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expected to improve along with improved measurement of sea temperatures and other boundary conditions and better initialization of the forecasting models, forecast information will always include uncertainty.


The skill of climate predictions varies by geographic region, by climate parameter, and by time scale. This situation can be expected to continue.


Research addressed to questions framed by climate science is not necessarily useful to those whom climate affects. A climate forecast is useful to a particular recipient only if it is sufficiently skillful, timely, and relevant to actions the recipient can take to make it possible to undertake behavioral changes that improve outcomes.


Progress in measuring and modeling ocean-atmosphere interactions is likely to improve predictive skill in regions and for climatic parameters for which very limited skill now exists, thus increasing the potential for forecasts to be useful in new regions and for new purposes.


The utility of forecasts can be increased by systematic efforts to bring scientific output and users' needs closer together. These efforts may include both analytic efforts to identify the climatic parameters to which particular sectors or groups are highly sensitive or vulnerable and social processes that foster continual interaction between the producers and the consumers of forecasts.

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