Index

A

Africa, 16, 42, 43, 44, 48, 114

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 9, 40

Agency for International

Development, 70

Agricultural sector, ix, 11-12, 13, 14, 19, 26

climate parameters, general, 40, 90

coping strategies, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99

effects of climate variability, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 32, 68-70

encroachment on forests, 47

global warming, beliefs of farmers, 72-73

“green revolution” as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83, 119

information dissemination to, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 80-83 (passim), 90, 109

insurance, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138

market mechanisms, 42, 44, 49, 57, 58

usefulness of forecasts, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 81, 113-115, 117

see also Drought;

Food supply;

Rural areas

Argentina, 8, 52

Asia

El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8

monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90

see also specific countries

Atlantic Ocean, 16

North Atlantic Oscillation, 34

Atmosphere-ocean interactions, see Ocean-atmosphere interactions

Atmospheric pressure, 22, 24, 25, 30

Attitudes see Beliefs;

Cultural factors

Australia, 8-9, 26, 33, 47

B

Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117

Beliefs, 3, 13, 16, 71-73, 118, 124, 134

fishery management, 46



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Index A Africa, 16, 42, 43, 44, 48, 114 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 9, 40 Agency for International Development, 70 Agricultural sector, ix, 11-12, 13, 14, 19, 26 climate parameters, general, 40, 90 coping strategies, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99 effects of climate variability, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 32, 68-70 encroachment on forests, 47 global warming, beliefs of farmers, 72-73 “green revolution” as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83, 119 information dissemination to, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 80-83 (passim), 90, 109 insurance, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138 market mechanisms, 42, 44, 49, 57, 58 usefulness of forecasts, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 81, 113-115, 117 see also Drought; Food supply; Rural areas Argentina, 8, 52 Asia El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8 monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90 see also specific countries Atlantic Ocean, 16 North Atlantic Oscillation, 34 Atmosphere-ocean interactions, see Ocean-atmosphere interactions Atmospheric pressure, 22, 24, 25, 30 Attitudes see Beliefs; Cultural factors Australia, 8-9, 26, 33, 47 B Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117 Beliefs, 3, 13, 16, 71-73, 118, 124, 134 fishery management, 46

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human information processing, 73-74, 77, 81, 94 see also Cultural factors Boundary conditions, 21, 22, 23, 37 see also Ocean-atmosphere interactions Brazil, 8, 9, 25, 47, 68-70 Bureau of Reclamation, 67-68 C California, 7-8, 33-34, 48, 50 Cane-Zebiak model, 27, 28 Case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134 Chile, 8, 26 Climate, definition, 11, 18-19, 22 Climate parameters, general, 2-3, 103, 125, 130, 131 agricultural sector, 40, 90 information dissemination, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127 ocean-atmosphere interactions, 37 public health and, 66, 90 sector/group sensitivity, 37, 125, 131 skill of forecasts, 37 traditional forecasts, 72 usefulness of forecasts, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127 see also Atmospheric pressure; Precipitation; Temperature factors Coastal areas, x, 15, 32, 46, 48 see also Tropical storms Communication between forecast producers and consumers, 36, 37, 84 persuasive, 85, 93 see also Information dissemination; Participatory approaches; Risk communication Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts, 2, 5-7, 95-123, 125 , 126, 136-140 El Niño, 7-10 see also Distribution of costs and benefits; Effects of climate variations/forecasts Coping strategies and systems, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11-13, 16-17, 38-62, 124, 126-127, 129, 130-131 agricultural sector, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99 cost and cost-benefit, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68 cultural factors, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62 decision making, general, 38, 50-51, 59, 62 developing countries, general, 42-43, 51 disparities, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61 diversification, 41, 44, 60 drought, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58 effects of climate variability and, 98-99, 108, 137, 138 ex ante and ex post, 40-42, 58-60, 99 fisheries management, 45-46 flood management, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59 forests and other ecosystems, 47-48 health effects, 39, 51-52 hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62 information dissemination and, 62, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134 institutional, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim), 54, 60, 99, 139 market mechanisms, 39, 42, 44, 49, 57-58; see also "hedging" supra organizational, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57 theory of, 130-131 value of forecasts, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137 water supply, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69 see also Emergency preparedness and response; Insurance and reinsurance Cost and cost-benefit factors, 19-20, 93-94, 107-108, 112-114, 119 , 120, 122-123 agricultural sector, 41, 42, 43, 45, 108, 117

