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5 Statistics on Trends and Characteristics of Exchange Participants from China We are now ready to turn to the statistics themselves. Although supplemented with more recent figures and some previously unavail- able data, the basic trends and conclusions are, for the most part, identical to those described by David Lampton in the earlier study.t The commentary that follows is essentially a "walk through the data" with a minimum of "table climbing.n It should also be noted that some of the issues inherent in the statistics were discussed more fully or from a somewhat different perspective in the first part of this study. There are several ways in which the statistics could have been organized and discussed. In attempting to take into consideration the special interests of the various constituencies, the analysis was divided Into the following three parts: (1) "students and scholars," which makes possible some general conclusions about everyone in- volved in the exchange programs; (2) "students,n which allows com- parisons between the J-1 and F-1 visa holders in this category; and (3) "research scholars, which focuses on the more senior segment of the participants. 1David M. Lampton et al., A Relationship Restored Arcade in U.S.-China Educational Ezchangce' 19978-1981 (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1986). 87

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88 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA J-1 AND F-1 STUDENTS AND SCHOLARS The visas issued by the U.S. Embassy and Consulates in China- and it ~ rare for an issued visa to go unused provide us with the most reliable information on the number of students and scholars entering the United States. Table ~1 presents the number of J-1 and F-1 visas issued between 1979 and 1986. The figures show an annual increase in the number of J-1 visas, but a considerable fluctuation in the case of F-1 visas, which were subject to more policy shifts. For the period under discussion, only in 1980 were there more F-1 than J-1 visas issued, reflecting a rapid surge in applications by privately sponsored students in the immediate postnormal~zation period, while it took more time (and red tape) to start up the flow of government- sponsored scholars. For the other seven years, the proportion of F-1 visas ranged from a low of 23.2 percent of the total in 1983 to 43.3 percent in 1981. With the opening up of additional U.S. Consulates in China, it is interesting to consider the trends of visas issued by the Consulates and the Embassy in Beijing (see Tables ~2 and ~3~. As might be expected, the Embassy has been issuing by far the largest proportion TABLE 5-1 Number of Visas Issued to PRO Students and Scholars, 1979-1987 Year J-1 Visas F-1 Visas Total 1979 807 523 1,330 1980 1,986 2,338 4,324 1981 3,066 2,341 5,407 1982 3,327 1,153 4,480 1983 3,328 1,003 4,331 1984 4,420 1,677 6,097 1985 6,912 3,001 9,913 1986 7,673 5,038 12,711 1987 (fiscal) 8,179 5,235 13,414 Total 39,698 22,309 62,007 NOTE: The use of fiscal year for 1987 excludes the last three months of 1987, but double counts the same three months for 1986. The net effect on the total is insignificant. SOURCE: 1979-1986: Consular reports, U.S. Department of State. 1987: Visa Office, U.S. Department of State, Washington, D.C.

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS TABLE 5-2 Number of J-1 Visas Issued by Each U.S. Embassy and Consulate in China, 1979-1986 Year Total Beijing Shanghai Guangshou Shenyang Chengdu 1979807807-- -- --- 19801,9861,93045 11 --- 19813,0662,631366 69 --- 19823,3272,404734 189 --- 19833,3282,297812 219 --- 19844,4203,1771,011 213 19- 19856,9124,3151,809 515 2667 19867,6734,2612,079 565 402366 NOTE: Figures begin with opening of Embassies and Consulates. SOURCE: Record of issued visas. TABLE 5-3 Number of F-1 Visas Issued by Each U.S. Embassy and Consulate in China, 1979-1986 YearTotalBeijingShanghai Guangshou Shenyang Chengdu 1979 523 523 -- -- -- - 1980 2,338 994 679 665 -- - 1981 2,341 721 1,079 541 -- - 1982 1,153 319 551 283 -- - 1983 1,003 383 419 201 -- - 1984 1,677 704 642 304 27 - 1985 3,001 1,405 1,002 461 126 7 1986 5,038 1,942 2,019 821 206 50 NOTE: Figures begin with opening of Embassies and Consulates. SOURCE: Record of issued tribal. 89 of J-1 visas, while most of the F-1 visas were issued by the Consulates. With the exception of a very small decline in 1984 in Guangzhou, all Consulates showed a steady increase in the number of J-1 visas issued. In the case of F-1 visas, the fluctuations were much more evident. As local areas are encouraged to arrange for their own J-1 students and scholars, the number of visas issued by the Consulates should continue to increase, with the new Consulates in Shenyang and Cheng~u showing the most rapid growth. Unless China introduces restrictions on F-1 visas, these too should show a more rapid increase

