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SPACE SCIENCE IN THE
TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY:
IMPERATIVES FOR THE
DECADES 1995 TO 2015
OVERVIEW
Report of the Study Steering Group
Space Science Board
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1988
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National Academy Press · 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. . Washington, D. C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the
Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the
councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering,
and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report
were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to
procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the
National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a priorate, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society
of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific Ad engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon
the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has
a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical
matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers.
It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with
the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government.
The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at
meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior
achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White ~ president of the National Academy
of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the
examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional
charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to
identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president
of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences
in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's
purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the
principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the
scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both
Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are
chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
Support for this project was provided by Contract NASW 3482 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 87-43329
ISBN 0-309-03838-3
Printed in the United States of America
First Printing, June 1988
Second Printing, May 1991
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N AT I O N AL RES E ARC H CO U NC I L
2101 CON5T.ITUT1ON AVENUE
OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN
W^SHI>JCTON, D. C. X)d18
Dr. James Fletcher
Administrator
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Washington, DC 20546
Dear Dr. Fletcher:
I am pleased to transmit Space Science
Twentv-
First Century: Imperatives for the Decades l99S to 201S, a
report of the Space Science Board of the National Research
Council.
The report represents an impressive ef fort by a large
number of scientists whose interests and expertise span the
vast extent of space science. The Board charged the parti-
cipants in the project to think broadly and creatively, and
the product demonstrates clearly that they took this charge
to heart. The several volumes of the report present a
varied and exciting picture of opportunities in the space
sciences in the future.
I want to note two aspects of the report--and of the
view of space sciences presented in it--both of which are
considered in the document itself but which bear repeating
here. Any portrayal of the future of space science presup-
poses successful solutions to the severe problems that our
nation's space science program faces today. The Challenger
accident, coupled with our over-reliance on manned launch
capabilities, has, to all intents and purposes, crippled our
space science program by depriving us of access to space.
The lessons of the past few years are painfully clear, and
it is to be hoped that they will lead to a more balanced and
resilient space program in the near and longer-term future.
Particularly in light of current uncertainties, the
findings and recommendations contained in these volumes
probably constitute, in aggregate, a much larger space
science program than can be realistically anticipated in the
period of time examined in the study. While they are aware
of this, the Board and study group do believe that the
recommendations should be pursued at the appropriate time.
There is no attempt in the report to establish priorities
among the recommendations. As noted in the preface to the
Overview volume, the Board felt that setting priorities
"would not be appropriate at this time when we do not have
the benefit of the knowledge we expect to gain from major
missions now planned but not yet begun."
nlE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL IS THE PR INCIPAL OPER^I INC SCENT OF DlE NOTIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AND THE NATIONAL A~E' OF EN~EERINC
TO SERVE GOVERNMENT AND OTHER OR<;ANiZ^llONS.
· -—
lI1
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I commend the report to you as a stimulating and chal-
lenging description of the opportunities that lie before us
in the space sciences. ~
Yours sin ~ ely,
rank Press
Chairman
1V
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STEERING GROUP
Thomas M. Donahue, University of Michigan, Chairman
Don Anderson, California Institute of Technology
D. James Baker, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc.
Robert Berliner, Pew Scholars Program, Yale University
Bernard Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A. G. W. Cameron, Harvard College Observatory
George Field, Center for Astrophysics
Herbert Friedman, Naval Research Laboratory
DonaId Hunten, University of Arizona
Francis Johnson, University of Texas at Dallas
Robert Kretsinger, University of Virginia
Stamatios Krimigis, Applied Physics laboratory
Eugene Levy, University of Arizona
Frank B. McDonald, NASA Headquarters
John Naugle, Chevy Chase, Maryland
Joseph M. Reynolds, The Louisiana State University
Frederick Scarf, TRW Systems Park
Scott Swisher, Michigan State University
David Usher, Corned University
James Van Allen, University of Iowa
Rainer Weiss, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dean P. Kastel, Study Director
Ceres M. Rangos, Secretary
or
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TASK GROUP ON PLANETARY AND LUNAR
EXP[O:RATION
Donald Hunten, University of Arizona, Chairman
Arden Albee, California Institute of Technology
David C. Black, NASA Headquarters
Jacques Blamont, CNES
William Boynton, University of Arizona
Robert A. Brown, Space Telescope Science Institute
A. G. W. Cameron, Center for Astrophysics
Thomas Donahue, University of Michigan
Larry W. Esposito, University of Colorado
Ronald Greeley, Arizona State University
Eugene Levy, University of Arizona
Harold Masursky, U.S. Geological Survey
David Morrison, University of Hawaii at Manoa
George Wetherill, Carnegie Institution of Washington
Paul F. Uhlir, Staff Offlcer
Anne L. Pond, Secretary
·.
