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SUMMARY Brazil experienced very rapid decline in fertility during the 1970s. Both the crude birth rate and more refined fertility measures such as the total fertility rate dropped by 25 to 30 percent during the decade; this represented a threefold acceleration in the pace of fertility decline over the previous decade. By 1980, Brazil's crude birth rate was close to 30 per 1,000, as compared to over 40 per 1,000 in the mid-1960s. Total fertility was close to 4.0, a decline of nearly two births per woman from the level of 5.8 births observed in the late 1960~. As shown in Figure 1, the decline was experienced in both rural and urban areas, as well as all of Brazil's major regions, including the Northeast, where fertility rates have traditionally been very high (see Figure 2~. In Sao Paulo and other southern states, fertility had declined starting in the l9SOs, but the pace accelerated after 1965. The objective of this report is twofold: (1) to examine this accelerated fertility decline in light of changes in the proximate determinants of fertility; {2) to relate these latter changes in turn to socioeconomic changes that might account for the accelerated decline. The available data on which this report is based are limited in their geographic representation, their t~me- liness for measuring change, and their coverage of relevant demographic and socioeconomic variable-, as well as their reliability in measuring the variables that are included. Despite these limitations, however, the avail- able evidence provides strong support for the following hypotheses: (1) that declining marital fertility was the main demographic component of the accelerated decline; (2) that the principal proximate determinant of this decline consisted of increased fertility control within 1

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2 10 9 8 _ 7 ~ U - - o - \ \ - 4 2 O ~ 950 \ \ Rural ~ Total I ~ Urban 1 . 1 t g60 1970 1980 YEAR FIGURE 1 Total Fertility Rates by Urban-Rural Residence, 1950-80: Brazil

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3 10 9 8 7 UJ ~ 6 a: I> 5 2 _ , _ 1 O . 1950 \ \ \ 1 . _ 1970 1 960 YEAR Norttt- ~* - rn Sew Min" Derail ~ Espinso A. Sanso Southem Sew Sso Paula - ~ Rio de Janeiro 1 980 FIGURE 2 Total Fertility Rates by Region, l950-BO Brazil :

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4 marriage (contraception, sterilization, and abortion), though ~t was not possible to specify precisely what the mix of these determinants was or how it may have changed; (3) that the decline in marital fertility can be attributed mainly to the spread of fertility control to lower-income regions and groups that had not participated in previous fertility declines, and (4) that these groups experienced socioeconomic changes (for example, increased educational attainment, increased ownership of such cons sumer durable goods as televisions, and increased female labor force participation) that were conducive to smaller family norms O This report is based mainly on three sources of infor- mation. The first consists of national-level data col- lected by the Brazilian census bureau (Fundacso Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. FIBGE), including the 1970 population census and a 1976 national sample survey (Pesquisa Nactonal par Amostra de Domicilios-- PNAD). Both included retrospective questions on fer- tility as well as on socioeconomic character istics . The second source is the state-level Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys tops} conducted during the late 1970s by Brazil's International Planned Parenthood aff iliate' BE - AM (Soc iedade Civil de Bem~st2.r Familiar), with the assistance of the DO S ~ Center for Disease Control O Finally ~ a source at the local level is the TRAP National Investigation of Human Reproduction (NIHR), which consists of in-depth contextual studies of nine communities representing dif- ferent types of socioeconomic structure in Brazil, as well as Small sable surveys of the reproductive life histories of women in those settings. When possible, other sources are used to provide supplemental informa- tion. The report is presented in two parts. The first uses the national- and state-level data to examine several hypotheses about how socioeconomic changes may have influenced the reproductive behavior of different groups in Brazil during the early 1970~. Tabular and multiple regression analyses of these data provide strong support for the argument that increased educational attainment of women contributed to the modernization of reproductive behavior, though the data do not provide enough informa- tion to specify precisely how this occurred. Nor do they permit as full a testing as one would desire of hypotheses about the way in which institutional forces and structural factors arising from claBB differences and economic pres- sures influenced reproductive patterns. The second part -