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coping strategies, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 97 fishery management, 45, 46 flooding, 51, 112 see also Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts; Distribution of costs and benefits; Effects of climate variations/forecasts Cultural factors, 3, 4, 13, 40 beliefs about weather, 71-73, 77 coping strategies, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62 "green revolution" as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83 information dissemination and, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133 organizational, 4, 77-79 risk perception/behavior, 77 see also Beliefs D Decision making, general, x, xi, 12, 34, 35-36, 100, 101-102, 103-108, 111-112, 114-116 Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117 coping strategies, 38, 50-51, 59, 62 human information processing, model of, 73-74, 94 information dissemination, 63, 64-65 response to forecasting, 71, 72, 73-74, 90, 94 see also Uncertainty Department of Energy, xi Department of the Interior, see Bureau of Reclamation Developing countries, general, ix, 8, 108 coping strategies, 42-43, 51 Global Telecommunications System, 20 see also Famine; specific countries Diet and nutrition, see Nutrition Disasters, general, 1 emergency preparedness, 6, 53, 55-57 warnings, 80, 82-93, 85, 87, 88 see also Drought; Emergency preparedness and response; Emergency warning systems; Famine; Fires; Floods; Insurance and reinsurance; Tropical storms; Vulnerability to climate variations Diseases and disorders, see Health effects Dissemination of information, see Information dissemination Distribution of costs and benefits of climate variation, 97, 105-106 coping strategies, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61 forecast information, 66-67, 82-83, 86, 93-94 of improved forecasts, 6, 119, 122-123, 129, 139-140 Diversification, as coping strategy, 41, 44, 60 Drought, 14, 67-68, 83, 102, 140 coping strategies, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, x, 8-9, 40, 68-70 forecasts, 68-70 E Ecology, 47-48, 50, 108 infectious diseases, 51-52 marine mammals, 9, 48 see also Fisheries; Forests Economic factors, 6, 8, 14, 35, 96, 113 models, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117 sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 93, 96, 97, 104 , 120, 133; see also specific sectors see also Agricultural sector; Cost

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and cost-benefit factors; Developing countries; Fisheries; Forests; Insurance and reinsurance; Market forces; Water supply Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations program, x Ecuador, 8, 26, 33 Education, see Information dissemination Educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139 literacy, 81, 93 Effects of climate variations/forecasts, 5, 6, 95-123, 126, 136-140 agricultural sector, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123 coping strategies, general, 98-99, 108, 137, 138 defined, 96 El Niño, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134 insurance sector, 96, 97, 112, 139 models, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139 regional factors, 96, 104, 120 time factors, 96, 97, 125 value of forecasting vs, 95-96 see also Consequences of climate variations/forecasts; Distribution of costs and benefits El Niño/Southern Oscillation, x, 1-2, 7-10, 16, 19, 23-34, 64, 68-70, 101, 109, 110, 127, 141 agricultural sector, 8, 32, 68-70 cost and cost-benefit factors, 8, 97 drought, x, 8-9, 40, 68-70 effects of forecasts, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134 forest fires, 8, 47 health effects, 8, 9, 51-52 information dissemination, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134 Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30 marine ecosystems, 9, 47-48 nowcasting, 31-32 precipitation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34 sea surface temperature, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34 spatial factors, 32-33 tropical storms, 8, 32, 109 Emergency preparedness and response, 6, 35, 55-57, 59, 67, 70, 78-79, 82-83, 109 refugees, 8 Emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 , 87, 88 Environmental protection, see Ecology; Pro-environmental behavior Ethical issues, see Legal/ethical issues Europe, 16 F Famine, ix, 35, 70-71, 90 Federal Emergency Management Agency, 112 Federal government, 95 agricultural insurance, 43, 64 flood insurance, 55, 112 funding, general, 95 reinsurance, 55 see also specific departments and agencies Fires, 55, 56 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47 Fisheries, 32, 33-34, 45-46, 47-48, 62, 111 Floods, 7, 8, 13, 35, 50-51, 70, 97, 105 coping strategies, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59 cost and cost-benefit factors, 51, 112 federal insurance, 55, 112 forecasts, 51 vulnerability, 15, 97 warning systems, 86 Florida, 62 Food supply, ix, 14, 40, 57, 108 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9 see also Agricultural sector; Famine; Nutrition

