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SUMMARY
Brazil experienced very rapid decline in fertility during
the 1970s. Both the crude birth rate and more refined
fertility measures such as the total fertility rate
dropped by 25 to 30 percent during the decade; this
represented a threefold acceleration in the pace of
fertility decline over the previous decade. By 1980,
Brazil's crude birth rate was close to 30 per 1,000, as
compared to over 40 per 1,000 in the mid-1960s. Total
fertility was close to 4.0, a decline of nearly two
births per woman from the level of 5.8 births observed in
the late 1960~. As shown in Figure 1, the decline was
experienced in both rural and urban areas, as well as all
of Brazil's major regions, including the Northeast, where
fertility rates have traditionally been very high (see
Figure 2~. In Sao Paulo and other southern states,
fertility had declined starting in the l9SOs, but the
pace accelerated after 1965.
The objective of this report is twofold: (1) to
examine this accelerated fertility decline in light of
changes in the proximate determinants of fertility; {2)
to relate these latter changes in turn to socioeconomic
changes that might account for the accelerated decline.
The available data on which this report is based are
limited in their geographic representation, their t~me-
liness for measuring change, and their coverage of
relevant demographic and socioeconomic variable-, as well
as their reliability in measuring the variables that are
included. Despite these limitations, however, the avail-
able evidence provides strong support for the following
hypotheses: (1) that declining marital fertility was the
main demographic component of the accelerated decline;
(2) that the principal proximate determinant of this
decline consisted of increased fertility control within
1
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2
10
9
8
_
7
~ U
-
-
o
-
\
\
-
4
2
O
~ 950
\
\
Rural
~ Total
I ~ Urban
1 . 1
t g60 1970 1980
YEAR
FIGURE 1 Total Fertility Rates by Urban-Rural Residence,
1950-80: Brazil
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3
10
9
8
7
UJ
~ 6
a:
I>
5
2
_
, _
1
O .
1950
\
\
\
1 . _
1970
1 960
YEAR
Norttt-
~* - rn
Sew
Min"
Derail
~ Espinso
A. Sanso
Southem
Sew
Sso Paula
-
~ Rio de
Janeiro
1 980
FIGURE 2 Total Fertility Rates by Region, l950-BO
Brazil
:
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4
marriage (contraception, sterilization, and abortion),
though ~t was not possible to specify precisely what the
mix of these determinants was or how it may have
changed; (3) that the decline in marital fertility can be
attributed mainly to the spread of fertility control to
lower-income regions and groups that had not participated
in previous fertility declines, and (4) that these groups
experienced socioeconomic changes (for example, increased
educational attainment, increased ownership of such cons
sumer durable goods as televisions, and increased female
labor force participation) that were conducive to smaller
family norms O
This report is based mainly on three sources of infor-
mation. The first consists of national-level data col-
lected by the Brazilian census bureau (Fundacso Instituto
Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. FIBGE), including
the 1970 population census and a 1976 national sample
survey (Pesquisa Nactonal par Amostra de Domicilios--
PNAD). Both included retrospective questions on fer-
tility as well as on socioeconomic character istics . The
second source is the state-level Contraceptive Prevalence
Surveys tops} conducted during the late 1970s by Brazil's
International Planned Parenthood aff iliate' BE - AM (Soc
iedade Civil de Bem~st2.r Familiar), with the assistance
of the DO S ~ Center for Disease Control O Finally ~ a source
at the local level is the TRAP National Investigation
of Human Reproduction (NIHR), which consists of in-depth
contextual studies of nine communities representing dif-
ferent types of socioeconomic structure in Brazil, as
well as Small sable surveys of the reproductive life
histories of women in those settings. When possible,
other sources are used to provide supplemental informa-
tion.
The report is presented in two parts. The first uses
the national- and state-level data to examine several
hypotheses about how socioeconomic changes may have
influenced the reproductive behavior of different groups
in Brazil during the early 1970~. Tabular and multiple
regression analyses of these data provide strong support
for the argument that increased educational attainment of
women contributed to the modernization of reproductive
behavior, though the data do not provide enough informa-
tion to specify precisely how this occurred. Nor do they
permit as full a testing as one would desire of hypotheses
about the way in which institutional forces and structural
factors arising from claBB differences and economic pres-
sures influenced reproductive patterns. The second part
-
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of the report consists of a detailed examination of the
NIHR local-level data, providing a more focused perspec-
tive on Brazilian fertility patterns.
data reveal a wide range of institutional forces that may
have influenced fertility. However, the task of estab-
lishing the links between these factors and patterns of
individual reproductive behavior reported in the sample
survey component of the NIHR is still to be completed.
