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PART II An Outline of Selected Issues This second part of the 1985 Outlook highlights several issues, abstracted either from the fields discussed in Part I or from reports and discussions within the National Research Council or the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. The intent is to articulate national concerns involving science and technology. Within that broad purpose, two caveats apply to the issues discussed: (~) they constitute a selected rather than a com- prehensive listing, and (2) they are described in outline rather - than in detail, to keep this report brief. Within these limits, the issues are: international competition in science and technology; scientific and engineering personnel; cooperative work across disciplines; research and transportation; facilities and instrumentation; . . # . . Issues In genetic engineering; issues in human biology; 17

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 scientific communication, technology transfer, and national secur- ity; and giohal atmospheric effects of nuclear explosions. International Competition in Science and Technology As emphasized most recently in the report by the President's Commission on industrial Competitiveness, the nation's ability to compete in global markets depends on several interlocking elements, among them the ability to create, apply, and protect new technology; an adequate supply of productive capital; a well-educated and flexible work force; and increased policy em- phasis on international trade. These multiple elements represent difficult tasks for legislators and policymakers. This section concentrates on one aspect of them: improving the nation's competitive strength in science and technology. It does this by using three examples taken from Part of this report, all of them economically important: supercom- puters, biochemical engineering, and advanced polymeric com- pos~tes. Supercomputers Rapidly developing microelectronic technology and computer architectures have created the bases for major advances in com- putational speeds. Such revolutionary changes are crucial to maintaining U. S. leadership in many scientific and technological areas. However, they also will expose the U. S. computer indus- try to new international challenges as rapid fluctuations in prod- uct price and performance undermine the predictable customer preferences that have characterized the industry. Given this context, it is essential that the United States look to the solidity of its technological position. That position needs to be measured continually against developments abroad and strengthened judiciously where weaknesses are found. Major supercomputer technology initiatives are under way in three agencies the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the 18

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SELECTED ISSUES Department of Energy (DOE). These activities need to be accelerated and coordinated carefully to ensure both a systematic exploration of significant design alternatives and a rapid transla- tion of successful designs into commercial production. Also vital is the early involvement of the major user communities- especially the research universities in the development of soft- ware and utilization expertise for the new machines. Although DARPA has the leading role in funding major de- velopment projects in computing, the DOE role in the develop- ment of scientific supercomputing will be crucial also, especially in view of the latter's traditionally strong ties to the research community. In addition, the basic research programs of the NSF, which contribute to the conceptual and algorithmic bases for new styles of supercomputing, and the NSF computer access program, which will put the new machines into the hands of the broad scientific communities that must pioneer their use, are very important and need to be kept strong. Access to supercom- puters is becoming indispensable to frontier research in a grow- ing number of scientific and engineering fields, among them fusion research, quantum chemistry, particle physics, materials ~. ~. . science, petroleum exu~orat~on~ and process technology. . ~ .~ , .& ~ ~ Early industrial participation in these developments is impera- tive. Means of increasing cooperation between the computer industry and university and national laboratory research groups should be explored vigorously by the federal agencies that fund major supercomputer development. To allow time for familiarization and formation of strong technology-transfer links, cooperation among the different sectors should be encour- aged in the early stages of computer design. Administrative obstacles to research collaboration between companies and to the commercialization of experimental products need to be reex- amined. Extremely high computation rates often can be attained efficiently by tailoring electronic hardware to the requirements of particular computer-intensive applications. Such special de- sign efforts have become a significant component of computer research that needs to be recognized explicitly and cultivated systematically. In this area, the breadth and many-sided in 19

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 genuity of the U. S. academic and commercial communities can be exploited to gain competitive advantage. To do this, high- quality design tools and fabrication systems need to be widely available. A component of the DARPA Strategic Computing Program will acldress this issue, but a supplementary NSF pro- gram aimed at making the resulting design facilities available to the entire U. S. computer science community also may be appro- priate. Increased attempts by the United States to learn from foreign developments, especially in Japan, are prudent in view of Japanese strength in certain lines of integrated circuit fabrication and current reports of rapidly growing capabilities in software. Much more systematic collection and translation of Japanese technical literature are called for. Of course, there are other elements in the international compe- tition in supercomputers that are not included in this brief dis- cussion. These include: the appropriate role of government and industry in implementing the new computer architectures designed in the universities; for example, what would be the respective roles of government and industry in what is usually considered applied research and development?; problems arising from limited industrial access to supercom- puters; assuring continuity for recent attempts by the federal government to increase access to supercomputers by academic . . sclentlsts; financial and other incentives for U. S. companies to develop a new generation of supercomputers; and the level of software development needed to ensure optimal application of parallel architectures. Biochemical Engineering Several countries are trying to develop strong biochemical engineering industries. West Germany, Japan, and Great Britain have national institutes for biotechnology. Such investments are driven by the economic potential of biochemical engineering. 20

