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Series on Technology
and Social Priorities
NATIONAL ACADEMY
OF ENGINEERING
Hazards :
Technology
and Fairness
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D. C. 1986
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National Academy Press · 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW · Washington, DC 20418
Funds forthe National Academy of Engineering's Symposium Series on Technology and
Social Priorities are provided by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, Carnegie Corpora-
tion of New York, and the Academy's Technological Leadership Program. The views
expressed in this volume are those of the authors and are not presented as the views of the
Mellon Foundation, Carnegie Corporation, or the National Academy of Engineering.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Hazards: technology and fairness.
(Series on technology and social priorities)
Consists of papers based on the Symposium on Hazards:
Technology and Fairness, held June 3-4, 1985.
Includes bibliographies.
1. Technology assessment-Congresses. 2. Health
risk assessment-Congresses. 3. Risk-Congresses.
I. National Academy of Engineering. II. Symposium on
Hazards: Technology and Fairness (1985: Washington,
D.C.) III. Series.
T174.5.H39 1986 363.1 86-2412
Copyright ~ 1986 by the National Academy of Sciences
No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic
process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval
system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written
permission from the publisher, except for the purposes of official use by the U.S.
government.
ISBN 0-309-03644-5
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy Press was created by the National Academy of
Sciences to publish the reports issued by the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of
Medicine, and the National Research Council. This volume is published
under the auspices of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE).
The National Academy of Engineering is a private organization
established in 1964. It shares in the responsibility given the National
Academy of Sciences under a congressional charter granted in 1863 to
advise the federal government on questions of science and technology.
This collaboration is implemented primarily through the National
Research Council. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors
engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages
education and research, and recognizes distinguished engineers.
The President of the National Academy of Engineering is responsible
for the decision to publish an NAE manuscript through the National
Academy Press. In reviewing publications that include papers signed by
individuals, the President considers the competence, accuracy,
objectivity, and balance of the work as a whole. In reaching his decision,
the President is advised by such reviewers as he deems necessary on any
aspect of the material treated in the papers.
Publication of signed work signifies that it is judged a competent and
useful contribution worthy of public consideration, but it does not imply
endorsement of conclusions or recommendations by the NAE. The
interpretations and conclusions in such publications are those of the
authors and do not purport to represent the views of the council, officers,
or staff of the National Academy of Engineering.
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SYMPOSIUM ADVISORY COMMITTEE
Cochai'7nen
ROBERT w. KATES, Brown University
ALVIN M. WEINBERG, Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge
Associated Universities
Members
PETER DE JANOSI, Russell Sage Foundation
RONALD w. ESTABROOK, University of Texas Heals Science Center
HOWARD c. KUNREUTHER, University of Pennsylvania
RAYMOND c. LOEHR, University of Texas at Austin
MONTE c. THRODAHE, Clayton, Missouri
EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center
Staff
JESSE H. AUSUBEL, NAE Program Coordinator
KAREN B. EKEEMAN, NAE Fellow
PENELOPE GIBBS, Administrative Assistant
MEREDITH L. GOLDEN, NAE Fellow
H. DALE LANGFORD, NAE Editor
V
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Preface and Acknowledgments
The Symposium on Hazards: Technology and Fairness was convened by
the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) in cooperation with the Com-
mission on Life Sciences and the Environmental Studies Board of the
National Research Council, and was intended to bring together members of
academic, industrial, legal, and public-sector communities with expertise in
the management of technological hazards. This symposium, held on June
3-4, 1985, was the fourth of the NAE's Symposia on Technology and Social
Priorities. Symposium participants addressed issues relating to hazards that
arise from chronic, low-level exposures and to high-consequence hazards
that are estimated to have a low probability of occurrence. Workshops were
held during the second day of the symposium; participants in the workshops
attempted to identify emergent issues of hazard management and to expand
the range of potential solutions to uncertain technological risks. The papers
in this volume are based on the symposium. Versions ofthree ofthese papers
(those by Huber, Kates, and Weinberg) were also published in Issues in
Science and Technology (vol. 2, no. 1, Fall 19851.
Specific topics addressed by the authors fall into three general areas,
which make up the three major divisions of this volume. These topics are
(1) management of low-level or low-probability hazards when scientific
evidence of causation is, and is likely to remain, uncertain; (2) equitable
distribution of the costs and benefits of potentially hazardous technologies;
and (3) management of technological hazards in the face of conflicting
scientific, ethical, and constituency claims.
Many people contributed to the success of the symposium and to the
v
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PREF~CE~ND ~CKNO~LFDGMENTS
publication of this volume. I would like especially to thank cochairmen
Alvin M. Weinberg and Robert W. Kates and the other members of the
symposium advisor committee: Peter De Janosi, Ronald W. Estabrook,
Howard C. Kunreuther, Raymond C. Loehr, Monte C. Throdahl, and Edith
Brown Weiss. I would also like to thank Harold J. Corbett and James D.
Wilson ofthe Monsanto Company who hosted an exceptionally useful meet-
ing of the speakers and an examination of chemical plant facilities in St.
Louis in January 1985. Many people in the Academy complex played con-
structive roles, including Jesse H. Ausubel, Karen B. Ekelman, Meredith L.
Golden, H. Dale Langford, Myron F. Uman, Alvin G. Lazen, and Penelope
Gibbs.
ROBERT M. WHITE
President
National Academy of Engineering
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Contents
Introduction: Emerging issues in Hazard Management
Robert M. White
PartI. Uncertainty
Science and its Limits: The Regulator's Dilemma
Alvin M. Weinberg
Causality of a Given Cancer After Known Radiation
Exposure ..............................
Victor P! Bond
Dealing With Uncertainty About Risk in Risk
Management ......................
Chris G. Whipple
Scientists, Engineers, and the Burdens of Occupational
Exposure: The Case ofthe Lead Standard .
Ronald Bayer
Part 2. Equity and Compensation
Hypersusceptibility to Occupational Hazards
Eu11a gingham
. .
Elf
... 9
. . . . . . . . .
. 24
..... 44
60
79
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vIll
The Bhopalization of American Tort Law
Peter ~ Huber
Hazards Equity: A Perspective on the Compensation
System
Daniel S. Hoffinan
Hazardous Waste Facility Siting: Community, Firm, and
Governmental Perspectives .............
Roger E. Kasperson
Hazard Compensation and incentive Systems:
An Economic Perspective ......
Howard C. Kunreuther
Part 3. Managing Technological Hazards
CONTENTS
... 89
. 111
.118
145
Economic, Legal, and Practical Problems in Hazardous
Waste Cleanup and Management 167
Victoria J. Tschinke!
Focusing Pnvate-Sector Action on Public Hazards 185
John A. Klacsmann
Three Mile island and Bhopal: Lessons Learned and Not
Learned
John ~ Ahearne
Prologue by Karen B. Ekelman, 194
Managing Technological Hazards: Success, Strain
and Surprise
Robert ~ Hates
About the Authors
197
. . . . . . . . . .
..206
.221
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Hazards:
Technology
ant] Fairness
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