Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Idaho, 1970-1996, by Birth Cohort and Overall

A combination of direct and indirect age adjustment was used to compare the incidence rates of thyroid cancer among geographic areas and by birth cohort. The following provides an overview of the steps taken in the analysis.

Step 1. The number of invasive cases of thyroid cancer diagnosed among residents of the state of Idaho, 1970-1996, were summed by sex, 5-year age group, county of residence, and year of diagnosis. The age groups were: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, …, 85+. Cases with missing information on sex, age at diagnosis, or county were not included in the analysis. If birth year was unknown, it was imputed from diagnosis date and estimated age at diagnosis. Birth cohort was defined by birth year: before 1948, 1948-1958, and after 1958. Given the years that atmospheric nuclear bomb tests were conducted at the Nevada Test Site, and the fact that children aged 0-5 are biologically most sensitive to iodine-131, persons born during the time period 1948-1958 are thought to have been at the risk of highest exposure. The other birth cohorts were chosen for comparison purposes.

Step 2. Population data were obtained from the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Data for 1970-1989 were available by sex and 5-year age-group. Data for 1990-1996 were available by sex and single-year age group. Single-year age group estimates were derived from 1970-1989 data by dividing the population in each 5-year age group into 5 equal parts. For example, if 1,000 persons were in the 5-year age group 15-19, 200 persons each were assigned to ages 15, 16, 17, 18, and 19. Separating the population data into single-year age groups was necessary to calculate age-adjusted rates by birth cohort.

Step 3. Three birth cohorts were defined, again based upon differences due to age in estimated exposure to iodine-131 from atmospheric nuclear bomb tests at the Nevada Test Site: before 1948, 1948-1958, and after 1958. Population data were estimated for each of the birth cohorts, by county, sex, and 5-year age group. Two age breaks were defined and incremented by year of study. The lower age break was defined as: AGELOW = YEAR - 1958, and year was varied from 1970-1996, the years for which CDRI has reliable statewide case information. The upper age break was defined as: AGEHIGH = YEAR - 1948, and year was again varied from 1970-1996. AGELOW and AGEHIGH give the (truncated) ages a person would have been in each year, 1970-1996, given that they were born in the period 1948-1958. Thus, a person born from 1948-1958 would have been assigned ages 12-22 in 1970, and between 32 and 42 in 1990, etc. Population data were assigned to birth cohorts depending on single-year age group and year (1970-1996). For example, for the year 1970, persons aged 10 were assigned to the after-1958 birth cohort; persons aged 20 were assigned to the 1948-1958 birth cohort; and persons aged 30 were assigned to the before-1948 birth

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