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--> Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998
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--> NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study by the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design was conducted under Grant No. DMI-9626585 from the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the National Science Foundation. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Visionary manufacturing challenges for 2020 / Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges, Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, National Research Council. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-06182-2 1. Research, Industrial—United States—Planning. 2. Production management—Technological innovations—United States. 3. Concurrent engineering—United States.  I. National Research Council (U.S.). Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design. Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges. T176.V57 1998 658.5´7—dc21 98-40274 Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.
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--> Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges JOHN G. BOLLINGER (chair), University of Wisconsin, Madison DENNIS K. BENSON, Appropriate Solutions, Inc., Worthington, Ohio NATHAN CLOUD, Cirrus Engineering, Wilmington, Delaware GORDON FORWARD, TXI, Dallas, Texas BARBARA M. FOSSUM, University of Texas, Austin DONALD N. FREY, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois DAVID F. HAGEN, Michigan Center for High Technology, Dearborn Heights JAMES JORDAN, NGM Knowledge Systems, Cupertino, California ANN MAJCHRZAK, University of Southern California, Los Angeles EUGENE S. MEIERAN, Intel Corporation, Chandler, Arizona DAVID MISKA, United Technologies Corporation, Hartford, Connecticut LAWRENCE J. RHOADES, Extrude Hone Corporation, Irwin, Pennsylvania EUGENE WONG, University of California, Berkeley Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design Staff ROBERT RUSNAK, senior program officer THOMAS E. MUNNS, associate director AIDA C. NEEL, senior project assistant BONNIE SCARBOROUGH, research associate ROBERT E. SCHAFRIK, director (until November 1997) RICHARD CHAIT, director (after February 1998) Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design Liaison WILLIAM C. HANSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Government Liaison GEORGE HAZELRIGG, National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia BRUCE M. KRAMER, National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia
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--> Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design F. STAN SETTLES (chair), University of Southern California, Los Angeles ERNEST R. BLOOD, Caterpillar, Inc., Mossville, Illinois JOHN BOLLINGER, University of Wisconsin, Madison JOHN CHIPMAN, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis DOROTHY COMASSAR, GE Aircraft Engines, Cincinnati, Ohio ROBERT A. DAVIS, The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington GARY L. DENMAN, GRC International, Inc., Vienna, Virginia ROBERT EAGAN, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico MARGARET A. EASTWOOD, Motorola, Inc., Schaumburg, Illinois WILLIAM C. HANSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JAMIE C. HSU, General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan CAROLYN W. MEYERS, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro FREDERICK J. MICHEL, consultant, Alexandria, Virginia PAUL S. PEERCY, SEMI/SEMATECH, Austin, Texas FRIEDRICH B. PRINZ, Stanford University, Stanford, California DANIEL P. SIEWIOREK, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania GORDON A. SMITH, Vanguard Research, Inc., Fairfax, Virginia JOSEPH WIRTH, RayChem Corp. (retired), Los Altos, California
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--> The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an advisor to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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--> Acknowledgments The Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges would like to thank the participants in the Workshop on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges and those who responded to the Delphi Survey, which were the principal data-gathering mechanisms for this study. The information and insight from these sources were invaluable to the committee. Presenters at the workshop on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges included Philip Burgess of the Center for the New West; Edward Leamer of the University of California at Los Angeles; Paul Sheng of the University of California at Berkeley; Wilfried Sihn of Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing, Engineering and Automation; H.T. Goranson of Sirius Beta; Rick Dove of Paradigm Shift International; Brian Turner of Work and Technology Institute; Steven J. Bomba of Johnson Controls; Debra M. Amidon of Entovation International; Richard Altman of Communication Design; Mauro Walker of Motorola; and Richard Morley of Morley and Associates. The committee would like to thank these individuals for the time and thought that went into the workshop presentations. In addition, the committee appreciates the presentations and discussions provided by Bruce Gaber of the Naval Research Laboratory and Edward Lightfoot of the University of Wisconsin. The committee would like to acknowledge the efforts of Bonnie Scarborough, National Research Council research associate, in conducting the Delphi survey and Brian Borys, consultant, in analyzing the first round survey results. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the
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--> NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Robert P. Clagett, University of Rhode Island; Richard Kegg, Cincinnati Milicron; Michael McEvoy, Baxter International; Robert Pfahl, Motorola; A. Alan B. Pritsker, Pritsker Corporation; H. Donald Ratliff, Georgia Institute of Technology; Joseph P. Wirth, consultant; and Joel Yudken, AFL-CIO. While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of the report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC. Finally, the panel gratefully acknowledges the support of the staff of the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design, including Robert Rusnak, study director (until March 1998), Thomas E. Munns, study director (after March 1998), and Aida C. Neel, senior project assistant.
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--> Preface Emerging economies, social and political transitions, and new ways of doing business are changing the world dramatically. These trends suggest that the competitive environment for manufacturing enterprises in 2020 will be significantly different than it is today. To be successful in this competitive climate, manufacturing enterprises of 2020 will require significantly improved capabilities. The attainment of these capabilities represents the challenge facing manufacturing. The recent pace of technological advances could lead to complacency and the belief that technology will be available "on demand." Today's advances, however, were the result of exploratory enabling research performed years ago. If manufacturing is to have the technical capabilities it needs in 2020, the research that will provide the scientific basis for these capabilities must be initiated now. This report identifies areas for investments in research and development that will meet the needs of future manufacturers. Although the focus of this report is on technology, new technologies and new business practices will be inseparable. The objectives of this study were (1) to create a vision of the competitive environment for manufacturing and the nature of the manufacturing enterprise in 2020, (2) to determine the major challenges for future manufacturing, and (3) to identify the key technologies for meeting these challenges. To perform this study, the National Research Council, through the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design, convened a committee of 13 individuals with expertise in manufacturing operations, management, and practices; manufacturing technology; education and training; social, behavioral, and political science; and technology forecasting. The committee included representatives from small, medium, and large companies in a variety of industries. The results of the committee's deliberations on a wide range of material are presented in this report.
