Closing Gap Between Current and Achievable by 20% (5)

Closing Gap Between Current and Achievable by 30% (6)

Closing Gap Between Current and Achievable by 40% (7)

Closing Gap Between Current and Achievable by 50% (8)

Closing Gap Between Current and Achievable by 78% (9)

88.00

89.50

91.00

92.50

96.70

80.00

82.50

85.00

87.50

94.50

84.00

86.00

88.00

90.00

95.60

92.00

93.00

94.00

95.00

97.80

92.00

93.00

94.00

95.00

97.80

50.05

54.92

60.14

65.74

83.56

49.95

45.08

39.86

34.26

16.44

1,049.26

981.10

907.97

829.62

580.17

10.45

16.26

22.51

29.19

50.48

199.79

180.31

159.42

137.03

65.76

when offered, and accepted and complied with ZDV treatment, there would be a 19% reduction in the number of HIV-infected babies (i.e., from 1,172 to 947) (column 9). If both providers and HIV-infected women had optimal rates (i.e., if all but prenatal care is set to 100%), there would be a 52% decline in the number of HIV-infected babies (i.e., from 1,172 to 560) (Table K.3, column 3).

This simplified model illustrates the need for multifaceted approaches to significantly reduce perinatal HIV transmission. But even with a multifaceted approach, significant further reductions in the number of HIV-infected babies will be difficult to achieve. Table K.3 shows the effects of closing the gap between current and optimal rates by 10% to 50% (columns 4 through 8). Even if the gap was reduced by 50% (e.g., prenatal care increases from 85% to 92.5%),



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