Hazards: Technology and Fairness (1986)

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CAUSALITY OF A GIVEN CANCER AFTER KNOWN RADIATION EXPOSURE 41 original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. In discussion of the PC approach, the term average person is used to indicate that in no case can one calculate a probability that applies strictly to the specific cancer and the specific individual. As noted, a probability is a population-derived statistic that applies strictly to the population(s) for which the value(s) was obtained by empirical observation. Thus, the probability applies only to the nonexistent statistically average individual. However, this situation is not unique to the PC. It applies to the RC, and to probabilities in accident statistics, life insurance, and other situations in which probabilities are estimated by observation of populations. It applies in many legal situations in which a judge or jury is asked to come to a decision, on the basis of the ''best available'' (nonquantitative) evidence, that the reality of some alleged scenario is, for example, "more probable than not" or "beyond reasonable doubt." The PC falls into the same category. Although it cannot be said that a correct decision has been made in each individual case in which the PC has been used, it does (1) constitute an objective and fair approach, (2) provide a higher probability of a correct decision than would guesswork or a lottery, and (3) ensure that, if the PC is used in a large number of cases, fairness and justice, to the degree possible, will have been served. The PC approach is particularly fair in light of the fact that, unlike most legal situations in which some individual or individuals almost always know whether or not the alleged scenario conforms to reality, this cannot be known by anyone in the situation for which the PC is used. It cannot because the situation addressed is truly trans- science. NOTES 1. A quantal response, as opposed to harm that increases continuously with the amount of physical insult, is "all-or-nothing" in nature: it is a functional change or failure that either occurs or does not occur in a biological system. Such responses are not usually spontaneously reversible and can be lethal. The quantal response concept was developed by Finney (1964). 2. Use of the word "dose" appears to be appropriate to describe the amount when the stochastically delivered harmful agent is a drug or chemical. If the agent is a microorganism or energy in some form, more appropriate and less confusing terms might be the size of the inoculum or of the physical insult, respectively. References Awa, A. A. 1975. A review of thirty years of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors, II. Biologic effects, chromosome aberrations in somatic cells. (Japanese) Journal of Radiation Research, Supplement 16:122–131. Bond, V. P. 1959. The medical effects of radiation. Pp. 117, 126, and 127 in Proceedings of the 

CAUSALITY OF A GIVEN CANCER AFTER KNOWN RADIATION EXPOSURE 42 original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. National Association of Claimants' Compensation Attorneys (NACCA), 13th Annual Conv., Miami Beach, Florida. Cincinnati, Ohio: W. H. Anderson. Bond, V. P. 1981a. The cancer risk attributable to radiation exposure: Some practical problems. Health Physics 40:108. Bond, V. P. 1981b. Testimony before the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources concerning the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act of 1981. 27 October. Bond, V. P. 1982a. The conceptual basis for evaluating risk from low-level radiation exposure. In Proceedings, 17th Annual Meeting of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. Issues in Setting Radiation Standards; Proceedings No. 3, 25–65. Bethesda, Md.: National Council on Radiation Protection. Bond, V. P. 1982b. Testimony before the Joint Hearings of the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources and the Committee on the Judiciary concerning the Atomic Bomb Fallout Compensation Act of 1982. Subcommittee on Agency Administration, 12 March. Bond, V. P. 1984. Stochastic basis for dose-response curves, RBE and temporal dependence . Pp. 387–402 in Radiation Carcinogenesis, Epidemiology and Biological Significance, J. D. Boice and J. F. Fraumeni, eds. New York: Raven Press. Bond, V. P., and L. F. Feinendegen. 1966. Intranuclear 3H thymidine: Dosimetric, radiobiological and radiation protection aspects. Health Physics 12:1007–1014. Bond, V. P., and M. N. Varma. 1983. A stochastic, weighted hit size theory of cellular radiobiological action. Pp. 423–438 in Radiation Protection, 8th Symposium on Microdosimetry, Jülich, Federal Republic of Germany, 27 September-1 October 1982, J. Booz and H. G. Ebert, eds. Luxembourg: Commission of European Communities. Bond, V. P., L. A. Schairer, and M. N. Varma. 1984a. The effect of combined chemical and radiation exposures on Tradescantia flower color mutation frequency. Environmental Mutagenesis 6:416–417. Abstract, Environmental Mutagen Society, 15th Annual Meeting, Montreal, 1984. Bond, V. P., L. A. Schairer, and M. N. Varma. 1984b. Somatic response of Tradescantia stamen hairs to combined chemical radiation exposure. Abstract, Radiation Research Society Meeting, Orlando, Florida, 1984. Cox, L. A. 1984. Probability of causation and the attributable proportion of risk. Risk Analysis 4:224–240. Emmerling-Thompson, M., and M. M. Nawrocky. 1980. Genetic basis for using Tradescantia clone 4430 as an environmental monitor of mutagens. Journal of Heredity 71:261. Fialkow, R, S. Gartler, and A. Yoshida. 1967. Clonal origin of chronic myelocytic leukemia in man. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 58:1468. Fialkow, P. J., R. Jacobson, and T. Papyannopoulou. 1977. Chronic myelocytic leukemia: Clonal origin in a stem cell common to the granulocyte, erythrocyte, platelet and moncite/ macrophage. American Journal of Medicine 63:125. Finney, D. J. 1964. Probit Analysis. 2d ed. New York: Cambridge University Press. Fry, R. J. M., R. Powers-Risius, E. L. Alpen, E. J. Ainsworth, R. L. Ullrich. 1983. High-LET radiation carcinogenesis. Advances in Space Research 3(8):241–248. Gould, M. N. 1984. Radiation initiation of carcinogensis in vivo: A rare or common cellular event. P. 347 in Radiation Carcinogenesis, Epidemiology and Biological Significance, J. D. Boice and J. F. Fraumeni, eds. New York: Raven Press. Gould, M. N., R. Jintle, J. Crowley, and K. Clifton. 1978. Reevaluation of the number of cells involved in neutron induction of mammary neoplasms. Cancer Research 38:189–192. Jablon, S. 1985. Testimony before the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources concerning the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act of 1981. Kellerer, A. M. 1976. Microdosimetry and its implications for the primary processes in radiation carcinogenesis. In Biology of Radiation Carcinogenesis, J. M. Yuhas, R. W. Tennant, and D. J. Regan, eds. New York: Raven Press. 

