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SPACE SCIENCE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY IMPERATIVES FOR THE DECADES 1995 TO 2015 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS Task Group on Astronomy and Astrophysics Space Science Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1988

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National Academv Press 2101 Constitution Avenue N.W . Washington, D. C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to Odorize the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and Rice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by Contract NASW 3482 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 87-43333 ISBN 0-309-03875-8 Printed in the United States of America

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TASK GROUP ON ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS Bernard Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chairman James Roger Angel, University of Arizona Jacques Beckers, NOAO Advanced Development Program Andrea Dupree, Center for Astrophysics Car! E. Fichtel, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center George Field, Center for Astrophysics Riccardo Giacconi, Space Telescope Science Institute Jonathan GrindIay, Center for Astrophysics Martin Harwit, Cornell University Frank Low, University of Arizona Frank McDonald, NASA Headquarters Dietrich Muller, University of Chicago Minoru Oda, ISAS Klaus Pinkau, Max-Planck Institute for Plasma Physics Kenneth A. Pounds, University of Leicester Irwin Shapiro, Center for Astrophysics Susan Wyckoff, Arizona State University Richard C. Hart, Staff Offlcer Carmela J. Chamberlain, Secretary . .

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STEERING CROUP Thomas M. Donahue, University of Michigan, Chairman Don L. Anderson, California Institute of Technology D. James Baker, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc. Robert W. Berliner, Pew Scholars Program, Yale University Bernard F. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology A. G. W. Cameron, Harvard College Observatory George B. Field, Center for Astrophysics, Harvard University Herbert Friedman, Naval Research Laboratory Donald M. Hunten, University of Arizona Francis S. Johnson, University of Texas at Dallas Robert Kretsinger, University of Virginia Stamatios M. Krimigis, Applied Physics Laboratory Eugene H. Levy, University of Arizona Frank B. McDonald, NASA Headquarters John E. Naugle, Chevy Chase, Maryland Joseph M. Reynolds, The Louisiana State University Frederick L`. Scarf, TRW Systems Park Scott N. Swisher, Michigan State University David A. Usher, Cornell University James A. Van Allen, University of {owe Rainer Weiss, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Dean P. Kastel, Study Director Ceres M. Rangos, secretary 1V

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SPACE SCIENCE BOARD Thomas M. Donahue, University of Michigan, Chairman Philip H. Abelson, American Association for the Advancement of Science Roger D. Blandford, California Institute of Technology Larry W. Esposito, University of Colorado Jonathan E. GrindIay, Center for Astrophysics Donald N. B. Hall, University of Hawaii Andrew P. Ingersoll, California Institute of Technology William M. Kaula, NOAA Harold P. Klein, The University of Santa Clara John W. Leibacher, National Solar Observatory Michael Mendillo, Boston University Robert O. Pepin, University of Minnesota Roger J. Phillips, Southern Methodist University David M. Raup, University of Chicago Christopher T. Russell, University of California, Los Angeles Blair D. Savage, University of Wisconsin John A. Simpson, Enrico Fermi Institute, University of Chicago George L. Siscoe. Universitv of California. Los Angeles .. . ., . L. Dennis Smith, Purdue University Darrell F. Strobel, Johns Hopkins University Byron D. Tapley, University of Texas at Austin Dean P. Kastel, Stall Director Ceres M. Rangos, Secretary

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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES Norman Hackerman, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman George F. Carrier, Harvard University Dean E. Eastman, IBM Corporation Marye Anne Fox, University of Texas Gerhart FriedIander, Brookhaven National Laboratory Lawrence W. Funkhouser, Chevron Corporation (retired) Phillip A. Griffiths, Duke University J. Ross Macdonald, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Charles J. Mankin, Oklahoma Geological Survey Perry L. McCarty, Stanford University Jack E. Oliver, Cornell University Jeremiah P. Ostriker, Princeton University Observatory William D. Phillips, MallinckroUt, Inc. Denis J. Prager, MacArthur Foundation David M. Raup, University of Chicago Richard J. Reed, University of Washington Robert E. Sievers, University of Colorado Larry L. Smarr, National Center for Supercomputing Applications Edward C. Stone, Jr., California Institute of Technology Karl K. Turekian, Yale University George W. Wetherill, Carnegie Institution of Washington Irving Wladawsky-Berger, IBM Corporation Raphael G. Kasper, Executive Director Lawrence E. McCray, Associate Executive Director V1

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Foreword Early in 1984, NASA asked the Space Science Board to un- dertake a study to determine the principal scientific issues that the disciplines of space science would face cluring the period from about 1995 to 2015. This request was made partly because NASA expected the Space Station to become available at the beginning of this period, and partly because the missions needed to im- plement research strategies previously developed by the various committees of the board should have been launched or their de- velopment under way by that time. A two-year study was called for. To carry out the study the board put together task groups in earth sciences, planetary and lunar exploration, solar system space physics, astronomy and astrophysics, fundamental physics and chemistry (relativistic gravitation and microgravity sciences), and life sciences. Responsibility for the study was vested in a steer- ing group whose members consisted of the task group chairmen plus other senior representatives of the space science disciplines. To the board's good fortune, distinguished scientists from many countries other than the United States participated in this study. The findings of the study are published in seven volumes: six task group reports, of which this volume is one, and an overview report of the steering group. ~ commend this and all the other task group reports to the reader for an understanding of the challenges . V11

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that confront the space sciences and the insights they promise for the next century. The official recornrnendations of the study are those to be found in the steering group's overview. Thomas M. Donahue, Chairman Space Science Board . . .

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Contents 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY The Importance of Advanced Instrumentation in Astrophysical Progress, 3 Astrophysical Goals, 4 The Next Generation of Powerful Observatories in Space, 6 2. SCIENCE OBJECTIVES Introduction, 8 Basic Astrophysical Questions, 9 Relationship to Other Disciplines of Space Science, 17 3. ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS IN 1995: EXPECTED STATUS Overview, 19 Radio Astronomy, 20 Infrared and Submillimeter Astronomy, 22 Ultraviolet and Optical Wavelengths, 24 X-ray Astronomy, 25 Gamma-Ray Astronomy, 27 Cosmic-Ray Astrophysics, 28 Gravitational Physics, 31 NASA Operational Status, 33 International Programs, 33 1X 1 8 19

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4. NEW INITIATIVES The Way Forward, 36 High-Resolution Interferometry, 38 High-Throughput Instruments, 46 Very High Throughput Facility (VHTF), 56 Hard X-ray Imaging Facility (HXIF), 58 Gamma-Ray Astronomy, 60 Cosrn~c-Ray Research, 62 5. PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS Budgetary Requirements, 67 International Collaboration, 68 Cost-to-Weight Ratio, 69 Management and Operations, 69 Coordinated Facilities, 70 Scientific Instruments Technology, 70 x 36 67