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OCR for page 17
PART II
An Outline of
Selected Issues
This second part of the 1985 Outlook highlights several issues,
abstracted either from the fields discussed in Part I or from
reports and discussions within the National Research Council or
the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. The
intent is to articulate national concerns involving science and
technology. Within that broad purpose, two caveats apply to the
issues discussed: (~) they constitute a selected rather than a com-
prehensive listing, and (2) they are described in outline rather
- than in detail, to keep this report brief.
Within these limits, the issues are:
· international competition in science and technology;
· scientific and engineering personnel;
· cooperative work across disciplines;
research and transportation;
· facilities and instrumentation;
. . # . .
· Issues In genetic engineering;
· issues in human biology;
17
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
· scientific communication, technology transfer, and national secur-
ity; and
· giohal atmospheric effects of nuclear explosions.
International Competition in Science and Technology
As emphasized most recently in the report by the President's
Commission on industrial Competitiveness, the nation's ability
to compete in global markets depends on several interlocking
elements, among them the ability to create, apply, and protect
new technology; an adequate supply of productive capital; a
well-educated and flexible work force; and increased policy em-
phasis on international trade.
These multiple elements represent difficult tasks for legislators
and policymakers. This section concentrates on one aspect of
them: improving the nation's competitive strength in science and
technology. It does this by using three examples taken from Part
of this report, all of them economically important: supercom-
puters, biochemical engineering, and advanced polymeric com-
pos~tes.
Supercomputers
Rapidly developing microelectronic technology and computer
architectures have created the bases for major advances in com-
putational speeds. Such revolutionary changes are crucial to
maintaining U. S. leadership in many scientific and technological
areas. However, they also will expose the U. S. computer indus-
try to new international challenges as rapid fluctuations in prod-
uct price and performance undermine the predictable customer
preferences that have characterized the industry.
Given this context, it is essential that the United States look to
the solidity of its technological position. That position needs to
be measured continually against developments abroad and
strengthened judiciously where weaknesses are found. Major
supercomputer technology initiatives are under way in three
agencies the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
(DARPA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the
18
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SELECTED ISSUES
Department of Energy (DOE). These activities need to be
accelerated and coordinated carefully to ensure both a systematic
exploration of significant design alternatives and a rapid transla-
tion of successful designs into commercial production. Also vital
is the early involvement of the major user communities-
especially the research universities in the development of soft-
ware and utilization expertise for the new machines.
Although DARPA has the leading role in funding major de-
velopment projects in computing, the DOE role in the develop-
ment of scientific supercomputing will be crucial also, especially
in view of the latter's traditionally strong ties to the research
community. In addition, the basic research programs of the
NSF, which contribute to the conceptual and algorithmic bases
for new styles of supercomputing, and the NSF computer access
program, which will put the new machines into the hands of the
broad scientific communities that must pioneer their use, are
very important and need to be kept strong. Access to supercom-
puters is becoming indispensable to frontier research in a grow-
ing number of scientific and engineering fields, among them
fusion research, quantum chemistry, particle physics, materials
~. ~.
.
science, petroleum exu~orat~on~ and process technology.
.
· ~ .~ , .& ~ ~
Early industrial participation in these developments is impera-
tive. Means of increasing cooperation between the computer
industry and university and national laboratory research groups
should be explored vigorously by the federal agencies that fund
major supercomputer development. To allow time for
familiarization and formation of strong technology-transfer
links, cooperation among the different sectors should be encour-
aged in the early stages of computer design. Administrative
obstacles to research collaboration between companies and to the
commercialization of experimental products need to be reex-
amined.
Extremely high computation rates often can be attained
efficiently by tailoring electronic hardware to the requirements
of particular computer-intensive applications. Such special de-
sign efforts have become a significant component of computer
research that needs to be recognized explicitly and cultivated
systematically. In this area, the breadth and many-sided in
19
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
genuity of the U. S. academic and commercial communities can
be exploited to gain competitive advantage. To do this, high-
quality design tools and fabrication systems need to be widely
available. A component of the DARPA Strategic Computing
Program will acldress this issue, but a supplementary NSF pro-
gram aimed at making the resulting design facilities available to
the entire U. S. computer science community also may be appro-
priate.
