NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NASW-4938 order No. 109. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency.
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PANEL ON THE ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF AVIATION
ALBERT J. KAEHN (Chair), Brigadier General,
U.S. Air Force, retired
JACK G. CALVERT,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
GEORGE F. CARRIER,
Harvard University (emeritus)
ANTONY D. CLARKE,
University of Hawaii, Honolulu
DIETER H. EHHALT,
Institut für Atmosphärische Chemie, Jülich, Germany
DAVID J. ERICKSON III,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
CLAIRE GRANIER,
Université Paris, France; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado
EDWARD M. GREITZER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
PHILIPPE MIRABEL,
Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER,
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York
W. GEORGE N. SLINN,
Cascade Scientific Research Corporation, Richland, Washington
KNUT H. STAMNES,
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Former panel members active in the writing of this report:
DONALD W. BAHR, retired (formerly with General Electric Aircraft Engines)
JAMES R. HOLTON,
University of Washington, Seattle
HAROLD S. JOHNSTON,
University of California, Berkeley
RUTH A. RECK,
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois
YUK L. YUNG,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
Staff
ELLEN F. RICE, Study Director
LAURIE S. GELLER, Staff Officer
DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair),
International Technology Corporation, Torrance, California
SUSAN K. AVERY, CIRES,
University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART,
State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER,
State University of New York, Stony Brook
DONALD M. HUNTEN,
University of Arizona, Tucson
CHARLES E. KOLB,
Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. LENNON,
Sonalysts, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
MARK R. SCHOEBERL,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE,
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
Staff
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Acting Director
LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer
ELLEN F. RICE, Reports Officer
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant
KELLY NORSINGLE, Senior Project Assistant
TENECIA A. BROWN, Project Assistant
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JERRY F. FRANKLIN,
University of Washington, Seattle
B. JOHN GARRICK,
PLG Incorporated, St. George, Utah
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE,
Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE,
Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
HUGH C. MORRIS,
Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
H. RONALD PULLIAM,
University of Georgia, Athens
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK,
United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
Staff
ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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Preface
The Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) project is the stratosphere-oriented half of NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP). A component of the High-Speed Research Program, AESA is a comprehensive effort to predict the atmospheric impacts of a future fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the stratosphere. AESA, which began in FY 1990, completed its first phase and issued an assessment report in November 1995. NASA issued an interim assessment in 1993, which was evaluated by an NRC Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft in a document issued in 1994. The project has now entered a second phase; its final assessment report is due in late 1998.
The present review of AESA is the product of the NRC Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation (PAEAN). PAEAN members were selected to provide expertise in relevant fields that include field observations, laboratory chemistry, atmospheric dynamics and modeling, aircraft engines, and climate. The charge from its NASA sponsor, AEAP, is to provide assessment of and guidance to AEAP by evaluating the appropriateness of the AEAP's research plan, appraising the project-sponsored results relative to the current state of scientific knowledge, identifying key scientific uncertainties, and suggesting research activities likely to reduce those uncertainties. In 1997 the panel published Interim Review of the Subsonic Assessment Project and An Interim Assessment of AEAP's Emissions Characterization and Near-Field Interactions Elements; this report completes PAEAN's first evaluation of AEAP's activities.
While the effects of the current subsonic fleet are perhaps of more urgent concern at the moment, PAEAN has been asked to assess how well the state of
scientific knowledge will allow an informed decision to be made at the end of 1998 regarding the possible atmospheric impact of a future fleet of high-speed civil transport aircraft. The purposes of this panel's report on AESA are two: to evaluate the progress of AESA-sponsored research since 1990, and to provide recommendations for future direction of the project.
When PAEAN was formed, it included sixteen people. To produce its first reports, it broke up into working groups—supersonic/stratospheric, subsonic/tropospheric, and emissions. The original stratospheric group put together the initial draft of this document, and we thank them for their efforts. We appreciate the skill and perseverance of our study director and editor, Ellen Rice; the knowledgeable assistance of staff officer Laurie Geller; and the administrative support of Doris Bouadjemi. Last, we are grateful to the many people, both those involved with AEAP and those outside it, who through briefings and reports have kept us apprised of the progress of AESA and the science.
ALBERT J. KAEHN, JR.
PAEAN CHAIR
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the final report is the responsibility of the NRC and the study committee, and not the responsibility of the reviewers. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals, who are neither officials nor employees of the NRC, for their participation in the review of this report:
Thomas E. Graedel, Yale University
Donald M. Hunten, University of Arizona
Robert D. Hudson, University of Maryland
Conway B. Leovy, University of Washington
Lynn M. Russell, Princeton University
Anne K. Smith, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Paul H. Wine, Georgia Institute of Technology
While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
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