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The Outiook for Science and Technology 1 985 Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE

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NOTICE: The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by Act of Congress as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation for the furtherance of science and technology for the general welfare. The terms of its charter require the National Academy of Sciences to advise the federal government upon request within its fields of competence. Under this corporate charter, the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively. The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy is a joint committee of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. It includes members of the councils of all three bodies. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant PSP- 7913104. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 85~0421 Availablefor $3. 00 per copy (prepaid only)from National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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Preface The 1985 Outlook for Science and Technology is the fourth report in a series originally mandated by the National Science and Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976. Subsequent to the passage of that Act, a reorganization of the Executive Office of the President gave the National Science Foundation responsibility for preparing the Outlooks. In turn, the Foundation asked the National Academy of Sciences to assist. Since 1982, the Outlooks have been prepared by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP), ajoint unit of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Acade- my of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The purposes of these reports are to describe and discuss: current and emerging problems of national significance that are identified through scientific research or in which scientific or technical considerations are of major importance; and opportunities for the use of new and existing scientific and

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PREFACE technological capabilities that can help to resolve these problems and impediments to the effective use of these capabilities. Issues presented in this Outlook were obtained from several sources, including discussion within COSEPUP and from re- search briefings prepared for the President's Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), the National Science Founda- tion, and other federal agencies. These briefings summarized research opportunities with the potential for high scientific re- turns in a number of fields, identified by OSTP after consultation with COSEPUP. Twenty-one briefings have been presented in the last three years on subjects as diverse as agriculture, astron- omy, atherosclerosis, catalysis and other topics in chemistry, computer-aided manufacturing, information technology in pre- college education, neuroscience, immunology, and cognitive science and artificial intelligence. In this report, we summarize the nine subjects that formed the bases of the 1984 research briefings. Subjects of comparable scientific merit could have been selected. However, as with past briefings, the topics selected were those for which near-term federal actions were considered likely. Other suggestions for this Outlook came from the major units of the National Research Council and from Councilors of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The committee is grateful to all of these contributors and especially to the members of its subcommittee responsible for preparation of the 1985 Outlook: lacob Bigeleisen, of the State University of New York at Stony Brook (chairman); Floyd E. Bloom, of the Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation; Emilio Q. Daddario, of Wilkes, Artis, Hedrick, and Inane; and Edward A. Mason, of the Standard Oil Company (Indiana). The sub- stantial contributions by Norman Metzger in preparing this report are acknowledged. LEON T. SILVER Chairman Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy . 1V

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Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy Subcommittee on the Outiook for Science and Technology JACOB BIGELEISEN, Leading Professor, Department of Chemistry, State University of New York at Stony Brook (Chairman) FLOYD E. BLOOM, Director and Member, Division of Preclinical Neuroscience and Endocrinology, Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation, La Jolla, California EMILIO Q. DADDARIO, Wilkes, Artis, Hedrick, and Lane, Attorneys at Law, Washington, D.C. EDWARD A. MASON, Vice President, Research, Standard Oil Company (Indiana), Naperville, Illinois Staff NORMAN METZGER, Staff Officer AUDREY PENDERGAST, Associate Editor GERRY KASARDA, Administrative Assistant v

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Committee on Science' Engineering, and Public Policy LEON T. SILVER, William M. Keck Foundation Professor of Geology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California (:Chairman) LINDA H. AIKEN,* Vice President for Research, The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Princeton, New Jersey RICHARD C. ATKINSON, Chancellor, University of California, San Diego JACOB BIGELEISEN, Leading Professor, Department of Chemistry, State University of New York at Stony Brook FLOYD E. BLOOM, Director and Member, Division of Preclinical Neuroscience and Endocrinology, Scripps Clinic and Research Foundation, La Jolla, California ~V. DALE COMPTON, Vice President, Research, Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan EMILIO Q. DADDARIO, Wilkes, Artis, Hedrick, and Lane, Attorneys at Law, Washington, D.C. GERALD P. DINNEEN, Vice President, Science and Technology, Honeywell, Inc., Minneapolis, Minnesota ALEXANDER FLAX, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, Virginia ZVI GRILICHES, Professor, Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts PHILIP LEDER, TOhn Emory Andrus Professor and Chairman, Department of Genetics, Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, Massachusetts GARDNER LINDZEY, President and Director, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Palo Alto, California *Term expired December 31, 1984. V1

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COMMI T TEE EDWARD A. MASON, Vice President, Research, Standard Oil Company (Indiana), Naperville, Illinois DANIEL NATHANS, Professor, Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland GILBERT S. OMENN, Dean, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington HERBERT A. SIMON, Richard King Mellon University Professor of Computer Science and Psychology, Department of Psychology, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania F. KARL WILLENBROCK, Cecil H. Green Professor of Engineering, School of Engineering and Applied Science, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas Ex Officio Members FRANK PRESS, President, National Academy of Sciences ROBERT M. WHITE, President, National Academy of Engineering FREDERICK C. ROBBINS, President, Institute of Medicine COSEPUP Staff ALLAN R. HOFFMAN, Executive Director BARBARA A. CANDLAND, Administrative Assistant JOANNA M. MASTANTUONO, Senior Secretary vat

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Contents OVERVIEW I. RECENT PROGRESS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY . . . Oncogenes .............. Atherosclerosis...... Parasitism .......... Chemical and Process Engineering for Biotechnology. Advanced Polymeric Composites Supercomputer Architectures .... Information Technology in Precollege Education .... Opportunities in Physics ........ Solar-Terrestrial Plasma Physics.. A- ~ ... 10 11 12 ... 13 14 - 1X

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CONTENTS lI. AN OUTLINE OF SELECTED ISSUES. International Competition in Science and Technology....................... ~17 ..... 18 Supercomputers, 18; Biochemical Engineering, 20; Advanced Polymeric Composites, 22 Issues for the Congress, 22 Scientific and Engineering Personnel 23 Starting a Research Career, 23; Clinicians in Research, 24; Possible Shortages, 24; Doctorates for Non-U.S. Citizens, 25 Issues for the Congress, 27 Cooperative Work Across Disciplines. . The Special Case of Agriculture, 29 Issues for the Congress, 30 Research and Transportation Highways, 31 Issues for the Congress, 32 Facilities and Instrumentation Large-Scale Facilities, 33; Medium-Scale Instrumentation, 34; Planning New Facilities, 37 Issues for the Congress, 38 Issues in Genetic Engineering ~ 28 30 33 40 Issues for the Congress, 41 Issues in Human Biology 4~1 In Vitro Fertilization and Implantation of Human Eggs, 42; Genetic Therapy of Human Cells, 42 Issues for the Congress, 44 Scientific Communication, Technology Transfer, and National Security 44 The Department of Defense, 45; The Department of Commerce, 45 Issues for the Congress, 47 Global Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions Issues for the Congress, 49 Final Comment x ... 48 ... 49

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The OutlooFfor Science and Technology 1 985

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