The major conclusions of the report are summarized below
These contextual
TEE PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY
The available evidence indicates that changes in the
distribution of women by marital status, either through
changes in the mean age at marriage or through increases
in the proportion of women remaining single, was not a
major factor In Brazil's accelerated fertility decline
dur ing the 1970s. This is a guarded conclusion because
the data on marital status in Brazil are clouded by
questions about their reliability, and about the effect
of changes in reporting procedures. The most serious
problem relates to consensual unions, particularly the
extent to which true changes in the proportion of such
unions and/or changes in their reporting affected
measurement of the mean age at marriage. Because of
doubts about mean age at marriage as an index of the
effect of changes in marital status on fertility, an
alternative measure--mean age at first birth--was also
calculated. This measure indicated that changes in age
at first birth (which is the main way that changes in age
at marriage would affect fertility) did not contribute
significantly to the accelerated fertility decline
between 1970 and 1976. Thus the report concludes that
declining marital fertility (with ~marital. including
both formal and informal unions) was the main contributor
to Brazil's fertility decline. Among the major proximate
determinants of marital fertility, the report draws the
following conclusions.
.
Breastfeedino: Postpartum amenorrhea resulting from
extended breastfeeding has contributed to fertility
reduction in some populations, however, there is no
evidence to suggest that changes in brea~tfeeding
patterns played a major role in Brazil's accelerated
fertility decline. Indeed, because the practice of
breastfeeding is very limited in Brazil, it is difficult
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6
J
to fit models linking mean duration of breastfeeding and
postpartum amenorrhea to Brazilian data.
Contraception: Increased control of marital fertility
played a major role in Brazil's accelerated fertility
decline (see Figure 3). Since there were no nationally
representative ~before. and ~after. data by which to
measure changes in contraceptive use, this conclusion is
based on fragments of ~circumstantial. evidence. This
includes the ~tate-level Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys,
as well as information on the production and distribution
of contraceptives through public- and private sector
institutions and commercial channels. The main unanswered
question relates to the mix of fertility control means
involved in this increase. The 1970s brought a dramatic
increase in the production and distribution of pills in
Brazil, and the surveys also report a high rate of
surgical sterilization.
Abortion: The main unknown in the mix of fertility
control in Brazil is abortion. While survey data reveal
comparatively few abortions, the practice is reportedly
widespread. Assuming that abortion and contraception
were substitutes in the mix of fertility control measures
actually used ~ the report uses a range estimate for Me
prevalence of abortion. The main flaw in this logic is
that while most births in Brazil occurred Mung women in
unions, a higher proportion of pregnancies may have been
terminated by abortion among women who were not in unions.
DETERMINANTS OF FE UTILITY DECLINE
Brazil's accelerated fertility decline coincided with a
period during which lower- and middle-income urban
households were raising their consumption expectations.
They were also beginning to realize these expectations
through increased purchases of housing and other consumer
durables, including televisions and automobiles, with
most purchases made on the installment plan. Because of
unequal treatment of wages and credit obligations in
Brazil's indexing system, it was more difficult for
families to keep up with payments, and even to purchase
basic necessities during periods of high inflation. A
working hypothesis is that thin pattern, combined with
increased knowledge of and access to contraception, may
have altered reproductive strategies and/or reduced
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7
10
5
O
1970
Fertil ity
Effect of:
:- : :: Lactation
~ educed
Abortion
~ Contraception
'I -
, . .1
1975
YEAR
Marriage
980
FIGURE 3 Changes in Selected Reproductive Measures Based
on 8Ongsarts' Model, 1910-80: Brazil
family-size desires. While income was an important
covariate of contraceptive use, survey evidence suggests
that lower income women are also controlling fertility,
particularly in the higher income southern region and in
states that have established community-based family
planning programs (see Figure 4). This explanation does
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8
75~
6OI
~-
Cal
G
, - 45
at
o
J
at
C)
At
Cal
or
Al
15
n
,. Rio Grande
do Norte, 1980
Paula,
1978
-
j/ Bahia, 1980
1_
~ .1
< 1
~ to
Pernambuco, Paula
1980
Pioui, 1979
· Pernambu
· Bahia
· Pisui
1-2 24 5+ TOTA L
MULTIPLES Of MINIMUM SALARY
FIGURE 4 Percent of Married Women Aged 15-44, Currently
Using Cor2traception, by Household Income for Specified
Years: Brazil
not compete with more conventional explanations of
fertility decline as part of the process of modern-
ization, but is an extension incorporating other
structural changes.
