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CHAPTER 6 THE TOTAL FERTI LI ~ lo: AWLS AD TRENDS Before proceeding with an analysis of the total fertility rate based on NIHR data, it is worth clarifying some points with regard to these data. The NIBR surveys were performed with the aim of covering 400 households in each area except Sao Jose dos Campos and Recife, where 800 households per area were included. As mentioned above, the information unit was any adult. However, for purposes of the following analysis, the unit will be taken as a woman, and some comments should be made in this con- nection. First, it is worth noting that the information on a worn ' ~ reproductive history {contained in the life- history module) was given by the woman when she was the selected adult, or by her mate when he was selected, whether his wife was allure or not. Thus, the samples do not refer only to cohorts of women who survived until the survey, and it is not necessary to make the usual assump- tion that the fertility experience of women who did not survive is faithfully represented by the experience of those who did. With this in mind, whenever the rep~oduc- tive history of an adult is considered, the woman may have been in any one of the following situations: 1. alive and single 2. alive and married 3. alive and separated 4. alive and widowed 5. dead and married while alive Situations 1, 3, and 4 could only occur if the woman was the informant; situation 5 could only occur if a man was the informant; and situation 2 could occur in either case. Second, the fact that the investigation also included single women avoided the problem of completeness involved 151

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152 in leaving out all childbearing experienced by women who declared they were single at the time of the survey. At the same time, it meant that, in general, the premarital experience of women ever married at the time of the survey was not eliminated. Third, it should be stressed that in this investigation there was no cut-of$ age for asking questions on fertility history. Thus the data were not truncated, as usually happens when histories are not obtained for women over age 50. This means that fertility rates could be cal- culated for almost all age groups and for a distant past, although it must be remembered that memory problems man introduce certain difficulties. The total fertility rates (Table 51) were established for three different points in time: 1965, 1970, and 1975. For each of these periods, the rates were calculated on the basis of the total number of women alive at that time, regardless of marital status. Thus if a woman was alive, for instance, in 1965, she was not necessarily alive in 1970 or after. Moreover, when the informant (Ego) was a husband separated from his wife during the year for which the fertility rate was calculated, this case was el~mi- nated, since there was no way of knowing that woman's situation with regard to ache number of children between the year of separation and the year of reference for cal- culating fertility. A further clarification is required concerning the dates of the surveys. For seven out of the nine areas, the surveys were conducted in 1976 Or 1977; thus, the data for births in 1975 present no prob- lems as to the cat endar year. However, in Sao Jose dos Campos, the survey was performed from May to December 1975, and in Santa Crud do Su}-Urban from November 1975 to July 1976. ~ correction was thus necessary for these two areas since the women in both were not exposed for the whole year. For Sao Jose dos C ~ os, the number of births in 197S was multiplied by the factor 1.53G, and for Santa Cruz do Sul-Urban by 1.04S. The first observation to be made when analyzing Table 51 is that there is some consistency between these results and those of Table 2 from Part ~ of this reports Indeed' the 1970 rate for Sao Jone (4.83) was consistent with that for Sao Paulo State (4.07), especially given that more than 70 percent of the latter's population was urban in 1970. Similarly, for Parnaiba-Rural, Parnaiba-Urban, and Recife, located in Northeast Brazil, total fertility as reported in Table 51 varied from 8.42 to S.45 in 1970; the Table 2 value for the Northeast (7.58) is within this it, , ~ ,

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153 TABLE 51 Total Fertility Rates, Nine Contexts, 1965, 1970, and 1975: Brazil Total Fertility Bate Percent Decline 1970. 19?s. 1975~. Context 1965 1970 1975 1965 1970 1965 Parnalba-Rura1 `82;l)2 ~2S3)2 (258) S.94 +1202S +SeS8 Sso Jose dos Cantos (4i3) (534) (S92) 17.20 16.56 30.87 Recife (405) (503)8 (45;13 1.28 8.92 10.09 Concsiceo do Araguata (201)8 (2;2)6 (36i49)6 +1.11 11.02 10.03 Parnaiba~rban (2il) (2;2)6 (6289) 5.48 21.S2 25.82 Sertaozinho (2i7) (2;6)7 l3;6s)8 1.22 35.10 3S.89 Cachoeiro (20864)8 (261~8 (230917 2S.64 14.66 36.~d Santa Cruz-~ral (2il) (2;3} (2;8) 16.62 2S.53 37.91 Sen" Cruz~Ur~ban (2;3) (2;1) 2;92 41.61 +14.96 32.87 Notes N~re in p"entbe - s are number of won. range. It should also be noted that in 1970, 58 percent of the northeastern population lived in rural areas. Finally, for Concaicso do Araquaia, a frontier area, Table 51 shows a total fertility rate of 7.26 for the same per- iod; this is very similar to the Table 2 rate for Frontier States of 7eG8. There was a very large variation- in fertility from one context to another, and thin variation increased over time. In 196S, the maximum variability was about 4 chil- dren per woman, rising to 5.4 in 1970 and 6.0 In 197S. The extreme cases were always Santa Cruz do Sul-Urban, with the lowest total fertility rate, and Parnaiba-Rural, with the highest. Figure 5 (on page 37) highlights the enormous differences in fertility between these two