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--> The committee solicited information from a variety of manufacturing experts as a basis for its deliberations. The key to the success of this approach was selecting participants who are visionary leaders who could look beyond today, including national and international leaders in manufacturing and representatives of progressive manufacturing organizations. The opinions of the selected experts were communicated to the committee in two ways: (1) a workshop that provided a forum for manufacturing experts and experts in fields likely to affect manufacturing in the future (e.g., economics, geopolitics, workforce, and education) and (2) an international Delphi survey that elicited creative ideas and helped the committee prioritize future industry needs. Recent forward-looking manufacturing studies—including the Next Generation Manufacturing Project report, industry-specific technology road maps, surveys, and futuristic views of manufacturing—were also reviewed. This study has several unique features. First, the committee's findings are derived from the international Delphi survey, the workshop, and the committee's deliberations with the assistance of experts in specific areas. Second, the committee identified the fundamental challenges that must be overcome for the realization of the collective vision generated by the participants. Third, the study focuses on a broad, international view of manufacturing in 2020 rather than on a particular industrial sector. In the context of this study, "manufacturing" is defined broadly to mean the processes and entities that create and support products for customers. Manufacturing encompasses the development, design, production, delivery, and support of products. In the course of this study, it became increasingly clear that the definition of manufacturing will become even broader in the future as new configurations for the manufacturing enterprise emerge and the distinctions between manufacturing and service industries become blurred. The committee understands that it would be foolhardy to think that the future can be precisely defined. Nevertheless, the needs identified in this report, which have been validated by visionary leaders of today, will be broadly applicable to all future manufacturing. Comments on this report can be sent by electronic mail to firstname.lastname@example.org or by FAX to BMAED (202) 334-3718. JOHN G. BOLLINGER, CHAIR COMMITTEE ON VISIONARY MANUFACTURING CHALLENGES
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--> Contents Executive Summary 1 1 The 2020 Vision 8 Methodology 8 The Context for Manufacturing in 2020 9 Manufacturing in 2020 10 Summary 12 2 Grand Challenges for Manufacturing 13 Grand Challenge 1:Concurrent Manufacturing 13 Grand Challenge 2:Integration of Human and Technical Resources 17 Grand Challenge 3:Conversion of Information to Knowledge 24 Grand Challenge 4:Environmental Compatibility 27 Grand Challenge 5:Reconfigurable Enterprises 30 Grand Challenge 6:Innovative Processes 33 3 Priority Technologies and Supporting Research 37 Reconfigurable Manufacturing Systems 38 Waste-Free Processing 40 New Materials Processes 41 Biotechnology for Manufacturing 42 Enterprise Modeling and Simulation 43 Information Technology 44 Product and Process Design Methods 45 Enhanced Machine-Human Interfaces 45
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--> Workforce Education and Training 46 Software for Intelligent Collaboration Systems 47 Meeting the Grand Challenges through Technology 47 4 Preparing for 2020 57 Crosscutting Research 58 Breakthrough Research 58 Taking Advantage of ''Driver" Technologies 60 Building on Next-Generation Manufacturing 61 Interdisciplinary Research 63 Measuring Progress 64 References 66 Appendices A SUMMARY OF WORKSHOP ON VISIONARY MANUFACTURING CHALLENGES 69 B DELPHI SURVEY: METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS 123 C DELPHI SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRES 134 D BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS 146 Index 151
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--> Tables, Figures, and Boxes Tables 3-1 Applicability of Evaluation Criteria to Priority Technology Areas 48 3-2 Applicability of Priority Technology Areas to the Grand Challenges 49 3-3 Enabling Capabilities for Concurrent Manufacturing (Grand Challenge 1) 50 3-4 Enabling Capabilities for Integrated Human and Technical Resources (Grand Challenge 2) 51 3-5 Enabling Capabilities for Converting Information to Knowledge (Grand Challenge 3) 52 3-6 Enabling Capabilities for Environmental Compatibility (Grand Challenge 4) 53 3-7 Enabling Capabilities for Reconfigurable Enterprises (Grand Challenge 5) 54 3-8 Enabling Capabilities for Innovative Processes (Grand Challenge 6) 56 A-1 Three Principal Organizational Approaches to Technology and the Environment 82 A-2 Necessary Changes in Company Values 84 B-1 Number of Potential Survey Participants Identified and Contacted and Number Who Responded to Questionnaires 1 and 2 126 B-2 Distribution of Respondents to Questionnaire 1 by Country and Work Affiliation 127 B-3 Manufacturing Challenges Prioritized by International Experts in Manufacturing 129
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--> B-4 Enabling Technologies Prioritized by International Experts in Manufacturing 130 B-5 Enabling Technologies for Meeting Manufacturing Challenges (Number of Respondents) 132 Figures A-1 Measures of inequality in U.S. incomes 77 A-2 Employment in the textiles, apparel, footwear, and leather industries, 1970 to 1993 78 A-3 The effect of distance from the center of GDP on West German total trade and apparel trade 78 A-4 Geographical clustering of high-income countries 79 A-5 Employment in machinery and equipment, 1970 to 1993 80 A-6 Conceptualization of how lasting competitive advantages are attained through values and culture 85 A-7 Schematic illustration of how manufacturing organizations in 2020 will vary in virtuality and loyalty 92 A-8 The technology diffusion cycle 104 A-9 The business organization of future enterprises 105 A-10 Characteristics of business generations 107 Box A-1 Workshop Participants 71
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