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Index
A
Africa, 16, 42, 43, 44, 48, 114
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 9, 40
Agency for International
Development, 70
Agricultural sector, ix, 11-12, 13, 14, 19, 26
climate parameters, general, 40, 90
coping strategies, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99
effects of climate variability, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 32, 68-70
encroachment on forests, 47
global warming, beliefs of farmers, 72-73
“green revolution” as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83, 119
information dissemination to, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 80-83 (passim), 90, 109
insurance, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138
market mechanisms, 42, 44, 49, 57, 58
usefulness of forecasts, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 81, 113-115, 117
see also Drought;
Food supply;
Rural areas
Argentina, 8, 52
Asia
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8
monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90
see also specific countries
Atlantic Ocean, 16
North Atlantic Oscillation, 34
Atmosphere-ocean interactions, see Ocean-atmosphere interactions
Atmospheric pressure, 22, 24, 25, 30
Attitudes see Beliefs;
Cultural factors
Australia, 8-9, 26, 33, 47
B
Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117
Beliefs, 3, 13, 16, 71-73, 118, 124, 134
fishery management, 46
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human information processing, 73-74, 77, 81, 94
see also Cultural factors
Boundary conditions, 21, 22, 23, 37
see also Ocean-atmosphere interactions
Brazil, 8, 9, 25, 47, 68-70
Bureau of Reclamation, 67-68
C
California, 7-8, 33-34, 48, 50
Cane-Zebiak model, 27, 28
Case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134
Chile, 8, 26
Climate, definition, 11, 18-19, 22
Climate parameters, general, 2-3, 103, 125, 130, 131
agricultural sector, 40, 90
information dissemination, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127
ocean-atmosphere interactions, 37
public health and, 66, 90
sector/group sensitivity, 37, 125, 131
skill of forecasts, 37
traditional forecasts, 72
usefulness of forecasts, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127
see also Atmospheric pressure;
Precipitation;
Temperature factors
Coastal areas, x, 15, 32, 46, 48
see also Tropical storms
Communication
between forecast producers and consumers, 36, 37, 84
persuasive, 85, 93
see also Information dissemination;
Participatory approaches;
Risk communication
Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts, 2, 5-7, 95-123, 125 , 126, 136-140
El Niño, 7-10
see also Distribution of costs and benefits;
Effects of climate variations/forecasts
Coping strategies and systems, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11-13, 16-17, 38-62, 124, 126-127, 129, 130-131
agricultural sector, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99
cost and cost-benefit, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68
cultural factors, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62
decision making, general, 38, 50-51, 59, 62
developing countries, general, 42-43, 51
disparities, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61
diversification, 41, 44, 60
drought, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58
effects of climate variability and, 98-99, 108, 137, 138
ex ante and ex post, 40-42, 58-60, 99
fisheries management, 45-46
flood management, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59
forests and other ecosystems, 47-48
health effects, 39, 51-52
hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62
information dissemination and, 62, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134
institutional, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim), 54, 60, 99, 139
market mechanisms, 39, 42, 44, 49, 57-58;
see also "hedging" supra
organizational, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57
theory of, 130-131
value of forecasts, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137
water supply, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69
see also Emergency preparedness and response;
Insurance and reinsurance
Cost and cost-benefit factors, 19-20, 93-94, 107-108, 112-114, 119 , 120, 122-123
agricultural sector, 41, 42, 43, 45, 108, 117
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coping strategies, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 97
fishery management, 45, 46
flooding, 51, 112
see also Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts;
Distribution of costs and benefits;
Effects of climate variations/forecasts
Cultural factors, 3, 4, 13, 40
beliefs about weather, 71-73, 77
coping strategies, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62
"green revolution" as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83
information dissemination and, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133
organizational, 4, 77-79
risk perception/behavior, 77
see also Beliefs
D
Decision making, general, x, xi, 12, 34, 35-36, 100, 101-102, 103-108, 111-112, 114-116
Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117
