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CHAPTER 6
THE TOTAL FERTI LI ~ lo: AWLS AD TRENDS
Before proceeding with an analysis of the total fertility
rate based on NIHR data, it is worth clarifying some
points with regard to these data. The NIBR surveys were
performed with the aim of covering 400 households in each
area except Sao Jose dos Campos and Recife, where 800
households per area were included. As mentioned above,
the information unit was any adult. However, for purposes
of the following analysis, the unit will be taken as a
woman, and some comments should be made in this con-
nection.
First, it is worth noting that the information on a
worn ' ~ reproductive history {contained in the life-
history module) was given by the woman when she was the
selected adult, or by her mate when he was selected,
whether his wife was allure or not. Thus, the samples do
not refer only to cohorts of women who survived until the
survey, and it is not necessary to make the usual assump-
tion that the fertility experience of women who did not
survive is faithfully represented by the experience of
those who did. With this in mind, whenever the rep~oduc-
tive history of an adult is considered, the woman may have
been in any one of the following situations:
1. alive and single
2. alive and married
3. alive and separated
4. alive and widowed
5. dead and married while alive
Situations 1, 3, and 4 could only occur if the woman was
the informant; situation 5 could only occur if a man was
the informant; and situation 2 could occur in either case.
Second, the fact that the investigation also included
single women avoided the problem of completeness involved
151
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152
in leaving out all childbearing experienced by women who
declared they were single at the time of the survey. At
the same time, it meant that, in general, the premarital
experience of women ever married at the time of the survey
was not eliminated.
Third, it should be stressed that in this investigation
there was no cut-of$ age for asking questions on fertility
history. Thus the data were not truncated, as usually
happens when histories are not obtained for women over
age 50. This means that fertility rates could be cal-
culated for almost all age groups and for a distant past,
although it must be remembered that memory problems man
introduce certain difficulties.
The total fertility rates (Table 51) were established
for three different points in time: 1965, 1970, and 1975.
For each of these periods, the rates were calculated on
the basis of the total number of women alive at that time,
regardless of marital status. Thus if a woman was alive,
for instance, in 1965, she was not necessarily alive in
1970 or after. Moreover, when the informant (Ego) was a
husband separated from his wife during the year for which
the fertility rate was calculated, this case was el~mi-
nated, since there was no way of knowing that woman's
situation with regard to ache number of children between
the year of separation and the year of reference for cal-
culating fertility. A further clarification is required
concerning the dates of the surveys. For seven out of
the nine areas, the surveys were conducted in 1976 Or
1977; thus, the data for births in 1975 present no prob-
lems as to the cat endar year. However, in Sao Jose dos
Campos, the survey was performed from May to December
1975, and in Santa Crud do Su}-Urban from November 1975
to July 1976. ~ correction was thus necessary for these
two areas since the women in both were not exposed for the
whole year. For Sao Jose dos C ~ os, the number of births
in 197S was multiplied by the factor 1.53G, and for Santa
Cruz do Sul-Urban by 1.04S.
The first observation to be made when analyzing Table
51 is that there is some consistency between these results
and those of Table 2 from Part ~ of this reports Indeed'
the 1970 rate for Sao Jone (4.83) was consistent with that
for Sao Paulo State (4.07), especially given that more
than 70 percent of the latter's population was urban in
1970. Similarly, for Parnaiba-Rural, Parnaiba-Urban, and
Recife, located in Northeast Brazil, total fertility as
reported in Table 51 varied from 8.42 to S.45 in 1970; the
Table 2 value for the Northeast (7.58) is within this
it, , ~ ,
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153
TABLE 51 Total Fertility Rates, Nine Contexts, 1965,
1970, and 1975: Brazil
Total Fertility Bate
Percent Decline
1970. 19?s. 1975~.
Context 1965 1970 1975 1965 1970 1965
Parnalba-Rura1 `82;l)2 ~2S3)2 (258) S.94 +1202S +SeS8
Sso Jose dos Cantos (4i3) (534) (S92) 17.20 16.56 30.87
Recife (405) (503)8 (45;13° 1.28 8.92 10.09
Concsiceo do Araguata (201)8 (2;2)6 (36i49)6 +1.11 11.02 10.03
Parnaiba~rban (2il) (2;2)6 (6289) 5.48 21.S2 25.82
Sertaozinho (2i7) (2;6)7 l3;6s)8 1.22 35.10 3S.89
Cachoeiro (20864)8 (261~8 (230917 2S.64 14.66 36.~d
Santa Cruz-~ral (2il) (2;3} (2;8) 16.62 2S.53 37.91
Sen" Cruz~Ur~ban (2;3) (2;1) 2;92 41.61 +14.96 32.87
Notes N~re in p"entbe - s are number of won.
range. It should also be noted that in 1970, 58 percent
of the northeastern population lived in rural areas.
