NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NASW-4938 order No. 109. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency.
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PANEL ON ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF AVIATION THAT PREPARED THIS REPORT
ALBERT J. KAEHN (Chair), Brigadier General,
U.S. Air Force, retired
*JACK G. CALVERT,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
GEORGE F. CARRIER,
Harvard University (emeritus), Boston, Massachusetts
*ANTONY D. CLARKE,
University of Hawaii, Honolulu
DIETER H. EHHALT,
Institute für Atmosphärische Chemie, Jülich, Germany
*DAVID J. ERICKSON III,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
*CLAIRE GRANIER,
Université Paris, France; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado
EDWARD M. GREITZER,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
*PHILIPPE MIRABEL,
Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER,
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York
W. GEORGE N. SLINN,
Cascade Scientific Research Corporation, Richland, Washington
*KNUT H. STAMNES,
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Staff
ELLEN F. RICE, Study Director (through 9/98)
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
CURRENT PANEL ON ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF AVIATION
PAUL WINE (Chair),
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
GEORGE CARRIER,
Harvard University, (Emeritus), Boston, Massachusetts
DAVID ERICKSON III,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
NICHOLAS KRULL,
Federal Aviation Administration and American Airlines, retired
JOHN MCCONNELL,
York University, Ontario, Canada
PHILIPPE MIRABEL,
Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER,
Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York
KAREN ROSENLOF,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado
LYNN RUSSELL,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
CHESTER SPICER,
Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio
Staff
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair),
International Technology Corporation, Torrance, California
SUSAN K. AVERY, CIRES,
University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART,
State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER,
State University of New York, Stony Brook
DONALD M. HUNTEN,
University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE,
Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
CHARLES E. KOLB,
Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. LENNON,
Weather Services International, Billerica, Massachusetts
MARK R. SCHOEBERL,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE,
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, Jr. , Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer
DAVID SLADE, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Associate
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JERRY F. FRANKLIN,
University of Washington, Seattle
B. JOHN GARRICK,
PLG Incorporated, St. George, Utah
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE,
Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE,
Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
HUGH C. MORRIS,
Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
H. RONALD PULLIAM,
University of Georgia, Athens
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK,
United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
Staff
ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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Preface
This report is the fourth assessment provided to the NASA Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) by the National Research Council's Panel on the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation (PAEAN). The AEAP has two parts, the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) component and the Subsonic Assessment (SASS) component. The SASS project, which is the subject of this report, has the goal of assessing the environmental impacts of both the current and future fleets of subsonic civil transport aircraft. Begun in late 1993, SASS has sponsored field campaigns, laboratory studies, and atmospheric modeling efforts. The panel focuses here on SASS's recent self-evaluation, Atmospheric Effects of Subsonic Aircraft: Interim Assessment Report of the Advanced Subsonic Technology Program, and on the project's strategic plan for the next few years.
Panel members were selected to provide expertise in field observations, laboratory chemistry, atmospheric dynamics and modeling, aircraft engines, and climate. NASA's charge to the panel is to evaluate the appropriateness of the SASS research plan, to appraise the project-sponsored results relative to the current state of scientific knowledge, to identify key scientific uncertainties, and to suggest research activities likely to reduce those uncertainties. PAEAN has already published a series of three interim evaluations of AEAP: An Interim Review of the Subsonic Assessment Project and An Interim Assessment of AEAP's Emissions Characterization and Near-Field Interactions Elements in 1997, and An Interim Review of the AESA Project: Science and Progress in 1998. A final evaluation of AESA is currently under way. The primary audience for these
reports is the program managers and scientists affiliated with AEAP, although in some cases the topics discussed will likely be of interest to a wider audience.
The panel appreciates the dedication of its longtime study director Ellen Rice, as well as the support of its new staff officer Laurie Geller. We are also grateful to the researchers and managers who have provided briefings and reports to keep the panel apprised of the progress of SASS and related research programs.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Alan Epstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Thomas Graedel, Yale University
Matthew Hitchman, University of Wisconsin
Sonia Kreidenweis, Colorado State University
Shaw Liu, Georgia Institute of Technology
John Seinfeld, California Institute of Technology
While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authors and the NRC.
ALBERT J. KAEHN, JR.
FORMER PAEAN CHAIR