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INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND Brazil accounts for one-third of the population of Latin America, and nearly half that of South America. Its land area occupies 48 percent of the subcontinent, and is about equal in size to the United States, excluding Alaska. The population in 1980 was 120 million, more than double the 1950 total of 52 million. Starting in the late nineteenth century, Brazil experienced popula- tion growth rates in excess of 2 percent per annual with a peak period of nearly 3 percent during the 1950s. Since then, the rate of growth has declined, and now stands at about 2.2 percents Recent CEI`ADE population projections, which incorporate new information on declining growth rates, indicate a population of about 185 million for Brazil in the year 2aoo; this means that about oneothird of the increase in Latin America's population between now and the end of the century i s expected to occur in Brazil. Geography and Population Distribution Brazil' s geographic position, straddling the equator, has endowed it with both tropical and subtropical climates. Rainfall, latitude' and altitude contribute to the observed climatic conditions, ranging from very hot most of the year in the tropical rain forests of the Amazon region to chilly and damp during the Southern winters. A high plain ( the planalto) encompassing much of the central Brazilian land mass is ridged by several }ow mountain chains running in a generally southwest to northeast direction. The first of these chains Is the 12

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13 coastal escarpment that divides the relatively nar row coastal plain f rom the inter for . Border ing the planalto are two large basins that spread out over the terr itory fed by Brazil's main river systems: the Amazon and its tr ibutar ies , which cut a wide path as they flow from west to east just below the equator, and the Parana system, which flows from north to south to become the Plata River dividing Argentina and Uruguay. A wide band of lands, starting at the northeast coast and jutting into the interior in a southwesterly direction, is known as the sertao, a semiarid high plain that has suffered many severe droughts. -~- Overall population density is low--14 persons per square kilometer. However , this f igure is deceptive because of the high population density of the coastal regions and the very low density of the interior. This coastal concentration has decreased in recent decades because of internal migration both to rural areas and to cities on the agricultural frontier. Brazilian geographers have divided the country into five major regions for purposes of social and economic description (see map). The most populous of these regions is the Southeast, which accounts for 43 percent of the national total. Although it occupies only 11 percent of Brazil's land area, it includes the major urban-industrial centers, including Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and Belo Morizonte. This region dominates Brazil economically in all sectors, including agriculture; per capita income is half again as large as the national average. The second most populous region is the Northeast, with 29 percent of the total population and 18 percent of the land area. This is Brazil's poorest region, with a per capita income less than half the national average. Periodic droughts in its sertao region have contributed to its persistent rural poverty. A third region, the South, holds 16 percent of Brazil's population and is comparatively prosperous. It is endowed with good agricultural land, but has less industry than the Southeast. Droughts and frosts devastated large areas of the region during the 1970s, leading to substantial out-migration of rural families that had settled there during The l9SOs and 1960s. The two remaining regions, which constitute Brazil's vast interior, have experienced substantial in-migration during the last two decades. The Central-West, with 22 percent of the land area, increased its share of total population from 3 to 6 percent from 1950 to 1980. The new national capital, Brasilia, is located there. The

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15 North, or Amazon, region occupies the largest part of Brazil ' s land area ( 42 percent) and is the least populated region ( 5 percent of the total) . Although ambitious (and unrealistic) plans to resettle large numbers of poor farmers from the Northeast have been scaled down, hundreds of thousands of rural migrants from the South, Southeast, and Central-West regions flooded the territory (now a state) of Rondonia during the 1970s. Political and Economic History Brazil was first settled during the sixteenth century by the Portuguese who came in search of the gold that lured the Spanish conquistadores; however, they had to satisfy themselves with tropical agricultural production along the Northeastern coastal plain. A sequence of boom-bust export cycles punctuated the colonial period, beginning with brazilwood. Sugar production dominated the seven- teenth century. The plantation system on which it was based required many unskilled laborers, and with no indigenous population to exploit, the Portuguese turned to the African slave markets. During the four centuries of the Atlantic slave trade, Brazil accounted for 36 per- cent of the total slave imports. The colonial heritage of the sla~re-based plantation system left a mark on the Northeast that even today is an important feature of its cultural diversity and economic backwardness. During the eighteenth century, the Northeast drifted into economic stagnation; the center of gravity of the world sugar economy shifted to the Caribbean, while the Brazilian economy came to be dominated by gold and dia- monds, which were discovered in Minas Gerais and Goias. Slaves were also employed in mining. Conflicts with Portugal over taxes on gold production, combined with the weakening of Portuguese power during the Napoleonic Wars, led ho independence during the early nineteenth century. During the nineteenth century, a new export cycle emerged, based on coffee and dominated by the state of Sao Paula. Initial attempts to employ slave labor in coffee production proved unsatisfactory and slavery was eventually abolished. Paulista planters encouraged immigration , predominantly from Italy. These immigrants were able to secure better living conditions and a share of coffee profits; in fact, upwardly mobile immigrants and their offspring emerged as the urban industrial and entrepreneurial classes during Sao Paulo's industrializa- tion in the twentieth century.