All
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TASK G1tOUP ON SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS
Frederick Scarf, TRW, Chairman
Roger Me Bonnet, Agence Spati~e Europeene
Guenter E. Brueckner, Naval Research Laboratory
Alexander Dessler, Marshall Space Flight Center
Thomas Holder, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Sta~natios Krim~g~s, Johns Hopkins Universtiy
Louis Lanzerotti, Bell Laboratories
John Leibacher, National Solar Observatory
Robert MacQueen, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Car} E. McIlwam, University of California, San Diego
Andrew Nagy, University of Michigan
Eugene N. Parker, University of Chicago
George Paulikas, Aerospace Corporation
Christopher Russell, University of California at Los Angeles
James Van Allen, University of Iowa
Richard C. Hart, Staff Offlcer
Carmela J. Chamberlain, Secretary
· - ~
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TAS1[ GROUP ON ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
Bernard Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chairman
James Roger Angel, University of Arizona
Jacques Beckers, NOAO Advanced Development Program
Andrea Dupree, Center for Astrophysics
Carl E. Fichtel, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
George Field, Center for Astrophysics
Riccardo Giacconi, Space Telescope Science Institute
Jonathan Grindiay, Center for Astrophysics
Martin Harwit, Cornell University
Frank Low, University of Arizona
Frank McDonald, NASA Headquarters
Dietrich MuDer, University of Chicago
M~noru Oda, ISAS
Klaus Pinks, Max-Pl~c:k Institute for Plasma Physics
Kenneth A. Pounds, University of Leicester
Irwin Shapiro, Center for Astrophysics
Susan Wyckoff, Arizona State University
Richard C. Hart, Stag Offlcer
Carmela J. Chamberlain, Secretary
ix
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TAS1[ GROUP ON FUNDAMENTAL PHYSICS AND
CHEMISTRY
Rainer Weiss, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
CmCha~rman
Joseph M. Reynolds, The Louisiana State University,
CmChaarman
Peter Bender, University of Colorado
A. L. Beriad, University of California
RusseD Donnelly, University of Oregon
Freeman Dyson, The Institute of Advanced Study
William M. Far bank, Stanford University
Robert Hofstadter, Stanford University
George Homsy, Stanford University
James banger, University of California
John Naugle, Fairchild Space Company
Rene PeDat, CNES
Remo Ruffini, Universita di Roma
Dudiey Saville, Princeton University
John Robert SchriefFer, University of California
Dean P. K=tel, Staff Director
Ceres M. Tangos, secretary
-
x
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TASK GROUP ON LIFE SCIENCES
Scott Swisher, Michigan State University, Co-Chairman
David Usher, Corned University, Co-Chairman
Me~nrat Andreae, Florida State University
Stanley Awramik, University of California, Santa Barbara
Robert Berliner, Pew Scholars Program, Yale University
William DeCampli, Stanford Medical Center
James Ferris, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Robert Fowles, University of Utah
Andrew KnoD, Harvard University
Robert Kretsinger, University of Virginia
Lynn Margul~s, Boston University
Raymond Murray, Michigan State University
Quentin Myrvik, Wake Forest University
John Oro, University of Houston
Tobias Owen, SUNY at Stony Brook
Donald D. Turkey, Oregon Health Services University
G. Donald Whedon, International Shrine Hospital
David White, Florida State University
Richard J. Wurtm~, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Richard Young, MATSCO
Jay M. Goldberg, University of Chicago
Harold Klein, The University of Santa Clara
Joyce M. Purcell, Staff Offlcer
Judith L. Estep, Secretary
x~
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SPACE SCIENCE BOARD
Thomas M. Donahue, University of Michigan, Chairman
Philip Abelson, American Association for the Advancement of
Science
Roger D. Blandford, California Institute of Technology
Larry W. Esposito, University of Colorado
Jonathan E. Gr~ndIay, Center for Astrophysics
Donald Hall, University of Hawaii
Andrew P. Ingersoll, California Institute of Technology
William M. Kaula, NOAA
Harold Klein, The University of Santa Clara
John W. Leibacher, National Solar Observatory
Michael Mendillo, Boston University
Robert O. Pepin, University of Minnesota
Roger J. Phillips, Southern Methodist University
David Raup, University of Chicago
Christopher T. RusseD, University of California, Los Angeles
Blair D. Savage, University of Wisconsin
