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COMMITTEE ON
POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY
Report No. 23
.
The Determinants
of Brazil's Recent
Rapid Decline
in Fertility
lhomas WO Memck
~~ Berquo
Panel on Fordlity Determinants
Committee on Pop~a~don and Demography
Confusion on Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1983
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report
was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn 'from the
councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of
Medicine. The members of the co''unittee responsible for
the report were chosen for their special competences and
with regard for appropr late balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than
the authors according to procedures approved by a Repor t
Review Committee consisting of members of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering,
and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the
National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the
broad con munity of science and technology with the
Academy' s purposes of furthering knowledge and of
advising the federal government. The Council operates in
accordance with general policies determined by the
Academy under the authority of its congressional charter
of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private,
nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The
Council has become the principal operating agency of both
the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy
of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the
government, the public, and the scientif ic and
engineering communities. It is administered jointly by
both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The
National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of
Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences.
Available from
NATIONAL ACAD - tY PRESS
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
Printed in the United States of America
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PANEL ON FERTILITY DETERMINANTS
W. PARKER MAULDIN (Chair), The Rockefeller Foundation,
New York
ELLA BERQUO, Centro Brasileiro de Analise e Planejamento,
Sao Paulo, Brazil
WILLIAM BRASS, Centre for Population Studies, London
School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
DAVID R. BRILLINGER, Department of Statistics, University
of California, Berkeley
V.C. CHIDAMBARAM, World Fertility Survey, London
JULIE DAVANZO, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica
RICED A. EASTERLIN, Department of Economics, University
of Southern California, Los Angeles
JAMES T. FAWCETT, East-West Population Institute,
East-West Center, Honolulu .
RONALD FREEDMAN, Population Studies Center, University of-
Michigan
DAVID GOLDBERG, Population Studies Center, University of
Michigan
RONALD GRAY, School of Hygiene and Public Bealth, The
Johns Hopkins University , Baltimore
PAULA E. HOLLERBACE, Center for Policy Studies, The
Population Council, New York
RONALD LEE, Graduate Group in Demography, University of
California ~ Berkeley
ROBERT A. DEVIL:, Graduate School of Education, Earvard
University
SUSAN C.M. SCRIMSHAW, School of Public Bealth, University
of California, Los Angeles
ROBERT WILLIS, Department of Economics, State University
of New York, Stony Brook
ROBERT JO LAEBAM, Study Director
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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY
ANSLEY J . COALE (Chair ), Of f ice of Population Research,
Pr inceton Univer sity
WILLIAM BRASS, Centre for Population Studies, London
School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
LEE-JAY CHO, East-West Population Institute, East-We~t
Center, Honolulu
RONDO FREED - N. Population Studies Center, University of
Michigan
NATHAN KEYFITZ, Department of Sociology, Harvard
University
LESLIE RISE, Institute for Social Research, University of
Michigan
W. PARSER MAULDIN, Population Division, The Rockefeller
Foundation, New York
JANE MENl~l, Office of Population Research, Princeton
University
SAMUEL PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of
Pennsylvania
WILLIAM SELTZER, Statistical Office, United Nations
CONRAD TAEIJBER, Kennedy Institute, Center for Population
Research, Georgetown University
ETTENNE VAN DE ~~ Population Studies Center,
University of Pennsylvania
ROBERT J. LAPEAM, Study Director
.
NOTE: Members of the Committee and its panels and
working groups participated in this project in their
individual capacities; the listing of their
organizational affiliation is for identification purposes
-only, and the view" and designations used in this report
are not necessarily those of the organizations mentioned.
