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References Aday, L.A., and Andersen, R. 1975 Development of Indices of Access to Medical Care. Ann Arbor, Mich.: Health Administration Press. Adler, G.S. ~982 Evaluation Options for Medicaid. Technical Appendix: Review of HCFA Data Sources. Urban Systems Research and Engineering, Inc., Cambridge, Mass. and Systemetrics, Inc., Lexington, Mass. Aloia, J.F., Cohn, S.H., Ostuni, J.A., Cane, R., and Ellis, K. 1978 Prevention of involutional bone loss by exercise. Arrivals of Internal Medicine 89:356-358. Andersen, P.K., and Borgan, O. 1984 Counting Process Models for Life History Data: A Review. Re- search Report 84/2, Statistical Research Unit, University of Copen- hagen. Andersen, R.M., McCutcheon, A., Aday, L.A., Chin, G.Y., and Bell, R. 1983 Exploring dimensions of access to medical care. Health Service Research 18~1~:49-74. Anderson, W.F. 1966 The prevention of illness in the elderly: The Rutherglen experiment in medicine in old age. Proceedings of a CorJerer~ce Held at the Royal College of Physicians. London: Pitman. Andrews, F., and Withey, S.R. 1976 Social Indicators of Well-being: American' Perceptions of Life Quality. New York: Plenum Press. Bergner, M. 1985 Measurement of health status. Medical Care 23~5~. Berkman, L.F. 1985 Maintenance of Health-Prevention of Disease: A Psychological Perspective. Paper prepared for Panel on Statistics for an Aging Population, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. 259

260 AGING POPULATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Berkman, L.F., and Breslow, L. 1983 Hcalth and Wad of Living: The Alameda County Study. New York: Oxford University Press. Berry, G. 1974 Longitudinal observations: Their usefulness and limitations with special reference to the forced expiratory volume. Bulletin do Physio pathologic Rcspiratoirc 10:129-145. Besdine, R.W. 1982 The data base of geriatric medicine. Pp. 1-15 in J.W. Rowe and R.W. Besdine, eds., Hcalth arid Discard in Old Age. Boston: Little, Brown. The educational utility of comprehensive functional assessment in the elderly. Journal of the American Geriatric Society 31:651-656. Functional Assessment in the Elderly: Relationships Between Func tion and Diagnosis. Paper presented at the Fifth Annual Sympo sium on the Elderly and Their Health, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Mary land. Bharadwaj, L.K., and Wilkening, E.A. 1977 1983 1984 1980 The prediction of perceived well-being. Social Indicators Research 4:42 1-439. Life domain predictors of satisfaction with personal efficacy. Human Relation, 33:165-181. Blanchet, M. 1986 Advances in Preventive Medicine. Paper presented at the Collo- quium on Aging with Limited Health Resources, Economic Council of Canada, Winnipeg, Manitoba. Blendon, R.J. 1986 Health policy choices for the 1990s. Issues in Science and Technology 2~4~:65-73. Branch, L.G., and Jette, A.M. 1982 A prospective study of long-term care institutionalization among the aged. American Journal of Public Hcalth 72:1373-1379. Personal health practice and mortality among the elderly. American Journal of Public Hcalth 74:1126-1129. 1984 Brady, E. 1981 Women in the middle. The Gerontologist 21 (5) :471-480. Brody, J.A. 1987 The best of times and the worst of times: Aging and dependency in the 21st century. Pp. 3-21 in S.~. Spicker, S.R. Ingman, and I.R. Lawson, eds., Ethical Dimension, of Geriatric Carc. Boston: D. Reidel Publishing Co. Brook, R.H., and Lohr, K.N. 1985 Efficacy, effectiveness, variations and quality: Boundary-crossing research. Medical Carc 23 (5) :710-722. Buckler, W., and Smith, C. 1980 The Continuous Work History Sample (CWHS): Description and contents. Pp. 165-174 in Economic and Demographic Statistics. Wash- ington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Social Security Administration.