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16 The two world wars and the Depression revealed the 1 iabilities of dependence on exports for economic well being . As a consequence, Brazil adopted an import- substituting industrialization strategy during the 1950s. Brazil was more successful than many developing countries in establishing domestic manufacturing; it had achieved relative independence in nondurable goods even before World War II, and moved rapidly toward autonomy in durables and capital goods thereat ter . lIoweYer, the success of import substitution also brought problems: increased regional inequality because of the concentra- tion of industrial activity in the Southeast; limited labor absorption because of the comparative capital intensity of imported manufacturing processes; increased dependence on foreign capital and petroleum (which Brazil has to import); and aggravated inequality in the dis- tribution of income between those who benefited from the manufacturing boom and the growing masses of unskilled workers who migrated to the cities hoping to find greater opportunities. Import substitution coincided with the period in which Brazil experienced its most rapid increase in population. Despite population growth rates of nearly 3 percent, per capit" income grew at an average annual rate of around S percent, to stand at a level of about S1,600 by the late 1970~. This put Brazil near the top of so-called middle- income developing countries. However, as noted above, this national average masks major inequity in the distri- bution of income, among regions as well as among indi- viduals and households. In 1972, the top 10 percent of households accounted for over 50 percent of household income, while the lowest 40 percent of households received only 7 percent. These differentials are echoed in other measures of welfare, such as infant mortality, access to public services, and housing conditions. While rapid population growth did not cause these problems, it surely aggravated them and does not make the task of overcoming them any easier. The postwar period also brought rapid urbanization, as well as concentration of the urban population in large cities. The urban population increased from 36 percent of the total population in 1950 to 67 percent in 1980. The rural population declined in absolute terms between 1970 and 1980. The state of Sao Paula (21 percent of Brazil's total population) is now 90 percent urban; the population of metropolitan Sao Paula was 12.6 million in 1980, more than half of the state population.

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17 Changes in Brazil' s social and economic structure, combined with increased inf ration and unemployment as the initial momentum of import substitution subsided, brought political turmoil and led to a military takeover in 1964. The military has traditionally played the role of arbiter in Brazilian politics, but their last intervention has been the most pervasive. Although there is currently a movement toward a return to civilian rule, the path is far from clear. Economic problems that have plagued Brazil since the midol970s and that dominate the current economic and political arena may play a key role. During the late 1960s, a combination of hard-handed military rule and civilian technical expertise restored stability to the Brazilian economy, with annual growth of industrial output exceeding 10 percent. One price for this stabil- ization program was deterioration of ache earning power of lower-income groups; another was increased foreign debt. Then came the energy crisis, which inflated the cost of almost everything that Brazil imported, including the oil on which the economy was heavily dependent. Increased borrowing has put Brazil at the top of the list of indebted countries with a debt of over S60 billion; the cost of managing this debt adds further to balance-of- payments and inflationary pressures. While social programs have not been a top priority of the military governments, they have not been neglected. During the past two decades, Brazil has invested in ambitious programs to increase access to public services and education, with a steady and sometimes Impressive progress. Enrollment of the primary school population increased from 54 percent in 1955 to 85 percent In 1974, and secondary enrollment ratios rose from 3.7 percent in 1960 to 16.6 percent in 1976. The government has also sponsored a large-scale adult literacy program, as well as other types of adult education. Coverage of the urban population by social insurance (which includes basic health services) increased from 43 percent in 1960 to 79 percent in 1975. A National Mousing Bank was established to f inance low~income housing and urban services. Access to piped water in urban areas increased from 16 percent in 1950 to 68 percent in 1976, with much of the increase coming after 1970 under a national water and sanitation program. The cost of these programs has put further strain on the government budget; payroll taxes were recently increased to ease this budget pressure, exacer- bating political tensions.

