• formally conducting such analyses to better estimate potentially changing flood frequency distributions and their uncertainty is needed. Historical and paleoclimate and hydrologic data as well as future model projections would need to be integrated in this framework. Efforts should be continued to develop more detailed, comprehensive and systematic documentation of all major and significant floods, as part of a national database on floods. These efforts need to tie in information on ocean and atmosphere circulation conditions to the information on floods.
  • (3)  

    A decision analytic framework that uses information as to the uncertainty of the flood frequency estimates explicitly in the analysis of the design level of flood protection is also needed. Dynamic and static risk analyses as discussed in Chapter 4 may be needed. Such a framework would consider the length of the record, climatic factors, the length of the planning period, an implicit long range climate forecast associated with this period, considerations of risk and estimate uncertainty, and a prescription of how the decisions could be periodically re-evaluated.



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