MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE

Panel on Manufacturing Process Controls

Committee on Industrial Technology Assessments

National Materials Advisory Board

Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

National Research Council

Publication NMAB-487-2

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1998



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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE Panel on Manufacturing Process Controls Committee on Industrial Technology Assessments National Materials Advisory Board Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council Publication NMAB-487-2 NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an advisor to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This study by the National Materials Advisory Board was conducted under a contract with the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the anthor(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Available in limited supply from: National Materials Advisory Board 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 202-334-3505 nmab@nas.edu Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press Box 285 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-06184-9 Printed in the United States of America. Cover: graphic courtesy of Dr. Stephen Thaler, Imagination Engines, Inc. [www.imagination-engines.com].

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE PANEL ON MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS GARY A. BAUM (chair), Institute of Paper Science and Technology, Atlanta, Georgia THOMAS G. DEVILLE, Bechtel Technology and Consulting, San Francisco, California RICHARD J. EBERT, Alcoa Technical Center, Alcoa Center, Pennsylvania DENNIS K. KILLINGER, University of South Florida, Tampa STEVEN R. LECLAIR, U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio JAY LEE, United Technologies Research Center, East Hartford, Connecticut FRANCIS C. MCMICHAEL, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JORGE L. VALDES, Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, New Jersey National Materials Advisory Board Staff THOMAS E. MUNNS, Senior Program Officer AIDA C. NEEL, Senior Project Assistant BONNIE SCARBOROUGH, Research Associate National Materials Advisory Board Liaison KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design Liaison CHARLES W. HOOVER, JR., Polytechnic University, Brooklyn, New York Government Liaison TIMOTHY MCINTYRE, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C.

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE COMMITTEE ON INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS R. RAY BEEBE (chair), consultant, Tucson, Arizona GARY A. BAUM, Institute of Paper Science and Technology, Atlanta, Georgia PHILIP H. BRODSKY, Monsanto Company, St. Louis, Missouri JOHN V. BUSCH, IBIS Associates, Wellesley, Massachusetts NORMAN A. GJOSTEIN, consultant, Dearborn, Michigan FRANCIS C. MCMICHAEL, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania MAXINE L. SAVITZ, AlliedSignal Aerospace Corporation, Torrance, California Government Liaisons DENISE SWINK, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. JAMES E. QUINN, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C.

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE NATIONAL MATERIALS ADVISORY BOARD ROBERT A. LAUDISE (chair), Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, New Jersey G.J. ABBASCHIAN, University of Florida, Gainesville MICHAEL I. BASKES, Sandia/Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California JESSE L. BEAUCHAMP, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena FRANCIS DISALVO, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York EARL DOWELL, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina EDWARD C. DOWLING, Cleveland Cliffs, Inc., Cleveland, Ohio THOMAS EAGAR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge ANTHONY G. EVANS, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOHN A.S. GREEN, The Aluminum Association, Washington, D.C. SIEGFRIED S. HECKER, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico JOHN H. HOPPS, Morehouse College, Atlanta, Georgia MICHAEL JAFFE, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey LISA KLEIN, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey SYLVIA M. JOHNSON, SRI International, Menlo Park, California HARRY A. LIPSITT, Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio ALAN G. MILLER, Boeing Commercial Airplane Group, Seattle, Washington RICHARD S. MULLER, University of California, Berkeley ROBERT C. PFAHL, JR., Motorola, Schaumburg, Illinois ELSA REICHMANIS, Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, New Jersey KENNETH L. REIFSNIDER, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg JAMES WAGNER, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio BILL G.W. YEE, Pratt and Whitney, West Palm Beach, Florida RICHARD CHAIT, Director

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE BOARD ON MANUFACTURING AND ENGINEERING DESIGN F. STAN SETTLES (chair), University of Southern California, Los Angeles ERNEST R. BLOOD, Caterpillar, Inc., Mossville, Illinois JOHN BOLLINGER, University of Wisconsin, Madison JOHN CHIPMAN, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis DOROTHY COMASSAR, GE Aircraft Engines, Cincinnati, Ohio ROBERT A. DAVIS, The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington GARY L. DENMAN, GRC International, Inc., Vienna, Virginia ROBERT EAGAN, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico MARGARET A. EASTWOOD, Motorola, Inc., Schaumburg, Illinois WILLIAM C. HANSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JAMIE C. HSU, General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan CAROLYN W. MEYERS, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro FREDERICK J. MICHEL, consultant, Alexandria, Virginia PAUL S. PEERCY, SEMI/SEMATECH, Austin, Texas FRIEDRICH B. PRINZ, Stanford University, Stanford, California DANIEL P. SIEWIOREK, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania GORDON A. SMITH, Vanguard Research, Inc., Fairfax, Virginia JOSEPH WIRTH, Raychem Corp. (retired), Los Altos, California RICHARD CHAIT, Director