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~8 RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Population Trends At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the Brazilian population numbered about three and one-third million; two million were either slaves or former slaves who had been manumitted. By 1900, the population was nearly 18 million, with recent European immigrants representing an increasingly important group. Cultural and ethnic diver- s ity, an important dimension of the Brazilian social structure, has proved difficult to measure in standard ~ tatistics O Complex patterns of interracial Barr iage and self-declaration of race in four categor ies (white, black, yellow, and mixed) in Brazilian censuses led to such skepticism about the validity of the data that the ques tion was abandoned in 1970. Though the question was reintroduced in 1980, there is a major void in data on the ethnic aspects of Brazil' s recent demographic history. The demographic components of Brazil' s population increase since 1940 are summarized in Table 1, which present" estimates of crude birth and death rates and the rate of population growth. The table indicates an increase in average annual growth rate from 2.39 percent in the 1940s to 2.99 percent in the l950So This resulted from the combination of a virtually constant birth rate and a 30 percent decline in the death rate, along with a limited amount of immigration. The growth rate declined slightly during the 1960s, and more rapidly during the 1970~; the reason for this accelerated decline during the 1970s was a more rapid decline in the birth rate of about 17 percent from 1960-70 to 1970~80. TABLE 1 Components of Population Growth, 1940-80: Brazil Average Annual Rate Crude Crude Rate of of Population Birth Death Natural Per iod Increase Rate Rate Increase 1940-50 20 39 44 20 24 1950-60 2.99 43 14 29 1960-70 2.89 41 13 2B 1970-80 2.48 34 9 25 Sources: 1940-70 from Merrick and Graham (1979:Table III.5); 1910-80, see text.

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19 As with other features of Brazilian economic and social history, these national-leve' data mask important regional differentials. The pace of change in both mortality and fertility has var fed substantially between the more urbanized Southeast and the rest of Brazil, most str ik- ingly in comparison with the Northeast. Both the level and timing of such regional dif ferentials can be clar i- f fed by more ref ined measures of fertility and mortality, the total fertility rate, and the expectation of life at birth . The main sources of national- and regional-level data on fertility and mortality rates in Brazil are the decennial censuses and the national sample surrey program (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios--PNAD). Though Brazil started to collect vital statistics at the national level in 1974, coverage is still not adequate to permit assessment of national levels and trends (Altmann and Ferreira, 1979). However, starting with the 1940 census, Brazil began reporting the number of children ever born and the number of children surviving by age of mother. A question on the number of births in the year pr for to the interview was added in the 1970 census, and was continued in sample surreys taken in 197 2 through 197S. In 1976, this question was modified to specify the date of the last live birth, a procedure that was also used in the 1980 census (see Leite, 1981 :Table 1) . Brazilian demographers, and more recently the Panel on Brazil of the Committee on Population and Demography, National Academy of Sciences, have derived estimates of fertility and mortality from these data using indirect estimating techniques. The panel based its estimates on the census data for 1940-70 and the PNAD survey data thereafter. As the present report was being written, preliminary tabulations of the 1980 census became avail- able. These tabulations are based on an approximately one-percent sample of questionnaires processed in advance of the definitive tabulations, which are scheduled to appear on a state-by-state basis. Where possible, esti- mates based on these preliminary results are introduced. The Panel's fertility and mortality estimates for 1950-76 are reported in Tables 2 and 3, and detailed discussion of data sources and measurement techniques is presented in their report (National Academy of Sciences, 1979).