coping strategies, 38, 50-51, 59, 62
human information processing, model of, 73-74, 94
information dissemination, 63, 64-65
response to forecasting, 71, 72, 73-74, 90, 94
see also Uncertainty
Department of Energy, xi
Department of the Interior, see Bureau of Reclamation
Developing countries, general, ix, 8, 108
coping strategies, 42-43, 51
Global Telecommunications System, 20
see also Famine;
specific countries
Diet and nutrition, see Nutrition
Disasters, general, 1
emergency preparedness, 6, 53, 55-57
warnings, 80, 82-93, 85, 87, 88
see also Drought;
Emergency preparedness and response;
Emergency warning systems;
Famine;
Fires;
Floods;
Insurance and reinsurance;
Tropical storms;
Vulnerability to climate variations
Diseases and disorders, see Health effects
Dissemination of information, see Information dissemination
Distribution of costs and benefits
of climate variation, 97, 105-106
coping strategies, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61
forecast information, 66-67, 82-83, 86, 93-94
of improved forecasts, 6, 119, 122-123, 129, 139-140
Diversification, as coping strategy, 41, 44, 60
Drought, 14, 67-68, 83, 102, 140
coping strategies, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, x, 8-9, 40, 68-70
forecasts, 68-70
E
Ecology, 47-48, 50, 108
infectious diseases, 51-52
marine mammals, 9, 48
see also Fisheries;
Forests
Economic factors, 6, 8, 14, 35, 96, 113
models, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117
sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 93, 96, 97, 104 , 120, 133;
see also specific sectors
see also Agricultural sector;
Cost
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and cost-benefit factors;
Developing countries;
Fisheries;
Forests;
Insurance and reinsurance;
Market forces;
Water supply
Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations program, x
Ecuador, 8, 26, 33
Education, see Information dissemination
Educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139
literacy, 81, 93
Effects of climate variations/forecasts, 5, 6, 95-123, 126, 136-140
agricultural sector, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123
coping strategies, general, 98-99, 108, 137, 138
defined, 96
El Niño, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134
insurance sector, 96, 97, 112, 139
models, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139
regional factors, 96, 104, 120
time factors, 96, 97, 125
value of forecasting vs, 95-96
see also Consequences of climate variations/forecasts;
Distribution of costs and benefits
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, x, 1-2, 7-10, 16, 19, 23-34, 64, 68-70, 101, 109, 110, 127, 141
agricultural sector, 8, 32, 68-70
cost and cost-benefit factors, 8, 97
drought, x, 8-9, 40, 68-70
effects of forecasts, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134
forest fires, 8, 47
health effects, 8, 9, 51-52
information dissemination, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134
Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30
marine ecosystems, 9, 47-48
nowcasting, 31-32
precipitation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34
sea surface temperature, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34
spatial factors, 32-33
tropical storms, 8, 32, 109
Emergency preparedness and response, 6, 35, 55-57, 59, 67, 70, 78-79, 82-83, 109
refugees, 8
Emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 , 87, 88
Environmental protection, see Ecology;
Pro-environmental behavior
Ethical issues, see Legal/ethical issues
Europe, 16
F
Famine, ix, 35, 70-71, 90
Federal Emergency Management Agency, 112
Federal government, 95
agricultural insurance, 43, 64
flood insurance, 55, 112
funding, general, 95
reinsurance, 55
see also specific departments and agencies
Fires, 55, 56
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47
Fisheries, 32, 33-34, 45-46, 47-48, 62, 111
Floods, 7, 8, 13, 35, 50-51, 70, 97, 105
coping strategies, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59
cost and cost-benefit factors, 51, 112
federal insurance, 55, 112
forecasts, 51
vulnerability, 15, 97
warning systems, 86
Florida, 62
Food supply, ix, 14, 40, 57, 108
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9
see also Agricultural sector;
Famine;
Nutrition
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Forecasting, general, x, 1-2, 7, 9-10
benefits of, 3, 10, 12-13, 15, 95, 101, 119, 130-133;
see also "usefulness" infra
consequences of, 2, 95-123, 125, 126, 136-140
coping strategies and, general, 38, 39, 42-43, 44-45, 46, 50-51, 52, 54, 59, 60, 63
disparities of benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139
drought, 68-70
failures, 4, 10, 67-68, 69-70, 76, 113-114, 135
famine, 70-71
flood, 51
hindcasts, 24
nowcasting, 20-21, 27, 31-32
overconfidence, 76, 92, 127
response to forecasts, 67-77, 91-92, 138-139
sea surface temperature, 23
sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 93, 96, 97, 120, 133;
see also specific sectors
short-term, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134;
see also "nowcasting" supra
skill, general, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138;
see also "failures" supra
