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CHAPTER 1 1 CONCLUS IONS DECOMPOSITION OF GENERAL FERTILITY RATES The contribution of changes in age structure, marital status, and marital fertility to declines in general fer- tility rates in 1970-75 is shown for the nine contexts in Table 770 The standardization procedure used (see United Nations, 19791, taking 1970 as the base year , shows that the three factors play specif ic roles in reducing fertil- ity in the different contexts and that distinct interac- tion effects are also present. As can be seen f over the per iod considered, the decline in the general fertility rate varied a great deal from one context to another, as has already been observed with regard to total fertility rates. The largest fall, in Sertaozinho, was around 67.43 per 1, 000 (174.70 -107. 27) At the other extreme was Santa Cruz-Urban ( 90. 41-83 0 7S), with 6~65 per 1,000. Cachoeiro de Itapemir~m, Sao Jose dos Campos (154049-140.20), Recife (174e85~162~00) ~ and Conceicso do Araguaia (236~26-225~70) showed similar declines, which varied from 11 to IS per 1,000; Parnaiba- Urban (227.94-18S.12) and Santa Cruz-Rural (190.48-149.28) had larger declines of around 40 per 1, 000. The only exception was Parnaiba-Rural (250.49-273.26), with a growth of 22.27 per 1,000 between 1970 and 1975. In all the contexts where there was a reduction in the general fertility rate, except for Santa Cruz-Urban, the decline in marital fertility was the most directly responsible factor . In Cachoeiro, Recife, Sao Jose, and Araguaia, the decline can be totally explained by the reduction in marital fertility, and would have been even larger if age structure and mar ital status had not con- tributed to the attenuation of this reduction. In Cacho- eiro, Recife, and Araguaia, the contribution of marital . 202

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203 ._, so as: U] V) .,' as: sol :: t) :, U) ~s: o a) :' Q a, ~o , 1~ N ,1 ~4 . , O ' ~ ~n QJ ~ ~ X - o U] c) C: ~o ~ =: Z C) ._, _ o c .... N a 4, U] ~ C C L. ~ _ C ~ :1 U) Cl d, 0 ~ h4 L4 _ _ 0 ~ ~ o. U o 0 ~ ~ 0 U: - 3: o o U _ ~o U C a e i~ ~ C C ~n . Ec] -~ JJ ~ a, E~ ~ ~n ~ ~ ~ ~ r~ u~ D t_ ~ ul , . ~4 ~ ~4 ~ ~ ~ _d I _ t ~ ~4 1 ~4 O4 U~ In ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~o . . . . . . _' ~ O D O O ~ t ~4 \0 ~ \0 1 1 1 1 a' ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ V' ~ .e _ _ 4, _ _ _. .4 _ O 48 0 ~ O ~ ~ ~ c ~ e w c ~ ,` ~ ~ 0 0 0 U ~ .4 - 4 _ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ V Cl L. ~ - 4 U ~ C' ~ U ~ ,., ~ ~ ~ _ ~ _ ~ _ Ll _ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s ~ e C c :' >' 4' ~4 4 W O ~ W oc ~ _ 4 U C ~ 0. O ~ ~ 0 \0 1 C 41 C O _ e 0 C 41 X 'uC 4 Ll o E. ~0 ~0 C C C ~ ~C O o E.