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90 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA outside of Beijing. In other words, whether the total number of visas issued in China increases or decreases, the proportion issued by the Embassy would probably decline. An examination of the changes that have occurred in the finan- cial support for J-1 students and scholars over the years is extremely revealing (see Tables 5-4 and ~5~. As the number of students and scholars increased, so naturally did the funding, with some half a billion U.S. dollars being spent from aD sources in the course of the seven years under review. More striking, however, is the extent of the internal changes in the funding. While In absolute numbers the amount of funding from the Chinese government increased almost every year, there has been a drastic decrease in the share it pro- vides (down from 54 percent in 1979 to 17 percent in 1985) and a corresponding increase in the support provided by American univer- sities (up from 18 to 57 percent). The funding shift is even more dramatic for continuing students and scholars-in 1985 the Chinese government contributed only 12 percent of their funding.2 Once in this country, and encouraged by their government, Chinese scholars and students quickly become adept at finding sources of funds from U.S. universities and other institutions. To some extent their suc- cess in this regard demonstrates an ability to compete against both domestic and other foreign students, but they also have an advan- tage not available to others. Although small in percentage terms, large amounts of money have been spent by U.S. foundations (Asia Foundation, Ford Foundation, Luce Foundation, and others) to sup- port Chmese students and scholars. In other words, for the Chinese the competition for academic funds is not a zero-sum game; more than likely the money allocated to support the Chinese would not have been spent on students from any other country. Of course, it should be kept in round that most foreign students cannot rely on their governments for support and must use their own funds or seek subsidies Tom U.S. universities, so that the Chinese experience is simply approaching the norm. Available data also permits us to approximate expenditures from 2A Chinese report that from 1979 through 1984 Beijing spent US$116 million to send students abroad to all countries (CD, Nov. 30, 1984, p. 1) seems somewhat low when compared with the US$97 million spent in the United States for the same years, as shown in Table 5-4. The difference may be explained, in part, by the higher tuition costs in the United States, definitional differences, and conversion factors from yuan to dollars.

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS TABLE 5-4 Financial Support by Source for PRC J-1 Students and Scholars, 1979-1985 (US$ in thousands) 91 Source of Funds1979198019811982198319841985 Total PRC government3,9687,72915,01117,00625,96727,62322,280 119,584 Personal funds1877891,9822,5475,3538,83212,013 31,703 U.S. government5501,4902,5863,2984,4995,0005,295 22,718 U.S. university1,3546,48717,11724,98838,58453,62176,423 218,574 U.S. foundation2638141,0031,1131,8002,3143,151 10,458 U.S. corporation1732557602506343758 2,815 International organization702036066361,2331,1611,140 5,049 Other9831,'7252,9514,5826,2859,43612,220 38,182 Total7,39219,26941,81354,77284,227108,330133,280 449,083 Number of students and scholars for whom data on finances were available8082,235 Percentage of total 79 82 4,5205,8028,2289,87611,185 8183848687 NOTE: Dollar amounts were raised proportionately to adjust for the 15 to 20 percent for whom financial data were not available. Comparable information is not available for those on F-1 visas. SOURCE: USIA data tapes. TABLE 5-5 Percentage Distribution of Sources of Financial Support for PRC J-1 Students and Scholars in All Categories, 1979-1985 Source of Funds 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 PRC government 54 40 36 31 31 25 17 Personal funds 3 4 5 5 6 8 9 U.S. government 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 U.S. university 18 34 41 46 46 49 57 U.S. foundation 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 U.S. corporation -- -- 1 1 1 -- 1 International organization 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Other 13 9 7 8 7 9 9 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 NOTE: The symbol "--" indicates a value less than 0.5 percent. SOURCE: USIA data tapes.