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Forecasting, general, x, 1-2, 7, 9-10 benefits of, 3, 10, 12-13, 15, 95, 101, 119, 130-133; see also "usefulness" infra consequences of, 2, 95-123, 125, 126, 136-140 coping strategies and, general, 38, 39, 42-43, 44-45, 46, 50-51, 52, 54, 59, 60, 63 disparities of benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139 drought, 68-70 failures, 4, 10, 67-68, 69-70, 76, 113-114, 135 famine, 70-71 flood, 51 hindcasts, 24 nowcasting, 20-21, 27, 31-32 overconfidence, 76, 92, 127 response to forecasts, 67-77, 91-92, 138-139 sea surface temperature, 23 sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 93, 96, 97, 120, 133; see also specific sectors short-term, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134; see also "nowcasting" supra skill, general, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138; see also "failures" supra technology of, 18-29 traditional, 71-73 usefulness, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 125, 126, 127-128, 130 see also Information dissemination; Information in climate forecasts; Interannual variability; Seasonal factors; Uncertainty Foreign countries see also Developing countries; International programs; specific countries Forests, ix, 47, 56, 102 agricultural encroachment, 47 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47 Foundation for Meteorological and Hydrological Resources (Brazil), 69 G Global Change Research Program, 1 Global Telecommunications System, 20 Global warming, x, 13, 35, 72-73 Government role, 69-70, 111 disaster transfer payments, 13, 138 funding, 95 information dissemination, 87 see also Emergency preparedness and response; Federal government; State government Greenhouse effect, see Global warming H Health effects, 35, 39, 51-52, 59-60, 66 coping strategies, general, 39, 51-52 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9, 51-52 emergency preparedness and response, 55, 90 nutrition, 14, 51, 52, 71; see also Famine; Food supply public health information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88 public health, other, 66, 90 risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88 Healthy behaviors, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88 Hedging strategies, 41-42, 44, 57-58, 60, 62 Hindcasts, 24 Historical perspectives, ix, 27-28, 38, 140-141 agricultural insurance, 43 climate indicators, 35

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forecasting, general, 22-23 human information processing, 73-74 interannual changes, 11 numerical forecasting, 21 response to forecasts, 67-72, 91 seasonal changes, 11, 38 Holdridge Life Ozone Classification, 35 Households, 11, 53, 62, 81, 85, 106 Human Relations Area Files, 71 Hurricanes, see Tropical storms I Impacts see Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts; Effects of climatic variations/forecasts India, 32, 40, 42, 43-44, 82, 90, 103-104, 106 Individual responses, 4, 17, 38-39, 61, 66-67, 127 beliefs about weather and climate, 71-72 households, 11, 53, 62, 81, 85, 106 informational analogs to forecasts, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92 information processing, 73-77 see also Educational attainment; Socioeconomic status Indonesia, 47 Information dissemination, 2, 3-4, 36, 63-94, 111, 127-128, 133-136, 139 agricultural sector, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 80-83 (passim), 90, 109 analogies from fields outside climate forecasting, 79-87, 89, 91-92, 119 risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88 case studies of, 67-71 channels, 81-82, 92 climate parameters, general, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127 cultural factors, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133 delivery systems, 3-4, 59, 81-84, 92-93, 128, 135-136 disaster warning as analog, 80, 82-86 educational attainment and, see Educational attainment El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134 Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30 emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 , 87 ethical and legal issues, 40, 136 global, 20, 21; see also Internet green revolution as analog, 80, 82-83 hedging and, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62 individuals' responses, 4, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92 models of, 86-89 organizational responses, 4, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131 , 134-135, 139 participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133 persuasive communication, 85-86, 87, 93, 128 proenvironmental behavior as analog, 80-86 public health as analog, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88 redundancy, 81-82 risk communication as analog, 80, 87-88 socioeconomic status, and see Socioeconomic status vulnerability and, 68, 83, 90, 94 see also Decision making; Distribution of costs and benefits; Information in climate forecasts; Internet; Learning theory; Risk communication