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154 contexts: the reproductive pattern of Santa Cruz-Urban is more like that of a European country with low fertility, while that of Parnaiba-~ural resembles a natural-fertility pattern. ~ further point, which also confirms the theoretical approach of the NIHR, is that the rural contexts do not necessarily have higher fertility rates than the urban contexts. In analyzing the trends for each context, it can be seen that from 1965 to 1970, with the exception of Con- ceicao do Araguaia, all areas show a decline. This decline was most marked in Santa Cruz-Urban (42 percent), Cachoeiro (26 percent), Sao Jose dos Campos (17 percent), and Santa Cruz-Rural (17 percent); Parnaiba-Urban and oRural had a slight decline of around 5 to 6 percent; and Recife and Sertaozinho had a fall of only 1.2 percent. For 1970 to 1975, the decline was much steeper, except for Parnaiba-Rural and Santa Cruz-Urban. However, the total fertility rate for the latter area in 1975 should be taken with reservations, since fluctuations in the sampling process made the specific fertility rate for women between 15 and 19 very high in 1915. For the same period, the percentage decline was consistently high, ranging from 9 percent to 3S percent; this explains the acceleration in Brazil's fertility decline of an average 24 percent. The decline in contexts located in North and Northeast Brazil ----Recife, Parnaiba-Urban and -Rural' and Conceicso do Araguaia ~ accelerated over the 1970-75 period, rising from 9 percent to 22 percent. In 1970-75, Sao Jose dos Campos maintained the same level of decline as for 1965- 7 Around 17 percent. Cachoeiro showed deceleration in 1970075 with a decline of only 15 percent, as compared to its 26 percent decline for the preceding period. For the lo years front 1965 to 197S, it is very clear that there was a fall of over 30 percent in Sao Jose, Sertaozinho, Cachoe~ro, and Santa Cruz-Urban and -Rural; Recife and Conceicaco do Araguaia maintained a fall of 10 pervert; and only Parnaiba-Rural showed markedly high rates. Another approach to changing fertility levels from 1965 to l9?S is to examine parity for women in the different contexts. Table 52 shows some of this information. To reduce the fluctuation in the sample due to the small num- ber of cases, only average parity based on that of the 25-29 and 30-34 age brackets was calculated, with the aim of ref lecting the average number of children up to 30 years of age. The drop for 1970-7S was also fairly steep--around 17 percent--for most areas, thus corroborat- ing earlier f Endings .

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155 TABLE 52 Mean Parity 1/2 (P25-29 + P30-34), 1965, 1970, and 1975: Brazil 1970. 1975 Context 196S 1970 1975 1965 1970 Santa Cruz-Urban 2032 1099 1.65 14.22 1,.08 Santa Cruz-Etural 2.92 3.16 2.80 +8022 11.39 Cachoeiro 2.99 2.57 2.09 14 ~ 05 18. 68 Sao Jose dos Campos 3 o 13 3.02 20 48 3 0 51 17. 88 Recife 3. 27 3.09 2 0 72 S O 50 11.97 Sertaozinho 3.54 3.47 2. BE 1. 98 16 o 14 Conceicso do Araguaia 3.93 4025 4.34 +8.14 +2.12 Parnaiba-Urban 4.44 4033 3.58 2.48 17.32 Parnaiba-Rural 4 0 68 4 0 70 4 ~ 42 +0. 43 5.96 The central question posed by the data reported above is why cortex" with very different social and economic structures show such similar rates of decline, while more similar contexts show such different rates. The d~scus- sion that follows explores this question by examining the role of nuptiality and marital fertility in the fertility declines observed at the local level (Chapters 7 and 8); the role of the proximate determinants (Chapter 9); and the role of socioeconomic factors, specifically family income (Chapter 10).