The Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft Project

An Interim Review of Science and Progress

Panel on Atmospheric Effects of Aviation

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1998



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--> The Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft Project An Interim Review of Science and Progress Panel on Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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--> NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NASW-4938 order No. 109. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06095-8 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area) Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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--> PANEL ON THE ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF AVIATION ALBERT J. KAEHN (Chair), Brigadier General, U.S. Air Force, retired JACK G. CALVERT, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University (emeritus) ANTONY D. CLARKE, University of Hawaii, Honolulu DIETER H. EHHALT, Institut für Atmosphärische Chemie, Jülich, Germany DAVID J. ERICKSON III, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado CLAIRE GRANIER, Université Paris, France; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado EDWARD M. GREITZER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge PHILIPPE MIRABEL, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York W. GEORGE N. SLINN, Cascade Scientific Research Corporation, Richland, Washington KNUT H. STAMNES, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Former panel members active in the writing of this report: DONALD W. BAHR, retired (formerly with General Electric Aircraft Engines) JAMES R. HOLTON, University of Washington, Seattle HAROLD S. JOHNSTON, University of California, Berkeley RUTH A. RECK, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois YUK L. YUNG, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena Staff ELLEN F. RICE, Study Director LAURIE S. GELLER, Staff Officer DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant

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--> BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), International Technology Corporation, Torrance, California SUSAN K. AVERY, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts THOMAS J. LENNON, Sonalysts, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts Staff GREGORY H. SYMMES, Acting Director LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer ELLEN F. RICE, Reports Officer LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant KELLY NORSINGLE, Senior Project Assistant TENECIA A. BROWN, Project Assistant

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--> COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG Incorporated, St. George, Utah THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park MARY LOU ZOBACK, United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California Staff ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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--> The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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--> Preface The Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) project is the stratosphere-oriented half of NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP). A component of the High-Speed Research Program, AESA is a comprehensive effort to predict the atmospheric impacts of a future fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the stratosphere. AESA, which began in FY 1990, completed its first phase and issued an assessment report in November 1995. NASA issued an interim assessment in 1993, which was evaluated by an NRC Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft in a document issued in 1994. The project has now entered a second phase; its final assessment report is due in late 1998. The present review of AESA is the product of the NRC Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation (PAEAN). PAEAN members were selected to provide expertise in relevant fields that include field observations, laboratory chemistry, atmospheric dynamics and modeling, aircraft engines, and climate. The charge from its NASA sponsor, AEAP, is to provide assessment of and guidance to AEAP by evaluating the appropriateness of the AEAP's research plan, appraising the project-sponsored results relative to the current state of scientific knowledge, identifying key scientific uncertainties, and suggesting research activities likely to reduce those uncertainties. In 1997 the panel published Interim Review of the Subsonic Assessment Project and An Interim Assessment of AEAP's Emissions Characterization and Near-Field Interactions Elements; this report completes PAEAN's first evaluation of AEAP's activities. While the effects of the current subsonic fleet are perhaps of more urgent concern at the moment, PAEAN has been asked to assess how well the state of

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--> scientific knowledge will allow an informed decision to be made at the end of 1998 regarding the possible atmospheric impact of a future fleet of high-speed civil transport aircraft. The purposes of this panel's report on AESA are two: to evaluate the progress of AESA-sponsored research since 1990, and to provide recommendations for future direction of the project. When PAEAN was formed, it included sixteen people. To produce its first reports, it broke up into working groups—supersonic/stratospheric, subsonic/tropospheric, and emissions. The original stratospheric group put together the initial draft of this document, and we thank them for their efforts. We appreciate the skill and perseverance of our study director and editor, Ellen Rice; the knowledgeable assistance of staff officer Laurie Geller; and the administrative support of Doris Bouadjemi. Last, we are grateful to the many people, both those involved with AEAP and those outside it, who through briefings and reports have kept us apprised of the progress of AESA and the science. ALBERT J. KAEHN, JR. PAEAN CHAIR

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--> Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the final report is the responsibility of the NRC and the study committee, and not the responsibility of the reviewers. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals, who are neither officials nor employees of the NRC, for their participation in the review of this report: Thomas E. Graedel, Yale University Donald M. Hunten, University of Arizona Robert D. Hudson, University of Maryland Conway B. Leovy, University of Washington Lynn M. Russell, Princeton University Anne K. Smith, National Center for Atmospheric Research Paul H. Wine, Georgia Institute of Technology While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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--> Contents     Executive Summary   1 1   Introduction and History   5 2   Scientific Background for HSCT Concerns   8     Atmospheric Structure and Dynamics   8     Gas-Phase Ozone Photochemistry   16     Heterogeneous Chemistry in the Stratosphere   18     Atmospheric Measurements   21 3   Ozone Reduction by HSCT-Emitted Nitrogen Oxides   23     A History   24     Scenarios and Conditions   26     Modeling HSCT Ozone Reduction   29     Model Results Reported in 1995   32 4   Outstanding Issues   36     Atmospheric Dynamics and Transport   36     Polar Processing of HSCT Exhaust   37     Model Development   39     Modeling the Wake   40     Climate Effects of HSCT Exhaust   42     Uncertainties and Unpredictabilities   43 5   Recommendations   46     References   49     Acronyms and Other Initialisms   55

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