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Series on Technology and Social Priorities NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Hazards : Technology and Fairness NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D. C. 1986

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National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 Funds forthe National Academy of Engineering's Symposium Series on Technology and Social Priorities are provided by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, Carnegie Corpora- tion of New York, and the Academy's Technological Leadership Program. The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors and are not presented as the views of the Mellon Foundation, Carnegie Corporation, or the National Academy of Engineering. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Hazards: technology and fairness. (Series on technology and social priorities) Consists of papers based on the Symposium on Hazards: Technology and Fairness, held June 3-4, 1985. Includes bibliographies. 1. Technology assessment-Congresses. 2. Health risk assessment-Congresses. 3. Risk-Congresses. I. National Academy of Engineering. II. Symposium on Hazards: Technology and Fairness (1985: Washington, D.C.) III. Series. T174.5.H39 1986 363.1 86-2412 Copyright ~ 1986 by the National Academy of Sciences No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written permission from the publisher, except for the purposes of official use by the U.S. government. ISBN 0-309-03644-5 Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy Press was created by the National Academy of Sciences to publish the reports issued by the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council. This volume is published under the auspices of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE). The National Academy of Engineering is a private organization established in 1964. It shares in the responsibility given the National Academy of Sciences under a congressional charter granted in 1863 to advise the federal government on questions of science and technology. This collaboration is implemented primarily through the National Research Council. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes distinguished engineers. The President of the National Academy of Engineering is responsible for the decision to publish an NAE manuscript through the National Academy Press. In reviewing publications that include papers signed by individuals, the President considers the competence, accuracy, objectivity, and balance of the work as a whole. In reaching his decision, the President is advised by such reviewers as he deems necessary on any aspect of the material treated in the papers. Publication of signed work signifies that it is judged a competent and useful contribution worthy of public consideration, but it does not imply endorsement of conclusions or recommendations by the NAE. The interpretations and conclusions in such publications are those of the authors and do not purport to represent the views of the council, officers, or staff of the National Academy of Engineering.

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SYMPOSIUM ADVISORY COMMITTEE Cochai'7nen ROBERT w. KATES, Brown University ALVIN M. WEINBERG, Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities Members PETER DE JANOSI, Russell Sage Foundation RONALD w. ESTABROOK, University of Texas Heals Science Center HOWARD c. KUNREUTHER, University of Pennsylvania RAYMOND c. LOEHR, University of Texas at Austin MONTE c. THRODAHE, Clayton, Missouri EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center Staff JESSE H. AUSUBEL, NAE Program Coordinator KAREN B. EKEEMAN, NAE Fellow PENELOPE GIBBS, Administrative Assistant MEREDITH L. GOLDEN, NAE Fellow H. DALE LANGFORD, NAE Editor V

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Preface and Acknowledgments The Symposium on Hazards: Technology and Fairness was convened by the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) in cooperation with the Com- mission on Life Sciences and the Environmental Studies Board of the National Research Council, and was intended to bring together members of academic, industrial, legal, and public-sector communities with expertise in the management of technological hazards. This symposium, held on June 3-4, 1985, was the fourth of the NAE's Symposia on Technology and Social Priorities. Symposium participants addressed issues relating to hazards that arise from chronic, low-level exposures and to high-consequence hazards that are estimated to have a low probability of occurrence. Workshops were held during the second day of the symposium; participants in the workshops attempted to identify emergent issues of hazard management and to expand the range of potential solutions to uncertain technological risks. The papers in this volume are based on the symposium. Versions ofthree ofthese papers (those by Huber, Kates, and Weinberg) were also published in Issues in Science and Technology (vol. 2, no. 1, Fall 19851. Specific topics addressed by the authors fall into three general areas, which make up the three major divisions of this volume. These topics are (1) management of low-level or low-probability hazards when scientific evidence of causation is, and is likely to remain, uncertain; (2) equitable distribution of the costs and benefits of potentially hazardous technologies; and (3) management of technological hazards in the face of conflicting scientific, ethical, and constituency claims. Many people contributed to the success of the symposium and to the v

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PREF~CE~ND ~CKNO~LFDGMENTS publication of this volume. I would like especially to thank cochairmen Alvin M. Weinberg and Robert W. Kates and the other members of the symposium advisor committee: Peter De Janosi, Ronald W. Estabrook, Howard C. Kunreuther, Raymond C. Loehr, Monte C. Throdahl, and Edith Brown Weiss. I would also like to thank Harold J. Corbett and James D. Wilson ofthe Monsanto Company who hosted an exceptionally useful meet- ing of the speakers and an examination of chemical plant facilities in St. Louis in January 1985. Many people in the Academy complex played con- structive roles, including Jesse H. Ausubel, Karen B. Ekelman, Meredith L. Golden, H. Dale Langford, Myron F. Uman, Alvin G. Lazen, and Penelope Gibbs. ROBERT M. WHITE President National Academy of Engineering

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Contents Introduction: Emerging issues in Hazard Management Robert M. White PartI. Uncertainty Science and its Limits: The Regulator's Dilemma Alvin M. Weinberg Causality of a Given Cancer After Known Radiation Exposure .............................. Victor P! Bond Dealing With Uncertainty About Risk in Risk Management ...................... Chris G. Whipple Scientists, Engineers, and the Burdens of Occupational Exposure: The Case ofthe Lead Standard . Ronald Bayer Part 2. Equity and Compensation Hypersusceptibility to Occupational Hazards Eu11a gingham . . Elf ... 9 . . . . . . . . . . 24 ..... 44 60 79

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vIll The Bhopalization of American Tort Law Peter ~ Huber Hazards Equity: A Perspective on the Compensation System Daniel S. Hoffinan Hazardous Waste Facility Siting: Community, Firm, and Governmental Perspectives ............. Roger E. Kasperson Hazard Compensation and incentive Systems: An Economic Perspective ...... Howard C. Kunreuther Part 3. Managing Technological Hazards CONTENTS ... 89 . 111 .118 145 Economic, Legal, and Practical Problems in Hazardous Waste Cleanup and Management 167 Victoria J. Tschinke! Focusing Pnvate-Sector Action on Public Hazards 185 John A. Klacsmann Three Mile island and Bhopal: Lessons Learned and Not Learned John ~ Ahearne Prologue by Karen B. Ekelman, 194 Managing Technological Hazards: Success, Strain and Surprise Robert ~ Hates About the Authors 197 . . . . . . . . . . ..206 .221

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Hazards: Technology ant] Fairness

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