CAUSALITY OF A GIVEN CANCER AFTER KNOWN RADIATION EXPOSURE 43 original typesetting files. Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be About this PDF file: This new digital representation of the original work has been recomposed from XML files created from the original paper book, not from the retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. Land, L., L. F. Parada, and R. A. Weinberg. 1983. Cellular oncogenes and multistage carcinogenesis. Science 222:771–778. National Institutes of Health. 1984. Report of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Ad Hoc Working Group to Develop Radioepidemiological Tables. U.S. Department of Health. National Research Council. 1972. The Effects on Populations of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation. Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations. Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences. National Research Council. 1980. The Effects on Populations of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: 1980 . Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. National Research Council. 1984. Assigned Share for Radiation as a Cause for Cancer. Review of Radioepidemiological Tables Assigning Probabilities of Causation. Oversight Committee on Radioepidemiology Tables. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Nowell, P. C. 1967. The clonal evaluation of tumor cell populations. Science 194:23. Oftedal, P., M. Knut, and H. Torlief. 1968. On the probability of radiation being the cause of leukemia. British Journal of Radiology 41:711–712. Schaffer, W. G. 1984. Claims for injuries from occupational radiation exposures in the United States: Recent developments. Health Physics Society's Newsletter, Vol. 12, No. 12. Skarsgard, L. D., B. A. Kihlman, L. Parker, C. M. Puiara, and S. Richardson. 1967. Survival, chromosome abnormalities, and recovery in heavy ion-and x-irradiated mammalian cells. Radiation Research Development 7:208. Underbrink, A. G., and A. H. Sparrow. 1974. The influence of experimental endpoints, dose, dose rate, neutron energy, nitrogen ions, hypoxia, chromosome volume and ploidy level on RBE in Tradescantia stamen hairs and pollen . P. 185 in Proceedings of International Atomic Energy Agency Symposium, Biological Effects of Neutrons, Vienna. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). 1982. Ionizing Radiation: Sources and Biological Effects. Report to the General Assembly, United Nations, New York. Varma, M. N., and V. P. Bond. 1983. Empirical evaluation of cell critical volume dose vs. cell response function for pink mutations in Tradescantia. Pp. 439–540 in Radiation Protection, 8th Symposium on Microdosimetry, Jülich, Federal Republic of Germany, 27 September-1 October 1982, J. Booz and H. G. Ebert, eds. Luxembourg: Commission of European Communities. Vogelstein, B., E. R. Fearon, S. R. Hamilton, and A. P. Feinberg. 1985. Use of restriction fragment length polymorphisms to determine the clonal origin of human tumors. Science 727:642– 645.