REFERENCES 261 Busse, E.W., and Maddox, G.L. 1985 Longitudinal Study of Normal Aging, 1955-1980. An Overview of History, Dcs*n, and Findings. New York: Springer Publishing Company. Campbell, A., Converse, P.E., and Rodgers, W.L. 1976 Thc Quality of American Life. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Cook, N., and Ware, J.H. 1983 Design and analysis methods for longitudinal research. Annual Review of Public Health 4:1-23. Cornoni-Huntley, J., Brock, D.B., Ostfeld, A.M., Taylor, J.O., and Wallace, R.B., eds. 1986 Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly: Resource Data Book. National Institute of Aging. NIH Publication #86-2443. Washington, D.C.: National Institutes of Health. Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS). 1986 Nc?~u from COPAYS. No. 50. October. Council of Professional Asso- ciations on Federal Statistics, Washington, D.C. Cox, B., and Bonham, G. 1983 Sources and solutions for missing data in the NMCUES. Pp. 444-449 in Proceedings of the Section of Survey Research Methods. Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association. Cox, L., Johnson, B., McDonald, S., Nelson, D., and Vazquez, V. 1985 Confidentiality issues at the Census Bureau. Pp. 199-218 in Pro- cecding~, First Annual Research Confcrcnec. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Cross, P.S., and Gurland, B.J. . 1986 The Epidemiology of Dementing Disorders. Contract report pre pared for the Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Crazier, D. 1985 DataWatch. Hc~th Apart 4(spring):114-128. Dalenius, T. 1986 The 1986 Invasion of Privacy Debate in Sweden. Unpublished report, Brown University. David, M. 1983 Technical, Conceptual, and Admini~tratioc Lce~on~ of the Income Survey Development Program. New York: Social Science Research Council. Davis, K. 1985 Access to health care: A matter of fairness. Pp. 45-47 in Health Care: How to Improve It and Pay for It. Washington, D.C.: Center for National Policy. Debris, K., and Rowland, D. 1986 Mascara Policy: New Directions for Health and Long-Tcrm Care. Balti more: Johns Hopkins University Press. Dawber, T. 1980 Thc FEamingham Study: Thc Epidemiology of Atherosclerotic Heart Dis ca~c. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Donabedian, A. 1980 Explorations in Quality A~e~mcnt and Monitoring, Volume I: Thc Defi- nition of Quality and Approaches to Its As~c~`mcnt. Ann Arbor, Mich.: Health Administration Press.

262 A GING POPULATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Doty, P. 1986 Family care of the elderly: The role of public policy. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 64~1~:34-75. Doty, P., Liu, K., and Weiner, J. 1985 Special report: An overview of long-term care. Health Care Financing Review 6~3~:69-78. DuMouchel, W.H., and Harris, J.E. 1983 Bayes methods for combining the results of cancer studies in humans and other species. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78:293-315. Duncan, G.T., and Lambert, D. 1986 Drsclosure-limited data dissemination. Journal of the American Sta- ti~tical Association 81:10-18. Duncan, O.D. 1981 Two faces of panel analysis. In S. Leinhardt, ea., SociologicalMethod- ology, 1981. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. Elder, Charles D., and Coble, Roger W. 1984 Agenda building and the politics of aging. Policy Studies Journal, 13:115-129. Etheredge, Lynn 1987 Redc~igrung Medicare: A Comparison of Benefit and Financing Reform Proposals. Prepared by the Consolidated Consulting Group for the National Health Policy Forum. Washington, D.C.: National Health Policy Forum. Feder, J.M., and Scanlon, W.M. 1980 Regulating the bed supply in nursing homes. Milban~c Memorial Fund Quarterly 58~1~:34-88. Feldman, J.J. 1983 Work ability of the aged under conditions of improving mortality. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 61:430-444. Fellegi, I., and Sunter, A. 1969 A theory of record linkage. Journal of the American Stats~tscal A~socia- tion 64:1183-1210. Fienberg, S.E., and Tanur, J.M. 1986 The design and analysis of longitudinal surveys: Controversies and issues of cost and continuity. Pp. 60-93 in R. Boruch and R. Pearson, eds., Survey Research Designs: Towards a Better Understanding of Their Coots and Benefits. Lecture Notes in Statistics, Volume 38. New York: Springer-Verlag. Fienberg, S.E., Loftus, E.F., and Tanur, J.M. 1985 Cognitive aspects of health surveys for public information and policy. Milbank Memorial Fund Quartcrly/Hcalth and Society 63~3~. Fillenbaum, Gerda G. 1984 Thc Wellbeing of the Elderly: Approaches to Multidimensional As~c~smcnt. Geneva: World Health Organization. Filner, B., and Williams, T.F. 1981 Health promotion for the elderly: Reducing functional dependence. Pp. 187-204 in A.R. Somers, and D.R. Fabian, eds., Thc Geriatric Imperatioc: An Introduction to Gerontology and Clinical Geriatrics. New York: Appleton-Century-Croft. .

