Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Risk en c! Decision Making: Perspectives and Research Committee on Risk and Decision Making Assembly of Behavioral and Social Sciences National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1982
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Re- search Council, whose members are drawn from the coun- cils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with re- gard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advis- ing the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respec- tively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences.
COMMITTEE ON RISK AND DECISION MAKING HOWARD RAIFFA (Chair), Graduate School of Business, Harvard University A. RARIM ARMED, Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., New York DAVID COHEN, Common Cause, Washington, D.C. JAMES S. COLEMAN, Department of Sociology, University of Chicago ROBERT W. KATES, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University *CHARLES E. LINDBLOM, Institute for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University GLENN C. LOWRY, Department of Economics, University of Michigan ROY RADNER, Bell Telephone Laboratories, Inc., Murray Hill, N.J. (December 1979-June 1981) WILLIAM D. RUCKELSHAUS, Weyerhauser Corporation, Tacoma, Wash. JACK P. RUINA, Department of Electrical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology PETER SCHUCK, Law School, Yale University EILEEN SERENE, Department of Philosophy, Yale University AMOS TVERSKY, Department of Psychology, Stanford University JAMES H. WAPE, School of Public Health, Harvard University RICHARD WILSON, Energy and Environmental Center, Harvard University ROSALYN YALOW, Veterans Administration Medical Center, Bronx, N.Y. JAMES W. VAUPEL, Study Director JOHN D. GRAHAM, Staff Associate *Charles E. Eindblom does not approve this report .
CONU:NTS PREFACE PERSPECTIVES ON RISK AND DECISION MAKING Increased Longevity and Rising Public Concern About Risk, 1 Some Pass ible Interpretations, 3 Ri sk Pe rcept ion, 11 Ri sk-Generat ing and Ri sk-Coping Proces s es, 14 line Roles of Science and Analysis, 27 Two Aspects of Risk Analysis: Assessment and Evaluation, 31 The Role of Scientists and Scientific Institutions, 39 Some Issues in Risk Assessment, 41 RESEARCH ON RISK AND DEC ISION MAKING Actual and Perceived Risks, 51 Generation of Risks, 55 Coping With Risks, 56 Risk Analysis, 61 Synthes i z ing Ri sk As s es sments, 6 3 REFERENCES v V11 1 47 67 ;