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SPACE SCIENCE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY IMPERATIVES FOR THE DECADES 1995 TO 2015 MISSION TO PLANET EARTH Task Group on Earth Sciences Space Science Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1988

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National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. . Washington. D. C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by Contract NASW 3482 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 87-43336 ISBN 0-309-03890-1 Printed in the United States of America

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TASK GROUP ON EARTH SCIENCES Don L. Anderson, California Institute of Technology, Chairman D. James Baker, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc. Moustafa T. Chahine, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Adam M. Dziewonski, Harvard University William M. Kaula, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Michael McElroy, Harvard University Berrien Moore ITI, University of New Hampshire Ronald G. Prinn, Massachusetts Institute of Technology S. Ichtiaque Rasool, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Roger ReveDe, University of California at San Diego Donald L. Turcotte, Cornell University Paul F. Uhlir, Staff Offlcer Anne L. Pond, Secretary 1V

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STEERING GROUP Thomas M. Donahue, University of Michigan, Chairman Don L. Anderson, California Institute of Technology D. James Baker, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc. Robert W. Berliner, Pew Scholars Program, Yale University Bernard F. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology A. G. W. Cameron, Harvard College Observatory George B. Field, Center for Astrophysics, Harvard University Herbert Friedman, Naval Research Laboratory Donald M. Hunten, University of Arizona Francis S. Johnson, University of Texas at Dallas Robert Kretsinger, University of Virginia Stamatios M. Krimigis, Applied Physics Laboratory Eugene H. Levy, University of Arizona Frank B. McDonald, NASA Headquarters John E. Naugle, Chevy Chase, Maryland Joseph M. Reynolds, The Louisiana State University Frederick L. Scarf, TRW Systems Park Scott N. Swisher, Michigan State University David A. Usher, Cornell University James A. Van Allen, University of Iowa Rainer Weiss, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Dean P. Kastel, Study Director Ceres M. Rangos, Secretary v

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SPACE SCIENCE: BOARD Thomas M. Donahue, University of Michigan, Chairman Philip H. Abelson, American Association for the Advancement of Science Roger D. Blandford, California Institute of Technology Larry W. Esposito, University of Colorado Jonathan E. GrindIay, Center for Astrophysics Donald N. B. Hall, University of Hawaii Andrew P. Ingersoll, California Institute of Technology William M. Kaula, NOAA Harold P. Klein, The University of Santa Clara John W. Leibacher, National Solar Observatory Michael Mendillo, Boston University Robert O. Pepin, University of Minnesota Roger J. Phillips, Southern Methodist University David M. Raup, University of Chicago Christopher T. Rudely, University of California, Los Angeles Blair D. Savage, University of Wisconsin John A. Simpson, Enrico Fermi Institute, University of Chicago George L. Siscoe, University of California, I,os Angeles L. Dennis Smith, Purdue University Darreld F. Strobel, Johns Hopkins University Byron D. Tapley, University of Texas at Austin Dean P. Kastel, Staff D'rector Ceres M. Rangos, Secretary V1

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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND 1~:SOURCES Norman Hackerman, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman George F. Carrier, Harvard University Dean E. Eastman, IBM Corporation Marye Anne Fox, University of Texas Gerhart FriedIander, Brookhaven National Laboratory Lawrence W. Funkhouser, Chevron Corporation (retired) Phillip A. Griffiths, Duke University J. Ross Macdonald, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Charles J. Mankin, Oklahoma Geological Survey Perry L. McCarty, Stanford University Jack E. Oliver, Cornell University Jeremiah P. Ostriker, Princeton University Observatory William D. PhiHips, Mallinckro~t, Inc. Denis J. Prager, MacArthur Foundation David M. Raup, University of Chicago Richard 3. Reed, University of Washington Robert E. Sievers, University of Colorado I.arry I.. Smarr, National Center for Supercomputing Applications Edward C. Stone, Jr., California Institute of Technology Karl K. Turekian, Yale University George W. Wetherill, Carnegie Institution of Washington Irving Wladawsky-Berger, IBM Corporation Raphael G. Kasper, Executive Director Lawrence E. McCray, Associate Executive Director . V11

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Foreword Early in 1984, NASA asked the Space Science Board to un- dertake a study to determine the principal scientific issues that the disciplines of space science would face during the period from about 1995 to 2015. This request was made partly because NASA expected the Space Station to become available at the beginning of this period, and partly because the missions needed to implement research strategies previously developed by the various commit- tees of the board should have been launched or their development under way by that time. A two-year study was called for. To carry out the study the board put together task groups in earth sciences, planetary and lunar exploration, solar and space physics, astronomy and astrophysics, fundamental physics and chemistry (relativistic gravitation and microgravity sciences), and life sci- ences. Responsibility for the study was vested in a steering group whose members consisted of the task group chairmen plus other se- nior representatives of the space science disciplines. To the board's good fortune, distinguished scientists from many countries other than the United States participated in this study. The findings of the study are published in seven volumes: six task group reports, of which this volume is one, and an overview report of the steering group. ~ commend this and all the other task group reports to the reader for an understanding of the challenges L'C

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that confront the space sciences Id the lnsl~ts they promise far the next century. Ibe oracle reco~endatlons of the study are those to be Fund ~ the steering Coupes Nervier. Tbom~ hi. Don^e] Cb~rm~ Space Scarce Board