iv
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CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
PREFACE
SAY
INTRODUCTION
Background, 12
Geography and Population Distribution, 12
Political and Economic Bistory, 15
Recent Demographic Trends, 18
Population Trends, 18
National and Regional Trends in the Total
Fertility Rate, 20
Expectation of Life at Birth, 22
Income Class Differences in Fertility and
Mortality, 23
Purpose and Structure of This Report, 25
PART I FERTILITY DETERMINANTS AT t!~ NAT TONAL LEVEL
1 THE PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF ~uKTILITY
Marital Status and Mean Age at Marriage, 30
v
ix
xiv
x
1
12
29
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Mar ital Fertility, 35
Decompos ition of Change in Bir th Rates, 4 1
Role of the Proximate Variables, 42
Contraceptive Use, 44
Abortion, 49
Breastfeeding/Postpartum Amenorrhea, 54
A Speculative Overview of Trends in the
Proximate Determinants of Total Fertility
Rates, 1970-80, 56
Coracles ions, 5 8
2 SOCIOECONOMIC DIFF~TIALS IN FERTILITY
Education and Fertility Decline, 61
Family Income, 67
The Regional Dimension of Income Differences, 73
Conclus ions, 77
60
3 DETERMINANTS OF BRAZIL ' S RECENT FERTILITY DECLINE 79
Hypotheses Linking Socioeconomic Conditions to
Fertility Decline, 80
Increased Access to Fertility Control' 84
Socioeconomic Factors, 90
Socioeconomic Factors and Fertility Decline Among
Urban and Rural Women, 96
Currently Married Urban Women, 97
Currently Married Rural Women, 106
Conclus sons, 113
4 ARALYSIS OF FERTILITY DETERMINANTS AT Am; NATIONAL
LEVEL
Urban Women, 116
Analysis of Urban CEB Differentials in
1970 and 1976, 122
Sources of Change in CEB frown 1970 to 1976, 127
Rural Women' 133
~1
115
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Analysis of Rural CEB Differentials in 1970
and 1976, 136
Changes in Rural CED from 1970 to 1976, 142
Concl~ signs, 14 2
PART I I FERTILITY DETERMINANTS AT Tar: LOCAL LEVEL
,
5 Ted: NIHR: PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY
6 TEE TOTAL E ERTILITY RATI:: I~:VELS AND TRENDS
7 NUPTIALITY
Type of Union, 156
D istr ibution of Types of Union, 156
The Role of Concensual Unions, 16 8
Type of Union and Fertility, 172
Age at Marriage, 174
8 MARITAL f-liKTILITY
9 ARE PROX=AU: VARIAB~:S
Contraceptive Use, 183
Contraceptive Prevalence, 183
Contraceptive Methods, 186
Bongearts' Index of Contraception, 189
Postpartum Infecundability, 191
Abortion, 194
10 SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS:
11 CONCLUSIONS
FAMILY INCOME
Decomposition of General Fertility Rates, 202
Decomposition of Total Fertility, 204
F indings at the National/State and Local
Levels, 205
NOTES
APPENDIX: "E NIER CONTEXTS
REFERENCES
V11
145
151
156
178
181
196
202
208
209
235
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LIST OF TABLES
10
16
1 Components of Population Growth, 1940-80
2 Total Fertility Rates ~ 1950-80
3 Expectation of Life at Birth, l9S0-76
4 Income Class Dif ferences is Total Fertility Rates
and the Expectation of Life at Birth, 1970
Reported Percent Distribution of Women by
Mar ital Status and Age, 1950-80
6 Percent of Single Women Who Report Having Mad a
Child, by Age, 1950-76
7 Singulate Mean Age at Marriage (SMAM), by
Region, 1950-76
8 Age-Specific And Total Marital Fertility Rate
Calculations, 1960, 1970, and 1976
9 Decomposition of Change in General Fertility
Rate, 1960-76
Decomposition of Change in Crude Birth Rate,
1960-76
11 Contraceptive Prevalence, Summary of Survey Data
1 2 Components of Index of Contraception (Cc ), 1970 ,
1976, and 1980
Reported Abortions, Sugary of Survey Data
Reported Breastfaeding, Sugary of Survey Data
13
14
15 Estimates of Proximate Determinants of Total
Fertility Rate, 1970-80
Total Fertility Rates by Years of Schooling,
1970-76
17 Total Fertility Stem by Family Income Level
(multiples of monthly minimum salary), 1970
and 1976
18 Total Fertility Rates by Family Income Deciles,
1970-76
ix
18
20
23
24
31
32
34
36
41
42
4S
48
52
55
56
63
67
70
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72
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
19 Percent [Distribution of All Women Aged 15-49 by
Income Deciles, Years in School, and Rural-Urban
Residence, 1970 and 1976
Unadjusted Total Fertility Rate by PNAD Region
and Income Dec ile, 1970 and 19 7 6
Percent Distribution of Women Aged 15-49 by PNAD
Region and Income Deciles, 1970 and 1976
Percent Distribution of Marr fed Women Aged 15-44,
by Contraceptive Use Status and Household Income
Contraceptive Prevalence Survey Data on Percent