Increased attempts by the United States to learn from foreign
developments, especially in Japan, are prudent in view of
Japanese strength in certain lines of integrated circuit fabrication
and current reports of rapidly growing capabilities in software.
Much more systematic collection and translation of Japanese
technical literature are called for.
Of course, there are other elements in the international compe-
tition in supercomputers that are not included in this brief dis-
cussion. These include:
· the appropriate role of government and industry in
implementing the new computer architectures designed in the
universities; for example, what would be the respective roles of
government and industry in what is usually considered applied
research and development?;
· problems arising from limited industrial access to supercom-
puters;
· assuring continuity for recent attempts by the federal
government to increase access to supercomputers by academic
. .
sclentlsts;
· financial and other incentives for U. S. companies to develop
a new generation of supercomputers; and
· the level of software development needed to ensure optimal
application of parallel architectures.
Biochemical Engineering
Several countries are trying to develop strong biochemical
engineering industries. West Germany, Japan, and Great Britain
have national institutes for biotechnology. Such investments are
driven by the economic potential of biochemical engineering.
20
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SELEC TED ISS UES
For example, it is estimated that global markets for biological
products will run from $40 to $100 billion annually by the year
2000, or about 15 percent of the total annual market for chemi-
cals.
The United States has a strong capacity for leadership in
biochemical engineering, owing largely to the basic research
conducted in American laboratories. Achieving that leadership
requires a wider knowledge base than is now available, greater
numbers of trained personnel, support for pilot studies of
biochemical engineering processes, and working connections
between basic biological research and engineering practice.
The knowledge needed has been summarized in Part I. Engi-
neering personnel needs can be expressed as a shortage of both
competent biochemical engineers and the faculty to train them.
These personnel problems are worsening as biochemical engi-
neering companies absorb both faculty members and recent
graduates who have research and teaching talents. A second
difficulty derives from the fact that many biotechnology com-
panies tend to be small and oriented toward research and devel-
opment, so that they do not have a sufficient variety of large-
volume products to support the development of new pilot pro-
cesses and large-scale production facilities. Further, the govern-
ment, not currently a major buyer of biochemical engineering
products, may see no reason for supporting pilot studies. The
result may be a lack of both corporate resources and governmen-
tal rationale to initiate new production processes.
Overall, an issue for congressional consideration is strength-
ening the links between life scientists and biochemical engineers.
Mechanisms might include:
· support for cooperative cross-disciplinary research;
· institutional grants to train graduate students;
· funds to enable academic units to purchase the equipment
essential for contemporary research in biochemical engineering;
and
· incentives for quality faculty to dedicate their careers to
launching innovative university instructional and research pro-
grams.
21
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
Advanced Polymeric Composites
While the United States has a sound position in advanced
polymeric composites, vigorous programs also are proceeding in
Japan and West Germany. The United States is strong in the
chemistry of these materials, in their materials engineering, and
in their application; Japan dominates in many aspects of carbon
fiber technology.
As with computers and biochemical engineering, the best
response of the United States is not necessarily to mimic interna-
tional competitors. Rather, the effective transfer of information
among basic, applied, and developmental activities is needed, as
are mechanisms to enable different disciplines to work coopera-
tively on materials problems. Such disciplines include chemistry,
physics, mechanical and chemical engineering, materials science,
computer science, and toxicology. Only about 30 universities
have research programs in advanced composites; of these, only
two have multidisciplinary groups in the area. There are only 40
full-time equivalent faculty members in this field nationally.
In terms of national policy, a major issue is the creation of
several research centers devoted to basic research on advanced
composites. The goals of such centers could be to:
· carry out high-quality scientific and engineering research;
· perform toxicologic assessments;
· provide scientists and engineers trained in specific disciplines
for research on advanced composites; and
· infuse engineering curricula with new knowledge.
Issues for the Congress
These three felds computers, biochemical engineering, and
advanced composites-illustrate both special needs and general
guidelinesfor maintaining their strengths. Thegeneral lessonsfor
effectiveprogress, which are applicable to otherields, include the
need for:
· complementary competence both in the basic science and in the
dievelopmental engineering, inclu~lingpersonne'trained in both the
fundamental science and the engineeringprinciples underlying new
technologies; and!
