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Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW...........
The public policy context 1
What has happened to carpoolina?.
The decline in transit shares
Implications of these trends
Or~i^^t mini - stile - c,
................. 10
Literature review 12
The structure of this report 15
2. DATABASE DEVELOPMENT ~ 18
Introduction 18
Cross sectional database 18
Data and data sources for dependent variables 19
........... 23
Time series databases 23
Data sources for dependent variables ...................................................................................
Explanatory variables.............................................................................................................
Data for explanatory variables ...........
26
28
Limitations of the data 29
Geographic definition issues
Other mode share calculation issues
Lack of adequate time series data
Simultaneitv considerntinns
~1 Imm:'r~l
...... 32
........ 32
3. PROJ ECT FINDINGS ~
Overview ~ 35
Cross-sectional regression models ~ 35
Static models for 1990 37
1980-1990 trend models ...............................................................................................
Time series regression models for New York City.
............. 44
4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 52
Summary of results ear 52
Conclusions 52
1. Public policies alone are not the culprit 53
2. But public policies do appear to matter 53
3. And the outlook for the future is not all bad 55
Recommendations for further research . ~.~.~. ~. 57
OCR for page R4
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work was sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration and was conducted in the Transit
Cooperative Research Program (TCRP), which is administered by the Transportation Research
Board of the National Research Council.
The research reported herein was performed under TCRP Project H-13B by Charles River
Associates Incorporated. Charles River Associates is the contractor for this study.
Michael A. Kemp of Charles River Associates is the Principal Investigator for this study. The
authors of this report are Mark Kiefer and Michael Kemp of Charles River Associates.