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SPACE SCIENCE IN THE
TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
IMPERATIVES FOR THE
DECADES 1995 TO 2015
SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS
Task Group on Solar and Space Physics
Space Science Board
Cornrnission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1988
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National Academy Press · 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. · Washington, D. C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the
Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the
councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering,
and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report
were chosen for their special competenc" and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to
procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the
National Academy of Scienc - , the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society
of distinguished scholars engaged us scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to thdr use for the general welfare. Upon
the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has
a mandate that requir" it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical
matters. Dr. Franc Press u president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 196d, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers.
It is autonomous in its administration ant in the selection of its members, sharing with
the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government.
The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at
meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior
achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy
of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the
Lamination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional
charter to be an ad~riser to the federal government ~d, upon its own initiative, to
identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president
of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences
in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's
purpose of furthering knowledge and advising the federal go~rernment. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the
principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering in providing "Eric" to the government, the public, and the
scientific and engineering communiti - . The Council is administered jointly by both
Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Franlc Pre" and Dr. Robert M. White are
chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National R - earch Council.
Support for this project was provided by Contract NASW 3482 between the National
Academy of Scienc" and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 87-43332
ISBN 0-309-03848-0
Printed in the United States of America
First Printing, June 1988
Second Printing, November 1988
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TASK CROUP ON SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS
Frederick Scarf, TRW, Chairman
Roger M. Bonnet, Agence Spatiale Europeene
Guenter E. Brueckner, Naval Research Laboratory
Alexander Dessler, Marshall Space Flight Center
William B. Hanson, University of Texas at Dallas
Thomas Homer, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Francis S. Johnson, University of Texas at Dallas
Stamatios Krim~gis, Applied Physics Laboratory
Louis Lanzerotti, Bell Laboratories
John Leibacher, National Solar Observatory
Robert MacQueen, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Car! E. McIlwain, University of California, San Diego
Andrew Nagy, University of Michigan
Eugene N. Parker, University of Chicago
George Paulikas, Aerospace Corporation
Raymond G. Roble, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Christopher Russell, University of California at I.os Angeles
James Van Allen, University of Iowa
Richard C. Hart, Staff Offlcer
Carmela J. Charnberiain, Secretary
· - ~
111
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STEERING GROUP
Thomas M. Donahue, University of Michigan, Chairman
Don L. Anderson, California Institute of Technology
D. James Baker, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc.
Robert W. Berliner, Pew Scholars Program, Yale University
Bernard F. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A. G. W. Cameron, Harvard College Observatory
George B. Field, Center for Astrophysics, Harvard University
Herbert Friedman, Naval Research Laboratory
Donna M. Hunten, University of Arizona
Francis S. Johnson, University of Texas at Dallas
Robert Kretsinger, University of Virginia
Stamatios M. Krimigis, Applied Physics I,aboratory
Eugene H. Levy, University of Arizona
Frank B. McDonald, NASA Headquarters
John E. Naugle, Chevy Chase, Maryland
Joseph M. Reynolds, The Louisiana State University
Frederick L. Scarf, TRW Systems Park
Scott N. Swisher, Michigan State University
David A. Usher, Cornell University
James A. Van Allen, University of Iowa
Rainer Weiss, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dean P. Kastel, Study Director
Ceres M. Rangos, Secretary
1V
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SPACE: SCIENCE BOA1lD
Thomas M. Donahue, University of Michigan, Chairman
Philip H. Abelson, American Association for the Advancement of
Science
Roger D. Bl"dford, California Institute of Technology
Larry W. Esposito, University of Colorado
Jonathan E. Gr~ndIay, Center for Astrophysics
Donald N. B. Hall, University of Hawaii
Andrew P. Ingersoll, California Institute of Technology
William M. Kaula, NOAA
Harold P. Klein, The University of Santa Clara
John W. Leibacher, National Solar Observatory
Michael Mendillo, Boston University
Robert O. Pepin, University of Minnesota
Roger 3. Phillips, Southern Methodist University
David M. Raup, University of Chicago
Christopher T. Rumell, University of California, Los Angeles
Blair D. Savage, University of Wisconsin
John A. Simpson, Enrico Fernu Institute, University of Chicago
George L. Siscoe, University of California, Los Angeles
L. Dennis Smith, Purdue University
Darrell F. Strobel, Johns Hopkins University
Byron D. Tapley, University of Texas at Austin
Dean P. Kastel, Staff Director
Ceres M. Rangos, Secretary
v
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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS,
AND RESOURCES
Norman Hackerman, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman
George F. Carrier, Harvard University
Dean E. Eastman, IBM Corporation
Marye Anne Fox, University of Texas
Gerhart FriedIander, Brookhaven National Laboratory
Lawrence W. Funkhouser, Chevron Corporation (ret~red3
Phillip A. Griffiths, Duke University
J. Ross Macdonald, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Charles 3. Mankinj Oklahoma Geological Survey
Perry L. McCarty, Stanford University
Jack E. Oliver, Cornell University
Jeremiah P. Ostriker, Princeton University Observatory
William D. Phillips, MaD~nckro~t, ~c.
Denis 3. Prager, MacArthur Foundation
David M. Raup, University of Chicago
Richard J. Reed, University of Washington
Robert E. Sievers, University of Colorado
Larry L. Smarr, National Center for Supercomputing
Applications
Edward C. Stone, Jr., California Institute of Technology
Karl K. Turekian, Yale University
George W. Wetherill, Carnegie Institution of Washington
Irving Wladawsky-Berger, IBM Corporation
Raphael G. K - per, Executive Director
I,awrence E. McCray, A880Cia~e Executive Director
V1
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Foreword
Early in 1984, NASA asked the Space Science Board to un-
dertake a study to determine the principal scientific issues that
the disciplines of space science would face during the period from
about 1995 to 2015. This request was made partly because NASA
expected the Space Station to become available at the beginning
of this period, and partly because the missions needed to im-
plement research strategies previously developed by the various
committees of the board should have been launched or their de-
velopment under way by that time. A two-year study was called
for. To carry out the study the board put together task groups
in earth sciences, planetary and lunar exploration, solar system
space physics, astronomy and astrophysics, fundamental physics
and chemistry (relativistic gravitation and m~crogravity sciences),
and life sciences. Responsibility for the study was vested in a steer-
ing group whose members consisted of the task group chairmen
plus other senior representatives of the space science disciplines.
To the board's good fortune, distinguished scientists from many
countries other than the United States participated in this study.
The findings of the study are published in seven volumes: six
task group reports, of which this volume is one, and an overview
report of the steering group. ~ commend this and all the other task
group reports to the reader for an understanding of the challenges
·—
V11
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that confront the space sciences and the insights they promise for
the next century. The official recommendations of the study are
those to be found in the steering group's overview.
Thomas M. Donahue, Chairman
Space Science Board
· ·.
van
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Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
2. SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES
Solar Physics, 7
Physics of the Heliosphere,
Magnetospheric Physics, 10
Upper Atmospheric Physics, 12
Solar-Terrestrial Coupling, 14
Comparative Planetary Studies, 15
STATUS EXPECTED IN 1995
Solar and Heliospheric Physics, 17
Magnetospheric Physics, 20
Upper Atmosphere Science, 23
Planetary Space Physics, 26
Summary, 29
4. NEW INITIATIVES: 1995 TO 2015
Solar and Heliospheric Physics, 33
Terrestrial Magnetospheric Physics, 43
Terrestrial Atmospheric Physics, 47
Planetary Science, 50
Summary of Technology Development Needs, 53
vim
1
7
17
33
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