22
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SELECTED ISSUES
· mechanisms to link different disciplines with each other, uni-
versities with industry, and basic scientists with technologists.
An additional issue for the Congress to consider is:
· the extent to which the expansion of technological programs
for defense is creating shortages of trained personnel in areas critical
to our international competitiveness.
Scientific and Engineering Personnel
Only a few issues are discussed under this broad topic. These
issues include the real difficulties of a young investigator trying
to begin a career in research; the paucity of clinician-researchers;
possible shortages of trained research personnel some five years
from now; and the role of foreign nationals in U.S. advanced
education in science and engineering.
Starting a Research Career
There is, typically, a cyclical pattern to surpluses and shortages
of trained research personnel relative to job opportunities. The
system tends to adjust to small oscillations; on occasion, the
swings become quite large and require national attention. Thus,
we now face severe shortages of computer science and engineer-
ing faculties as a result of insufficient numbers of doctorates in
these fields and the large competition from industry.
In contrast, upon completing their training in biomedical re-
search, many young people cannot fine! suitable openings and
support to continue their research careers. Specifically, the con-
cern is with research trainees in their mid-20's to mid-30's; thatis,
those who are doing much of the experimental work in fast-
moving research fields, such as those described in Part I-
oncogenes, atherosclerosis, and parasitology. Similar difficulties
were seen in physics in the early 1970's and in mathematics in the
late 1970's. The NSF postdoctoral program in mathematics,
instituted to prevent the loss of a generation of gifted young
mathematicians, may be applicable to other fields of science.
Several consequences follow. Promising students may turn
23
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
away from biomedical research in favor of more secure and
remunerative careers. Some of the best academic departments
admit and train far fewer individuals than their pool of qualified
applicants, faculties, and facilities permits. The overall impact-
as in other fields of science eventually may be an insufficient
flow of young people into research careers and slower progress in
exploiting research advances.
The Institute of Medicine's Committee on National Needs for
Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel observed that
this problem cannot be solved solely at the training level and that
it is addressed more effectively in terms of funds available to
support faculty members and their research programs.
The cost of equipment to set up a new investigator in many
branches of science and engineering now runs into hundreds of
thousands of dollars. These funds must come from institutional
resources. This precludes many universities from making ap-
pointments. Even those research universities with the greatest
financial resources are finding it difficult to meet these costs. The
result is a pattern of shifting away from bringing young investi-
gators into the system in favor of attracting establisher! investiga-
tors who are better able to bring external resources with them.
Clinicians in Research
A related concern is the declining number of clinicians entering
research. Yet, cTinician-researchers are indispensable for pro-
gress in areas such as the biology of atherosclerosis, discussed
earlier. Current clinical training programs in universities offer
both inadequate salaries to trainees and uncertainty of continued
support. The fact that fewer clinicians are entering research
undermines the transfer of basic research to clinical practice and
lessens the contributions of physicians in directing research into
the proper channels for understanding and managing human
diseases.
Possible Shortages
Beyond these immediate problems affecting the sufficiency of
research personnel, several more may be in the offing. Student
24
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SELEC TED ISS UES
enrollments reflect job opportunities. Thus, the numbers of
bachelors' degrees awarded in computer sciences rose from 5,600
in 1976 to 15,000 in 1982, while in engineering the figures were
45,000 and 74,000, respectively. In contrast, the numbers of
recipients of bachelors' degrees in mathematics dropped from
15,800 to 10,900 between 1976 and 1983; the corresponding
figures in the biological sciences were 54,000 and 43,000,
respectively. The diminishing pool of students from which
candidates for doctorates and postdoctoral work in various fields
will be drawn five years from now could lead to shortages of
trained personnel for universities and industry in the 1990's.
Doctorates for Non- U. S. Citizens
Five percent more doctorates in science and engineering were
awarded in the United States in 1983 than in 1978. Virtually all of
this increase is accounted for by degrees given to non-U.S.
citizens on temporary visas. Overall, about 20 percent of all
doctoral degrees in science and engineering in 1983 were earned
by those holding temporary visas. In the same year, more engi-
neering doctorates were awarded to foreign citizens than to U. S.
citizens; 38 percent ofthe doctoral degrees in mathematics and 35
percent in the agricultural sciences went to foreign students.
