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Appendix F Biographical Sketches SAM SHAPIRO (Chair) is professor emeritus of health policy and management and past director of the Health Services Research and Development Center in the School of Hygiene and Public Health at Johns Hopkins University. He is a senior member of the Institute of Medicine, a member of the American Epidemiologic Society, and a fellow of the American Public Health Association, the American Statistical Association, the American Association for the Advance- ment of Science, and the American Heart Association. His fields of interest are biostatistics and epidemiology, and his publications cover such topics as information systems, the organization, distribu- tion, utilization, and quality of care, secondary prevention of breast cancer, coronary heart disease prognosis, and the need for mental health services. He received a B.S. degree from Brooklyn College in 1933 and has carried out graduate study in statistics at Columbia and George Washington Universities. DAN GERMAN BLAZER IT is professor of psychiatry at Duke Uni- versity Medical Center and adjunct professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina. He directs the Affective Disorders Pro- gram and the Center for the Study of Depression in the Elderly. He also serves currently as principal investigator of the National Insti- tute on Aging's Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies in the Elderly project and was previously the principal investigator for the Duke Epidem~ological Catchment Area Project. His present work examines the epidemiology of physical and mental health in 319

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320 AGING POPULATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY both clinical and community populations. He received an M.D. de- gree from the University of Tennessee and also has M.P.H. and Ph.D. degrees in epidemiology from the University of North Carolina. LAURENCE G. BRANCH is professor of community medicine and public health at Boston University and chairman of the health ser- vices section in the School of Public Health. During the deliberations of the panel he was an associate professor at Harvard University and a health policy gerontologist at the Harvard Division on Aging. He received a B.A. in psychology from Marquette University and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in social psychology from Loyola Univer- sity. He has been the chairman of the Gerontological Health Section of the American Public Health Association and a member of the 1981 White House Conference on Aging. He has been the director of the Massachusetts Health Care Panel Study, a longitudinal study of community older people, since 1974. His publications clarify the development of disabilities and the use of health and social services by older citizens. NEAI, E. CUTI,ER is professor of political science and gerontol- ogy at the University of Southern California and codirector of the Institute for Advanced Study in Gerontology and Geriatrics at the University's Andrus Gerontology Center. In 1972-1973 he was a Fulbright research fellow at Helsinki University, and in 1979-1980 served as a staff member of the U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging. He is a fellow of the Gerontological Society of America and a member of the editorial board of the American Society on Aging. He is currently directing the country's first national survey of public knowledge about and perceptions of Alzheimer's disease. He received a Ph.D. in political science from Northwestern University. DOROTHY M. GILFORD served as study director of the panel's work. Formerly, she served as director of the National Center for Education Statistics and as director of the mathematical sciences division of the Office of Naval Research. Her interests are in re- search program administration, organization of statistical systems, education administration, education statistics, and human resource statistics. A fellow of the American Statistical Association, she has served as vice president of the association and chairman of its com- mittee on fellows. She is a member of the International Statistics Institute. She received B.S. and M.S. degrees in mathematics from the University of Washington.

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BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES 321 JEANNE E. GRIFFITH is a specialist in social legislation at the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress. She has served as a survey statistician at the Office of Management and Budget, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, and the Bureau of the Census and as a demographer at the Bureau of the Census and for the government of the county of Fairfax, Virginia. Her principal interests have been the relationships between demographic trends and public policy as well as federal statistical policy. She received a B.A. from the College of William and Mary, an M.A. in sociology from the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in statistics from George Washington University, and a Ph.D. in sociology from Johns Hopkins University. ROBERT L. KAHN is a research scientist at the Institute for So- cial Research of the University of Michigan as well as professor of psychology and of public health at that university. He is a fellow of the American Psychological Association, the American Statisti- cal Association, and the Academy of Behavioral Medicine Research. His research interests began with organizational theory and now emphasize psychosocial factors that influence productive behavior throughout the life course. He received a Ph.D. degree in social psychology from the University of Michigan. GARY G. KOCH is professor of biostatistics at the School of Public Health, University of North Carolina, where he has served on the faculty since 1968. He received a B.S. in mathematics and an M.S. in industrial engineering from Ohio State University and a Ph.D in statistics from the University of North Carolina. His principal research interest has been the development of statistical methodology for the analysis of categorical data and corresponding applications to a broad range of research settings in the health and social sciences. He served as the editor of The American Statistician during 1981- 1984. He currently is chairman of the Comrn~ttee for the American Statistical Association Sesquicentennial in 1989. JUDITH R. LAVE is professor of health economics at the Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh. She received un- dergraduate training at Queen's University in Canada and a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. She has been a faculty member of Carnegie-Mellon University; director of Economic Quantitative Analysis, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Department of Health and Human Services; and director of the Office of Research, Health Care Financing Administration.