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SELEC TED ISS UES For example, it is estimated that global markets for biological products will run from $40 to $100 billion annually by the year 2000, or about 15 percent of the total annual market for chemi- cals. The United States has a strong capacity for leadership in biochemical engineering, owing largely to the basic research conducted in American laboratories. Achieving that leadership requires a wider knowledge base than is now available, greater numbers of trained personnel, support for pilot studies of biochemical engineering processes, and working connections between basic biological research and engineering practice. The knowledge needed has been summarized in Part I. Engi- neering personnel needs can be expressed as a shortage of both competent biochemical engineers and the faculty to train them. These personnel problems are worsening as biochemical engi- neering companies absorb both faculty members and recent graduates who have research and teaching talents. A second difficulty derives from the fact that many biotechnology com- panies tend to be small and oriented toward research and devel- opment, so that they do not have a sufficient variety of large- volume products to support the development of new pilot pro- cesses and large-scale production facilities. Further, the govern- ment, not currently a major buyer of biochemical engineering products, may see no reason for supporting pilot studies. The result may be a lack of both corporate resources and governmen- tal rationale to initiate new production processes. Overall, an issue for congressional consideration is strength- ening the links between life scientists and biochemical engineers. Mechanisms might include: support for cooperative cross-disciplinary research; institutional grants to train graduate students; funds to enable academic units to purchase the equipment essential for contemporary research in biochemical engineering; and incentives for quality faculty to dedicate their careers to launching innovative university instructional and research pro- grams. 21

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 Advanced Polymeric Composites While the United States has a sound position in advanced polymeric composites, vigorous programs also are proceeding in Japan and West Germany. The United States is strong in the chemistry of these materials, in their materials engineering, and in their application; Japan dominates in many aspects of carbon fiber technology. As with computers and biochemical engineering, the best response of the United States is not necessarily to mimic interna- tional competitors. Rather, the effective transfer of information among basic, applied, and developmental activities is needed, as are mechanisms to enable different disciplines to work coopera- tively on materials problems. Such disciplines include chemistry, physics, mechanical and chemical engineering, materials science, computer science, and toxicology. Only about 30 universities have research programs in advanced composites; of these, only two have multidisciplinary groups in the area. There are only 40 full-time equivalent faculty members in this field nationally. In terms of national policy, a major issue is the creation of several research centers devoted to basic research on advanced composites. The goals of such centers could be to: carry out high-quality scientific and engineering research; perform toxicologic assessments; provide scientists and engineers trained in specific disciplines for research on advanced composites; and infuse engineering curricula with new knowledge. Issues for the Congress These three felds computers, biochemical engineering, and advanced composites-illustrate both special needs and general guidelinesfor maintaining their strengths. Thegeneral lessonsfor effectiveprogress, which are applicable to otherields, include the need for: complementary competence both in the basic science and in the dievelopmental engineering, inclu~lingpersonne'trained in both the fundamental science and the engineeringprinciples underlying new technologies; and! 22

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SELECTED ISSUES mechanisms to link different disciplines with each other, uni- versities with industry, and basic scientists with technologists. An additional issue for the Congress to consider is: the extent to which the expansion of technological programs for defense is creating shortages of trained personnel in areas critical to our international competitiveness. Scientific and Engineering Personnel Only a few issues are discussed under this broad topic. These issues include the real difficulties of a young investigator trying to begin a career in research; the paucity of clinician-researchers; possible shortages of trained research personnel some five years from now; and the role of foreign nationals in U.S. advanced education in science and engineering. Starting a Research Career There is, typically, a cyclical pattern to surpluses and shortages of trained research personnel relative to job opportunities. The system tends to adjust to small oscillations; on occasion, the swings become quite large and require national attention. Thus, we now face severe shortages of computer science and engineer- ing faculties as a result of insufficient numbers of doctorates in these fields and the large competition from industry. In contrast, upon completing their training in biomedical re- search, many young people cannot fine! suitable openings and support to continue their research careers. Specifically, the con- cern is with research trainees in their mid-20's to mid-30's; thatis, those who are doing much of the experimental work in fast- moving research fields, such as those described in Part I- oncogenes, atherosclerosis, and parasitology. Similar difficulties were seen in physics in the early 1970's and in mathematics in the late 1970's. The NSF postdoctoral program in mathematics, instituted to prevent the loss of a generation of gifted young mathematicians, may be applicable to other fields of science. Several consequences follow. Promising students may turn 23

