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## Exposure of the American People to Iodine-131 from Nevada Nuclear-Bomb Tests: Review of the National Cancer Institute Report and Public Health Implications (1999) Commission on Life Sciences (CLS)

### Citation Manager

. "3 Health Risks of I-131 Exposure." Exposure of the American People to Iodine-131 from Nevada Nuclear-Bomb Tests: Review of the National Cancer Institute Report and Public Health Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1999.

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Exposure of the American People to Iodine-131 from Nevada Nuclear-Bomb Tests: Review of the National Cancer Institute Report and Public Health Implications
1. Subtract 0.25 (males) or 0.65 (females) (the Lifetime Risk for the adult group) from the value found in step 1.

2. Calculate the ratio of the one's dose estimate to the average dose for the age cohort.

3. Multiply this ratio by the value from step 2 above.

4. Add the adult value for Percentage Lifetime Risk (0.25 for males or 0.65 for females) to the number from step 4 above.

Two final points are worthy of note in this discussion of risk estimates. First, for those who are diagnosed with radiation related thyroid cancer, the prognosis, as previously discussed, is good. Second, the individuals that are diagnosed with thyroid cancer can have a relatively high probability that the disease was caused by radiation exposure even if the likelihood that they would get the disease was low. For example, the probability that a cancer is a result of radiation exposure (this probability is termed "probability of causation" or PC) (NIH 1985) can be calculated as [Relative Risk - 1]/[Relative Risk].6 Thus, for the child having received an actual dose of 10.3 rad (see Table 3.4), the PC would equal (1.67 - 1)/1.67 = 0.40. This corresponds to a 40 percent chance the cancer was a result of radiation exposure. This can be compared with a chance of only 0.42 percent (male) or 1.07 percent (female) that they would have developed the disease during their lives following a 10.3 rad exposure at 1 year of age. The PC becomes increasingly higher for larger radiation doses.

 5 The primary exception would be individuals who routinely drank goats' milk. NCI estimated the number of such individuals in the United States who were in childhood at time of exposure to have been about 20,000. These persons could have received doses greater than 100 rad at many locations. 6 There are alternate ways to write this equation, all are equivalent: PC = (RR - 1)/RR = ERR/RR = ERR/(1 + ERR).
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 Front Matter (R1-R16) Executive Summary (1-9) 1 Introduction (10-16) 2 Review of the NCI Radiation Dose Reconstruction (17-44) 3 Health Risks of I-131 Exposure (45-85) 4 Implications for Clinical Practice and Public Health Policy (86-124) 5 Communicating with the Public about Exposure to I-131 (125-151) 6 Research Needs (152-156) References (157-172) Glossary (173-176) Appendix A. Study Activities (177-185) Appendix B. Copy of the Memorandum from Dr. Charles Land to Dr. Richard Klausner (186-193) Appendix C. Calculation of Collective Thyroid Dose to the U.S. Population from the Release of I-131 from the Nuclear Weapons Tests in Nevada (194-197) Appendix D. Thyroid Cancer in Idaho, 1970-1996 (198-213) Appendix E. Applicable Radiation Exposure Standards and Guides: Past and Present (214-220) Appendix F. Screening for Thyroid Cancer: Background Paper (221-263) Committee Biographies (264-272)