of Currently Married Women Aged 1S~44 Using
Contraceptives, by Education
Source of Family Planning Supplies and Services
Currently Married Women Aged 15-44, CPS Data by
State
Percent of Women Reported as Having No Schooling,
by Age, 1960-80
Percent Distribution of All Women Aged 20-44 by
Age and Years of Schooling, 1970 and 1976
Percent of Women Reported as Working, by Age and
Years of Schooling, 1970 and 1976
28 Mean and Standard Error (S)a of Number of
Children Ever Born, Currently Married Urban
Women, by Age and Educational Attainment, 1970
and 1976
29 Percent Working and Percent Migrants Among
Currently Married, Urban When, 1970 and 1976
30 Distribution of Currently Married Women Aged
20-44 by Occupation, Work Status, and Educa-
tional Attainment, 1970 and 1976
31 Percent of Currently Married' Urban Women Living
in Households Reporting Ownership of a Tele-
vision, by Age and Education, 1970 and 1976
Average Number of Children Ever Born for Cur-
rently Married, Urban Women, by Age, Education,
74
75
88
90
91
93
94
95
97
99
101
102
and Current Employment Status, 1970 and 1976 103
Average Number of Children Ever Born for Migrant
and Nonmigrant Women, by Age and Educational
Attainment, 1970 and 1976
Mean dumber of Children Ever Barn for Currently
Married, Rural Women by Region, Educational
Attainment, and Age, 1970 and 1916
Percent of Currently Married, Rural Women in
Proletarian Households, Percent Working, and
Percent Migrant, by Age and Region, 1970 and
1976
x
104
108
109
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36
37
40
41
43
44
AS
46
4t
48
49
Mean Number of Children Ever Born for Currently
Married, Rural Women Aged 20-44, by Region and
Proletarian Status, 1970 and 1976
Mean Number of Children Ever Born for Currently
Married, Rural Women Aged 20-44, by Region and
Work Status, 1970 and 1976 112
38 Variable Labels and Definitions, Urban Women 118
39 Means (standard deviations) of Variables Used in
Analysis of Differences in Average Parity for
Urban Women, 1970 and 1976
Regression Analysis, Average Number of Children
Ever Born (CEB), Married Urban Women' 1970
Regression Analysis, Average Number of Children
Ever Born (CEB), Married Urban Women, 1976
42 Changes in Contribution of Independent Variables
to Levels of COB, 1970 and 1976
Regression Analysis and Test for Interactions,
Merged 1970 and 1976 Data Files
Decomposition of Changes in Average Parity from
1970 to 1976 Using Regression Coefficient for
Merged Data
Percent of Women with GAP Greater than One
Standard Deviation from Mean, 1970 and 1976
Variable Labels and Definitions, Rural Women
Means (standard deviations) of Variables Used in
Analysis of Differences in Average Parity for
Rural Women, 1970 and 1976
Regression Analysis, Average Number of Children
Ever Born (CUR), Married Rural Women, 1970 140
Regression Analysis, Average Number of Children
Ever Born (CEB), Married Rural Women, 1976 141
111
121
124
125
50 Nine Contexts Defined in Terms of Modes of Produc"
tion and Type of Involvement in the Development
Process
Total Fertility Rates, Nine Contexts, 1965,
1970, and 1975
52 Mean Parity 1/2 (P2S-29 + P30-34)' 1965, 1
and 1975
Percent Distribution of Ever-Married Women, by
Type of Marital Union, Nine Contexts, 1960,
1970, and 1975
Percent Distribution of Ever-Married Women, by
Type of Marital Union, 1960, 1970, and 1978
Distribution of Unions According to Order and
Type
53
54
55
129
130
131
133
137
138
148
X1
153
155
158
160
161
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Distribution of Ever-Married Women by Type of
First Union, for Three Marriage Cohorts:
A (until 1960), ~ (1961-70), and C (1971-76),
and for Nine Contexts
57 Distribution of Ever-Married Women by Type of
First Union, for Three Marriage Cohorts: A
(until 1960), B (1961-70), and C (1971-76), and
for Five Urban and Four Rural Contexts
Distribution of Ever-Married Women According to
Type of First Union, for Three Marriage Cohorts:
A (until 1960), B (1961-70), and C (1971-76),
Nine Contexts
Distribution of Consensual Unions by Different
Types, Nine Contexts
60 Distribution of Consensual Unions, by Type for
Three Marriage Cohorts, Recife
Mean Number of Children Ever Born Alive by
Ever-Married Women, by Type of Marital Union,
Nine Contexts, 1975
62 Mean Number of Children Ever Born' for Currently
Married Women (first marriage), by Type of Union
and Three Marriage Cohorts, Nine Contexts
Estimates for Nuptiality Parameters Using -
Coale's Method, Nine Contexts
Mean Age at Marriage (Bajnal method}, Nine
Contexts
Total Marital Fertility Rates, Nine Contexts,
1970 and 1975
