The Role of Diffusion Processes in Fertility Change in Developing Countries

REPORT OF A WORKSHOP

Holly Reed, Rona Briere, and John Casterline, editors
Committee on Population
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council

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The Role of Diffusion Processes in Fertility Change in Developing Countries REPORT OF A WORKSHOP Holly Reed, Rona Briere, and John Casterline, editors Committee on Population Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, selfperpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This project was funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the U.S. Agency for International Development. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06478-3 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). This report is also available on line at http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Committee On Population JANE MENKEN (Chair), Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University JOHN BONGAARTS, The Population Council, New York DAVID A. LAM, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor LINDA G. MARTIN, RAND, Santa Monica, California MARK R. MONTGOMERY, The Population Council, New York, and Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook W. HENRY MOSLEY, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University ALBERTO PALLONI, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison JAMES P. SMITH, RAND, Santa Monica, California BETH J. SOLDO, Department of Demography, Georgetown University LINDA J. WAITE, Population Research Center, University of Chicago BARNEY COHEN, Director HOLLY REED, Research Associate ELIZABETH WALLACE, Project Assistant

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Workshop On The Social Processes Underlying Fertility Change In Developing Countries Presenters MEGAN BECKETT, Labor and Population Program, RAND, Santa Monica, California KATHLEEN CARLEY, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University ANTHONY CARTER, Department of Anthropology, University of Rochester JOHN CASTERLINE, The Population Council, New York JOHN CLELAND, Center for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine STEVEN DURLAUF, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison BARBARA ENTWISLE, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill DUFF GILLESPIE, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development JENNY GODLEY, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill NOREEN GOLDMAN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University DENNIS HODGSON, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Fairfield University ROBERT HORNIK, Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania DAVID KERTZER, Departments of Anthropology and History, Brown University RON LESTHAEGHE, Interuniversity Programme in Demography, Vrije Universiteit, Brussels, Belgium PETER MARSDEN, Department of Sociology, Harvard University KAREN OPPENHEIM MASON, Program on Population, East-West Center, Honolulu EMILY McANANY, Department of Communication, Santa Clara University MARK MONTGOMERY, The Population Council, New York, and State University of New York, Stony Brook ALBERTO PALLONI, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison JOSEPH POTTER, Population Research Center, University of Texas, Austin EDUARDO RIOS-NETO, CEDEPLAR, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil EVERETT M. ROGERS, Department of Communication and Journalism, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque

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STEVEN SINDING, Population Sciences Division, The Rockefeller Foundation, New York THOMAS VALENTE, Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University JAMES WALKER, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison SUSAN WATKINS, Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania Other Participants JENNIFER ADAMS, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development SONO AIBE, The David and Lucille Packard Foundation, Los Altos, California SIGRID ANDERSON, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development MARY ARENDS-KUENNIG, The Population Council, New York RUTH BERG, The Futures Group International, Washington, D.C. CAROLINE BLEDSOE, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University JOHN BONGAARTS, The Population Council, New York SANDRA BUFFINGTON, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development RANDY BULATAO, Consultant, Silver Spring, Maryland MARTHA M. CAMPBELL, The David and Lucille Packard Foundation, Los Altos, California PATRICK COLEMAN, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University ELIZABETH FOX, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development STEVEN GREEN, The Population Council, New York SARAH HARBISON, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development DOUGLAS HEISLER, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development ROY JACOBSTEIN, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development ELIHU KATZ, Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania LAWRENCE KINCAID, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University HANS-PETER KOHLER, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany CAROLYN MAKINSON, The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, New York PHYLLIS PIOTROW, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University WARREN ROBINSON, Economic Research Associates, Washington, D.C.