technology of, 18-29
traditional, 71-73
usefulness, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 125, 126, 127-128, 130
see also Information dissemination;
Information in climate forecasts;
Interannual variability;
Seasonal factors;
Uncertainty
Foreign countries
see also Developing countries;
International programs;
specific countries
Forests, ix, 47, 56, 102
agricultural encroachment, 47
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47
Foundation for Meteorological and Hydrological Resources (Brazil), 69
G
Global Change Research Program, 1
Global Telecommunications System, 20
Global warming, x, 13, 35, 72-73
Government role, 69-70, 111
disaster transfer payments, 13, 138
funding, 95
information dissemination, 87
see also Emergency preparedness and response;
Federal government;
State government
Greenhouse effect, see Global warming
H
Health effects, 35, 39, 51-52, 59-60, 66
coping strategies, general, 39, 51-52
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9, 51-52
emergency preparedness and response, 55, 90
nutrition, 14, 51, 52, 71;
see also Famine;
Food supply
public health information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88
public health, other, 66, 90
risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88
Healthy behaviors, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88
Hedging strategies, 41-42, 44, 57-58, 60, 62
Hindcasts, 24
Historical perspectives, ix, 27-28, 38, 140-141
agricultural insurance, 43
climate indicators, 35
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forecasting, general, 22-23
human information processing, 73-74
interannual changes, 11
numerical forecasting, 21
response to forecasts, 67-72, 91
seasonal changes, 11, 38
Holdridge Life Ozone Classification, 35
Households, 11, 53, 62, 81, 85, 106
Human Relations Area Files, 71
Hurricanes, see Tropical storms
I
Impacts
see Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts;
Effects of climatic variations/forecasts
India, 32, 40, 42, 43-44, 82, 90, 103-104, 106
Individual responses, 4, 17, 38-39, 61, 66-67, 127
beliefs about weather and climate, 71-72
households, 11, 53, 62, 81, 85, 106
informational analogs to forecasts, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92
information processing, 73-77
see also Educational attainment;
Socioeconomic status
Indonesia, 47
Information dissemination, 2, 3-4, 36, 63-94, 111, 127-128, 133-136, 139
agricultural sector, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 80-83 (passim), 90, 109
analogies from fields outside climate forecasting, 79-87, 89, 91-92, 119
risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88
case studies of, 67-71
channels, 81-82, 92
climate parameters, general, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127
cultural factors, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133
delivery systems, 3-4, 59, 81-84, 92-93, 128, 135-136
disaster warning as analog, 80, 82-86
educational attainment and, see Educational attainment
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134
Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30
emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 , 87
ethical and legal issues, 40, 136
global, 20, 21;
see also Internet
green revolution as analog, 80, 82-83
hedging and, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62
individuals' responses, 4, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92
models of, 86-89
organizational responses, 4, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131 , 134-135, 139
participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133
persuasive communication, 85-86, 87, 93, 128
proenvironmental behavior as analog, 80-86
public health as analog, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88
redundancy, 81-82
risk communication as analog, 80, 87-88
socioeconomic status, and see Socioeconomic status
vulnerability and, 68, 83, 90, 94
see also Decision making;
Distribution of costs and benefits;
Information in climate forecasts;
Internet;
Learning theory;
Risk communication
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Information in climate forecasts, 2-3, 63-67
authoritarian approaches, 87, 88
characteristics of, 79
coping strategies and, 60, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134
cultural factors, 71-73, 133
fishery management, 46
human information processing and, 73-77, 94
matching to recipient, 63-67, 81, 89-91, 127, 130-133
and nonclimatic information, 62
organizational responses, 77-79, 134-135
sources of, 81-82
uncertainty, 4, 65, 75-76, 77-78, 79, 81, 87-93 (passim), 111-112, 133, 134, 135
understanding of, 3, 73-77, 133-134
usefulness of, 2-3, 63-67
See also Forecasting;
Information dissemination
Institute for Business and Home Safety, 55
Institutional factors
coping, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim), 54, 60, 99, 139
usefulness of forecasts, 64, 65, 122
see also Market forces;
Organizational factors
Insurance and reinsurance, 6, 7, 13, 14, 39, 42, 54-55, 59, 60, 123
agricultural sector, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138
effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 112, 139
industry organizational response, 78
