human information processing, 73-74, 77, 81, 94

see also Cultural factors

Boundary conditions, 21, 22, 23, 37

see also Ocean-atmosphere interactions

Brazil, 8, 9, 25, 47, 68-70

Bureau of Reclamation, 67-68

C

California, 7-8, 33-34, 48, 50

Cane-Zebiak model, 27, 28

Case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134

Chile, 8, 26

Climate, definition, 11, 18-19, 22

Climate parameters, general, 2-3, 103, 125, 130, 131

agricultural sector, 40, 90

information dissemination, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127

ocean-atmosphere interactions, 37

public health and, 66, 90

sector/group sensitivity, 37, 125, 131

skill of forecasts, 37

traditional forecasts, 72

usefulness of forecasts, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127

see also Atmospheric pressure;

Precipitation;

Temperature factors

Coastal areas, x, 15, 32, 46, 48

see also Tropical storms

Communication

between forecast producers and consumers, 36, 37, 84

persuasive, 85, 93

see also Information dissemination;

Participatory approaches;

Risk communication

Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts, 2, 5-7, 95-123, 125 , 126, 136-140

El Niño, 7-10

see also Distribution of costs and benefits;

Effects of climate variations/forecasts

Coping strategies and systems, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11-13, 16-17, 38-62, 124, 126-127, 129, 130-131

agricultural sector, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99

cost and cost-benefit, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68

cultural factors, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62

decision making, general, 38, 50-51, 59, 62

developing countries, general, 42-43, 51

disparities, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61

diversification, 41, 44, 60

drought, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58

effects of climate variability and, 98-99, 108, 137, 138

ex ante and ex post, 40-42, 58-60, 99

fisheries management, 45-46

flood management, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59

forests and other ecosystems, 47-48

health effects, 39, 51-52

hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62

information dissemination and, 62, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134

institutional, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim), 54, 60, 99, 139

market mechanisms, 39, 42, 44, 49, 57-58;

see also "hedging" supra

organizational, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57

theory of, 130-131

value of forecasts, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137

water supply, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69

see also Emergency preparedness and response;

Insurance and reinsurance

Cost and cost-benefit factors, 19-20, 93-94, 107-108, 112-114, 119 , 120, 122-123

agricultural sector, 41, 42, 43, 45, 108, 117



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