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20 National and Regional Trends in the Total Fertility Rate Table 2 presents data on national and regional trends in total fertility rates. The PNAD samples, which are the on, y source of regional data during the 1970-80 inter- censal interval, are based on a somewhat dif ferent reg tonal breakdown than the one descr ibed above becaus e of sampling requirements. There are seven PNAD reg ions: the Amazon and Central-Western regions are combined in a region referred to as Frontier States ( 7 ), though only their urban population is included in the PNAD surveys; Brasilia is a separate region ~ 6 ); Rio de Janeiso ( 1), Sao Paulo (2), and Micas Gerais/Espirito Santo (4) are broken out of the Southeastern group and reported as separate regions; and the Northeastern (5) and Southern (3) regions are maintained For consistency, the report of the Panel on Brazil regrouped census data into PHAD regions, which are also shown in Tables 2 and 3. At the national level, total fertility was nearly constant prior to 1960, and declined by about 6 percent dur ing the 1960s. There was a marked acceleration in fertility decline during the 1970-76 interval, when total fertility fell by 24 percent, although the indirect measures make it difficult to determine when the acceler- ation actually started. The report of the Parcel also TABLE: 2 Total Fertility Rates, 1950-80: Brazil and PNAD Regions . Region L950 1960 L970 1916 1980 1. Rio de Janeiro 4.42 4.34 3091 2092 2.65 2. Sao Paula 4.52 4.49 4.07 3c17 3.13 3. Southern States 5.96 S.75 5.48 4.20 3.47 4. Mirlas Gerais/ Espirita Santo 6.90 6.98 6031 4.54 4.11 5. Northeastern States 7. S2 7. SO 1. 58 6.30 S. 71 6. Brasilia -- ~ 5.52 3.83 3.63 7. Frontier States 7.14 1. 32 7.08 -- 5.07 Brazil: Total 6. 32 6.18 5. B3 4.44 4.10 Urban 4.68 ~ 4.61 3.48 3.47 Rural 1.70 ~ 7071 6.36 5.83 . Note: -- indicates that da" were not available. Sources: National Research Council (1983). Estimates for 1950 and 1960 are based on Carvalho's (1913) variant of the Brass method, which utilized the P/P ratio for women aged 20-29 as discussed in the text; eati~tes for 1570, 1976, and 1980 are based on National Academy of Sciences' variant of Me Brass method, which employs the average of P/F ratios for women aged 20-24 and 25-29.

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21 provides estimates of total fertility based on the own- children method which suggest that total fertility in 1969-70 was lower than 5.8. In all likelihood, the decline in the national total fertility rate accelerated in the late 1960s. This national trend once again masks major regional differentials. The transition to lower fertility was already well underway in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo during the 1950s, with total fertility nearly 2 children per woman lower than the national average by 19700 A more gradual decline was underway in the Southern states and in Minas Gerais/Espirito Santo. In contrast, fertil- ity in the Northeast and in the Frontier states was high, possibly increasing, before 1970. Regional differentials increased during the 1950-70 period, but declines in the Southeast were not great enough to have ~ significant impact on the national trend. In the rural-urban break- down, there was little change from 1950 to 1970 in either; this suggests that the limited national decline resulted in large part from the increased weight of the urban population in the total. The 1970-76 per iod brought accelerated declines In all regions. In the Southern and Southeastern regions, rates fell by 22-28 percent, with the greatest decline occurring in region (4) (Mines Gerais/Espir~to Santa). While the decline In the Northeast was less--17 percent--it signaled an important increase in the spread of accelerated fer- tility decline. At the same tome, the Northeast-Southeast differential increased. Since rates of decline in the Southeastern states have reached comparatively low levels, continuation of the national trend will depend to a large extent on the pace at which Northeastern states catch upe Estimates based on preliminary tabulations of the 1980 census indicate that the trend observed for the 1970076 period continued during 1976-80, though at a slower pace. The 1980 total fertility rate for Brazil, 4.11, is 7.7 percent less than the 4.44 recorded in 1976 and 29.7 percent less than the 1970 rate of 5.83. Total fertility in the Southern region declined most (17.7 percent) during 1976-80, making this the region with the largest overall decline (36.7 percent) over the decade e Region ( 4) (Mines Gerais/Espirito Santo) ranked second in 1976-80, with 9 . ~ percent, and alas' second for the decade, with 34.9 percent. It is significant that the Northeast, which ranked last during the 1970-76 interval, was third in 1976-80 with a 9.4 percent decline, since this suggests that the spread of fertility decline to the