Finally, for Concaicso do Araquaia, a frontier area, Table
51 shows a total fertility rate of 7.26 for the same per-
iod; this is very similar to the Table 2 rate for Frontier
States of 7eG8.
There was a very large variation- in fertility from one
context to another, and thin variation increased over
time. In 196S, the maximum variability was about 4 chil-
dren per woman, rising to 5.4 in 1970 and 6.0 In 197S.
The extreme cases were always Santa Cruz do Sul-Urban,
with the lowest total fertility rate, and Parnaiba-Rural,
with the highest. Figure 5 (on page 37) highlights the
enormous differences in fertility between these two
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154
contexts: the reproductive pattern of Santa Cruz-Urban
is more like that of a European country with low
fertility, while that of Parnaiba-~ural resembles a
natural-fertility pattern. ~ further point, which also
confirms the theoretical approach of the NIHR, is that
the rural contexts do not necessarily have higher
fertility rates than the urban contexts.
In analyzing the trends for each context, it can be
seen that from 1965 to 1970, with the exception of Con-
ceicao do Araguaia, all areas show a decline. This
decline was most marked in Santa Cruz-Urban (42 percent),
Cachoeiro (26 percent), Sao Jose dos Campos (17 percent),
and Santa Cruz-Rural (17 percent); Parnaiba-Urban and
oRural had a slight decline of around 5 to 6 percent; and
Recife and Sertaozinho had a fall of only 1.2 percent.
For 1970 to 1975, the decline was much steeper, except for
Parnaiba-Rural and Santa Cruz-Urban. However, the total
fertility rate for the latter area in 1975 should be taken
with reservations, since fluctuations in the sampling
process made the specific fertility rate for women between
15 and 19 very high in 1915. For the same period, the
percentage decline was consistently high, ranging from 9
percent to 3S percent; this explains the acceleration in
Brazil's fertility decline of an average 24 percent. The
decline in contexts located in North and Northeast
Brazil ----Recife, Parnaiba-Urban and -Rural' and Conceicso
do Araguaia ~ accelerated over the 1970-75 period, rising
from 9 percent to 22 percent. In 1970-75, Sao Jose dos
Campos maintained the same level of decline as for 1965-
7 Around 17 percent. Cachoeiro showed deceleration in
1970075 with a decline of only 15 percent, as compared to
its 26 percent decline for the preceding period. For the
lo years front 1965 to 197S, it is very clear that there
was a fall of over 30 percent in Sao Jose, Sertaozinho,
Cachoe~ro, and Santa Cruz-Urban and -Rural; Recife and
Conceicaco do Araguaia maintained a fall of 10 pervert;
and only Parnaiba-Rural showed markedly high rates.
Another approach to changing fertility levels from 1965
to l9?S is to examine parity for women in the different
contexts. Table 52 shows some of this information. To
reduce the fluctuation in the sample due to the small num-
ber of cases, only average parity based on that of the
25-29 and 30-34 age brackets was calculated, with the aim
of ref lecting the average number of children up to 30
years of age. The drop for 1970-7S was also fairly
steep--around 17 percent--for most areas, thus corroborat-
ing earlier f Endings .
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155
TABLE 52 Mean Parity 1/2 (P25-29 + P30-34), 1965, 1970,
and 1975: Brazil
1970. 1975
Context 196S 1970 1975 1965 1970
Santa Cruz-Urban 2032 1099 1.65 14.22 1,.08
Santa Cruz-Etural 2.92 3.16 2.80 +8022 11.39
Cachoeiro 2.99 2.57 2.09 14 ~ 05 18. 68
Sao Jose dos Campos 3 o 13 3.02 20 48 3 0 51 17. 88
Recife 3. 27 3.09 2 0 72 S O 50 11.97
Sertaozinho 3.54 3.47 2. BE 1. 98 16 o 14
Conceicso do Araguaia 3.93 4025 4.34 +8.14 +2.12
Parnaiba-Urban 4.44 4033 3.58 2.48 17.32
Parnaiba-Rural 4 0 68 4 0 70 4 ~ 42 +0. 43 5.96
The central question posed by the data reported above
is why cortex" with very different social and economic
structures show such similar rates of decline, while more
similar contexts show such different rates. The d~scus-
sion that follows explores this question by examining the
role of nuptiality and marital fertility in the fertility
declines observed at the local level (Chapters 7 and 8);
the role of the proximate determinants (Chapter 9); and
the role of socioeconomic factors, specifically
family income (Chapter 10).
Representative terms from entire chapter:
sao jose
