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Future Directions for the National Science Foundation's Arctic Natural Sciences Pro Polar Research Board ram Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for writing this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under Contract OPP- 9707783. Limited copies of this report are available from: Polar Research Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 202-334-3479 or National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Lockbox 285 Washington, DC 20055 202-334-3313 800-624-6242 http://www.nap.edu/bookstore Cover: Researchers investigating the origin of Cretaceous flood basalt volcanism in the Arctic (Axel Heiberg Island) under a grant provided by the Arctic Natural Sciences Program. Flood basalts are exposed on islands throughout the High Arctic and may comprise major bathymetric features of the Arctic Ocean such as Alpha Ridge. Photo provided by principal investigator Dr. John A. Tarduno, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, New York. Other images can be viewed at http://www.earth.rochester.edu/pmag/arctic. Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE PRIORITIES FOR NSF'S ARCTIC NATURAL SCIENCES PROGRAM JOHN T. ANDREWS, Chair, University of Colorado, Boulder SUSAN K. AVERY, University of Colorado, Boulder MARIANNE S.V. DOUGLAS, University of Toronto, Ontario BERNARD MALLET, University of Washington, Seattle PAUL A. MAYEWSKI, University of New Hampshire, Durham JAMES H. MORISON, University of Washington, Seattle KIM M. PETERSON, University of Alaska, Anchorage DONALD B. SINIFF, University of Minnesota, St. Paul ROGER W. SMITH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Stay CHRIS ELFRING, Director JUDY ESTEP, Administrative Assistant ROB GREENWAY, Project Assistant . . .

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POLAR RESEARCH BOARD DAVID L. CLARK, Chair, University of Wisconsin, Madison RICHARD B. ALLEY, Pennsylvania State University, University Park JOHN B. ANDERSON, Rice University, Houston, Texas ANTHONY J. GOW, U.S. Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, New Hampshire BERNARD MALLET, University of Washington, Seattle DAVID J. HOFMANN, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado DONAL T. MANAHAN, University of Southern California, Los Angeles JAMES H. MORISON, University of Washington, Seattle WALTER C. OECHEL, San Diego State University, California CAROLE L. SEYFRIT, Old Dominion University, Richlands, Virginia GLENN E. SHAW, University of Alaska, Fairbanks THOMAS N. TAYLOR, University of Kansas, Lawrence ROBERT M. WALKER, Washington University, St. Louis ROBERT A. WHARTON, JR., Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada Stay CHRIS ELFRING, Director JUDY ESTEP, Administrative Assistant ROB GREENWAY, Project Assistant V

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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chair, University of Virginia, Charlottesvill PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario WILLIAM L. FISHER, University of Texas, Austin JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts PERRY L. McCARTY, Stanford University, California JUDITH E. McDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. S. GEORGE PHILANDER, Princeton University, New Jersey RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University of Kingston, Ontario THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ELLEN SILBERGELD, University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park Stay ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst v e

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of out- standing engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineer- ing communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chair- man and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. vim

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Preface The National Science Foundation (NSF) has a distinguished record of sup- porting research in the polar regions. When the Office of Polar Programs (OPP) was reorganized in 1995, two distinct sections were created the Antarctic Sci- ences Section to support research in the Antarctic and the Arctic Sciences Section to focus on science in the Arctic. Within the purview of the Arctic Sciences Section, three programs were established Arctic System Science, Arctic Social Sciences, and Arctic Natural Sciences (ANS). The ANS program, the focus of this study, is a multidisciplinary effort intended to support work in the space sciences, atmospheric sciences, biology, geology, glaciology, oceanography, and other natural science disciplines. The scope of the ANS program presented special management challenges, and as a result OPP asked the National Research Council (NRC) for advice to guide the program's future evolution. This report was prepared by a committee carefully constituted to address this task. The report reviews the ANS program its goals, structure, management strategy, and operation to date. It then consid- ers the defining characteristics of proposals that are suitable for ANS funding and how the program might be best structured to support the broad multidisciplinary nature of its mission. It also contains comments on two other elements of the program's responsibility: the importance of international links and the vital issue of providing logistics support for research in the Arctic. The report concludes with a series of recommendations based on the deliberations of the Committee on Science Priorities for NSF's Arctic Natural Sciences Program and input from the research community. On behalf of the committee, I would like to thank the staff at the National . . vat

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vit! PREFACE Science Foundation for their willingness to respond to our questions and requests for data, especially the staff of the ANS program. We also would like to com- mend Dr. Odile de la Beaujardiere for her hard work as the program's first manager. Finally, I would also like to thank the committee's members for giving their time and energy to this activity. John Andrews Chair

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Acknowledgments Although many people had a role in the preparation of this report and de- serve thanks, special appreciation goes to the reviewers. These individuals were chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. This indepen- dent review provided candid and critical comments that assisted the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and ensured that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Brian Barnes, University of Alaska at Fairbanks David Chapman, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution David Clark, University of Wisconsin, Madison Arthur Lachenbruch, U.S. Geological Survey Debra Meese, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Richard A. Meserve, Covington & Burling, Washington, DC Ed Myers, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Walter Oechel, San Diego State University Glenn Shaw, University of Alaska at Fairbanks While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC. Six

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Contents SUMMARY Program Scope and Structure, 2 Management Strategy and Research Priorities, 3 International and Agency Cooperation, 4 Logistics, 4 Program Data Availability, 5 Conclusion, 5 INTRODUCTION The Committee's Charge, 7 Study Methods, 7 ANS Program History, 8 BUDGET AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AND STRUCTURE Evaluation of Current Structure and Scope, 23 Evaluation by 1997 Committee of Visitors, 25 Does the Current ANS Structure Make Sense? 27 x~ 6 13 21

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xt! 4 MISSION AND GUIDING PRINCIPLES Guidelines for Selecting Proposals, 30 Improving Program Management, 33 Setting Research Priorities, 36 Logistics Support, 37 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Program Scope and Structure, 41 Management Strategy, 42 Setting Research Priorities, 44 Agency and International Cooperation, 46 Logistics Support, 48 Program Data Availability, 49 REFERENCES APPENDICES A Arctic Research Program Opportunities B Biographical Sketches of Committee Members C List of Acronyms CONTENTS 29 40 51 53 66 68