Values for the Fertility Control Measure (m)
Estimated by C^=le's Method, 1970 and 1975
Currently Married Women Aged 15-49 Currently
Using Contraception, by Types of Methods, Nine
Contexts
Currently Married Women Aged 15-49 Currently
Using Contraception, Nine Contexts
Age Distribution of Currently Married,
Sterilized Women Aged 15-49, Nine Contexts
70 Estimates (in percent) for Use Efficiency of
Contraceptives (e), for Currently Married Women,
Nine Contexts
Index of Contraception, Nine Contexts
Percent of Breastfed Children at 4 Months of
Age, by Various Studies
Values of ~ i ~ and Ci, Nine Contexts
Total Abortion Rates (EM) and Bongsarts'
Abortion Rate (Ca), Nine Contexts
xii
163
164
166
170
L72
173
174
17S
176
179
180
182
184
187
190
191
192
194
195
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Percent Distribution of Women Aged 15 and Over,
by Per Capita Monthly Income (in fractions of
one minimum wage), Five Urban Contexts, at Time
of Survey
Average Number of Children Born to Ever-Married
Women Aged 15 and Over, by Per Capita Monthly
Income (in fractions of one minimum wage), Five
Urban Contexts
77 Changes in General Fertility Rates Due to Age
Structure, Marital Status, and Marital
Fertility, Nine Contexts, 1970-75
78 Proximate Determinants of Total Fertility,
Nine Contexts, 1975
Dynamics of the Population of Parnaiba
(municipality), 1940-70
A.2 Dynamics of the Population of Cachoeiro do
Itapemirim (municipality), 1940-70
Dynamics of the Population of Sao Jose dos
Campos (municipality), 1940~70
A.4 Dynamics of the Population of Sertaozinho
(municipality), 1940-70
Ao5 Dynamics of the Population of Santa Cruz do
Sul (municipality), 1940-70
Dynamics of the Population of Recife
(municipalityJ, 1940-70
. . .
x`~z
197
199
203
206
214
217
221
228
231
234
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LIST OF FIGURES
1 Total Fertility Rater by Urban-Rural Residence,
1950-80 - 2
2 Total Fertility Rates by Region, 1950-80 3
3 Changes in Selected Reproductive Measures Based
on Bongearts ' Model, 1970-80 7
Percent of Married Women Aged 15-44, Currently
Using Contraception, by Household Income for
Specif fed Years 8
5 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, 1975 37
6 Age~Specif ic Marital Fertility Rates,
(ASMER25029 = L00), Six Contexts 40
7 Total Fertility Rate by Years of Schooling,
1970 and 1976 6 5
8 Distribution of Women Aged 15-49 by Region and
Income Group, 1976 76
9 National and Regional Trends in Commercial
Distribution of Contraceptive Pills, 1965-81 86
x~v
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PREFACE
Fertility and its determinants have been urgent topics
for research in recent decades with the rapid expansion
in world population. Attempts to control population
growth have focused on reducing fertility, with some
apparent effect. The peak rate of growth in the world's
population has now been passed, but growth is still at a
high level in almost all the developing countries. In
absolute numbers, the increase in the world's population
continues to rise; according to United Nations medium
projections, more people will be added each year for the
next 50 years than were added in 1980.
This report is one of a series of country studies of
fertility determinants carried out by the Panel on
Fertility Determinants of the Committee on Population and
Demography. The Committee on Population and Deacgraphy
was established in April 1977 by the National Research
Council in response to a request by the Agency for
International Development (AID) of the U.S. Department of
S tate .
The causes of the reductions in fertility- whether
they are the effect primarily of such general changes as
lowered infant mortality, increasing education, urban
rather than rural residence, and improving status of
women, or of such particular changes as spreading knowI-
edge of and access to efficient methods of contraception
or abortion--are strongly debated. There are also diver-
gent views of the appropriate national and international
policies on population in the face of these changing
trends. The differences in opinion extend to different
beliefs and assertions about what the population trends
really are in many of the less-developed countries.
Because births and deaths are recorded very incompletely
in much of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, levels and
xv
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trends of fertility and mortality must be estimated, and
disagreement has arisen in some instances about the most
reliable estimates of those levels and trends.