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322 AGING POPULATION IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY She has served as a consultant to both private and public agencies and has served on a number of national committees. She is currently a member of the Institute of Medicine's Committee on Health Care for the Homeless and on the Technical Advisory Pane! on the Evalua- tion of the Medicare Prospective Payment System of the Health Care Financing Administration. She is president-elect of the Association for Health Services Research. DOROTHY P. RICE is professor in residence in the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, with joint appointments with the Institute for Health and Aging and the Institute for Health Policy Studies, at the University of California, San Francisco. From 1977 to 1982 she served as director of the National Center for Health Statistics. Previously she served as deputy assistant commissioner for research and statistics of the Social Security Administration. She is a member of the Institute of Medicine, a fellow of the American Statistical Association and the American Public Health Association, and a member of the American Economic Association, the Population Association of America, and the Gerontological Society of America. She has a B.A. in economics from the University of Wisconsin and an honorary Sc.D. from the College of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey. Her major interests include health statistics, the impact of an aging population, cost of illness studies, and the economics of medical care. CAROLYN C. ROGERS, who-served as research associate during the first year of the study, is currently a research associate with Child Trends, Inc., in Washington, D.C. At the time of the study, she was on leave to the pane! from the Bureau of the Census. Her major research interests include fertility, delayed childbearing, arid child care arrangements; she has published numerous articles and reports on fertility-related issues, many based upon analyses of the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. She is a member of the Population Association of America. She received an M.A. degree in sociology/demography from Brown University. JOHN W. ROWE, a geriatrician, is director of the Division on Ag- ing at Harvard Medical School, chief of gerontology at Beth Israel and Brigham and Women's Hospitals, and director of the Veterans Administration's Boston-area Geriatric Research Education Clinical Center. A recipient of a B.S. degree from Canisius College and an M.D. from the University of Rochester, he was trained in internal medicine at Beth Israel and Massachusetts General Hospitals and in

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BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES 323 gerontology at the National Institute on Aging. His research focuses on the physiological changes accompanying normal aging and their clinical impact. His past service on national committees includes chairmanship of the National Institutes of Health study section on aging. He is currently chairman of the Institute of Medicine's project on Leadership for Geriatric Medicine and the MacArthur Foundation Research Program on Successful Aging. ETHEL SHANAS is professor emerita of sociology and professor emerita of health care services at the University of Illinois at Chicago. She received B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees in sociology from the University of Chicago. In 1985 she received an honorary degree of doctor of humane letters from Hunter College, City University of New York. She is a past president of the Gerontological Society of America and of the Midwest Sociological Society and the 1986 chair of the section on aging of the American Sociological Association. As a member of the National Committee on Vital and Health Statistics, she served as chair of the consultant pane! that developed the Long- Term Health Care Minimum Data Set. She is a senior member of the Institute of Medicine. JAMES H. WARE is professor of biostatistics at the Harvard School of Public Health. He received a B.A. in mathematics from Yale University and a Ph.D. in statistics from Stanford University. He spent eight years at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute before joining the Harvard faculty in 1979. His research interests include statistical methods for longitudinal studies, epidemiologic methods, and statistical aspects of environmental research.