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 away from biomedical research in favor of more secure and remunerative careers. Some of the best academic departments admit and train far fewer individuals than their pool of qualified applicants, faculties, and facilities permits. The overall impact- as in other fields of science eventually may be an insufficient flow of young people into research careers and slower progress in exploiting research advances. The Institute of Medicine's Committee on National Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel observed that this problem cannot be solved solely at the training level and that it is addressed more effectively in terms of funds available to support faculty members and their research programs. The cost of equipment to set up a new investigator in many branches of science and engineering now runs into hundreds of thousands of dollars. These funds must come from institutional resources. This precludes many universities from making ap- pointments. Even those research universities with the greatest financial resources are finding it difficult to meet these costs. The result is a pattern of shifting away from bringing young investi- gators into the system in favor of attracting establisher! investiga- tors who are better able to bring external resources with them. Clinicians in Research A related concern is the declining number of clinicians entering research. Yet, cTinician-researchers are indispensable for pro- gress in areas such as the biology of atherosclerosis, discussed earlier. Current clinical training programs in universities offer both inadequate salaries to trainees and uncertainty of continued support. The fact that fewer clinicians are entering research undermines the transfer of basic research to clinical practice and lessens the contributions of physicians in directing research into the proper channels for understanding and managing human diseases. Possible Shortages Beyond these immediate problems affecting the sufficiency of research personnel, several more may be in the offing. Student 24

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SELEC TED ISS UES enrollments reflect job opportunities. Thus, the numbers of bachelors' degrees awarded in computer sciences rose from 5,600 in 1976 to 15,000 in 1982, while in engineering the figures were 45,000 and 74,000, respectively. In contrast, the numbers of recipients of bachelors' degrees in mathematics dropped from 15,800 to 10,900 between 1976 and 1983; the corresponding figures in the biological sciences were 54,000 and 43,000, respectively. The diminishing pool of students from which candidates for doctorates and postdoctoral work in various fields will be drawn five years from now could lead to shortages of trained personnel for universities and industry in the 1990's. Doctorates for Non- U. S. Citizens Five percent more doctorates in science and engineering were awarded in the United States in 1983 than in 1978. Virtually all of this increase is accounted for by degrees given to non-U.S. citizens on temporary visas. Overall, about 20 percent of all doctoral degrees in science and engineering in 1983 were earned by those holding temporary visas. In the same year, more engi- neering doctorates were awarded to foreign citizens than to U. S. citizens; 38 percent ofthe doctoral degrees in mathematics and 35 percent in the agricultural sciences went to foreign students. Overall, the proportion of master's and doctoral (legrees awarded to foreign students relative to American students has increased substantially in engineering, but has plateaued or fallen slightly in the physical and biological sciences. In actual num- bers, graduate enrollments in engineering increased from 36,000 in 1976 to 53,000 in 1983. Ofthese, there were 24,000 and 31,000 U.S. citizens, respectively. That reflects a 30 percent increase, compared to an 80 percent increase in foreign graduate students . . . In engineering. Much of the increase in numbers of foreign graduate students enrolled in science and engineering is a direct consequence of the normalization of relations with the People's Republic of China in 1979. Improvement of higher education in the People's Republic was adopted at the Fourth National People's Congress held in January 1975 as a part of Premier Chou En-Lai's doctrine of"four modernizations. " In 1984, China (including Taiwan) led all other 25

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 foreign countries in the number of doctorates awarded to non- U.S. citizens in engineering and science, with the exception of the social sciences. The number of doctorates awarded to Chinese nationals in electrical engineering in that year is particu- larly impressive. How good are these foreign students? One measure is their scores on Graduate Record Examinations (GRE). On average, foreign students enter U. S. doctoral institutions with quantita- tive skills, as measured by the GRE, exceeding those of U.S. students. The differential is smallest for students in the mathema- tical and physical sciences and greatest for students in the social sciences. The higher performance of foreign students on the GRE quantitative examination may reflect the higher selectivity in the application and admission of foreign graduate students compared with U.S. students. Understandably, foreign stu- dents, for whom English is a second language, perform less well than do U.S. students on the GRE verbal examination. There are benefits and possible costs to this major participation by foreigners in U. S. graduate education in science and engineer- ing. The benefits to the United States are substantial; they in- clude the exposure of a new generation of foreign scientists and engineers to American society and culture, the opportunity for American faculties and students to gain foreign perspectives on current research, and the improvement of international scientific and engineering communication. In some instances, the presence offoreign students has made up for Tow enrollments of American students and faculty shortages, and helped to meet industrial needs. Thus, a substantial proportion-56 percent in 198~of foreign doctoral recipients are remaining in the United States, in academia, or industry. There are also some possible costs. Foreign students who do not return home after being educated in the United States are a "brain drain," particularly for less cleveloped countries. While the opportunity to remain in the United States usually presents greater opportunities for research, the home country is denied the benefit of science and technology transfer for development. Further, a higher proportion of graduate teaching and research assistants for whom English is a second language reduces the 26