REFERENCES 263 Fox, A. 1979 Pre-retirement earnings patterns: Evidence from the Retirement History Study. Pp. 265-270 in Proceedings of the Social Statistics Scchon. Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association. Franklin, J.L., Solovitz, B., and Simmons, J. 1984 Quality of Life of the Chronically Mentally Ill. Paper presented November 11-16, 1984 at the annual meeting of the American Public Health Association, Anaheim, Calif. Franks, P., Lee, P.R., and Fullarton, J.E. 1983 Lifetime Fitness and Exercise for Older People. A background paper prepared for the Administration on Aging, U.S. Depart- ment of Health and Human Services. Aging Health Policy Center, University of California, San Francisco. Freedman, R., and Takeshita, J.Y. 1969 Farruly Planning in Taiwan. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Freeland, M.S., and Schendler, C.E. 1983 National health expenditure growth in the 1980s: An aging pop- ulation, new technologies, and increasing competition. Health Care Financing Review 4~3~:1-58. Fries, James F. 1980 Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. New England Journd1 of Medicine 303~3) :130-135. 1983 The compression of morbidity. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 61 :397-419. Fullerton, H.N., Jr. 1980 The 1995 labor force: A first look. Morally Labor Review 103~12~:11- 21. Garfinkel, S.A., and Corder, L. 1984 Supplemental Wealth Indurated Coucrayc Amoral Aged Medicare Beneficia rscs. Series B. Descriptive Report 5. Washington, D.C.: Health Care Financing Administration, Office of Research and Demonstra tions. Gastil, R. 1978 Social indicators and quality of life. Public Adrruni~tration Review 30:596-601. Geisser, S. 1980 Growth curve analysis. Pp. 89-115 in P.R. Krishnaiah, ea., Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 1. New York: North-Holland Publishing Company. George, L., and Bearon, L. 1980 Quality of Life in Older Persons: Meaning and Measurement. New York: Human Sciences Press. German, P.S. 1981 Measuring functional disability in the older population. American Journal of Pubic Health 71~11~:1197-1199. German, P.S., Klein, L.E., McPhee, S.J., and Smith, C.R. 1982 Knowledge of and compliance with drug regimens in the elderly. Journal of the American Geriatric Society 30:568-571. Gilson, B.S., Michnich, M.E., Thompson, R.S., and E`riedlander, L. 1984 Physician Effectiveness in Preventive Care Project. Investigation

264 AGING POPULATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY supported by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Ser- vices, Public Health Service, National Center for Health Services Research. Grant No. 1 R18 HS 04387-01. Ginsburg, P.B., and Hackbarth, G.M. 1986 Alternative delivery systems and Medicare. Hc~th Affairs (spring):6- 22. Glass, G.V. 1976 Primary, secondary and meta-analysi~ of research. Educational Re- ~carcher 5:3-8. Goldschmidt-Clermont, Luisella 1982 Product Related Evaluation of Unpaid Household Work: A Chal- lenge for Time Use Studies. Unpublished paper. Institute de Sociologie, Universite Libre de Bruxelles. Goodman, L.A. 1978 Analyzing Qualitatinc/CategoricalData. Cambridge, Mass.: Abt Books. Gordon, Nancy M., for the U.S. Congressional Budget Office 1986 Statement to Subcommittee on Health and the Environment, Com- mittee on Energy and Commerce, U.S. House of Representatives. March 26. Gornick, M., Greenberg, J.N., Eggers, P.W., and Dobson, A. 1985 Twenty years of Medicare and Medicaid: Covered populations, use of benefits, and program expenditures. Health Carc Financing Review Annual Supplemcnt:13-59. Greenfield, S., Cretin, S., Worthman, L.G., Dorey, F., Solomon, N., and Goldberg, G. 1981 Comparison of a criteria map to a criteria list in quality of care assessment for patients with chest pain: The relation of each to outcome. Medical Carc 19~3~:255-272. Gruenberg, Ernest M. 1977 The failures of success. Milbank Memorial Fund Quartcrly/Hcalth and Society 55~1~:3-24. Gupta, S., and Wilton, P.C. 1987 Combination of forecasts: An extension. Management Scienec 3:352 372. Hall, M.J. 1983 Mental illness and the elderly. Pp. 483-505 in R.J. Vogel and H.C. Palmer, eds., Long-Tcrm Carc, Pcrspectiocs from Research and Dcmonstrabone. Washington, D.C.: Health Care Financing Admin istration. Health Care Financing Administration 1985a Mcdscarc Program Statistics. Baltimore, Md.: Bureau of Data Man agement and Strategy. Project to Redesign Information Systems Management (PRISM). Office of Information Resources Management, Bureau of Data Man agement and Strategy. October. Heckman, J., and Hotz, V.J. 1987 Do we need experimental data to evaluate the impact of manpower training or earnings? Evaluation Review 11~4~:395-427. Heckman, J., and Singer, B. 1985 Longitudinal Analgesia of Labor Market Data, New York: Cambridge University Press. 1985b