Overall, the proportion of master's and doctoral (legrees
awarded to foreign students relative to American students has
increased substantially in engineering, but has plateaued or fallen
slightly in the physical and biological sciences. In actual num-
bers, graduate enrollments in engineering increased from 36,000
in 1976 to 53,000 in 1983. Ofthese, there were 24,000 and 31,000
U.S. citizens, respectively. That reflects a 30 percent increase,
compared to an 80 percent increase in foreign graduate students
. . .
In engineering.
Much of the increase in numbers of foreign graduate students
enrolled in science and engineering is a direct consequence of the
normalization of relations with the People's Republic of China in
1979. Improvement of higher education in the People's Republic
was adopted at the Fourth National People's Congress held in
January 1975 as a part of Premier Chou En-Lai's doctrine of"four
modernizations. " In 1984, China (including Taiwan) led all other
25
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
foreign countries in the number of doctorates awarded to non-
U.S. citizens in engineering and science, with the exception of
the social sciences. The number of doctorates awarded to
Chinese nationals in electrical engineering in that year is particu-
larly impressive.
How good are these foreign students? One measure is their
scores on Graduate Record Examinations (GRE). On average,
foreign students enter U. S. doctoral institutions with quantita-
tive skills, as measured by the GRE, exceeding those of U.S.
students. The differential is smallest for students in the mathema-
tical and physical sciences and greatest for students in the social
sciences. The higher performance of foreign students on the
GRE quantitative examination may reflect the higher selectivity
in the application and admission of foreign graduate students
compared with U.S. students. Understandably, foreign stu-
dents, for whom English is a second language, perform less well
than do U.S. students on the GRE verbal examination.
There are benefits and possible costs to this major participation
by foreigners in U. S. graduate education in science and engineer-
ing. The benefits to the United States are substantial; they in-
clude the exposure of a new generation of foreign scientists and
engineers to American society and culture, the opportunity for
American faculties and students to gain foreign perspectives on
current research, and the improvement of international scientific
and engineering communication. In some instances, the presence
offoreign students has made up for Tow enrollments of American
students and faculty shortages, and helped to meet industrial
needs. Thus, a substantial proportion-56 percent in 198~of
foreign doctoral recipients are remaining in the United States, in
academia, or industry.
There are also some possible costs. Foreign students who do
not return home after being educated in the United States are a
"brain drain," particularly for less cleveloped countries. While
the opportunity to remain in the United States usually presents
greater opportunities for research, the home country is denied
the benefit of science and technology transfer for development.
Further, a higher proportion of graduate teaching and research
assistants for whom English is a second language reduces the
26
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SELEC TED ISS UES
effectiveness of teaching at American universities and may even
deter promising American students from taking advanced de-
grees. The greater availability of foreign students, often with
financial support in hand, may decrease the incentive to recruit
promising American students. Finally, and more subtly, foreign
students and faculty members often have a theoretical rather than
an experimental bent, a difference that may affect both the direc-
tions of future research and the efficacy of programs intended to
accelerate the use of knowledge.
Overall, it is in the U. S. interest to serve as "schoolhouse to the
world," to provide graduate education in science and engineer-
ing to the brightest students, no matter where they come from.
The real issue is not the number of foreign students training in
U. S. graduate schools, but rather the reduced proportion of U. S.
students taking advanced training, especially in engineering.
Incentives are needed to make advanced training in several fields
of science and engineering more attractive to U.S. students.
Issues for the Congress
Even this briefsummary of severalpersonne! issues in national
science and technology makes it clear thatpublicpolicy is only one
factor in dealing with them. Others include marketforces of supply
and demand, economic cycles, individuallperceptions of promising
careers, and thepolicies offoreigugovernments with regard to their
brightest students. Further, there are other issues of comparable
importance, such asproviding thefullest opportunitiesfor women
and minorities to contribute to the health and vigor ofthe research
enterprise. Within these limits, there are a number of issues in this
area for the Congress to consider:
· federalprograms andpolicies that would help to minimize the
impact of and reduce the cyclical fluctuations in the mismatch
between the supply and demandfor young investigators;
· additional programs, complementing the Presidential Young
Investigators Awards, to help young researchers begin their
careers; and,
27
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
lion, including capital cost recovery as a part of the operating
budget of a federal grant or contract.