Par t I of this repot t presents a three-step examina-
tion of these hypotheses. The f irst step consisted of
calculating fer till ty rates based on repot ts of children
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9
ever born and children born in the year prior to census
and survey interviews for women classified by income and
education levels. These calculations revealed that
fertility decline was greatest between 1970 and 1976
among urban lower- and middle-income women, and that
increases in educational attainment among these women was
a potentially important contributor to that decline. The
calculations also raised questions about the interpreta-
tion of reports of recent births in the analysis of
subgroup differentials, suggesting that the analysis be
limited to data on children ever born.
The second step consisted of cross tabulations
(controlling for differences in educational attainment)
of 1970 and 1976 data on children ever born with ques-
tions relating to the hypotheses descr ibed above .
Specif ic topics for the latter included female labor
force participation, ownership of televisions, migration,
and, for rural women, increases in the proletarianization
of rural labor O
The third step consisted of multiple regression
analysis of the data on children ever born. Among the
research questions addressed in this analysis were the
following: (1) What measures in the available data files
could be used as appropriate indices of the modernizing
forces and economic pressures discussed above? (2) Bow
could the relation between these measures and average
parity be specified? Were the relationships linear?
Should interactions be taken into account? (3) Could the
analysis be pushed beyond explanation of differentials in
average parity in 1970 and 1976 to an assessment of the
sources of changes in fertility during that interval? In
other words, did declines in average parity reflect
changes in the composition of the population of married
women according to modernizing characteristics, or
changes in the parameters reflecting the impact of these
variables on parity? The latter are likely to reflect
structural changes; one of the goals of the analysis was
to incorporate variables in the specif ication for which
such changes would be indicative of the specific
structural forces hypothesized above, that is, increased
economic pressures on household resources.
Most of the variation in average parity (CEB) that
could be explained by multi~rariate regression analysis of
data on individual married women from the Brazilian
census and PNAD survey related to modernization variables,
education, and average earnings. Most of the change that
could be accounted for between 1970 and 1976 related to
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10
increases in educational attainment and earnings. An
attempt to incorporate a variable measuring the relative
economic position of urban households (GAP) indicated
that there was a positive association between fertility
and relative economic status; that is, CEB was higher on
average for women whose husbands' current earnings
exceeded the level that would be expected given their
education and other characteristics. However, decomposi-
tion of changes in CEO from 1970 to 1976 did not show
that change in GAP contributed to fertility decline.
These regression results do not suggest that increased
modernization was the only reason for change. Changes in
regression coefficients and in constant terms in the
regression equations suggest that a variety of unmeasured
factors could have contributed to unexplained variance.
Measures that were available In the census and survey
data file provide little insight into the nature of such
changes--whether they were related to increased access to
contraception through public or private channels, or to
institutional changes associated with shifts in the
Brazilian model of social and economic development.
The nine local studies of the NIBR examined in Part lI
cover a range of economic and social contexts, including
Sao Jose dos Campos's (Sao Paulo State) concentrated
industrial capitalistic mode of production, an area in
Rio Grande do Sul where small owner-operated establish
meets predominate, and traditional latifundia-dominated
production in the Northeast. Institutional variations
were found to be reflected in reproductive behavior in a
number of ways, including wide differences in both fer-
tility Petrels and Me proximate determinants of fertility.
However, despite ma job dif ferences in fertility patterns
among the different contexts' all but one (Parnaiba-Rural
ire the Northeast3 experienced a signif icant fertility
decline during the early 1970s. CE:BRAP's research has
not progressed to the point of linking macrostructural
differences and changes to recent fertility declines.
However, the concern experience of the different contexts
suggests that societal rather than local-level influences
have contributed to the recent acceleration of fertility
decline.
Consensual unions represent a higher and apparently
increasing proportion of unions in Recife and other
Northeastern contexts; this fact may have contributed to
the lower age at marriage and higher fertility observed
in those contexts. However, as in Part I, the major
determinant of fertility decline is identified as
.
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11
declining marital fertility. Again as in Part I, the
main proximate determinant of this decline in marital
fertility was found to be increased use of contraception,
particularly the more effective methods. This can in
turn be related at the local level to shif ts in family
income: as in Part I, it is concluded that there is a
positive association between higher family income and
decreased family size.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
marital fertility