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22 Northeast has continued and even accelerated. For the decade, this put the Northeast just ahead of sac Paulo, which had a very small decline ( 1. 3 percent ) dur ing 1976-80 and ranked last for the decade with 23.1 percent. Both Rio de Janeiro and the Frontier states were within a point or two of the national average, suggesting that omission of rural areas of the Frontier from the 1976 results probably did not bias the rate reported for Brazil at that date. A surprising feature of the 1980 results is that they indicate that ferti] itv decline during the 1976080 Derived was limited to rural areas; total fertility for urban areas was practically unchanged over that interval O Thi s _ ~ raises a number or questions, to wnlan the limited data published in the preliminary tabulations provide very few answers. One of these questions relates to the reliabil- ity of the sample frame on which the 1976 survey was based. It may be that the ~Brazil" sampled in the 1976 survey underrepresented groups that experienced slower fertility decline, leading to an overstatement of the decline from 1910 to 1976 and an understatement of the decline from 1976 to 1980. If this was not the case, there is an even more interesting question of why urban fertility decline accelerated (to 24.5 percent) during the early 1970s and dropped to zero at the end of the decade. Was there a baby .boomlet. during the late 1970s? Clearly, we need a thoroughgoing assessment of the representativeness of the PNAD surveys, as well as a comparison of the advanced tabulations against the def into ire 1980 census results. Although both of these tasks run well beyond the scope of this report, they have major implications for the present analysis of trends in the 1970s, which relies heavily on data from the 1976 survey. Expectation of Life at Birth Table 3 presents estimates of national and reg tonal trends in the expectation of life at birth. In contrast with total fertility, there is a substantial increase (26 percent) in life expectancy at the national level. There are also important regional differentials, with the North- east lagging behind the rest of the country by about 10 years of life expectancy; using the ratio of Sao Paulo to the Northeast as an index, the relative dif ference was about 27 percent. While all regions experienced increased

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23 TABLE 3 Expectation of Life at Birth, 1950-76: Brazil and PNAD Reg ions Region 1950 1960 1970 1976 1. Rio de Janeiro 48.7 60.3 60.3 68.5 2. Sao Paulo 49.2 60.3 61.6 6701 3. Southern States 51.5 61.2 62~8 66.5 4. Minas Gerais/ Espirito Santo 46~9 5502 5804 6500 5. Northeastern States 38.5 410 6 48 0 3 520 6 6 . Brasilia ~ 58.0 67 0 4 7 . Frontier States 47 0 8 S6.9 59.-7 -a Brazil: Total 4407 5204 5603 6101 Urban 43 0 8 -- 560 6 610 6 Rural 45.1 -- 56.0 57.5 - Note: -- indicates that data were not available. Source: National Research Council (1983). life expectancy during the 1950-70 interval, this pattern of regional dif f erentials remained constant. The pace of improvement in life expectancy increased during 1970-76. At the national level, it increased by 5 years in a 6-year per iod, compared to a 12-year increase over the previous 20 years. Percentage increases in Sao Paulo and the Northeast were about equal (9 percent), but Rio de Janeiro increased by nearly 14 percent. The pat- tern of rural-urban differentials shifted from a slight advantage for rural areas in 1950 to a slight advantage for urban areas in 1970, and a widening spread between urban and rural areas between 1970 and 1976. Income Class Differences in Fertility and Mortality Socioeconomic differences in fertility and mortality are another important dimension of recent Brazilian demo- graphic trends, though there are fewer data with which to document them. Working with special tabulations of the 1970 census, Carvalho and Paiva (1976) reported a differ- ential of over 4 children per woman in comparing total fertility rates for high- and low-income families. Their results are sugar ized in the top half of Table 4. For Brazil, total fertility in the 1-150 Crusiero per month

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24 TABLE 4 Income Class Differences in Total Fertility Rates and the Expectation of Life at Birth, 1970: Brazil and Selected States Average Monthly Household Income (cruzeiros) Region Total Fertility Rates 1-150 151-300 301-500 500+ Central Northeasta 8. S5 8.15 6.28 3. 95 Minas Gerais/Espir ito Santo 8. 03 8.50 7.27 4 O 62 Rio de Janeiro 6.23 S.43 4O40 2.71 Sao Paulo 5.93 5. 3S 4 O 50 2.93 Santa Catarina/Rio Grande do Sul 6 O 08 5. 79 4 .97 3 . 25 Brazil 7.54 6.72 5.37 3.28 Urban 7.03 5O95 4.84 3.10 Rural ?.81 7.99 7.70 S.86 Expectation of Life at Birth Central Northeasta 43.8 46.1 50.3 54. 4 Minas Gerais/Bapizito Santa 53~ 8 55.4 58.6 620 3 Ric, de Janeiro 54 e 1 54 . 8 57 0 6 62 0 1 Sao Paulo 54.7 5601 58.7 6309 Santa Catarina/Rio Grande do Sul 60.5 61.2 6304 66.9 Brasil 49.9 54.5 57.6 620 0 Urban 46.0 53. ~ 57. 6 620 2 Rural 51. 4 55.9 57. 6 60 0 0 aCeara, Rio Grande do Norte, Parnaiba, Perna=~uco (including Fernando de NoronhaI, and Alagoas. Sources: Total fertility rates from Carvalho and Paive (1976); expectation of life at birth from Carvalho and Wood (1978). group was 7.54, compared to 3.28 for women in the 501 Cruxiero and over group. Their data also reveal rural-urban and regional differentials within income classes: rural-urban differences increase with income, from less than one child to nearly tree children; in contrast, regional differences narrow fusing the Central Northeast and Sao Paulo as illustrative cases) from 2.6 to 1.1 children.