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92 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA TABLE 5-6 Average Annual Expenditure per PRO J-1 Student or Scholar Number in Dollars U.S. with Amount Spent per Student Year J-1 Visas (USS thousande) or Scholar 1979 1,025 7,392 7,200 1980 2,720 19,269 7,100 1981 5,568 41,813 7,500 1982 6,985 54,772 7,800 1983 9,779 84,227 8,600 1984 11,505 108,330 9,400 1985 12,899 133,280 10,300 SOURCE: First column, from Table 5-27; Second column, from Table 5-4. all sources per J-1 student and scholar (see Table 5-6~. The rea- sonableness and consistency of the resulting figures can be seen as providing an independent validation for the calculated number of J-1 students in the United States. There are no surprises in the geographic distribution of the stu- dents and scholars who come to the United States (see Table 5-7~. In 1985 34 percent of the J-1 visa holders were from Beijing and 15 percent from Shanghai; of the F-1 visa holders, again 34 percent were from Beijing but a much larger proportion, 26 percent, were from Shanghai and 13 percent were from Guangdong Province, pri- marily from its capital, Guangzhou. The reason for F-1 students going abroad in large numbers from the coastal provinces of south and central China is found in recent history. The large number of immigrants from these regions in the last part of the nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth centuries now provide succeeding gen- erations with many well-to-do relatives in the United States willing to support their education. With incomes on the rise, there are now families in China itself (especially in the large port cities) who have accumulated adequate savings to send an offspring abroad. For privately sponsored students, the location of the U.S Embassy or Consulates in their city would also greatly facilitate the visa-filing process. In general, it is safe to say that the overwhelming propor- tion of all students and scholars coming to this country (and going to other countries as weld is from the large urban municipalities, which

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS 93 have not only the better key universities, but also a better-educated adult (parental) populace. Although still prominent, the bunching phenomenon is not quite as great when we look at the geographic areas of scholars and students by place of birth rather than place of residence. The reason, of course, is that the magnet of Beijing, Shanghai, Guallgzhou, and other large municipalities has been functioning for decades, first drawing the parents, but even if not the parents, then their most-talented offspring through the colleg~entrance examinations. What this means is that foreign education will only accentu- ate the already existing concentration of the highly trained man- power (along with other economic and capital resources) in the large metropolitan areas of China's eastern provinces. Because of defi- ciencies in the primary and secondary school systerrrs, young peo- ple from the interior still find it difficult to compete for the limited slots available in domestic four-year universities especially the more prominent key institutions and rural youth find it to be an almost insurmountable hurdle. At this stage In China's development, how- ever, and juxtaposing her goals and priorities with the shortage of trained professionals, Beijing cannot yet afford the ~luxury" of giving much more than lip service to educational egalitarianism. TABLE 5-7 Percentage Distribution of PRO Students and Scholars by Place of Residence in China, 1983-1985 1983 1984 1985 Place of Residence F-1 J-1 F-1 J-1 F-1 J-1 in China Visas Visas Visas Visas Visas Visas Beijing 25 37 26 32 34 34 Guangdong 17 5 15 4 13 6 Hube 2 5 2 5 2 4 Jiangsu 4 5 3 7 3 5 Shanghai 33 14 32 17 26 15 Sichuan 1 5 -- 4 4 All other provinces 18 29 20 31 21 32 Total (N) 100100100100100 100 (947)(3,150)(1,491)(3,330)(2,679) (6,026) NOTE: The symbol "--" indicates a value less than 0.5 percent. Percentage of missing data excluded from totals is 2 percent or less for all years. S OURCE: Records of issued visas.

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94 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA J-1 AND F-1 STUDENTS Table 5-8 clearly shows the very different trends between stu- dents with J-1 and F-1 visas. While it took several years to mount the official exchange of students (most of the early arrivals being scholars), once the opportunity became available, thousands of young people quickly found the way and the means to get into U.S. univer- sities on their own. The extremely large number of F-1 visas issued since 1985 is somewhat surprising in view of Beij~ng's stated desire to eliminate most of the privately sponsored graduate education abroad. Financial support sources for the J-1 students, as derived from USIA data tapes, were discussed above, but there is also some fi- nancial assistance information available from the visa data, which permits some comparisons between the J-1 and F-1 students (see Table 5-9~. The figures in the table require no explanation, with the exception of the extremely high increase in 1985 in the "other or a combination of sources category. The high proportion in this category is due to the practice of combining the funding from sev- eral sources reflecting experience that took several years to acquire. TABLE 5-8 Number of Visas Issued to PRO Students, 1979-1986 . . J-1 Visas F-1 Visas Year No. %No. 96Total 1979 145 22523 78668 1980 336 132,338 872,674 1981 680 232,341 773,021 1982 950 451,153 552,103 1983 1,572 611,003 392,575 1984 1,783 521,677 483,460 1985 2,507 463,001 545,508 1986 (3,069) 385,038 62(8,107) 1987 (fiscal) (3,272) 385,235 62(8,507) Total 14,314 3922,309 6136,623 NOTE: The use of fiscal year for 1987 excludes the last three months of 1987, but double counts the same three months for 1986. The net effect on the total is insignificant. SOURCES: F-1 visas from consular reports, U.S. Department of State. J-1 visas, 1979-1985, from USIA data tapes; 1986 and 1987, estimates made by distributing reported totals by applying the amperage ratio of student J-ls to total J-1e for the preceding three years.