Issues in Genetic Engineering
In a short time, recombinant DNA and the related techniques
of molecular biology have generated remarkable advances in
basic biological research. These efforts are on the verge of yield-
ing promising applications in clinical medicine, veterinary medi-
cine, agriculture, energy, and pollution control.
Several federal agencies are assessing the impacts of applica-
tions that require the use of genetically altered organisms in
environments less well controlled than those in research labo-
ratories. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency is
trying to develop its own capabilities for assessing potential
ecological and health effects, for monitoring organisms and
genomes in various environmental media, and for devising effec-
tive control technologies. These efforts are overseen by the
Federal Interagency Recombinant DNA Committee. The Re-
combinant DNA Advisory Committee ofthe National Institutes
of Health still exercises the main responsibility for supervision of
research protocols.
The need to coordinate the policies of the federal agencies
whose responsibilities encompass various applications was rec-
ognized in the recent publication for comment in the December
3l, 1984, Federal Register of a "Proposal for a Coordinated
Framework for Regulation of Biotechnology," prepared by the
Cabinet Council Working Group in Biotechnology. This pro-
posal describes the policies of the major regulatory agencies that
review biotechnology research and products. It also provides a
regulatory matrix, outlining the applicable laws, regulations,
and guidelines.
The pattern establishecl in the late 1970's federal guidelines
for research and specific risk assessment experiments for
determining potential ecological hazards remains useful.
Altered microorganisms can be tested in the laboratory first and
then in well-controlled field! sites, before release into the general
environment. Using such test environments, scientists can de
40
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SELEC TED ISS UES
vise effective means of monitoring the fate of the organism and
. · ~
its specific genes.
Issues for the Congress
Two major related issues continue to be:
· maintaining oversight of what have been remarkably effective
mechanisms for monitoring the use of recombinant DNA and
related technologies; and
· assuring ~! and balanced consideration of requirements for
public safety and the needs and opportunities of an emerging
industry.
Issues in Human Biology
Many discussions of new biological techniques involving re-
production and human genes have been subject to misinterpreta-
tion. A description of a potential application sometimes de-
volves, incorrectly, into an assumption that the application
actually is possible or indeed is on the verge of being put into
practice. Also, it is difficult to emphasize sufficiently that the
spectacular successes achieved in isolating and copying certain
human genes leave unsolved the much more difficult tasks of
inserting these genes into the right cell and the right DNA
position, and then having them function properly. Further, the
differences between the genetic content of germline and somatic
cells the first transmissible from parent to offspring and the
second not are often lost in the discussion. Yet, such differences
are vast in terms of the technical difficulties of gaining access to
and engineering genes, the possible risks, and the accompanying
social and ethical considerations.
There are two areas in which new biological techniques do or
may have roles. First, the fertilization of human eggs outside the
body and their subsequent implantation is a technology that is in
use but that suffers from a He facto ban in the United States on
research to understand it better. Second, consideration needs to
be given to potential techniques, typically classed as genetic
engineering, involving human somatic and germline cells.
41
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
In Vitro Fertilization and Implantation of Human Eggs
Based on data reported informally at a recent international
conference, this technology is in substantial use already as a
treatment for infertility. There are now about 200 centers worId-
wide. Of these 200 centers, 50 are in the United States and about
70 have been in existence over one year. About 500 children have
been born through these techniques. Many more embryo trans-
fers have been carried out about 7,50~but pregnancy does
not always ensue. About 24,000 human eggs have been collected
at these centers. This has been possible, in part, because hormone
treatments allow women to produce more than one egg cell per
ovulation.
Against this reality of a robust technology is the fact that there
are substantial gaps in knowledge of the underlying science,
especially of the embryo. For example, a fairly new technique is
to remove a few cells from a very early embryo, one that is still a
solid sphere of cells, freeze the embryo, and check the separated
ceils for chromosomal abnormalities. Assuming no problems,
the embryo can then be implanted. Several children have been
born through this technique, and three clinics in the United
States are using it. Yet, we have little basic knowledge of the
effects of freezing and thawing on the embryo or of the removal
of a few cells.