John A. Simpson, Enrico Fermu Institute, University of Chicago
George L. Siscoe, University of California, Loo Angeles
L. Dennis Smith, Purdue University
Darrell F. Strobel, Johns Hopkins University
Byron D. Tapley, University of Texas at Austin
Dean P. Kastel, StaffDirector
Ceres M. Rangos, Secretary
·—
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COMM[SSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS,
AND llESOUl1CES
Norma Hackerma~, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman
George F. Carrier, Harvard University
Dean E. Eastman, IBM Corporation
Marye Anne Fox, University of Texas
Gerhart EtriedIander, Brookhaven National Laboratory
Lawrence W. Funkhouser, Chevron Corporation (retired)
PhiBip A. Griffiths, Duke University
J. Ross Macdonald, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Charles J. Mank=, Oklahoma Geological Survey
Perry L. McCarty, Stanford University
Jack E. Oliver, Cornell University
Jeremiah P. Ostriker, Princeton University Observatory
William D. Phillips, MaD~nckro~t, Inc.
Denis J. Prager, MacArthur Foundation
David M. Raup, University of Chicago
Richard J. Reed, University of Washington
Robert E. Sievers, University of Colorado
Larry L. Smarr, Nations Center for Supercomput~ng
Applications
Edward C. Stone, Jr., California Institute of Technology
Karl K. Turekian, Yale University
George W. Wetherill, Carnegie Institution of Washington
Irving Wladawsky-Berger, IBM Corporation
Raphael G. Kasper, Executive Director
Lawrence E. McCray, Associate Executive Director
· -—
X111
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Preface
Early in 1984, NASA asked the Space Science Board to un-
dertake a study to determine the principal scientific issues that
the disciplines of space science would face during the period from
about 1995 to 2015. This request was made partly because NASA
expected the Space Station to become available at the beginning
of this period, and partly because the missions needed to im-
plement research strategies precariously developed by the various
committees of the board should have been launched or their de-
velopment under way by that time. A two-year study was called
for. To carry out the study the board put together task groups
on earth sciences, planetary ~d lunar exploration, solar system
space physics, astronomy and astrophysics, fundamental physics
and chemistry (relativistic gravitation and m~crogravity sciences),
and life sciences. Responsibility for the study was vested in a
steering group whose members consisted of task group chairmen
plus other senior representatives of the space science disciplines.
To the boazd's good fortune, distinguished scientists from many
countries other than the United States participated in this study.
The task groups and the steering group held four joint study
sessions beginning in the summer of 1984 and ending in January
1986. Individual task groups also scheduled workshops at other
times. The steering group met from June 16 to June 20, 1986, at
TV
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the Woods Hole Study Center of the National Academy of Sciences
to agree on the contents of the final overview report for the study.
The findings and recornrnendations of the study are published in
seven volumes: six task group reports and this overview report
of the steering group. When the study began, the steering group
encouraged the task groups to be imaginative in considering new
directions for their disciplines. The intent was to challenge the
participants to expand their horizons and to garner as many stim-
ulating ideas as possible for future enterprises In space science. In
providing this latitude for the task groups, the steering group felt
that, since it was responsible for writing the official study report,
it could not be bound initially to accept all the recommendations
and findings of the task groups. The task group reports, there-
fore, are ciassifiec] as resource documents for the steering group.
Happily, at the study's conclusion, the steering group was able to
accept nearly aD of the task group recommendations. The steer-
ing group co~runends the task group reports to the reader for an
understating of the challenges that confront the space sciences
and the insights they promise for the next century. We gratefully
acknowledge the valuable contribution made by the task group
members during this Tensile study period. The official findings
and recommendations of the study are those to be found in the
steering group's overview.