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Preface This report outlines a unified program for studying the Earth, from its deep interior to its fluid envelopes. It proposes a system ot measuring devices Involving both space-based and in situ oh servations that can accommodate simultaneously a large range of scientific needs. The scientific objectives served by this integrated infrastruc- ture are cast In a framework of four "grand themes." In summary these are: 1. To deterrn~ne the composition, structure, dynamics, and . evolution of the Earth's crust and deeper interior. 2. To establish and understand the structure, dynamics, and chemistry of the oceans, atmosphere, and cryosphere, and their interaction with the solid Earth. 3. To characterize the history and dynamics of living organ- ~sms and their interaction with the environment. 4. To monitor and understand the interaction of human ac- tivities with the natural environment. A focus on these grand themes will help us understand the origin and fate of our planet, and to place it in the context of the solar system. Chapter 1 introduces the reader to the four grand themes and X1

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provides an overview of the Task Group on Earth Sciences' recom- mended measurement strategy and programs. It emphasizes the need for simultaneous, long-term observations of a wide spectrum of phenomena. The measurements must be global and synoptic, and must consider the time scale of the processes involved. Chap- ter 2 outlines the present state of knowledge in the framework of the four grand themes. This chapter anticipates the progress that can be achieved by 1995. The scientific objectives for the years 1995 to 2015 are set forth in Chapter 3. The specific sets of measurements needed are integrated with the grand themes to lead to the definition of the required observational capabilities. Chapter 4 reviews some of the observing systems currently op- erational, being deployed, or planned for 1986 to 1995. Chapter 5 addresses the hardware requirements of the proposed program with emphasis on the satellite Earth Observing System (EOS) and a Permanent Large Array of Terrestrial Observatories (PLATO). The amount of detail varies; in some cases it is expected that specific requirements will be developed by the user community. Chapter 6 concludes with a discussion of science policy considera- tions and recommendations. In recent years, a number of important earth science stud- ies have been completed. In particular, the task group has re- viewed and utilized several of these reports as the basis for further conclusions relevant to the 1995 to 2015 period. It should be noted at the outset that the task group report is fully supportive of the World CInnate Research Program and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program as described in previous NRC re- ports. While the task group uses the recommendations of these and other reports, it has gone far beyond them to develop a broader, more comprehensive, and long-range study of Earth for the twenty-first century. The documents referred to in this report are the following: Data Management and Computation, Volume I: Issues and Recom- mendations, Committee on Data Management and Computa- tion, Space Science Board, National Academy Press, 1982. Earth Observing System, NASA Technical Memorandum 86129, August 1984. Earth Systems Science Committee Working Group on Imaging and Tropospheric Sounding: Final Report, Jet Propulsion Labora- tory, Report No. ~2415, January 1985. X11

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Geodynamics in the 1980s, U.S. Geodynamics Committee, Geo- physics Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, 1980. Global Change in the Geosphere-Biosphere: Initial Priorities for an IGBP, U.S. Committee for an International Geosphere- Biosphere Program, National Academy Press, 1986. The Lithosphere: Report of a Workshop, U.S. Geodynamics Com- m~ttee, Board on Earth Sciences, National Academy Press, 1983. Oceanography from Space A Research Strategy for the Decade 1985-1995, Part 2: Proposed Measurements and Missions, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., 1984. A Strategy for Earth Science from Space in the 1980's and 1990's, Part I: Solid Earth and Oceans; Part If: Atmosphere and In- teractions with the Solid Earth, Oceans, and Biota, Committee on Earth Sciences, Space Science Board, National Academy Press, 1982 and 1985, respectively. Finally, ~ wish to thank the task group for its efforts in prepar- ing the report, and the Space Science Board staff, who provided support for the task group activities. Don L. Anderson, Chairman Task Group on Earth Sciences - X111

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Contents 1. DESIGN AND IMPLICATIONS OF A RESEARCH MISSION TO PLANET EARTH 1 Introduction, 1 Grand Themes, 5 Measurement Strategy, 7 Systems Overview, 10 Strategy Overview, 12 2. EARTH SCIENCES STATUS OF UNDERSTANDING 16 Introduction, 16 The Earth's Interior and Crust, 18 The Earth's Air and Water, 28 Life on Earth, 40 Planet Earth in the Solar System, 49 3. THE EARTH AS A SYSTEM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE FOR FUTURE PLANNING Introduction Objectives and Grand Themes, 52 Grand Theme 1: Structure, Evolution, and Dynamics of the Earth's Interior and Crust, 54 Grand Theme 2: Atmosphere, Oceans, Cryosphere, and Hydrologic Cycle, 62 Grand Theme 3: Living Organisms and Their Inter- action with the Environment, 67 xv 52

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Grand Theme 4: Interaction of Human Activities with the Natural Environment, 69 4. CURRENT AND PLANNED EARTH OBSERVING SATELLITE MISSIONS: 1986 TO 1995 Introduction, 73 Current Programs, 76 Potential Initiatives: 1986 to 1995, 81 Computers, Communications, and Data 73 Management, 86 5. ELEMENTS OF THE MISSION TO PLANET EARTH 87 Systems Definition, 87 Elements of the System, 90 Data Management and Analysis, 101 Integration of Results from Observing Systems, 104 6. SCIENCE POLICY CONSIDERATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Introduction, 106 Recommendations, 106 APPENDIX A: EOS Instrument Descriptions, 113 XVI 106