REFERENCES 265 Hedges, L.V., and Olkin, I. 1985 Statistical Mcthod~for Meta-Anal~u. New York: Academic Press. Herzog, A.R., Rodgers, W.L., and Woodworth, J. 1982 Subjective Well-being Among Different Age Groups. Research Re- port Series, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan. Hodgson, T.A., and Meiners, M. 1982 Cost-of-illness methodology: A guide to current practices and pro- cedures. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 60~3~:429-462. Horn, S.D., and Horn, R.A. 1986 The computerized severity index: A new tool for case mix manage- ment. Proccedir~g~ of the tech Annual Hawaii Ir~crnational Conference on Syetcrn~ Science. Hu, T., and Sandifer, F.H. 1981 Synthesis and Cost of Illness Methodology. National Center for Health Services Research Contract No. 233-79-3010. Public Services Laboratory, Georgetown University. Institute of Medicine 1986 Improving the Quality of Carc in Nursing Rome`. Committee on Nursing Home Regulations, Institute of Medicine. Washington, D. C.: National Academy Press. Interagency Statistical Committee on Long-Term Care of Elderly 1980 Data coverage of the functionally limited elderly: Report of the Interagency Statistical Committee on Long-Term Care of Elderly. Statistical Reporter 80~10~:281-316. Inui, T.S., and Carter, W.B. 1985 Problems and prospects for health services research on provider patient communication. Mcdical Carc 23~5~. Jabine, T. 1985 Properties of the social security number relevant to its use in record linkages. Pp. 213-226 in B. Kilss and W. Alvey, eds., Record Linkage Techniques 1985. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the treasury, internal Revenue Service. Jajich, C.L., Ostfeld, A.M., and Freeman, D.H., Jr. 1984 Smoking and coronary heart disease mortality in the elderly. Journal of the American Mcdical Association 252:2831-2834. Kane, R.A., and Kane, R.L. 1981 Acing the Elderly: A Practical Guide to Measurement. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books. Kane, R.L., Kane, R.A., and Arnold, S.B. 1985 Prevention and the elderly: Risk factors. Wealth Scrvicc~ Research 19 (February, Part II):945-1005. Kane, R.L., Solomon, D., Beck, J., Keeler, E., and Kane, R. 1980 Geriatric manpower in the United States. New England Jou,nal of Medicine. 302~24):1327-1332. Kane, R.L., Solomon, D., Beck, J., Keeler, E., and Kane, R. 1981 Geriatrics in the United States. Manpower Projections arid Raining Considerations. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books. Katz, S., Branch, L.G., Branson, M.H., Papsidero, J.A., Beck, J.C., and Greer, D.S. 1983 Active life expectancy. New England Journal of Medicine 309:1218- 1224.