Obviously, with the delay in the space science program caused
by the Challenger accident, the period specified in the original
request by NASA (1995 to 2015) cannot be taken literally. The
steering group believes that the longer term program it recom-
mends for each discipline should logically be undertaken when the
near-term program, currently being addressed in response to the
science strategies developed by the committees of the Space Sci-
ence Board, have been unplemented, whenever that may be and
however long it takes to complete the entire agenda of science
objectives. The steering group has deliberately chosen not to un-
dertake a prioritization of its recommendations. This would not
be appropriate at this tane when we do not have the benefit of
the knowledge we expect to gain from major missions now planned
but not yet begun. We expect the committees of the Space Science
Board and internal NASA advisory groups at the appropriate time
to establish the science priorities and to recommend the proper
pace and sequence for new space science missions.
After the study had begun, Congress mandated the formation
XVI
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of a National Commission of Space to propose goals for the na-
tion's space program during the next 20 years. The commission
published its report, entitled Pioneering the Space Frontier, before
this study was completed.
Since the expertise of our study group and its parent board
is in science, it is not In our special competence to comment on
the program recommended by the commission in its entirety. We
certainly endorse its first major thrust: "Advancing our under-
stand~ng of our planet, our solar system, and the universe, and
the additional thrust of advancing technology. That part of the
commi~sion's report entitled "Advancing Science" is altogether
consonant with the recommendations of this report.
Our colleagues and partners at NASA have supported our
work fully. With their help we believe that we have prepared a sci-
entific strategy for NASA to implement in the twenty-first century
that wiD add luster to an already bright set of accomplishments.
The hardworking stab of the Space Science Board headed by
Dean Kastel, staff director and study director, deserves special
recognition for their steadfast support and guidance in preparing
this strategy.
Thomas M. Donahue, Chairman
Space Science Board
·.
XV11
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Contents
1 INTRODUCTION
1
2 EARTH SCIENCES: A MISSION TO PLANET EARTH 5
Background, 5
Earth as a Global System, 6
Scientific Themes, 9
Recornrnended Program: Pos~1995, 10
The Role of NASA ~ Earth Sciences, 12
National Coordination, 13
Conclusions, 14
3 PLANETARY AND LUNAR EXPLORATION
Background, 15
Goals of Planetary Exploration, 16
Achievements of Planetary Exploration, 18
Future Planetary Exploration A Balanced Planetary
Program, 20
Conclusion, 25
4 SOLAR SYSTEM SPACE PHYSICS
Background, 27
The Sun, Solar Processes, and Variability, 29
The Sun-Earth System, the Magnetosphere, and the
Aurora, 29
X1X
15
27
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The Upper Atmosphere, 30
Magnetospheres of Other Planets and Comets, 31
Connections of Solar System Space Physics to
Laboratory and Astrophysical Plasmas, 31
Nature of the Field, 32
Current Flight Projects, 32
Prospective Pre-1995 Missions, 33
Recommended Program: Pos~1995, 34
Conclusions, 35
5 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
Background, 37
Major Scientific Questions, 38
The Evolution of Space Astronomy, 41
Recommended Program: Pos~1995, 45
Cros~Links with Other Disciplines, 49
Conclusions, 49
6 FUNDAMENTAL PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY:
RELATIVISTIC GRAVITATION AND
MICROGRAVITY SCIENCE
Overview, 51
A. Relativistic Gravitation, 52
Background, 52
Tests of Genera] Relativity Theory In Weak Fields, 52
Principle of Equivalence, 53
Secular Change in the Gravitational Constant, 54
Gravitational Waves, 54
Pr - 1995 Program for Relativistic Gravitation, 55
Recommended Program for Relativistic Gravitation:
Post-1995, 56
B. Microgravity Science, 57
Background, 57
Observation of States in Equilibrium, 57
Observation of States Destroyed by Gravity, 58
States Far from Equilibrium, 58
Conclusions and Recommendations for Microgravity
Science, 58
7 LIFE SCIENCES
Background, 60
xx
37
51
60
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Life Science Goals and Major Questions, 63
Recommended Progrmn: Pos~1995, 69
8 INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES
9 HUMAN PRESENCE IN SPACE
Space Age Science, 76
The Scope of Human Presence in Space; 77
10 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
11 PRECONDITIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE
XXI
-
74
76
79
82
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