informal, 43-44
usefulness of forecasts, 65-66, 67, 110, 120
Interannual variability, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15, 16, 21-22, 125
climate defined, 19
climate indices, 35
coping strategies, 11, 38-62
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;
North Atlantic Oscillation
International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, 106
International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 105
International perspectives, see also Developing countries;
Foreign countries;
Regional factors;
specific countries and continents
International programs, x, 21, 105, 106
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, xi
Internet
beliefs about weather, 71
El Niño, 19, 23-24, 29, 30
seasonal/interannual prediction, other, 19, 31, 55
L
Learning theory, 4, 30, 74, 75, 78, 79, 82, 92, 104, 128
Bayesian, 104, 115-117
Legal/ethical issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136
M
Marine mammals, 9, 48
Market forces, 39, 57-58
agricultural sector, coping strategies, 41-42, 44, 49, 57, 58
hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62
see also Insurance and reinsurance
Mass media, ix, 4, 7, 10, 16, 85-86, 92, 110, 134, 136
Meta-data, 5, 123, 129
Mexico, 8, 47, 82-83, 88-89, 106, 109
Models and modeling, 1-2, 3, 114-115, 128-129
Cane-Zebiak model, 27, 28
computable general equilibrium, 107-108
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coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1-2, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125
deterministic, 75, 79, 101, 102-103, 135
economic, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117
effects of climate variation, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139
firm-level decision models, 106-108
human information processing, 73-77, 94
individual's perceptions, 4, 17, 79-80, 81, 91
input-output, 104, 108
mesoscale, 33
NINO3 and, 27-28
ocean, 24, 29, 125;
see also "coupled..." supra
organizational responses to information, 77-78, 91-92, 131
participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133
reduced-form, 101-103, 121
scientific capability of, 100-108, 111-113, 121-122, 128-129
social factors, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125
value of climate forecasts, 110-111, 114-120
see also Statistical analyses
Monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90
N
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, xi
National Bureau of Economic Research, 35
National Flood Insurance Program, 55, 112
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, x-xi, 1-2
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 7
see also Office of Global Programs
National Science Foundation, xi
NINO3, 26, 27-28
North Atlantic Oscillation, 34
Nowcasting, 20-21, 27
El Niño, 31-32
Numerical models, see Statistical analyses
Nutrition, 14, 51, 52, 71
see also Famine;
Food supply
O
Ocean-atmosphere interactions, x, 23-24, 37
models, 1-2, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125
sea ice, 21
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;
North Atlantic Oscillation;
Sea surface temperature
Office of Global Programs, x, xii, 52
Organizational factors, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 71, 106-107
coping strategies, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57
culture, 4, 77-79
"groupthink," 78
new information, responses to, 77-79, 94, 128
response to information, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131, 134-135, 139
Overconfidence in forecasts, 76, 92, 127
P
Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 34
Pacific Ocean, 26, 30, 33
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation
Parameters, climate, see Climate parameters
Participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132
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Peru, 8, 9, 26, 33, 111
Poverty, see Developing countries;
Socioeconomic status
Precipitation, 11, 12, 22, 25, 26, 30, 36, 81, 90, 105
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34
sector-based forecasts, 32
see also Drought;
Floods;
Monsoons
Pressure, see Atmospheric pressure
Private sector, general, 21, 134
fishery resource ownership, 45
Pro-environmental behavior, 35, 50, 87
fisheries, 45-46
forests and other ecosystems, 47-48
"green revolution", 80, 82-83, 119
information systems, 80, 82-83, 85, 86
Psychological factors, see Beliefs;
Cultural factors
Public health, see Health effects
Public information, see Information dissemination;
Information in climate forecasts
R
Rain, see Floods;
Monsoons;
Precipitation
Refugees, 8
Regional factors, x, 3, 33, 128, 133
coping strategies, 48, 49, 51, 55, 56
effects of climate variation, 96, 104, 120
value/usefulness of forecasts, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130 , 133
see also Atlantic Ocean;
Pacific Ocean;
specific continents and countries
Reinsurance, see Insurance and reinsurance
Risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88
Risk management, see Coping strategies and systems;
Insurance and reinsurance
Rural areas, x, 50, 106
see also Agricultural sector
S
Satellite technology, 70-71
Global Telecommunications System, 20