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS 95 For the J-ls the most common combination is U.S. university and Chinese government; for the F-ls it is U.S. university with Chinese family, Chinese work unit, and U.S. relative, in that order. Tables 5-10, 5-11, and 5-12 show some significant differences and trends in the personal characteristics of both officially and privately sponsored students. During the early years of the post-Mao exchanges, China had few young, capable students to send abroad, but there were older, more experienced scholars (many of them trained earlier overseas) looking for opportunities to spend a year or two abroad to catch up with developments that had taken place in their fields during the isolation years of the Cultural Revolution. Now the average age for the holders of J-1 visas is significantly lower, with about two-thirds TABLE 5-9 Percentage Distribution of PRO J-1 and F-1 Students by Stated Source of Financial Support, 1983-1985 Year Visa Issued - 1983 Stated Source of Financial Support Visas 1984 F-1 J-1 F-1 J-1 Visas Visas Visas 1985 F-1 J-1 Visas Visas Self, savings, or family in China Chinese government or work unit U.S. relatives or private individual U.S. government U.S. university U.S. foundation/ philanthropy International organization 0 Other or combination 1 46 2 4 74 19 76 4 74 9 0 1 0 1 12 36 16 57 0 4 5 1 4 22 43 3 o 19 42 2 2 __ 1 of sources 11 5 5 8 33 30 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 (N) (942) (2,1313 (1,502) (1,145) (2,388) (2,436) NOTE: Number of individuals missing from totals in less than 5 percent, except for F-1 students in 1985, who account for 12 percent. The symbol "--" indicates a value less than 0.5 percent. SOURCE: Records of issued visas.

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96 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA falling into the 20-29 age group; and, since many have also spent a year or two working, they most likely fall in the upper half of that age cohort (Table ~10~. One might well have expected students holding F-1 visas to be younger, but in fact for two of the three years for which data are available, the reverse was true. Between 1980 and 1985 about one-fifth of the government-spon- sored students were women (Table ~11)-only slightly lower than the proportion of women in Chinese institutions of higher education. Predictably, the discrepancy in the male-female ratio among students with F-1 visas is not nearly as great. When it comes to fields of study, there is a significant difference between men and women students with J-1 visas. Whereas most of the men are enrobed in engineering and the physical sciences, the largest proportion of women choose American studies, library and archival science, and health sciences, in that order.3 While there is no significant difference in the ages of the J-1 and F-1 students and scholars, there ~ a large discrepancy in the marital status of the two groups (Table 5-12~. Marriage and family ties are presumably paramount considerations in making the decision to return or remain in the United States, so that it is probably easier for married individuals to receive approval for foreign study; thus the large proportion of married J-ls. On the other hand, it is safe to assume that the overwhelming proportion of F-1 females are both young and single. Since the presence of a spouse undoubtedly influences the return decision, it is surprising to see an extremely large increase in J-2 and F-2 visas, which are issued to farruly members (mostly spouses) of Chinese students. Prior to 1984, the number of these visas issued each year was below 100 for both categories. In 1984, however, 318 J-2 and 94 F-2 visas were issued; in 1985, 2,030 J-2s and 244 F- 2s; and in 1986, 2,022 J-2s and 559 F-2s. These increases occurred despite some clear statements by Chinese officials that the issuance of permits for spouses to apply for visas to join their student mates would be drasticaDy restricted. Moreover, once they arrive in the United States, many of the spouses become students in their own right. 3Lampton, A Rclatioruhip Restored, p. 188. Although data are for the 1979- 1984 period, there is no reason to expect any major changes since then.