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of the report consists of a detailed examination of the NIHR local-level data, providing a more focused perspec- tive on Brazilian fertility patterns. data reveal a wide range of institutional forces that may have influenced fertility. However, the task of estab- lishing the links between these factors and patterns of individual reproductive behavior reported in the sample survey component of the NIHR is still to be completed. The major conclusions of the report are summarized below These contextual TEE PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY The available evidence indicates that changes in the distribution of women by marital status, either through changes in the mean age at marriage or through increases in the proportion of women remaining single, was not a major factor In Brazil's accelerated fertility decline dur ing the 1970s. This is a guarded conclusion because the data on marital status in Brazil are clouded by questions about their reliability, and about the effect of changes in reporting procedures. The most serious problem relates to consensual unions, particularly the extent to which true changes in the proportion of such unions and/or changes in their reporting affected measurement of the mean age at marriage. Because of doubts about mean age at marriage as an index of the effect of changes in marital status on fertility, an alternative measure--mean age at first birth--was also calculated. This measure indicated that changes in age at first birth (which is the main way that changes in age at marriage would affect fertility) did not contribute significantly to the accelerated fertility decline between 1970 and 1976. Thus the report concludes that declining marital fertility (with ~marital. including both formal and informal unions) was the main contributor to Brazil's fertility decline. Among the major proximate determinants of marital fertility, the report draws the following conclusions. . Breastfeedino: Postpartum amenorrhea resulting from extended breastfeeding has contributed to fertility reduction in some populations, however, there is no evidence to suggest that changes in brea~tfeeding patterns played a major role in Brazil's accelerated fertility decline. Indeed, because the practice of breastfeeding is very limited in Brazil, it is difficult

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6 J to fit models linking mean duration of breastfeeding and postpartum amenorrhea to Brazilian data. Contraception: Increased control of marital fertility played a major role in Brazil's accelerated fertility decline (see Figure 3). Since there were no nationally representative ~before. and ~after. data by which to measure changes in contraceptive use, this conclusion is based on fragments of ~circumstantial. evidence. This includes the ~tate-level Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys, as well as information on the production and distribution of contraceptives through public- and private sector institutions and commercial channels. The main unanswered question relates to the mix of fertility control means involved in this increase. The 1970s brought a dramatic increase in the production and distribution of pills in Brazil, and the surveys also report a high rate of surgical sterilization. Abortion: The main unknown in the mix of fertility control in Brazil is abortion. While survey data reveal comparatively few abortions, the practice is reportedly widespread. Assuming that abortion and contraception were substitutes in the mix of fertility control measures actually used ~ the report uses a range estimate for Me prevalence of abortion. The main flaw in this logic is that while most births in Brazil occurred Mung women in unions, a higher proportion of pregnancies may have been terminated by abortion among women who were not in unions. DETERMINANTS OF FE UTILITY DECLINE Brazil's accelerated fertility decline coincided with a period during which lower- and middle-income urban households were raising their consumption expectations. They were also beginning to realize these expectations through increased purchases of housing and other consumer durables, including televisions and automobiles, with most purchases made on the installment plan. Because of unequal treatment of wages and credit obligations in Brazil's indexing system, it was more difficult for families to keep up with payments, and even to purchase basic necessities during periods of high inflation. A working hypothesis is that thin pattern, combined with increased knowledge of and access to contraception, may have altered reproductive strategies and/or reduced

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7 10 5 O 1970 Fertil ity Effect of: :- : :: Lactation ~ educed Abortion ~ Contraception 'I - , . .1 1975 YEAR Marriage 980 FIGURE 3 Changes in Selected Reproductive Measures Based on 8Ongsarts' Model, 1910-80: Brazil family-size desires. While income was an important covariate of contraceptive use, survey evidence suggests that lower income women are also controlling fertility, particularly in the higher income southern region and in states that have established community-based family planning programs (see Figure 4). This explanation does

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8 75~ 6OI ~- Cal G , - 45 at o J at C) At Cal or Al 15 n ,. Rio Grande do Norte, 1980 Paula, 1978 - j/ Bahia, 1980 1_ ~ .1 < 1 ~ to Pernambuco, Paula 1980 Pioui, 1979 Pernambu Bahia Pisui 1-2 24 5+ TOTA L MULTIPLES Of MINIMUM SALARY FIGURE 4 Percent of Married Women Aged 15-44, Currently Using Cor2traception, by Household Income for Specified Years: Brazil not compete with more conventional explanations of fertility decline as part of the process of modern- ization, but is an extension incorporating other structural changes. Par t I of this repot t presents a three-step examina- tion of these hypotheses. The f irst step consisted of calculating fer till ty rates based on repot ts of children

