udry National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 (NLSY79) Representative: Randall Olsen National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 (NLSY97) Representative: John Veum New Immigrant Survey Pilot Study Representative: Guillermina Jasso

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--> National Institute for Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care Representative: Sarah Friedman Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) Representative: Sandra Hofferth Program of Research on the Causes and Correlates of Delinquency: Denver Youth Survey, Pittsburgh Youth Study, Rochester Youth Development Survey Representative: David Huizinga Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods Representative: Stephen Buka Survey of Program Dynamics for Assessing Welfare Reform (SPD) Representative: Don Hernandez Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) Representative: Robert M. Hauser

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