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97 Go - be :^ in $ P4 3 ho L. U) 1 V o o ._ ._ ._ ho v U. a, Cal Go m ~ 00 L. oS ~ Go <~ 1 <- co a, ~ a, ~ ~O CD CO~ ~ O ~ en - CD ~ ~ O ~ c9 en0 0 ~ US - - O ~ ~ 1 1 0 CD CO ~ ~o - 00 ~ ~O co en ~ US 00 To DO ~ ~O ~ - = ~ ~ 0 - 0 en CD en ~ ~ - - - O O ~ 0 0 ~ en ~0 0 of ~ en 0 cO - 1 0~ - 0 ~ . Cal ~ en 0 ~ 0~ - - 0 0 en co ~O L' O ~ ~ ~ 05 ,~ o~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e~=cr,=~ ~ L. ~ ~ ~ ~ C. O O O O ~ O O O O O 3 o o, o o C) . . _ a _ o :^ a~ oo ~, CO oo a) o . _ ~ o - o ~C a~ a, . L. ,~o, o . - P. to U. ~ ~o .. . ct V -C a~ ~ o ~ o ~o . a' P. C~ o L. o. . CO oo . .

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS 103 robed in PhD programs, the annual number of degrees that they earn should continue to increase for a number of years. In connection with the distribution of students by field at all aca- demic levels, it is interesting to note one striking (but not surprising) similarity between domestic college students and those going abroad. In both instances they tend to avoid majors that will take them out of the cities and into less hospitable environments. Thus, even though TABLE 5-18 PRC Citizens Awarded Science and Engineering Doctorates by Major Field Year of Doctorate Tot al Major Field 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1980-86 Total, science and engineering 1 - 2 8 Total, sciences Physical sciences Physics and astronomy Chemistry Earth, atmospheric and marine sciences Life sciences Agricultural sciences Biological sciences Mathematics Computer/information sciences Social sciences 39 90 137 277 1 5 23 60 95 184 1 1 10 25 52 89 - - 7 19 42 68 1 1 3 6 10 21 3 2 1 6 10 8 1 9 7 13 20 15 17 21 2 19 42 6 11 2 4 Total, engineering 1 - 1 3 16304293 Chemical - - - - -325 Civil - - - - -224 Electrical - - - 1 571125 Mechanical - - - 2 1101023 Material science - - - - 52310 Total, nonscience and engineering - 2 - 1 1-26 Total, all fields 1 2 2 9 4090139285 1L T ~ ~1~ TO ~ ~, . low An: ~ nere are some discrepancies between the annual figures and the totals reported in the source. Of the 152,488 doctorates awarded in S&E by U.S. universities between 1970 and 1979, 36,925 (24 percent) went to non-U.S. citizens; of the 96,954 such degrees awarded between 1980 and 1986, 29,734 (31 percent) went to non-U.S. citizens. . . . SOURCE: Statistics compiled from Science and Engineering Doctorates: 1960-86 (Washington, D.C.: National Science Foundation, 1988). NSF 88-309, pp. 140-150.

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104 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA TABLE 5-19 Most Common States of Residence in the United States for PRO J-1 Students, 1983-1985 (percent) State of Residence Year Visa Issued While Studying in U.S. 1983 1984 1985 New York California Massachusetts Pennsylvania Illinois Ohio Indiana Michigan Texas New Jersey All other states Total (N) 14 12 6 6 5 4 4 6 13 13 10 9 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 36 5 6 37 38 100 100 100 (2,190) (1,199) (2,524) SOURCE: Records of issued visas. the demand for college slots is much greater than their supply, Chi- nese planners and university administrators complain that "depart- ments of hydrology, agriculture, geology, mining, and petroleum and mineral exploration still find it difficult to enroll enough students."4 Avoidance of these majors is just as evident among students going abroad. California and New York have by far the largest proportions of both J-1 and F-1 students (Tables 5-19 and 5-20), although they generally attend different types of colleges and universities. With cost undoubtedly a serious consideration, most students choose public rather than private universities (Tables 5-21 and ~22), Columbia University being the only private institution with large numbers of both J-1 and F-1 students. 4Li Xing, "Who Will Go to College?" CD, Aug. 21, 1987, p. 5.

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS TABLE 5-20 Most Common States of Residence in the United States for PRO F-1 Students, 1983-1985 (percent) State of Residence Year Visa Issued While Studying in U.S. 1983 1984 1985 California New York Texas Illinois Massachusetts Pennsylvania Ohio Michigan Washington New Jersey Utah All other states 24 20 18 20 6 5 5 2 3 3 2 3 2 27 20 17 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 26 2 2 2 33 Total 100 100 100 (N) (938) (1,517) (2,727) SOURCE: Records of issued visas. TABLE 5-21 U.S. Colleges and Universities with the Largest Number of PRC J-1 Students Enrolling, 1983-1985 College or University Number University of Michigan Purdue University University of Pittsburgh Columbia University University of Minnesota University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana Cornell University University of California, Los Angeles Ohio State University Stanford University 152 117 111 109 108 104 101 93 93 86 SOURCE: Records of issued irises. Figures do not necessarily reflect actual enrollment. 105