266 v --is . . . . . . AGING POPULATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Katz, S., Greer, D.S., Beck, J.C., Branch, L.G., and Spector, W.D. 1985 Active life expectancy. In America's Aging: Health in an Older Society. Committee on an Aging Society, Institute of Medicine and National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Katzman, R. 1985 Aging and age-dependent disease: Cognition and dementia. Pp. 129-152 in America'` Aging: Health in an Older Society. Committee on an Aging Society, Institute of Medicine and National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Kessner, D.M., Kalk, C.E., and Singer, J. 1973 Assessing health quality The case for tracers. New England Journal of Medicine 288(January):189-194. Kilss, B., and Scheuren, F. 1978 The 1973 CPS-IRS-SSA Exact Match Study. Social Security Bulletin 41 (10~:14-22. Kleinman, J.C., Gold, M., and Makuc, D. 1981 Use of ambulatory medical care by the poor: Another look at equity. Medical Care 19:1011-1029. Koizumi, A. 1982 Toward a healthy life in the twenty-first century. Chapter 6 in Population Aging in Japan Problems and Policy Induce in the Twenty-first Century. Chiyodaku, Tokyo, Japan: Nihon University. 1981 Kovar, M.G. 1986 Expenditures for the medical care of elderly people living in the community in 1980. The Milbank Quarterly 64~1 ~ :100-132. Kramer, F., ed. 1988 From Quality Condrol to Quality Improuemcnt in AFRO and Medi- caid. Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Kramer, Morton 1980 The rising pandemic of mental disorders and associated chronic diseases and disorders. Acta P~ych~atrica Scandinausca Supplement 285~62~:382-396. The Increasing Prevalence of Mental Disorders: Implications for the Future. Paper presented at the National Conference on the Elderly Deinstitutionalized Patient in the Community, Arlington, Va. Lakatta, E.G. 1985 Health, disease, and cardiovascular aging. Pp. 73-104 in America' Aging: Health in an Older Society. Committee on an Aging Society, Institute of Medicine and National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Lawton, M.P. 1977 Planning and Marinating Homing for the Elderly. New York: Wiley. Lee, P.R. 1985 Health promotion and disease prevention for children and the el derly. Health Scrvicc~ Research 19 (February, Part II):783-792. Lessler, J.T., and Sirken, M.G. 1985 Laboratory-based research on the cognitive aspects of survey meth- odology: The goals and methods of the National Center for Health

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268 AGING POPULATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Manton, K.G., and Woodbury, M.A. 1983a A mathematical model of the physiological dynamics of aging and correlated mortality selection: I. Theoretical development and cri tiques. Journal of Gerontology 38~4) :398-405. 1983b A mathematical model of the physiological dynamics of aging and correlated mortality selection: II. Application to the Duke Longi tudinal Study. Journal of Gcrordology 38~4~:406-413. Maslow, A.H. 1954 Motivation and Personality. New York: Harper and Row. Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. 1986 Evaluation of the National Long-Term Care Demonstration: Final Report Executive Summary. Prepared by George J. Carcagno and others for HCFA, ADA, ASPE, Department of Health and Human Services. Princeton, N.J.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Meiners, M.R. 1985a Long term care insurance. Gcncration~ (summer)39-42. 1985b Data Requirements for Long-term Care Insurance. Paper prepared for the Panel on Statistics for an Aging Population, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. Menefee, J.A. 1985 Economic Data and the Analysis of Health-related Issues of the Elderly. Paper prepared for the Committee on National Statistics, Panel on Statistics for an Aging Population, National Research Council. Minaker, K.L., and Rowe, J.W. 1985 Health and disease among the oldest old: A clinical perspective. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 63:324-349. Mohr, K.H. 1985 Peer Review Organizations {PRO`J: Quality A``urancc in Medicare. Pa- per prepared for Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Morgan, J.N., and Smith, J.D. 1969 Measures of economic well-offnes~ and their correlates. American Econorruc Review 59:912-926. Murnagh an, J.H., ed. 1976 L'ong-Tcrm Care Data. Report of the Conference on Long-Term Health Care Data. Philadelphia, Pa.: J.B. Lippincott Company. Myers, George C. 1985 Research for Tomorrow's Elderly. Paper prepared for the Panel on Statistics for an Aging Population, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. Myers, G.C., Pitts, A.M., Hillson, R., and Stallard, E. 1977 A microsimulation model for health status projections. Pp. 694-700 in Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section of the American Stati~- tical Association, Part II. Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association. Najman, J.M., and Levine, S. 1981 Evaluating the impact of medical care and technologies on the quality of life: A review and critique. Social Science and Medicine 15F(June-September) :107-115.

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It is not news that each of us grows old. What is relatively new, however, is that the average age of the American population is increasing. More and better information is required to assess, plan for, and meet the needs of a graying population. The Aging Population in the Twenty-First Century examines social, economic, and demographic changes among the aged, as well as many health-related topics: health promotion and disease prevention; quality of life; health care system financing and use; and the quality of care—especially long-term care. Recommendations for increasing and improving the data available—as well as for ensuring timely access to them—are also included.

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