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JAMES SHELTON, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development JOSEPH SPEIDEL, The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Menlo Park, California JEFFREY SPIELER, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development ELLEN STARBIRD, Center for Population, Health, and Nutrition, U.S. Agency for International Development RICHARD SUZMAN, Office of Demography of Aging, National Institute on Aging, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services MICHAEL TEITELBAUM, The Alfred Sloan Foundation, New York Other Contributors RENATO ASSUNCAO, CEDEPLAR, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil ANDRE CAETANO, Population Research Center, University of Texas, Austin SUZANA CAVENAGHI, Population Research Center, University of Texas, Austin PAULA MIRANDA-RIBEIRO, CEDEPLAR, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil ANNE PEBLEY, Labor and Population Program, RAND, Santa Monica, California CAMILLE VANDERHOEFT, Interuniversity Programme in Demography, Vrije Universiteit, Brussels, Belgium Staff BARBARA BOYLE TORREY, Executive Director, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education FAITH MITCHELL, Director, Division on Social and Economic Studies BARNEY COHEN, Director, Committee on Population HOLLY REED, Research Associate, Committee on Population LATANYA JOHNSON, Senior Project Assistant, Committee on Population RONA BRIERE, Consultant, Committee on Population

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Preface This report summarizes presentations and discussions at the Workshop on the Social Processes Underlying Fertility Change in Developing Countries, organized by the Committee on Population of the National Research Council (NRC) in Washington, D.C., January 29-30, 1998. The workshop was funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the U.S. Agency for International Development. Fourteen papers were presented at the workshop; they represented both theoretical and empirical perspectives and shed new light on the role that diffusion processes may play in fertility transition. These papers served as the basis for the discussion that is summarized in this report. In addition to this summary, the papers themselves were bound in draft form and distributed to a limited audience in 1998. A selection of the papers will be edited and published as a separate volume. The committee is grateful to past and present members John Bongaarts, John Casterline, Mark Montgomery, and Alberto Palloni, who served on a subcommittee (chaired by John Casterline) that assumed responsibility for organizing this workshop. In addition, the committee thanks Steven Sinding, who attended one of the planning meetings and provided valuable advice as well as participating in the workshop. The staff at the National Research Council managed the workshop from start to finish and made it all possible. Barney Cohen, director of the committee, helped develop the framework for the workshop, coordinated the contributions of participants, and gave valuable comments on various drafts of this report. LaTanya Johnson, senior project assistant, organized logistical and travel arrangements. Rona Briere, consultant to the committee, produced the first draft of this

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report. Holly Reed, research associate, edited several subsequent drafts and worked with John Casterline to produce the final report. Finally, Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports for the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, skillfully edited the manuscript and guided it through the review process. We are also grateful to the following workshop participants and sponsors, who read the draft manuscript and shared valuable suggestions and comments that were incorporated into the final report: Caroline Bledsoe, Northwestern University; John Cleland, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; David Kertzer, Brown University; Ron Lesthaeghe, Vrije Universiteit, Brussels; Carolyn Makinson, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation; Karen Oppenheim Mason, East-West Center; Mark Montgomery, The Population Council and State University of New York, Stony Brook; Everett M. Rogers, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque; Steven Sinding, The Rockefeller Foundation; and Thomas Valente, Johns Hopkins University. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Ronald Freedman, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan (emeritus); Joshua R. Goldstein, Office of Population Research, Princeton University; Charles Hirschman, Department of Sociology, University of Washington; Geoffrey McNicoll, The Population Council, New York, New York; S. Philip Morgan, Sociology Department, Duke University; Ronald Rindfuss, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina; and Gary Sandefur, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin. Although the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. Most of all, of course, we are grateful to the dedicated participants in the workshop, whose ideas and comments are summarized here. We hope that this publication helps ensure that their work will continue to contribute to research on the processes underlying fertility change and to policy in the field of reproductive health and family planning. JANE MENKEN, CHAIR COMMITTEE ON POPULATION

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Contents     Introduction   1     Diffusion In The Population And Family Planning Context   5     Measuring Diffusion Effects   8     Channels Of Diffusion   10     Diffusion Versus Economic Development And Structural Change As Explanations Of Fertility Transitions   19     Public Policy Implications And Conclusions   23     References   25     Appendix Workshop Papers   29

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