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106 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA TABLE 5-22 U.S. Colleges and Universities with the Largest Number of PRO F-1 Students Enrolling, 1983-1985 College or University Number City University of New York. City College City University of New York, Queens College Hunter College Columbia University University of California, Los Angeles San Francisco State University University of Maryland, College Park University of Houston LaGuardia Community College The Loop College (two-year) 117 91 90 88 74 67 60 57 57 56 SOURCE: Records of issued primal. Figures do not necessarily reflect actual enrollment. J-1 VISITING SCHOLA1IS Visiting scholars make up the largest percentage of Chinese ex- change visitors with J-1 visas. They do not come to the United States to enroll in specific degree programs, but rather to conduct research and study on their own. In general, they must have an established reputation in China or a relatively long and successful academic ca- reer or research experience when selected for the program. Because of these prerequisites, the characteristics of visiting scholars are quite different from students with J-1 visas. With established reputations, J-1 visiting scholars tend to be much older than the students; until 1983 there were few under the age of 30 (Table 5-23~. This is changing, however, and in 1985, 11 percent were 20 to 29 years of age. While most still fall in the 40 to 49 years of age cohort, between 1979 and 1985 the percentage in this category steadily decreased and the percentage of scholars between 30 and 39 years of age has steadily increased. In fact, the new regulations state specifically that 50 should be the age limit for advanced studies personnel and visiting scholars, with some possible exceptions for full professors going abroad for short periods. Although the percentage of female scholars has been increasing since 1979, it is still low, closely paralleling both the proportion and the increase

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS TABLE 5-23 Percentage Distribution of PRO J-1 Research Scholars Entering a New Program, by Age, 1979-1985 107 Year Program Began Age 1980 1981 1982 1983 19841985 Under 20 years1 -- -- -- -- 00 20 to 29 years1 1 1 2 3 611 30 to 39 years25 15 14 15 18 2123 40 to 49 years66 65 65 60 54 47~44 50 to 59 years6 13 12 17 18 1917 60 years and older1 4 8 6 6 86 Total100 (N)(631) 100100100100100100 (2,036)(1,694)(1,861)(2,188)(3,049) NOTE: The symbol "--" indicates a Value less than 0.5 percent. SOURCE: USIA data tapes. TABLE 5-24 Percentage Distribution of PRC J-1 Research Scholars Entering a New Program, by Occupation in China, 1979-1985 Year Program Began Occupation 1979 198019811982198319841985 Government 12 ~71012118 University teaching 69 757471716973 or research University graduate student 2 111113 Business -- 112222 Other organizations 17 141615131613 Total 100 100100100100100100 (N) t631) (1,232)(2,036)(1,694)(1,861)(2,188)(3,049) NOTE: The symbol "--" indicates a value less than 0.5 percent. SOURCE: USIA data tapes. for female students with J-1 visas (see Table 5-11). In terms of their background, the vast majority of visiting scholars have been teaching at universities, although a significant percentage have been from government institutions, which would include the various academies of sciences and research institutes under the production ministries (Table 5-24~.

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108 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA The J-1 research scholars are selected, approved, and, one can say, employed by the Chinese government, but who pays for their studies in the United States? As in the case of J-1 students, in 1985 ahnost half of the funding came from U.S. universities, with only 23 percent supported by the PRC (Table ~25~. As in the case of stu- clents, since 1979 there has been a decreasing trend ~ the proportion of funding by the Chinese government and a corresponding increase in support by American universities. Taken together, the two sources accounted for 71 percent of the funding for J-1 scholars in 1985, a decrease from 83 percent in 1979. Chinese visiting scholars who come to the United States tend to represent a much narrower range of specializations (Table 5-26) than do the students. Over the years about thre~quarter~ of the schol- ars have been doing work in engineering, physical sciences, health sciences, and life sciences, with small proportions scattered in other fields. This concentration of visiting scholars is quite predictable, with the possible exception of the large proportion in the health sci- ences. It is possible to argue that the transition from an emphasis on barefoot doctors during the Cultural Revolution to having some 19 percent of the scholars in the United States doing advanced re- search in the medical field was too rapid and more responsive to the desires of individuals in the upper echelons of the medical profession than to the current needs of the society. However, Chinese medical TABLE 5-25 Percentage Distribution of Funds Spent on PRC J-1 Research Scholars, by Source of Funds, 1979-1985 Source of Funds 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 PRC government 64 51 44 42 37 30 23 Personal funds 2 4 4 4 5 6 8 U.S. government 1 6 5 7 7 7 7 U.S. university 19 30 36 37 39 42 48 U.S. foundation 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 U.S. corporation 0 -- -- -- -- -- - International organization 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 Other 9 6 7 8 8 10 10 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 NOTE: The symbol "--" indicates a value less than 0.5 percent. SOURCE: USER data tapes.

