Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities
Climate Research Committee
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998
Page ii
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. 50-DKNA-7-90052. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-06375-2
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Box 285
Washington, D.C. 20055
800-624-6242
202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area)
Cover: The cover design represents the environmental, human, and computational elements that underlie climate modeling. The equations in the design are a form of the so-called “primitive equations,” which are included in all dynamical climate models. The photograph is by Peggy June Ostrom Schultz, an artist in Newark, Delaware.
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Page iii
Climate Research Committee
Members
THOMAS R. KARL (Chair), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina
ROBERT E. DICKINSON (Vice Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson
MAURICE BLACKMON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
BERT BOLIN, Osterskar, Sweden
JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara
JAMES GIRAYTYS, Consultant, Winchester, Virginia
JAMES E. HANSEN, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, N.Y.
PHILIP E. MERILEES, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, CIESIN, Columbia University, New York
S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL, University of New Hampshire, Durham
STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula
EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle
WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
KARL E. TAYLOR, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
ANNE M. THOMPSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Ex Officio Members
W. LAWRENCE GATES, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of Arizona, Tucson
PETER J. WEBSTER, University of Colorado, Boulder
NRC Staff
PETER SCHULTZ, Study Director
LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer (ending September 31, 1998)
TENECIA BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
Page iv
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Members
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-chair), International Technology Corporation, Washington, D.C.
SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook
DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. LENNON, Sonalysts, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
MARK R. SCHOEBERL, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
NRC Staff
ELBERT W. (Joe) FRIDAY, Jr., Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer (ending December 31, 1998)
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Program Officer
PETER SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate
TENECIA BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
CARTER FORD, Project Assistant
Page v
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
Members
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle
B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, California
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia
RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens
THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
NRC Staff
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
Page vi
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
Page vii
Preface
This report responds to an oral request by two U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) agency program managers, Michael Hall of NOAA and Jay Fein of NSF, made at the Climate Research Committee (CRC) meeting held on October 15-17, 1997, and as part of an understanding with Mike MacCracken of the USGCRP Program Office. In June 1996, the CRC and the USGCRP co-hosted a forum on the status and infrastructure needs of climate modeling in the United States. Prior to the forum, public discussion on the organization of the U.S. climate modeling community and the adequacy of resources available to it had been spurred by four prominent climate research scientists in an open letter (October 1995) to USGCRP principals and widely circulated to the climate research community (See Appendix A). In this letter they asserted that the “American [climate modeling] effort is falling seriously behind that of Europe and, perhaps, Japan,” and expressed concern that the United States was in danger of being “relegated to permanent second-class status in this critical area of Earth science research.” They went on to outline three strategic options for regaining the lead in global climate modeling. The issues raised in this letter remain largely unresolved and, subsequently, other related issues have also been raised. In particular, some have questioned the adequacy of the present organization of the U.S. climate modeling community to respond to the
Page viii
challenge of participation in the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as the sufficiency of computer facilities available within the United States to serve this purpose.
This report is intended to inform USGCRP agencies on issues related to the capability of U.S. climate modeling efforts to support national and international climate assessments, and the sufficiency of computational resources available for this purpose. In this report, the committee will address three specific questions:
1. Do USGCRP agencies have a coordinated approach for prioritizing from a national perspective their climate modeling research and assessment efforts?
2. Are resources allocated effectively to address such priorities?
3. How can the U.S. climate modeling community make more efficient use of its available resources?
The Climate Research Committee hopes that federal agencies and the USGCRP will find this report useful as they work to enhance the contribution that the U.S. climate research community can make to national and international assessments of climate change.
THOMAS KARL, CHAIR
Page ix
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson
JERRY MAHLMAN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
LINDA MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ROGER PIELKE, Jr., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Page x
CHESTER F. ROPELEWSKI, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York
MICHAEL SCHLESINGER, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
JOHN M. WALLACE, University of Washington, Seattle
WARREN WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
TOM WIGLEY, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
Page xi
Contents
Executive Summary |
|
Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling |
|
Background |
|
Policy Context |
|
Current Small and Intermediate Modeling Capabilities |
|
Current High-End Modeling Capabilities and Needs |
|
Access to Foreign Model Output |
|
Priority Setting |
|
Coordination |
|
Allocating Resources |
|
Recent Developments Relevant to this Report: Computational Capabilities and Coordination |
|
Conclusions |
|
References |
Page xii
Appendix A-Letter from Barnett, Randall, Semtner, and Somerville |
|
Appendix B-Statement of Task |
|
Appendix C-CRC Climate Modeling Workshop Invitation and Agenda |
|
Appendix D-Examples of Access Restrictions on Foreign Atmospheric Data |
|
Appendix E-Correspondence from Bill Buzbee |
|
• Letter to Tom Karl |
|
• NCAR Measurements of Single Processor Performance |
|
• A Sampling of Computing Systems in Major Atmospheric Modeling Centers Around the World |
|
• Comments from UCAR to the International Trade Commission Hearing |