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25 Equally dramatic mortality differentials were found. Using the same tabulations, Carvalho and Wood (1978) noted a striking 20-year differential between the life expectancy of low-income families in the Central North- east and that of high-income families in Sac Paula, and an even greater difference when the Northeast was com- pared to the Southern states of Santa Catar ina and Rio Grande do Sul. Their results, summarized in the bottom half of Table 4, also suggest that for low-incoTee houses holds, life expectancy was higher in rural than in urban areas. However, caution is required in interpreting this difference since the income figures do not include income in kind, which was higher in rural areas; thus the true level of living among these groups may have been under- stated. In contrast to the fertility differentials, regional differentials in mortality were maintained at about 10 years as income increased, while rural-urban differences narrowed. Both sets of differentials high- light the importance of underlying socioeconomic variables in the regional differentials observed during the 1950-70 period; attention to changes in these variables will therefore be important in explaining the acceleration in Brazil's fertility decline after 1970. PURPOSE AND STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT What changes could account for the accelerated fertility decline in Brazil since 1970? The evidence presented thus far suggests that a major factor was the spread of fertility decline after 1970 to new regions and socio economic groups, together with continued decline among those already affected. The objective of the present report is to examine this acceleration in greater detail. The discussion therefore focuses on some specific ques- tions about what may have happened in the post-1970 per iod; it is not intended to be an exhaustive study of longer-term trends and differentials. As noted above, the main sources of national-level data used here are the public use sample of the 1970 census of population and the 1976 PNAD national household survey. Both of these sources provide information on such socioeconomic characteristics as marital status, migration, rural-urban residence, income, and education ; they also provide the data on births and surviving children needed to make indirect estimates of fertility and mortality. They do not include questions on contra-

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26 ception and other proximate variables, nor are other natzonal-level survey data on these variables available. State-level data are found in reports of the Contracep~ tive Prevalence Surveys (CPS, conducted by Brazil 'S International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) affiliate, Sociedade Civil Bem-Estar Familiar no Brasil (BEMFAM), with the cooperation of the U.S. Center for Disease Control; six such surveys were available when the report was prepared tSao Paulo, Pisui, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Paraiba, and Bahia). Local case study data on the proximate variables were assembled for the Centro Brasileiro de Analise e Planejament (REWRAP) National Investigation on Began Reproduction (NIHR), which is examined in detail in Part II. This study is organized as follows. Following the summary, Part I concentrates primarily on national-level data. Chapter 1 uses national census and survey data on fertility and nuptiality, together with CPS state-level data on contraception, abortion, and breastfeeding, to decompose recant fertility declines into the proximate determinants of fertility; this analysis is based on the standardization approach to decomposition of changes an the national level. In Chapter 2, national data are used to identify the level and amount of change in socio economic fertility differentials from 1970 to 1976. Chap- ter 3 examines hypotheses about links between changes in the prox ~ te determinants and socioeconomic conditions in Brazil during the early 1970s, as well as national- level empirical evidence relating to these hypotheses. Chapter 4 uses multivariate regression analysis to clarify links between changing socioeconomic conditions and changes in average parity, with reference to the analytical questions raised in the previous chapter. Although Part I makes some reference to relevant local-level HIRE findings, its primary focus, as noted above, is at the national level. Part II of this report focuses specifically on the NIHR to provide a more con- centrated analysis of Brazilian fertility. Chapter 5 describes the purpose and methodology of the NIGER. Chapter 6 summarizer fertility levels and trends for the contexts studied, which are described in detail in the Appendix. Chapter 7 presents a discussion of local trends in nuptiality, including variations in union to pe and age at marriage. Chapter 8 examines data related to declining marital fertility, while Chapters 9 and 10 analyze the role of the proximate determinants and socioeconomic variables ~ specifically family income,

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27 respectively, in that decline. Finally, Chapter 11 presents some conclusions about Brazil's accelerated fertility decline based on the NIHR data. It is hoped that together, the broader and more focused perspectives offered in this report will provide a balanced understanding of Brazil's recent fertility trends.

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