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SmaIl-Area Estimates of
School-Age Children in Poverty
Interim Report 3: Evaluation of 1 995
County and School District Estimates for
Title I Allocations
Constance F. Citro and Graham Kalton, Editors
Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas
Committee on National Statistics
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1999
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin-
guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal
government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National
Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the Na-
tional Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,
and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the
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secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
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I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
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determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered
jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf
are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
The project that is the subject of this report is supported by Contract RN96131001 between the
National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Education. Support of the work of the
Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant
from the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-9709489). Any opinions, findings, conclu-
sions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not neces-
sarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
Copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution
Avenue, N.W., Box 285, Washington, D.C. 20055. Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the
Washington Metropolitan Area). This report is also available on line at http://www.nap.edu.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-06395-7
Printed in the United States of America.
Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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PANEL ON ESTIMATES OF POVERTY FOR
SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREAS
GRAHAM KALTON (Chair), Westat, Rockville, Maryland
DAVID M. BETSON, Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame
NANCY E. DUNTON, Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri
WAYNE A. FULLER, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
THOMAS B. JABINE, Consultant, Washington, D.C.
SYLVIA T. JOHNSON, School of Education, Howard University
THOMAS A. LOUIS, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota
SALLY C. MORTON, RAND, Santa Monica, California
JEFFREY S. PASSEL, Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.
J.N.K. RAO, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University
ALLEN L. SCHIRM, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C.
PAUL R. VOSS, Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin
Madison
JAMES H. WYCKOFF, Graduate School of Public Affairs, State University of
New York, Albany
ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical
School
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Staff Officer
MICHELE VER PLOEG, Research Associate
MEYER ZITTER, Consultant
TELISSIA M. THOMPSON, Senior Project Assistant
. . .
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
1998-1999
JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair), Department of Information and Operations
Management, University of Southern California
JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University
JULIE DAVANZO, RAND, Santa Monica, California
WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
JOHN F. GEWEKE, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis
WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North
Carolina
RODERICK J.A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan
THOMAS A. LOUIS, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota
CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Department of Economics, Yale University
JANET L. NORWOOD, The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.
EDWARD B. PERRIN, Department of Health Services, University of
Washington
PAUL R. ROSENBAUM, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania
FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO, Division of Statistics, University of California,
Davis
RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology
MIRON L. STRAF, Director
ANDREW WHITE, Deputy Director
V
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Acknowledgments
The Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas wishes to
thank the many people who contributed to the preparation of this, the panel's
third interim report.
We thank, first, the staff of the Census Bureau who prepared the state,
county, and school district estimates of poor school-age children in 1995, many
of whom also worked on the evaluations of those estimates: David Aultman,
William Bell, Patrick Cardiff, Robert Fay, Robin Fisher, Matthew Kramer, Esther
Miller, Ronald Prevost, Douglas Sater, Paul Siegel, Cotty Armstrong Smith,
Alexander Strand, Jess Thompson, George Train, David Waddington, and Signe
Wetrogan. We also thank the Census Bureau staff who facilitated the arrange-
ments for the work: Cynthia Clark, Nancy Gordon, Charles Nelson, and Daniel
Weinberg.
Daniel Kasprzyk of the National Center for Education Statistics, who serves
as project officer for the study for the U.S. Department of Education, was helpful
as always in facilitating this phase of the panel's work. The panel also appreci-
ates the continued help of other Department of Education staff-in particular,
Sandy Brown, Kay Rigling, William Sonnenberg, and Stephanie Stullich-in pro-
viding information and educating us about the Title I allocation process.
I thank my panel colleagues for their continued commitment to the work of
the panel and to its third interim report, which was prepared, like the first two
reports, under a very demanding time schedule. I particularly thank James
Wyckoff, who, with his student Frank Papa, evaluated the use of school lunch
data in comparison with the Census Bureau's method for developing school
v
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v!
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
district estimates of poor school-age children in New York State; that work
appears in the appendix.
The panel was assisted by a very able staff. As always, Constance Citro did
an outstanding job as the study director. She had primary responsibility for
drafting this report, and without her exceptional writing skills and dedication, the
report could not have been produced in the time available. Michael Cohen made
important contributions to the evaluation of the models and to many sections of
the report. Michele Ver Ploeg and James Sexton (a National Research Council
summer intern) prepared tabulations for the panel of school lunch and other data.
Meyer Zitter ably assisted the panel's working group on school district estimates.
Telissia Thompson provided excellent administrative support for the study and
for the preparation of the report. Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports
of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, improved
the report through her fine technical editing. To all we are grateful.
Our report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures ap-
proved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this indepen-
dent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institu-
tion in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the
report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness
to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confi-
dential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the
following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Johnny
Blair, Survey Research Center, University of Maryland; James R. Chromy, Re-
search Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, N.C.; Emerson J. Elliott, Na-
tional Council for the Accreditation of Teacher Education, Washington, D.C.;
Lyle V. Jones, L.L. Thurstone Psychometric Laboratory, University of North
Carolina, Chapel Hill; Roderick J.A. Little, School of Public Health, University
of Michigan; Lincoln E. Moses, Department of Biostatistics, Stanford University
Medical Center (emeritus); William O'Hare, The Annie E. Casey Foundation,
Baltimore, Md.; John W. Pratt, Graduate School of Business, Harvard University
(emeritus); and Franklin D. Wilson, Department of Sociology, University of
Wisconsin-Madison.
While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and
suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this
report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.
Graham Kalton, Chair
Panel on Estimates of Poverty for
Small Geographic Areas
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 INTRODUCTION
Updated Estimates, 7
County Estimates, 7
School District Estimates, 8
Plan of the Report, 10
COUNTY ESTIMATES
Estimation Procedure, 13
Step 1: County Model, 13
Step 2: State Model, 14
Step 3: Combining the County and State Estimates, 15
Differences Between 1995 and 1993 Estimation Procedures, 16
Population Estimates, 16
Puerto Rico, 17
Evaluation, 18
County Model Internal Evaluations, 19
County Model External Evaluations, 24
State Model Evaluation, 33
. .
vat
1
5
11
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. . .
vile
3 SCHOOE DISTRICT ESTIMATES
School-Age Children in Poverty, 40
Issues in Estimating Poverty for School Districts, 40
Estimation Procedure, 43
Evaluations, 44
School Lunch Data, 53
Population Totals, 58
Estimation Procedures, 58
Evaluations, 59
Assessment, 61
Basic Grants, 64
Concentration Grants, 66
Study of Allocation Process, 74
4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TITLE I ALLOCATIONS FOR THE 1999-2000
SCHOOE YEAR
Assessment of 1995 County Estimates, 76
Assessment of 1995 School District Estimates, 76
Use of Estimates for Allocations, 77
Reallocations for Small School Districts, 79
Recommendations, 79
Looking to the Future, 81
Special Case: Puerto Rico, 81
5 FUTURE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
Schedule Considerations, 84
Short-Term Priorities, 85
County Estimates, 85
School District Estimates, 90
Longer Term Priorities, 92
State and County Models, 92
School Districts, 95
Documentation and Evaluation, 95
CONTENTS
39
75
83
APPENDIX: USE OF SCHOOE LUNCH DATA IN NEW YORK STATE FOR THE
ESTIMATION OF SCHOOE-AGE CHILDREN IN POVERTY: AN ANALYSIS 97
James H. Wyckoff and Frank Papa
REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF
115
119
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SmaIl-Area Estimates of
School-Age ChiIcIren in Poverty
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