Part of the problem is a de facto ban on federally funded fetal
research. All such research must be approved by a board of the
Public Health Service. But the board does not exist; no members
have been appointed.
Genetic Therapy of Human Cells*
Engineering of somatic cells such as bone marrow cells-is
similar to that of germline cells-eggs and sperm. In each case, a
gene being transferred must (~) be put inside the appropriate cell,
* Useful background on this issue, especially on therapy involving somatic
cells, is provided in the recent report by the congressional Office of Technology
Assessment entitled Human Gene Therapy.
42
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SELECTED ISSUES
and (2) be positioned properly
into the cell's DNA. Beyond these
generalities, there are major and important differences.
Somatic Cells. Genetic therapy with somatic cells is likely to
begin with bone marrow cells. These cells are accessible, can be
grown in the laboratory, and can be transferred successfully into
a patient's bone marrow. Further, there are very serious genetic
diseases in which the genetic defect is both relatively simple (for
example, a single defect involving a single gene) and may be
treatable through bone marrow cells. In contrast, genetic defects
involving multiple genes, brain and nerve cells, or several differ-
ent kinds of cells are much more difficult to treat and are not
likely candidates for initial therapies.
A spectrum of techniques exists for transferring genes into a
cell. Each has its limits, with the use of certain types of viruses
being the most promising at the moment. However, no methods
exist yet to deliver a donated gene with certainty to the targeted
region of the recipient cell's DNA; nor are there methods to
regulate precisely the expression of a properly inserted gene.
These and other factors in genetic therapy with human somatic
cells are articulated in a recent statement, entitled "Points to
Consider in the Design and Submission of Somatic-Cell Gene
Therapy Protocols, " by the National Institutes of Health Work-
ing Group on Human Gene Therapy.
Germline Cells. Several laboratories have been able to trans-
fer genes into fertilized mouse eggs, which then develop in utero
into living animals. The transferred genes are expressed in differ-
ent tissues of these "transgenic" animals and are inherited by
subsequent generations. Such experiments are providing new
insights in developmental biology and tumorigenesis. These
procedures are now being extended to farm animals.
In the case of humans, no experiments of this kind have been
attempted nor, in contrast to gene transfer in somatic cells, is
there consensus on the potential usefulness of germline therapy
in human genetic disorders. Aside from the critical ethical ques-
tions raised by heritable modification of the human germline,
there are also severe technical limitations. For example, it is not
43
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THE OUTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 1985
possible yet to target genes into their correct position in recipient
cells; therefore, gene expression is unpredictable and possible
deleterious effects of the random insertion of genes cannot be
excluded.
Issues for the Congress
Overall, the immediate prospects forgermline therapy are non-
existent, and the long-term prospects are highly problematical.
The outlook for somatic therapy is brighter, but it stillfaces major
technical difficulties.
The issues in the area of human biology include:
~
· maintaining oversight through the National Institutes of
Health of plans for human gene therapy; and
· encouraging programs to enlarge J;~ndamental understanding
offetal biology.
in. . .. . ~
Scientific Communication, Technology Transfer,
and National Security
The scientific and technological strengths of the United States
depend in part on the rapid and free exchange of information.
Ante Is concern In the aetense and intelligence communities,
however, that this openness may be of military benefit to the
Warsaw Pact countries. Part ofthat concern, focused on academ-
ic research supported by the government, was addressed in Sep-
tember 1982, in a report ofthe Committee on Science, Engineer-
ing, and Public Policy (COSEPUP), entitled Scientific Communi-
cation and National Security (also known as the Corson report,
after its chairman, Dale R. Corson).