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Information in climate forecasts, 2-3, 63-67 authoritarian approaches, 87, 88 characteristics of, 79 coping strategies and, 60, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134 cultural factors, 71-73, 133 fishery management, 46 human information processing and, 73-77, 94 matching to recipient, 63-67, 81, 89-91, 127, 130-133 and nonclimatic information, 62 organizational responses, 77-79, 134-135 sources of, 81-82 uncertainty, 4, 65, 75-76, 77-78, 79, 81, 87-93 (passim), 111-112, 133, 134, 135 understanding of, 3, 73-77, 133-134 usefulness of, 2-3, 63-67 See also Forecasting; Information dissemination Institute for Business and Home Safety, 55 Institutional factors coping, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim), 54, 60, 99, 139 usefulness of forecasts, 64, 65, 122 see also Market forces; Organizational factors Insurance and reinsurance, 6, 7, 13, 14, 39, 42, 54-55, 59, 60, 123 agricultural sector, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138 effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 112, 139 industry organizational response, 78 informal, 43-44 usefulness of forecasts, 65-66, 67, 110, 120 Interannual variability, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15, 16, 21-22, 125 climate defined, 19 climate indices, 35 coping strategies, 11, 38-62 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, 106 International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 105 International perspectives, see also Developing countries; Foreign countries; Regional factors; specific countries and continents International programs, x, 21, 105, 106 International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, xi Internet beliefs about weather, 71 El Niño, 19, 23-24, 29, 30 seasonal/interannual prediction, other, 19, 31, 55 L Learning theory, 4, 30, 74, 75, 78, 79, 82, 92, 104, 128 Bayesian, 104, 115-117 Legal/ethical issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136 M Marine mammals, 9, 48 Market forces, 39, 57-58 agricultural sector, coping strategies, 41-42, 44, 49, 57, 58 hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62 see also Insurance and reinsurance Mass media, ix, 4, 7, 10, 16, 85-86, 92, 110, 134, 136 Meta-data, 5, 123, 129 Mexico, 8, 47, 82-83, 88-89, 106, 109 Models and modeling, 1-2, 3, 114-115, 128-129 Cane-Zebiak model, 27, 28 computable general equilibrium, 107-108

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coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1-2, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125 deterministic, 75, 79, 101, 102-103, 135 economic, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117 effects of climate variation, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139 firm-level decision models, 106-108 human information processing, 73-77, 94 individual's perceptions, 4, 17, 79-80, 81, 91 input-output, 104, 108 mesoscale, 33 NINO3 and, 27-28 ocean, 24, 29, 125; see also "coupled..." supra organizational responses to information, 77-78, 91-92, 131 participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133 reduced-form, 101-103, 121 scientific capability of, 100-108, 111-113, 121-122, 128-129 social factors, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125 value of climate forecasts, 110-111, 114-120 see also Statistical analyses Monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90 N National Aeronautics and Space Administration, xi National Bureau of Economic Research, 35 National Flood Insurance Program, 55, 112 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, x-xi, 1-2 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 7 see also Office of Global Programs National Science Foundation, xi NINO3, 26, 27-28 North Atlantic Oscillation, 34 Nowcasting, 20-21, 27 El Niño, 31-32 Numerical models, see Statistical analyses Nutrition, 14, 51, 52, 71 see also Famine; Food supply O Ocean-atmosphere interactions, x, 23-24, 37 models, 1-2, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125 sea ice, 21 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation; Sea surface temperature Office of Global Programs, x, xii, 52 Organizational factors, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 71, 106-107 coping strategies, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57 culture, 4, 77-79 "groupthink," 78 new information, responses to, 77-79, 94, 128 response to information, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131, 134-135, 139 Overconfidence in forecasts, 76, 92, 127 P Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 34 Pacific Ocean, 26, 30, 33 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation Parameters, climate, see Climate parameters Participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132

