there would be only a 29% decline in the number of HIV-infected babies (i.e., from 1,172 to 830). Here it is assumed that 92.5% of HIV-infected pregnant women obtained early prenatal care, 87.5% of women were offered HIV testing, 90% of women accepted testing, 95% of HIV-positive women were offered ZDV, and 95% of women accepted and complied with ZDV therapy. To achieve a further 50% decline in the number of HIV-infected babies (i.e., from 1,172 to 580 infected babies) and be within reach of the currently achievable state (i.e., 350 infected babies), the gap between observed and achievable rates would have to close by 78%, and rates for factors related to transmission would have to be very high (e.g., 96.7% of women with prenatal care) (column 9).
Birkhead GS. New York State AIDS Institute. Personal communication. 1998.
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