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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2000 Federal Science and Technology Budget

Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING

INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1999



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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2000 Federal Science and Technology Budget Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1999

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: This volume was produced as part of a project approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. It is a result of work done by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) as augmented, which has authorized its release to the public. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by COSEPUP and the Report Review Committee. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Under the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a working mandate that calls on it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of NAS. The National Academy of Engineering (NAE) was established in 1964, under the charter of NAS, as a parallel organization of distinguished engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of members, sharing with NAS its responsibilities for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of NAE. The Institute of Medicine (IOM) was established in 1970 by NAS to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to NAS in its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of IOM. The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) is a joint committee of NAS, NAE, and IOM. It includes members of the councils of all three bodies. Financial Support: The development of this report was supported by the National Research Council. Internet Access: This report is available on COSEPUP's World Wide Web site at http://www2.nas.edu/cosepup. International Standard Book Number 0-309-006487-2 Limited copies are available from: Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy National Academy of Sciences 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Or e-mail: cosepup@nas.edu Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW. Box 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS (Chair), Director, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ BRUCE M. ALBERTS,* President, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC ENRIQUETA C. BOND, President, The Burroughs Welcome Fund, Durham, NC PETER DIAMOND, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA GERALD DINNEEN,* Retired Vice President, Science and Technology, Honeywell, Inc., Edina, MN MILDRED S. DRESSELHAUS, Institute Professor of Electrical Engineering and Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA JAMES J. DUDERSTADT, President Emeritus and University Professor of Science and Engineering, Millennium Project, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI MARYE ANNE FOX, Chancellor, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC RALPH E. GOMORY, President, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York, NY RUBY P. HEARN, Senior Vice President, The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Princeton, NJ BRIGID L.M. HOGAN, Investigator, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and Hortense B. Ingram Professor, Department of Cell Biology, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN PHILIP W. MAJERUS, Professor of Medicine, Biochemistry, and Molecular Biophysics and Director, Division of Hematology-Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO SAMUEL PRESTON, Dean and Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography, School of Arts and Sciences, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA KENNETH I. SHINE,* President, Institute of Medicine, Washington, DC MORRIS TANENBAUM, Retired Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, AT&T, Short Hills. NJ IRVING L. WEISSMAN, Karele and Avice Beekhuis Professor of Cancer Biology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA SHEILA E. WIDNALL, Abby Rockefeller Mauze Professor and Institute Professor of Aeronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA *   Ex officio member

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WILLIAM JULIUS WILSON, Malcolm Wiener Professor, Center for Social Policy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA WILLIAM A. WULF,* President, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC RICHARD E. BISSELL, Executive Director DEBORAH D. STINE, Associate Director ANNE-MARIE MAZZA, Senior Program Officer and Study Director PETER HENDERSON, Program Officer BRETT E. WILLETTE, Research Associate MARION RAMSEY, Administrative Associate NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Editor

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COSEPUP Guidance Group JAMES J. DUDERSTADT, (chair) President Emeritus and University Professor of Science and Engineering, Millennium Project, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI PETER DIAMOND, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA MILDRED S. DRESSELHAUS, Institute Professor of Electrical Engineering and Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA MARYE ANNE FOX, Chancellor, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS, Director, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ ANITA JONES, University Professor of Computer Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA H. GUYFORD STEVER, Science Consultant, Gaithersburg, MD ANNE-MARIE MAZZA, Study Director PETER HENDERSON, Program Officer BRETT E. WILLETTE, Research Associate NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Editor

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Preface In 1995, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS)-National Academy of Engineering (NAE)-Institute of Medicine (IOM)-National Research Council (NRC) issued a report titled Allocating Federal Funds for Science and Technology. The report recommended development of a federal science and technology (FS&T) budget that Would reflect the federal investment in the creation of new knowledge and technologies and exclude such activities as testing and evaluation of new weapons systems. An NAS panel later issued a series of reports that assessed the FS&T budget. In 1998, the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP), a joint committee of NAS, NAE, and IOM, issued its first assessment of the FS&T budget. To avoid duplicate quantitative analysis of the budget with COSEPUP, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), in cooperation with the Academies, agreed in 1998 to add a quantitative analysis of the FS&T budget to its annual assessment. COSEPUP's assessment of the FS&T budget is now a part of the annual AAAS R&D report. This year's assessment is chapter 6 of AAAS's Intersociety Working Group report, AAAS Report XXIV: Research and Development FY 2000. The AAAS report provides a one-stop assessment of the research budget and is useful to those interested in our nation's investment in research. This report has been reviewed by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purposes of the independent review are to provide candid and critical comments that will assist COSEPUP in making its report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report

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meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Jack Gibbons, Mary Good, Christopher Hill, Stephen Kohashi, Kei Koizumi, John Mayo, Al Teich, and the report review coordinator, Gerry Dinneen. The production of this report was the result of the hard work of the committee as a whole and of the extra efforts of the Guidance Group chaired by James Duderstadt. The project was aided by the invaluable help of COSEPUP professional staff—Anne-Marie Mazza, study director; Peter Henderson, program officer; Brett Willette, research associate; and editor Norman Grossblatt. PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS, Chair Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy

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Contents     Highlights   1     The FY 2000 FS&T Budget   2     Health of the Nation's Research Portfolio   5     Support for Research and Development at Colleges and Universities   6     Information Technology for the 21st Century   7     Smaller R&D Agencies   8     Research and Experimentation Tax Credit   8     Conclusion   9     APPENDIXES     A   FS&T Tables   12 B   AAAS Table   14

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Figures and Tables Figures 1.   FY 2000 R&D, FS&T, and 21st Century Research Fund,   3 2.   FS&T Budget, FY 1994–FY 2000,   4 3.   Percentage of Total Federal Spending on Basic Research by Agency, FY 2000,   5 Tables 1.   Federal Obligations for Research and Development at Colleges and Universities,   7 2.   Information Technology for the 21st Century, by Agency and Category of Spending, FY 2000,   8