Sea ice, 21, 23
Seasonal factors, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15, 16, 21-22, 69-71, 117 , 136
climate indices, 35
coping strategies, 11, 38-62
usefulness of forecasts, 66, 125
Sea surface temperature, 21, 23, 25-27, 29, 37, 69
coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125
El Niño, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34
Sensitivity to climate variations, 5, 13-14, 15, 36, 40, 61-62, 71 , 89, 96, 110, 112, 119, 120, 121, 125, 126, 128, 131
coping strategies, 54, 60, 61-62, 126
defined, 14
Short-term climate prediction, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134
see also Emergency warning systems;
Nowcasting
Skill of climate forecasts, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138
defined, 26-27
failures, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135
see also Uncertainty
Social factors, xi, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11-16, 18, 35, 38, 69, 109, 113 , 127, 137-138
case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134
coping strategies, 43-45, 53, 60-61, 62, 98-99
models of, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125
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organizational, 4, 77-79
public health as analog to information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87
see also Beliefs;
Coping strategies and systems;
Cultural factors;
Distribution of costs and benefits;
Economic factors;
Refugees;
Vulnerability to climate variations
Socioeconomic status, ix-x, 6, 61, 120, 126
coping strategies, 61, 126
disparities of forecast benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139
educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139
effects of climate variability, models of, 103-104, 106
information dissemination, 81, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 136
see also Developing countries
South America
El Niño, 8, 16, 47
see also specific countries
Spatial factors, general, 2-3, 91, 120, 122, 127
El Niño, 32-33
geographic information systems, 103
see also Regional factors
State government, 7-8, 48, 50, 62
Statistical analyses, 21, 22-28, 100, 102, 128
climate defined, 18-19, 22
stochastic processes, 103, 106-107
time series, 26-28, 101, 113, 120
Stochastic processes, 103, 106-107
Surface conditions, see Boundary conditions;
Sea surface temperature
T
Temperature factors, 25, 26, 36, 90
climate defined, 18-19, 22
frost, 13, 19, 89
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;
North Atlantic Oscillation;
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Time factors, general, 2-3, 5, 32, 37, 120, 122, 127
effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 125
information dissemination, timing/updating of, 78, 90, 93, 127
sensitivity/vulnerability to climate change, 15
see also Nowcasting;
Interannual variability;
Seasonal factors
Time-series analysis, 26-28, 101, 113, 120
Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean (TAO) Array, 23-24
Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, 21
Tropical storms, 58, 62, 86, 140
El Niño/Southern Oscillation and, 8, 32, 109
urban areas, 15
U
Uncertainty, general, 2, 4, 10, 36-37, 37-39, 65, 88, 118, 125
accuracy thresholds, 91
chaos, 2, 36
ethical/legal issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136
failures in forecasting, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135
fishery management, 45-46
in forecasts, 4, 75-76, 92, 118
human information processing, 75-76, 79
information dissemination, 65, 75-76, 77-78, 79, 81, 87-93 (passim), 111-112, 133, 134, 135
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nowcasting, 27
organizational responses to, 77-78
trust, levels of, 81, 87, 89, 92
see also Coping strategies and systems;
Skill of climate forecasts
Urban areas, x, 8, 15
USAID, see Agency for International Development
V
Value of climate forecasting, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 130-133, 140
agricultural sector, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 81, 113-115, 117
climate parameters, general, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127
coping strategies and, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137
disparities forecast benefits, ix-x, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131
effects of forecasting vs, 95-96
institutional factors, 64, 65, 122
insurance, 65-66, 67, 110, 120
regional, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130, 133
sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 130, 131-132, 133;
see also specific sectors
see also Uncertainty
Vector-borne diseases, 52, 90
Venezuela, 8, 9
Vulnerability to climate variations, x, 2, 5, 6, 14-15, 51, 61-62, 105-106, 121, 122, 125, 128, 139
climate indicators, general, 35
coping strategies, 60, 61-62, 126
defined, 14-15
information dissemination, 68, 83, 90, 94
see also Sensitivity to climate variations
W
Warning systems, see Emergency warning systems;
Nowcasting
Water supply, 1, 8, 9, 11, 12, 26, 67-68, 108, 113-114
coping strategies, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69
see also Drought
Wind, 11, 24, 27, 32, 102
World Wide Web, see Internet
Y
Yakima Valley, 67-68