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE Acknowledgments The Panel on Manufacturing Process Controls would like to thank the participants in the workshops, which were the principal data-gathering sessions for this study. The information and insight from these sessions were invaluable to the committee. Presenters at the first workshop on Industries of the Future (IOF) included C. Philip Ross of Creative Opportunities, Inc.; Mel Koch of the University of Washington's Center for Process Analytical Chemistry; William Walkington of Walkington Engineering, Inc.; Robert Bareiss of Bareiss Associates; John A.S. Green of The Aluminum Association; and Barry Brusey and Mike Dudzic of Dofasco Steel. Presenters at the second workshop on technology opportunities included Tariq Samad of Honeywell; Yoh-Han Pao of AIWARE, Inc.; Frederick Proctor of the National Institute for Standards and Technology; Rush Robinett of Sandia National Laboratories; David Holcomb of Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Arlene Garrison of the University of Tennessee 's Measurement and Engineering Control Center; Michael Carrabba of EIC Laboratories; and Mel Koch of the University of Washington's Center for Process Analytical Chemistry. The panel is particularly grateful to Timothy McIntyre of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Industrial Technology for his assistance in identifying representatives of IOF industries to participate in the first workshop and for his participation in both workshops. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: James J. Solberg, Purdue University; John A.S. Green, The Aluminum Association; Arlene A. Garrison, University of Tennessee; Daniel J. Maas and Tony Haynes, National Center for Manufacturing Sciences; Karen Markus, MCNC; and James Wagner, Case Western Reserve University. While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of the report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC. Finally, the panel gratefully acknowledges the support of the staff of the National Materials Advisory Board and the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design, including Thomas E. Munns, study director, Aida C. Neel, senior project assistant, and Bonnie Scarborough, research associate.

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE Preface In 1993, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Industrial Technology (OIT) established a group of seven industries designated as Industries of the Future (IOF). These industries were selected for their high energy use and large waste generation. The original IOF included the aluminum, chemicals, forest products, glass, metal castings, petroleum refining, and steel industries. Each industry was asked to provide a future vision and a road map detailing the research required to realize its vision. In November 1994, the forest products industry was the first of the IOF industries to enter into an agreement with DOE. At this writing, six of the IOF industries have prepared vision statements and signed agreements with DOE. OIT asked the National Research Council's National Materials Advisory Board (NMAB) to evaluate their program strategy and to provide guidance for OIT's transition to the new IOF strategy. A Committee on Industrial Technology Assessments (CITA) was formed for this purpose with the specific tasks of reviewing and evaluating the overall OIT program, reviewing selected OIT-sponsored research projects, and identifying cross-cutting technologies (i.e., technologies applicable to more than one industry). CITA was asked to focus on three specific areas: intermetallic alloys, manufacturing process controls, and separations. A separate panel was formed to study each area and publish the results in a separate report. This report describes the activities and recommendations of the Panel on Manufacturing Process Controls (MPC). The MPC panel's objectives are listed below: identify key processes that would benefit most from improved manufacturing process controls for each of the IOF

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE identify control technology needs that are common among the IOF industries identify research opportunities to address these needs suggest criteria for identifying and prioritizing research and development to develop improved manufacturing controls technology suggest means for transferring advances in control technology to the IOF industry sectors The MPC panel was composed of experts knowledgeable in sensors, measurement technology, and/or process control. The panel held two meetings. At the first meeting, on October 22, 1996, representatives of six of the IOF industries discussed the needs of their industries for sensing and process controls. As a result of this meeting, the panel was able to identify common needs among the IOF industries. On May 29, 1997, the MPC panel met with experts on cutting-edge sensing and control technologies to identify opportunities for the development of technologies to meet the IOF industries' needs. The conclusions and recommendations of the MPC panel can be found in Chapter 4 of this report. In general, the panel found ample opportunities for research on cross-cutting technologies, in both sensing and manufacturing control, that apply to several IOF industries. The chair wishes to thank the MPC panel members for their enthusiasm and dedication, as well as the experts from the IOF industries and experts on process control and sensors for their excellent presentations. The chair thanks all of the participants for their insights and stimulating discussions and the staff of the NMAB for their coordination and assistance throughout the entire process, including the publication of this report. Comments and suggestions can be sent via electronic mail to nmab@nas.edu or by FAX to NMAB (202) 334-3718. GARY A. BAUM, chair Panel on Manufacturing Process Controls

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1  1   INTRODUCTION   6      Committee on Industrial Technology Assessments,   7      Panel on Manufacturing Process Controls,   8      Challenges,   9      References,   13  2   SYNTHESIS OF INDUSTRIAL NEEDS   14      Summary of Industry Needs,   14      Common Needs and Attributes,   23      References,   26  3   RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES   28      Process Sensors,   28      Process Controls,   35      References,   42  4   RECOMMENDATIONS   45      Technical Challenges,   46      Strategy for a Process Controls Initiative,   46     APPENDICES       A WORKSHOP AGENDAS   53     B BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL MEMBERS   56

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE This page in the original is blank.

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE Tables, Figures, and Boxes TABLE  1-1   Status of IOF Vision Documents,   8 FIGURES  1-1   Manufacturing energy use (1994),   7  1-2   Research issues, engineering focus, and attributes of process sensors and controls,   9  1-3   Research needs and technical challenges for intelligent sensors and control systems,   11  2-1   Three-level classification scheme for process control technologies,   25  3-1   Continuous annealing process roller sequence,   39  3-2   Decision support hierarchy for plant-wide optimization,   40  3-3   Monitoring system for finishing mill electric motors,   43 BOXES  3-1   A Neural-Network Controller for Adaptive Annealing of Rolling Sheet,   38  3-2   Optimization of Electric Motors for Finishing Mill Operations,   42

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MANUFACTURING PROCESS CONTROLS FOR THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE