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SmaIl-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Interim Report 3: Evaluation of 1 995 County and School District Estimates for Title I Allocations Constance F. Citro and Graham Kalton, Editors Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas Committee on National Statistics Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1999

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the Na- tional Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The project that is the subject of this report is supported by Contract RN96131001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Education. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-9709489). Any opinions, findings, conclu- sions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not neces- sarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Box 285, Washington, D.C. 20055. Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). This report is also available on line at http://www.nap.edu. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06395-7 Printed in the United States of America. Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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PANEL ON ESTIMATES OF POVERTY FOR SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREAS GRAHAM KALTON (Chair), Westat, Rockville, Maryland DAVID M. BETSON, Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame NANCY E. DUNTON, Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri WAYNE A. FULLER, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University THOMAS B. JABINE, Consultant, Washington, D.C. SYLVIA T. JOHNSON, School of Education, Howard University THOMAS A. LOUIS, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota SALLY C. MORTON, RAND, Santa Monica, California JEFFREY S. PASSEL, Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. J.N.K. RAO, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University ALLEN L. SCHIRM, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. PAUL R. VOSS, Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin Madison JAMES H. WYCKOFF, Graduate School of Public Affairs, State University of New York, Albany ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Staff Officer MICHELE VER PLOEG, Research Associate MEYER ZITTER, Consultant TELISSIA M. THOMPSON, Senior Project Assistant . . .

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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1998-1999 JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair), Department of Information and Operations Management, University of Southern California JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University JULIE DAVANZO, RAND, Santa Monica, California WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University JOHN F. GEWEKE, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina RODERICK J.A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan THOMAS A. LOUIS, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Department of Economics, Yale University JANET L. NORWOOD, The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. EDWARD B. PERRIN, Department of Health Services, University of Washington PAUL R. ROSENBAUM, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO, Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIRON L. STRAF, Director ANDREW WHITE, Deputy Director V

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Acknowledgments The Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas wishes to thank the many people who contributed to the preparation of this, the panel's third interim report. We thank, first, the staff of the Census Bureau who prepared the state, county, and school district estimates of poor school-age children in 1995, many of whom also worked on the evaluations of those estimates: David Aultman, William Bell, Patrick Cardiff, Robert Fay, Robin Fisher, Matthew Kramer, Esther Miller, Ronald Prevost, Douglas Sater, Paul Siegel, Cotty Armstrong Smith, Alexander Strand, Jess Thompson, George Train, David Waddington, and Signe Wetrogan. We also thank the Census Bureau staff who facilitated the arrange- ments for the work: Cynthia Clark, Nancy Gordon, Charles Nelson, and Daniel Weinberg. Daniel Kasprzyk of the National Center for Education Statistics, who serves as project officer for the study for the U.S. Department of Education, was helpful as always in facilitating this phase of the panel's work. The panel also appreci- ates the continued help of other Department of Education staff-in particular, Sandy Brown, Kay Rigling, William Sonnenberg, and Stephanie Stullich-in pro- viding information and educating us about the Title I allocation process. I thank my panel colleagues for their continued commitment to the work of the panel and to its third interim report, which was prepared, like the first two reports, under a very demanding time schedule. I particularly thank James Wyckoff, who, with his student Frank Papa, evaluated the use of school lunch data in comparison with the Census Bureau's method for developing school v

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v! ACKNOWLEDGMENTS district estimates of poor school-age children in New York State; that work appears in the appendix. The panel was assisted by a very able staff. As always, Constance Citro did an outstanding job as the study director. She had primary responsibility for drafting this report, and without her exceptional writing skills and dedication, the report could not have been produced in the time available. Michael Cohen made important contributions to the evaluation of the models and to many sections of the report. Michele Ver Ploeg and James Sexton (a National Research Council summer intern) prepared tabulations for the panel of school lunch and other data. Meyer Zitter ably assisted the panel's working group on school district estimates. Telissia Thompson provided excellent administrative support for the study and for the preparation of the report. Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, improved the report through her fine technical editing. To all we are grateful. Our report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures ap- proved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this indepen- dent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institu- tion in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confi- dential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Johnny Blair, Survey Research Center, University of Maryland; James R. Chromy, Re- search Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, N.C.; Emerson J. Elliott, Na- tional Council for the Accreditation of Teacher Education, Washington, D.C.; Lyle V. Jones, L.L. Thurstone Psychometric Laboratory, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; Roderick J.A. Little, School of Public Health, University of Michigan; Lincoln E. Moses, Department of Biostatistics, Stanford University Medical Center (emeritus); William O'Hare, The Annie E. Casey Foundation, Baltimore, Md.; John W. Pratt, Graduate School of Business, Harvard University (emeritus); and Franklin D. Wilson, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison. While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution. Graham Kalton, Chair Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION Updated Estimates, 7 County Estimates, 7 School District Estimates, 8 Plan of the Report, 10 COUNTY ESTIMATES Estimation Procedure, 13 Step 1: County Model, 13 Step 2: State Model, 14 Step 3: Combining the County and State Estimates, 15 Differences Between 1995 and 1993 Estimation Procedures, 16 Population Estimates, 16 Puerto Rico, 17 Evaluation, 18 County Model Internal Evaluations, 19 County Model External Evaluations, 24 State Model Evaluation, 33 . . vat 1 5 11

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. . . vile 3 SCHOOE DISTRICT ESTIMATES School-Age Children in Poverty, 40 Issues in Estimating Poverty for School Districts, 40 Estimation Procedure, 43 Evaluations, 44 School Lunch Data, 53 Population Totals, 58 Estimation Procedures, 58 Evaluations, 59 Assessment, 61 Basic Grants, 64 Concentration Grants, 66 Study of Allocation Process, 74 4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TITLE I ALLOCATIONS FOR THE 1999-2000 SCHOOE YEAR Assessment of 1995 County Estimates, 76 Assessment of 1995 School District Estimates, 76 Use of Estimates for Allocations, 77 Reallocations for Small School Districts, 79 Recommendations, 79 Looking to the Future, 81 Special Case: Puerto Rico, 81 5 FUTURE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Schedule Considerations, 84 Short-Term Priorities, 85 County Estimates, 85 School District Estimates, 90 Longer Term Priorities, 92 State and County Models, 92 School Districts, 95 Documentation and Evaluation, 95 CONTENTS 39 75 83 APPENDIX: USE OF SCHOOE LUNCH DATA IN NEW YORK STATE FOR THE ESTIMATION OF SCHOOE-AGE CHILDREN IN POVERTY: AN ANALYSIS 97 James H. Wyckoff and Frank Papa REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF 115 119

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SmaIl-Area Estimates of School-Age ChiIcIren in Poverty

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