It was to examine these questions that the committee
was established within the Commission on Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education of the National Research
Council. It was funded for a period of five and one-half
years by AID under Contract No. AID/pha-C-1161 and Grant
No. AIO/DSPE-G-0061. Chaired by Ansley J. Coale, the
committee has undertaken three major tasks:
1. To evaluate available evidence and prepare
estimates of levels and trends of fertility and mortality
in selected developing nations;
2. To Improve the technologies for estimating fer-
tility and mortality when only incomplete or inadequate
data exist (including techniques of data collection);
3. To evaluate the factors determining the changes
in birth rates in less-developed nations.
Given the magnitude of these tasks, the committee
concentrated its initial efforts on the first two tasks.
This work is detailed in a series of country and
methodological reports from the National Academy Press,
and the demographic estimation methodology developed for
the country studies is laid out in a volume issued by the
United Nations. Altogether, come 170 population
specialists, including 94 from developing countries, have
been involved in the work of the committee as members of
panels or working groups. The committee, the commission,
and the National Research Council are grateful for the
unpaid time and effort these experts have been willing to
g ive.
The committee initiated work on the third task in
October 1979 when the separately funded Panel on Fertility
Determinants was established. Research on the determi-
nants of fertility change has been carried out by scholars
from several disciplines, and there is no comprehensive
accepted theory of fertility change to guide the evalua-
tion. Because of this state of knowledge of the causes
of reductions in fertility and the difficulty of the task,
the Panel on Fertility Determinants includes scholars
from anthropology, demography, economics, epidemiology,
psychology, sociology, and statistics. Three committee
members serve on the panel. The work program of the panel
includes the preparation of a report that attempts to
summarize and integrate scientific knowledge about the
xvi
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determinants of fertility "Academic Press, 1983) as well
as a few illustrative cross-national analyses and studies
of several developing countries (see inside back cover).
This report is the fourth panel country study. It
has been prepared by Thomas W. Merr ink, director, Center
for Population Research, Georgetown University, and Elza
Be~quo, research scholar, Centro Brasileiro de Analise e
Planejamento, Sao Paulo, Brazil, and a member of the
panel. Although it is self~contained, the study is in
part a companion ho the report of the committee's Panel
on Brazil, Levels and Recent Trends in Fer Utility and
Mortality in Brazil, published earlier this year, which
examines some of the demographic estimates that are
incorporated in this report. Thomas Merrick served as a
member of the Panel on Brazi 1.
The work on this study we'; carried out at Georgetown
University and at the Centro Bras~leiro de Analise e
Planejamento. During its preparation, each author spent
time at the other's institution and at the committee
office. Both of the authors' institutions provided
logistical support, and, more important' each institution
essentially supported each author during the time they
devoted to the preparation of thin report. The panel and
the committee are grateful to these institutions for all
of this support.
Partial f inancial support for research assistance
and computer use also was provided through an award from
the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations' Research Program on
Fertility, Mortality, and Development Interrelations.
For Part ~ of this report, Mahesh Sharma provided capable
programming and statistical assistance, and Pamela Nall
made valuable contributions to the preparation of tables
and in typing mater ial for the repot t. For Par t }I,
Marcelo Cesar Gouveia and Ivaldo Olimpio da Silva
assessed an programming, Rebecca de Sousa e Silva
provided statistical assistance in preparing tables, and
Oneida Maria Borges deserves credit for typing draft
material for the report. Jose Alberto Magno de Carvalho,
Hania Zlotnik, and Leo Morris provided comments and
technical advice at various stages. Brazil's IPPF
aff iliate, BEMFAM, and the U. S. Centers for Disease
Control were particularly helpful in providing
information and advance copies of tables from the
Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys cited in the report.
An early version of the draft report was discussed
at a country studies workshop organized by the panel in
.
Hi i
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January 1982 with f inancial assistance from the
Rockefeller Foundation. Finally, panel and co''unittee
reviewers provided advice and suggestions.
Several members of the panel and committee staff
assisted in the preparation of this report. On the
production side appreciation is expressed to Elaine
McGarraugh of the panel staff for handling the production
edi ting details, to Solve ig Padilla and Irene Mar tines
for helping type the text and tables, and to Ron a Briere
f or edi ~ ing then repor t.
WO PARKER MAULDTN' Chair
Panel on Fertility Determinants
· . .
XY1\ 1
\