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS 109 TABLE 5-26 Percentage Distribution of PRO J-1 Research Scholars Entering a New Program, by Field, 1979-1985 Year Program Began Field of Study 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 3 4 O O 3 2 29 34 o 9 5 O __ 36 2 2 2 32 3 1 25 11 12 2 1 3 4 1 __ 13 4 3 2 3 2 26 19 17 3 2 24 1 19 _ -- - - - - 1 1 2 2 o 9 7 35 3 Agriculture 2 2 American studies 0 0 Architecture Business management Computer science Education Engineering English as a second language (ESL) Health sciences Humanities Law Library and archival science Life sciences Mathematics Physical sciences Social sciences Other or not stated 10 5 25 3 1 11 10 3 22 4 4 1 9 3 21 22 5 1 2 10 3 17 1 10 2 21 5 2 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 (N) (631) (1,232) (2,036) (1,694) (1,861) (2,188) (3,049) - NOTE: The symbol "--" indicates a value les$ than 0.5 percent. SOURCE: USIA data tapes. sciences are strong and are credited with a number of breakthroughs that have received international recognition; the 19 percent of the scholars who are In the health sciences translates to fewer than 600 individual; and the medical schools in China are training large num- bers of personnel to staff the health facilities that serve the daily needs of the public. ESTD!,IATING THE NUMBER OF STUDENTS AND SCHOLARS IN THE UNITED STATES Despite the considerable volume of statistics presented above, the much sought-after figure for the number of Chinese students and scholars In the United States in any given year continues to elude us, as it does the Chinese. What follows, then, is an effort to combine some of the hard data with unpressions, anecdotal material, and

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110 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA TABLE 5-27 Estimated Number of PRC Students and Scholars in the United States 1979-1985 Est. Total J-1 VisaF-1 Visa in the Est.Est. United States NewCont. Total New Cont. Total by Year 1979891134 1,025 523 0 523 1,548 19801,854866 2,720 2,338 502 2,840 5,560 19813,2102,358 5,568 2,341 2,631 4,972 10,540 19823,0783,907 6,985 1,153 4,254 5,407 12,378 19833,8825,897 9,779 1,003 4,188 5,191 12,931 19844,6316,874 11,505 1,677 3,553 5,230 16,735 19856,3406,559 12,899 3,001 3,478 6,479 19,378 NOTE: J-1 figures are based on USIA data tapes. They differ from those in Table 5-1 because USIA data are based on program years, while consular reports are for calendar years. The number of continuing F-1 students is estimated on the basis of "planned length of stay" entries on visa applications and is therefore a gross approximation. perhaps common sense to come up with a usable estimate, or at least a point of departure for those who may wish to make alternate assumptions. According to statistics assembled by the Department of State, we know that between 1979 and 1987 the United States issued about 62,000 J-1 and F-1 visas to citizens of the PRO (see Table 5-1~. What we do not know is exactly how many of the recipients of these visas are in the country now or were here in any given year. Nevertheless, by separately analyzing the J-1 visas (responsibility of the USTA) and the F-1 visas (responsibility of the INS) some ballpark estimates can be made. Since the USTA requires students and scholars holding J-1 visas to fib out a new lAP-66 form during each year that they remain in the United States, two separate numbers are available: one for new students and one for continuing students. By simply adding the two figures together, it is possible to obtain the total number of J-1 visa holders in the country in any specific year (see Table 5-27~. Although these are, theoretically, the most accurate figures available, unfor- tunately they are not available after 1985. From Table 5-27 it can be seen that the number of J-ls increased rapidly during the early years (more than doubling from 1979 to 1980), but slowed sharply once large numbers of students and scholars started to return to