The Corson Pane} limited itself to questions involving aca-
demic science, leaving unresolved the complementary issue of
the communication and transfer of industrial science and tech-
nology. It drew two major conclusions: first, a national strategy
of"security by secrecy" is flawed because there is no practical
way to restrict international scientific communication without
disrupting domestic scientific communication, which inevitably
weakens American capabilities in military and civilian technolo
44
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SELECTED ISSUES
gies; and, second, that a national strategy of"security by
accomplishment" i. e., one that emphasizes protecting the U. S.
technological lead by aggressively promoting scientific and tech-
nical productivity is a far better alternative. The panel also
outlined "gray areas," categories of technologies that, by their
nature, could not be either completely open or totally classified.
Much discussion followed upon the release of the report, both
within and outside the government. But implementation has not
followed and the problem has remained unresolved.
The Department of Defense
In the spring of 1984, the Department of Defense (DOD)
proposed an alternative policy that, in lieu of"gray areas,"
returned to a basic "black and white" approach whereby DOD
research contracts would stipulate whether a particular project
was open or classified. Many in the scientific community wel-
comed this as a positive development, although most have re-
served judgment until the new policy is formally adopted and
implemented.
In view of the prevailing federal policy on classification (that
information must be restricted whenever there is reasonable
doubt about the need for its protection), the government may be
inclined to adopt a more conservative approach when deciding
whether to classify militarily sensitive research for example, on
microelectronics or composite materials that heretofore has
been completely or partially unrestricted. Moreover, most re-
search universities have standing policies against classified re-
search projects on campus, except during national emergencies.
Since most universities do not maintain secure off-campus facili-
ties, there is the possibility that these institutions might with-
draw from certain types of research sponsored by the Depart-
ment of Defense.
The Department of Commerce
While the Department of Defense has been developing poli-
cies for the control of information resulting from federally fund
45
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
ed research, the Department of Commerce has been working on
a revision of the Export Administration Regulations, particular-
ly the portion dealing with the export of technical data. This
effort has been undertaken in parallel with congressional debate
on new statutory language for the Export Control Act. These
two initiatives may have a far greater impact on international
technology transfer than the new DOD policy. Whereas the
DOD policy affects only work done directly under contract to
the department, changes in the export regulations affect every-
thing involved in or related to any movement of products,
processes, data, or expertise outside the borders of the United
States. The Department of Commerce has acquiesced recently to
DOD's insistence that the latter has the rights of review and
timely refusal of export licenses.
From the narrow standpoint of scientific communication, the
proposed revision ofthe Export Control Act creates the possibil-
ity teat individual researchers would be required to obtain vali
dated export licenses each time they planned to give a lecture,
participate in a symposium, or work in a laboratory where
foreigners were to be present and where so-called "militarily
critical technical data" were to be presented or discussed. Any of
these activities would constitute an "export." A similar obliga-
tion would exist whenever the research deals with critical techni
cal data and the researchers plan to travel, to publish abroad, or,
using this logic, to publish in U.S. journals read by foreign
scientists. The net effect would be the regulation of scientific
communication by the Export Control Act.
The implications ofthese new restrictions on the private sector
may be equally profound. For example, the communication of
technical data to and from the foreign offices, subsidiaries, affili-
ates, and suppliers of integrated, transnational corporations is
central to their global nature. If these data flows were restricted,
corporate research, development, and sales efforts would be
inhibited. Similarly, the ability of a company to compete in
world markets is based, in part, on its capacity to deliver a
product, service (and related knowledge), or technical data in
timely and unrestricted fashion. Particularly for the so-called
"dual use" technologies (those that have both military and com
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mercial applications), the new regulations may restrict severely
the freedom of companies to reveal technical data or specifica-
tions at sales meetings or, in some cases, even to market a
product. Many in industry have expressed their concern about
these proposed changes in the export regulations. They have
urged officials at the Department of Commerce and other agen-
cies to engage in broader consultation and public debate before
implementing them.
Another aspect of the problem pertains to the multilateral
control of technology transfer by and/or between free-world,
industrialized countries. Some in private industry argue that,
because the policies of other industrialized countries toward their
own companies are generally more liberal, current U. S. national
security export controls succeed only in damaging the ability of
American companies to compete for their share ofthe market for
high-technology international trade and there is no gain from the
security standpoint. This brings into question the effectiveness of
CoCom, the International Coordinating Committee on Multi-
lateral Export Controls, which has evolved over the years in a
largely ad hoc, incremental manner.
