Atmospheric Effects of Aviation

A Review of NASA's Subsonic Assessment Project

Panel on Atmospheric Effects of Aviation

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1999



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--> Atmospheric Effects of Aviation A Review of NASA's Subsonic Assessment Project Panel on Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1999

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--> NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NASW-4938 order No. 109. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency. Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area) www.nap.edu Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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--> PANEL ON ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF AVIATION THAT PREPARED THIS REPORT ALBERT J. KAEHN (Chair), Brigadier General, U.S. Air Force, retired *JACK G. CALVERT, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University (emeritus), Boston, Massachusetts *ANTONY D. CLARKE, University of Hawaii, Honolulu DIETER H. EHHALT, Institute für Atmosphärische Chemie, Jülich, Germany *DAVID J. ERICKSON III, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado *CLAIRE GRANIER, Université Paris, France; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado EDWARD M. GREITZER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge *PHILIPPE MIRABEL, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York W. GEORGE N. SLINN, Cascade Scientific Research Corporation, Richland, Washington *KNUT H. STAMNES, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Staff ELLEN F. RICE, Study Director (through 9/98) LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant *   Members of the subsonic working group

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--> CURRENT PANEL ON ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF AVIATION PAUL WINE (Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia GEORGE CARRIER, Harvard University, (Emeritus), Boston, Massachusetts DAVID ERICKSON III, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado NICHOLAS KRULL, Federal Aviation Administration and American Airlines, retired JOHN MCCONNELL, York University, Ontario, Canada PHILIPPE MIRABEL, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York KAREN ROSENLOF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado LYNN RUSSELL, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey CHESTER SPICER, Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio Staff LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant

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--> BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), International Technology Corporation, Torrance, California SUSAN K. AVERY, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts THOMAS J. LENNON, Weather Services International, Billerica, Massachusetts MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts Staff ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, Jr. , Director H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer DAVID SLADE, Senior Program Officer LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Associate TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant

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--> COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG Incorporated, St. George, Utah THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park MARY LOU ZOBACK, United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California Staff ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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--> The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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--> Preface This report is the fourth assessment provided to the NASA Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) by the National Research Council's Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation (PAEAN). The AEAP has two parts, the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) component and the Subsonic Assessment (SASS) component. The SASS project, which is the subject of this report, has the goal of assessing the environmental impacts of both the current and future fleets of subsonic civil transport aircraft. Begun in late 1993, SASS has sponsored field campaigns, laboratory studies, and atmospheric modeling efforts. The panel focuses here on SASS's recent self-evaluation, Atmospheric Effects of Subsonic Aircraft: Interim Assessment Report of the Advanced Subsonic Technology Program, and on the project's strategic plan for the next few years. Panel members were selected to provide expertise in field observations, laboratory chemistry, atmospheric dynamics and modeling, aircraft engines, and climate. NASA's charge to the panel is to evaluate the appropriateness of the SASS research plan, to appraise the project-sponsored results relative to the current state of scientific knowledge, to identify key scientific uncertainties, and to suggest research activities likely to reduce those uncertainties. PAEAN has already published a series of three interim evaluations of AEAP: An Interim Review of the Subsonic Assessment Project and An Interim Assessment of AEAP's Emissions Characterization and Near-Field Interactions Elements in 1997, and An Interim Review of the AESA Project: Science and Progress in 1998. A final evaluation of AESA is currently under way. The primary audience for these

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--> reports is the program managers and scientists affiliated with AEAP, although in some cases the topics discussed will likely be of interest to a wider audience. The panel appreciates the dedication of its longtime study director Ellen Rice, as well as the support of its new staff officer Laurie Geller. We are also grateful to the researchers and managers who have provided briefings and reports to keep the panel apprised of the progress of SASS and related research programs. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Alan Epstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Thomas Graedel, Yale University Matthew Hitchman, University of Wisconsin Sonia Kreidenweis, Colorado State University Shaw Liu, Georgia Institute of Technology John Seinfeld, California Institute of Technology While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authors and the NRC. ALBERT J. KAEHN, JR. FORMER PAEAN CHAIR

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--> Contents Executive Summary   1 1 Context for this Review   4     Introduction   4     The SASS Strategic Plan   5     The Goals and Organization of this Review   7 2 Discussion of the Science Issues   9     Gas-Phase Emissions, Characterization, and Chemistry   9     Aircraft Emission Issues   10     Tropospheric Ozone Trends   12     Simulation of j-Values   13     Particle Emissions, Characterization, and Chemistry   13     Sulfur Aerosols   14     Soot Emissions   16     Aerosol Size Distribution   18     Need for an Aerosol Climatology   19     Contrail Formation   20     Heterogeneous Chemistry   21     Atmospheric Dynamical Processes   24     Climate Impacts   25     Effects of Radiatively Active Gases   25     Effects of Particles and Contrails   25

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--> 3 Modeling Considerations   27     Studies With Existing Chemical-Transport Models   27     The Global Modeling Initiative   28     Climate Modeling   29 4 Priority Concerns and Recommendations   31     Science Issues   32     General Management Issues   33 References   35 Acronyms   40