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS 111 China. In 1985 there were approximately 13,000 Chinese students and scholars in the United States with J-1 visas. Since we know the total number of J-! visas issued and the number of J-1 students and scholars in the United States, then we must obviously know how many returned to China during each of the years under discussion. Referring to Table 5-27 again, subtracting the number of continuing students and scholars in a given year from the previous year's total, we obtain the following number of returnees: 1980: 159 1981: 362 1982: 1,661 1983: 1,088 1984: 2,905 1985: 4,946 In other words, from 1979 through 1985, about 1 1,000 (11,121) indi- viduals with J-1 visas returned to China. Although the method does not exclude from the totals individuals who adjusted their status in the United States, these numbers have been very small and can be disregarded.5 What cannot be disregarded, however, is that in addi- tion to students and scholars, the J-1 visa holders include teachers (below the college level), trainees (usually sponsored by U.S. business or foundations), nonmatriculated visiting scholars, and other indi- viduals who come here on a variety of exchange programs. The USIA estimates that this "others category accounts for about 15 percent of the J-1 visas. Adjusting the 11,121 for the "other" category (autos matically excluded from Chinese statistics on returnees), we reduce the number of J-1 returnees to about 9,500. The real ambiguity starts after 1985. Although we know that in 1986 and 1987 approximately 16,000 Chinese students and scholars entered the United States on J-1 visas (see Table 5-1), we do not have the USTA data tapes that would make it possible to determine how many of those already in the country continued their education and how many returned to China after 1985. We do know, however, that despite a growing tendency to delay their return, many thousands 5According to the INS, the number of individuals converting from J-1 visas to permanent resident status was as follows: 1983: 43; 1984: 20; 1985: 50; 1986: 53; and 1987: 64.

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112 CHINESE STUDENTS IN AMERICA TABLE 5-28 Summary of Estimates as of January 1988 Students and Scholars J-1 Visas F-1 VisasTotal Visas issued to students and scholars (1979-1987)34,000 22,00056,000 Enrolled in degree program or doing research 21,000 7,000- 28,000 Legally or illegally changed status to remain in U.S.500 8,0008,500 Returned to China 12,500 7,00019,500 NOTE: See text for a discussion of sources of data and assumptions that produced these figures. Figures exclude trainees, teachers, and international visitors with J-1 vines. Of students, scholars, and short-term visitors continued to return to China during the two years. Taking all these facts into consideration, it is estimated that at the end of 1987 there were about 21,000 Chinese students and scholars In the United States with J-1 visas.6 Since there ~ no reliable way of keeping track of the activities of F-1 students once they come to the United States, any estimate of the number of privately sponsored Chinese students in this country is questionable. The figures in Table 5-26 are based on the replanned length of stay" information, which ~ entered by each individual on the visa application. As we know, however, for most F-1 students these entries are hypothetical. Although most indicate that they plan to remain in the United States for a minimum of two years and many plan to stay as long as four or five,7 in fact, a large propor 6If we reduce the 16,000 who entered this country in 1986-1987 with J-1 visas by 15 percent to eliminate the "others" in this category, we get a rounded 14,000 students and scholars. Reducing it further by an estimated 6,000 J-ls who returned to China in 1986 and 1987 (elightly lower than the average in the preceding two years), we are left with 8,000 students and scholars who, when added to the 13,000 who were already here in 1985, gives us a total of 21,000 students and scholars with J-1 visas. 7In 1985, for example, 37 percent of the F-1 visa applicants indicated a desire to spend 13 to 14 months in the United States, 21 percent planned to remain 25 to 36 months, and 20 percent indicated that they will stay 37 to 48 months.

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STATISTICS ON EXCHANGE PARTICIPANTS 113 talon extent] their schooling or adjust their status to remain in this country indefinitely. In other words, when considering F-ls, a triple distinction has to be made between those who returned to China, those stiD in school, and those who remained in the United States, either by legally changing their status (before or after graduation) or hiding as undocumented residents.8 The inclusion of F-ls in Table 5-27 is therefore only illustrative and a point of departure for the following, carefully considered yet speculative estimates: Of the 22,000 F-1 visas issued to Chinese students between 1979- and 1987, approximately on~th~rd returned home, one-third are still in school, and one-th~rd have managed to remain in the United States in a nonstudent capacity. All of the above conjectures are summarized in Table 5-28. To attempt more precision would be not only presumptuous but foolhardy. 8According to the INS, the number of F-ls who have adjusted to permanent resident status was: 1983: 1,163; 1984: 607; 1985: 739; 1986: 825; and 1987: 744, for a total of 4,078. By way of comparison, during the same time period, 7,648 individuals with F-1 visas from Taiwan adjusted to permanent statue.