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9 ever born and children born in the year prior to census and survey interviews for women classified by income and education levels. These calculations revealed that fertility decline was greatest between 1970 and 1976 among urban lower- and middle-income women, and that increases in educational attainment among these women was a potentially important contributor to that decline. The calculations also raised questions about the interpreta- tion of reports of recent births in the analysis of subgroup differentials, suggesting that the analysis be limited to data on children ever born. The second step consisted of cross tabulations (controlling for differences in educational attainment) of 1970 and 1976 data on children ever born with ques- tions relating to the hypotheses descr ibed above . Specif ic topics for the latter included female labor force participation, ownership of televisions, migration, and, for rural women, increases in the proletarianization of rural labor O The third step consisted of multiple regression analysis of the data on children ever born. Among the research questions addressed in this analysis were the following: (1) What measures in the available data files could be used as appropriate indices of the modernizing forces and economic pressures discussed above? (2) Bow could the relation between these measures and average parity be specified? Were the relationships linear? Should interactions be taken into account? (3) Could the analysis be pushed beyond explanation of differentials in average parity in 1970 and 1976 to an assessment of the sources of changes in fertility during that interval? In other words, did declines in average parity reflect changes in the composition of the population of married women according to modernizing characteristics, or changes in the parameters reflecting the impact of these variables on parity? The latter are likely to reflect structural changes; one of the goals of the analysis was to incorporate variables in the specif ication for which such changes would be indicative of the specific structural forces hypothesized above, that is, increased economic pressures on household resources. Most of the variation in average parity (CEB) that could be explained by multi~rariate regression analysis of data on individual married women from the Brazilian census and PNAD survey related to modernization variables, education, and average earnings. Most of the change that could be accounted for between 1970 and 1976 related to

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10 increases in educational attainment and earnings. An attempt to incorporate a variable measuring the relative economic position of urban households (GAP) indicated that there was a positive association between fertility and relative economic status; that is, CEB was higher on average for women whose husbands' current earnings exceeded the level that would be expected given their education and other characteristics. However, decomposi- tion of changes in CEO from 1970 to 1976 did not show that change in GAP contributed to fertility decline. These regression results do not suggest that increased modernization was the only reason for change. Changes in regression coefficients and in constant terms in the regression equations suggest that a variety of unmeasured factors could have contributed to unexplained variance. Measures that were available In the census and survey data file provide little insight into the nature of such changes--whether they were related to increased access to contraception through public or private channels, or to institutional changes associated with shifts in the Brazilian model of social and economic development. The nine local studies of the NIBR examined in Part lI cover a range of economic and social contexts, including Sao Jose dos Campos's (Sao Paulo State) concentrated industrial capitalistic mode of production, an area in Rio Grande do Sul where small owner-operated establish meets predominate, and traditional latifundia-dominated production in the Northeast. Institutional variations were found to be reflected in reproductive behavior in a number of ways, including wide differences in both fer- tility Petrels and Me proximate determinants of fertility. However, despite ma job dif ferences in fertility patterns among the different contexts' all but one (Parnaiba-Rural ire the Northeast3 experienced a signif icant fertility decline during the early 1970s. CE:BRAP's research has not progressed to the point of linking macrostructural differences and changes to recent fertility declines. However, the concern experience of the different contexts suggests that societal rather than local-level influences have contributed to the recent acceleration of fertility decline. Consensual unions represent a higher and apparently increasing proportion of unions in Recife and other Northeastern contexts; this fact may have contributed to the lower age at marriage and higher fertility observed in those contexts. However, as in Part I, the major determinant of fertility decline is identified as .

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11 declining marital fertility. Again as in Part I, the main proximate determinant of this decline in marital fertility was found to be increased use of contraception, particularly the more effective methods. This can in turn be related at the local level to shif ts in family income: as in Part I, it is concluded that there is a positive association between higher family income and decreased family size.