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204 status to an increase in the general fertility rate sur- passed that of the age structure of the female population; in Sao Jose, the opposite was the case. It is interesting to note that in Parnaiba-Urban and Santa Cruz-Rural, even though, as already stressed, the major factor determining the decline was the fall in mari- tal fertility, the change in the distribution of the female population according to marital status also con- tributed to the decline. The age structure of the female population, on the other hand f showed little change in the same period' thus favoring an i n - ~:~^ i ~ she ~~_ fertility rate. ~ by_ ~ ^~4 ~~= ~~11=L ~ ~ In sertaozinho, it was not only the fall in marital fertility, but also the change in the age structure of the population that contributed to the decline in the general fertility rate. In Santa Cruz-Urban, these two factors were almost equal in contributing to the small decline for that region. Finally, the increase in the general fertility rate shown for Parnaiba-Rural was the result of an increase in the marital fertility rate, a more favorable distribution by marital status, and an age distribution which favored a drop in fertility. DECOMPOSITION OF TOTAL FERTILITY As seen above, Bongsarts' model for estimating the total fertility rate is expressed by the relation TER ~ 15.3 x Ci x Cat x Ca x Cat tl). In other words, the starting total fecundity rate of 15.3 is gradually reduced by the action of the various inhibit- ing factors. The first of these is postpartum infecun- dity, Ci, which when applied to 15.3 reduces it to the total natural marital fertility rate: TNMFR ~ 15.3 x Ci. This in turn, when reduced through the ef feats of Cc and Ca, becomes the total marital fertility rate, or TMFR ~ TNMFR x ~ x Ca. Finally, the latter, when subjected to the effect of Cm, becomes the total fertility rate, or

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205 TFR = TMFR x Cm. Table 78 shows the decomposed values for the different contexts studied. As Man be seen, the values of C i in Cachoeiro do Itapemirim and Conceicao do Araguaia caused the greatest reduction--around 15 percent--in the total fecundity rate owing to the ef feet of lactation. In Recife, this effect was the lowest of all--only 6 percent. The prevalence of deliberate control of marital fertility was undeniably the main f actor accounting for the reduc- tion in the natural marital fertility rate in all con- texts. In Cachoeiro and Sao Jose dos Campos, this effect reached 70 percent, followed by Santa Cruz-Urban and Ser- taozinho, where it was 65 percent. In Santa Cruz-Rural and Recife, it accounted for 61 percent and 57 percent, respectively, of the fall in the rate in question. The rate for Parnaiba-Rural was reduced by only 24 percent. It should be stressed that in all contexts, although in a - differentiated manner, contraception was the factor directly responsible for the difference between the total natural marital and total marital fertility rates. As for the effect of the absence of marriages, it was very small in Parniaba-Rural and Sertaozinho, varying between 16 and 17 percent. In Parnaiba-Urban and Conceicso do Araguaia, this effect was about 22 percent, increasing to about 30 percent for Santa Cruz. In Sao Jose dos Carepos and Re<:ife 34 percent of the women were not yet married, and in Cachoeiro it was 35 percent, bringing the total marital fertility rate down f rom 3 . 91 to 2. 53 . In the other f ive contexts, this effect was practically uniform--between 21 percent and 24 percent. F INDINGS AT THE NATIONAL/STATE: AND LOCAL I~EVELS When the f indings in Parts I and IT of this report are compared, they are found to be complementary and mutually supportive. Both data sets clearly show an accelerated fertility decline in Brazil during the 1970s. Both indi- cate the importance of consensual unions in Brazilian nuptiality patterns, as well as the cliff iculties involved in gather ing data on these unions; they also point to shif ts in age at mart iage e However, the national- and local-level analyses lead to the same conclusion: that the primary factor responsible for Brazil's accelerated fertility decline is declining marital fertility. This decline can in turn be traced, at both levels of analysis,

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207 to changing patterns of contraceptive use: increased prevalence, coupled with the use of more ef festive methods (the pill and sterilizatiOn). Among the other proximate determinants of marital fertility, postpartum infecund- ability has relatively little impact in Brazil, where the practice of breastfeeding is quite limited; abortion, shown in both data sets to be increasing, is nevertheless an indeterminate f actor because of the usual data-gather- ing problems. Finally, both analyses point to a combina- tion of factors--changes in relative income, increased educational attainment, and increased female labor force participation--as the main socioeconomic determinant of Brazil' s changing patterns of contraceptive use: these factors are associated with increased desires for consumer durables, the diffusion of information on family-size limitations and therefore an increase in conscious fer- tility control.