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Peru, 8, 9, 26, 33, 111 Poverty, see Developing countries; Socioeconomic status Precipitation, 11, 12, 22, 25, 26, 30, 36, 81, 90, 105 El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34 sector-based forecasts, 32 see also Drought; Floods; Monsoons Pressure, see Atmospheric pressure Private sector, general, 21, 134 fishery resource ownership, 45 Pro-environmental behavior, 35, 50, 87 fisheries, 45-46 forests and other ecosystems, 47-48 "green revolution", 80, 82-83, 119 information systems, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 Psychological factors, see Beliefs; Cultural factors Public health, see Health effects Public information, see Information dissemination; Information in climate forecasts R Rain, see Floods; Monsoons; Precipitation Refugees, 8 Regional factors, x, 3, 33, 128, 133 coping strategies, 48, 49, 51, 55, 56 effects of climate variation, 96, 104, 120 value/usefulness of forecasts, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130 , 133 see also Atlantic Ocean; Pacific Ocean; specific continents and countries Reinsurance, see Insurance and reinsurance Risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88 Risk management, see Coping strategies and systems; Insurance and reinsurance Rural areas, x, 50, 106 see also Agricultural sector S Satellite technology, 70-71 Global Telecommunications System, 20 Sea ice, 21, 23 Seasonal factors, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15, 16, 21-22, 69-71, 117 , 136 climate indices, 35 coping strategies, 11, 38-62 usefulness of forecasts, 66, 125 Sea surface temperature, 21, 23, 25-27, 29, 37, 69 coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125 El Niño, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34 Sensitivity to climate variations, 5, 13-14, 15, 36, 40, 61-62, 71 , 89, 96, 110, 112, 119, 120, 121, 125, 126, 128, 131 coping strategies, 54, 60, 61-62, 126 defined, 14 Short-term climate prediction, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134 see also Emergency warning systems; Nowcasting Skill of climate forecasts, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138 defined, 26-27 failures, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135 see also Uncertainty Social factors, xi, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11-16, 18, 35, 38, 69, 109, 113 , 127, 137-138 case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134 coping strategies, 43-45, 53, 60-61, 62, 98-99 models of, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125

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organizational, 4, 77-79 public health as analog to information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87 see also Beliefs; Coping strategies and systems; Cultural factors; Distribution of costs and benefits; Economic factors; Refugees; Vulnerability to climate variations Socioeconomic status, ix-x, 6, 61, 120, 126 coping strategies, 61, 126 disparities of forecast benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139 educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139 effects of climate variability, models of, 103-104, 106 information dissemination, 81, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 136 see also Developing countries South America El Niño, 8, 16, 47 see also specific countries Spatial factors, general, 2-3, 91, 120, 122, 127 El Niño, 32-33 geographic information systems, 103 see also Regional factors State government, 7-8, 48, 50, 62 Statistical analyses, 21, 22-28, 100, 102, 128 climate defined, 18-19, 22 stochastic processes, 103, 106-107 time series, 26-28, 101, 113, 120 Stochastic processes, 103, 106-107 Surface conditions, see Boundary conditions; Sea surface temperature T Temperature factors, 25, 26, 36, 90 climate defined, 18-19, 22 frost, 13, 19, 89 see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Oscillation Time factors, general, 2-3, 5, 32, 37, 120, 122, 127 effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 125 information dissemination, timing/updating of, 78, 90, 93, 127 sensitivity/vulnerability to climate change, 15 see also Nowcasting; Interannual variability; Seasonal factors Time-series analysis, 26-28, 101, 113, 120 Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean (TAO) Array, 23-24 Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, 21 Tropical storms, 58, 62, 86, 140 El Niño/Southern Oscillation and, 8, 32, 109 urban areas, 15 U Uncertainty, general, 2, 4, 10, 36-37, 37-39, 65, 88, 118, 125 accuracy thresholds, 91 chaos, 2, 36 ethical/legal issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136 failures in forecasting, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135 fishery management, 45-46 in forecasts, 4, 75-76, 92, 118 human information processing, 75-76, 79 information dissemination, 65, 75-76, 77-78, 79, 81, 87-93 (passim), 111-112, 133, 134, 135

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nowcasting, 27 organizational responses to, 77-78 trust, levels of, 81, 87, 89, 92 see also Coping strategies and systems; Skill of climate forecasts Urban areas, x, 8, 15 USAID, see Agency for International Development V Value of climate forecasting, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 130-133, 140 agricultural sector, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 81, 113-115, 117 climate parameters, general, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127 coping strategies and, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137 disparities forecast benefits, ix-x, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131 effects of forecasting vs, 95-96 institutional factors, 64, 65, 122 insurance, 65-66, 67, 110, 120 regional, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130, 133 sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 130, 131-132, 133; see also specific sectors see also Uncertainty Vector-borne diseases, 52, 90 Venezuela, 8, 9 Vulnerability to climate variations, x, 2, 5, 6, 14-15, 51, 61-62, 105-106, 121, 122, 125, 128, 139 climate indicators, general, 35 coping strategies, 60, 61-62, 126 defined, 14-15 information dissemination, 68, 83, 90, 94 see also Sensitivity to climate variations W Warning systems, see Emergency warning systems; Nowcasting Water supply, 1, 8, 9, 11, 12, 26, 67-68, 108, 113-114 coping strategies, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69 see also Drought Wind, 11, 24, 27, 32, 102 World Wide Web, see Internet Y Yakima Valley, 67-68