Issues for the Congress
The sometimes contending and equally legitimate aims of
protecting the nation's security, enhancing the U.S. competitive
position in international markets, andprotectingfreedom of scien-
tific communication raise difficult and durable issues. As a result,
COSEPUP has initiated a new study to address those issues,
entitled The Impact of National Security Controls on Interna-
tional Technology Transfer. Thepanel, to be chaired by Dr. Lew
Allen, Director of the California Institute of Technology'sJet
Propulsion Laboratory, andformer Air Force ChiefofStaffand
Director ofthe National Security Agency, will complete its work
within the timeframe ofthe 99th Congress. Hop Emily, this stubbly
will assist the Congress in its efforts to develope clearpolicies to:
· protect the interests of national security;
· promotefreedom of exchange of basic scientific information;
and
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
· reconcile corporate needs to transmit technical data and sell
products and processes internationally with the requirements of
national security.
Global Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions
Several studies of the global atmospheric effects of nuclear
explosions have appeared, among the most recent being the
December 1984 report of the National Research Council (NRC)
entitled The Effects on the Atmosphere of a Major Nuclear Exchange.
These reports agree that a major nuclear exchange could alter the
atmosphere seriously, at least for the short term. The precise
effects depend on such variables as the season, the sites and yields
of detonations, the altitudes at which explosions occur, the
amount and nature of the smoke produced, and the ways in
which soot particles are scavenged and rain out, especially from
the upper atmosphere.
Such uncertainties make it difficult to state firm conclusions.
As the NRC report pointed out:
All calculations of the atmospheric effects of a major nuclear war
require quantitative assumptions about uncertain physical parameters.
In many areas, wide ranges of values are scientifically credible, and the
overall results depend materially on the values chosen. Some of these
uncertainties may be reduced by further empirical or theoretical re-
search, but others will be difficult to reduce.
Why do these studies? One answer is that strategic thinking-
and world opinion-may be affected aIrearly by the prospects of
a "nuclear winter" and other possible climatic changes. As Her-
bert Simon writing in Science and others have pointed out, the
strategic implications of the nuclear winter hypothesis have not
yet been examined to the depth required. Whatever the implica-
tions, it is imperative that they rest on adequate information and
well-based estimates. As the NRC report stated:
Long-term atmospheric consequences imply additional problems that
are not easily mitigated by prior preparedness and that are not in
harmony with any notion of rapid postwar restoration of social struc
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SELECTED ISSUES
sure. They also create an entirely new threat to populations far removed
from target areas, and suggest the possibility of additional major risks
for any nation that itselfinitiates use of nuclear weapons, even if nuclear
retaliation should somehow be limited.
Some have argued recently that the nuclear winter hypothesis
has implications for strategic defense, arms control, first-strike
effects, target selection, and techniques of battle management.
Given that the nuclear winter hypothesis has been overlooked for
decades, are there other consequences of nuclear detonations not
yet considered?
The need then is to identify all possible consequences, to
narrow uncertainties, ant! to obtain credible, quantitative, and
reasonably accurate estimates of what might happen to the
atmosphere in a nuclear exchange. That research has begun; it
. .
neec s continuing support.
Issues for the Congress
The immediate issues concerning research on the prospects of a
"nuclear winter" are straightforward:
· adequate support must be provider! to conduct the research
program caZledfor in recent reports;
· all research findings should be public, within the legitimate
constraints of national! security; and
· the scientific community should be engagedfully, not only in
planning and conducting the research program but also in apprais-
ing its quality and implications.
Final Comment
This Outlook has highlighted important progress in some
selected fields of science and technology. It has defined a number
of issues and opportunities that relate to this progress and to
national goals. The Outlook records new contributions to sever-
al problems once seemingly insurmountable, from cancer to the
global devastation wrought by parasitic disease. American sci-
ence and technology continue to display strength and leadership.
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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985
These essential qualities will be sustained only if timely attention
is given to the basic resources needed, from instrumentation and
facilities to the research climate and training for young investiga-
tors. in sum, the course of the nation's research system, and the
magnitude of its contributions to meeting national goals, con-
tinues to depend on the wisdom, support, and guidance of the
federal government.
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
selected issues