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SELEC TED ISS UES effectiveness of teaching at American universities and may even deter promising American students from taking advanced de- grees. The greater availability of foreign students, often with financial support in hand, may decrease the incentive to recruit promising American students. Finally, and more subtly, foreign students and faculty members often have a theoretical rather than an experimental bent, a difference that may affect both the direc- tions of future research and the efficacy of programs intended to accelerate the use of knowledge. Overall, it is in the U. S. interest to serve as "schoolhouse to the world," to provide graduate education in science and engineer- ing to the brightest students, no matter where they come from. The real issue is not the number of foreign students training in U. S. graduate schools, but rather the reduced proportion of U. S. students taking advanced training, especially in engineering. Incentives are needed to make advanced training in several fields of science and engineering more attractive to U.S. students. Issues for the Congress Even this briefsummary of severalpersonne! issues in national science and technology makes it clear thatpublicpolicy is only one factor in dealing with them. Others include marketforces of supply and demand, economic cycles, individuallperceptions of promising careers, and thepolicies offoreigugovernments with regard to their brightest students. Further, there are other issues of comparable importance, such asproviding thefullest opportunitiesfor women and minorities to contribute to the health and vigor ofthe research enterprise. Within these limits, there are a number of issues in this area for the Congress to consider: federalprograms andpolicies that would help to minimize the impact of and reduce the cyclical fluctuations in the mismatch between the supply and demandfor young investigators; additional programs, complementing the Presidential Young Investigators Awards, to help young researchers begin their careers; and, 27

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 lion, including capital cost recovery as a part of the operating budget of a federal grant or contract. Issues in Genetic Engineering In a short time, recombinant DNA and the related techniques of molecular biology have generated remarkable advances in basic biological research. These efforts are on the verge of yield- ing promising applications in clinical medicine, veterinary medi- cine, agriculture, energy, and pollution control. Several federal agencies are assessing the impacts of applica- tions that require the use of genetically altered organisms in environments less well controlled than those in research labo- ratories. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency is trying to develop its own capabilities for assessing potential ecological and health effects, for monitoring organisms and genomes in various environmental media, and for devising effec- tive control technologies. These efforts are overseen by the Federal Interagency Recombinant DNA Committee. The Re- combinant DNA Advisory Committee ofthe National Institutes of Health still exercises the main responsibility for supervision of research protocols. The need to coordinate the policies of the federal agencies whose responsibilities encompass various applications was rec- ognized in the recent publication for comment in the December 3l, 1984, Federal Register of a "Proposal for a Coordinated Framework for Regulation of Biotechnology," prepared by the Cabinet Council Working Group in Biotechnology. This pro- posal describes the policies of the major regulatory agencies that review biotechnology research and products. It also provides a regulatory matrix, outlining the applicable laws, regulations, and guidelines. The pattern establishecl in the late 1970's federal guidelines for research and specific risk assessment experiments for determining potential ecological hazards remains useful. Altered microorganisms can be tested in the laboratory first and then in well-controlled field! sites, before release into the general environment. Using such test environments, scientists can de 40

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SELEC TED ISS UES vise effective means of monitoring the fate of the organism and . ~ its specific genes. Issues for the Congress Two major related issues continue to be: maintaining oversight of what have been remarkably effective mechanisms for monitoring the use of recombinant DNA and related technologies; and assuring ~! and balanced consideration of requirements for public safety and the needs and opportunities of an emerging industry. Issues in Human Biology Many discussions of new biological techniques involving re- production and human genes have been subject to misinterpreta- tion. A description of a potential application sometimes de- volves, incorrectly, into an assumption that the application actually is possible or indeed is on the verge of being put into practice. Also, it is difficult to emphasize sufficiently that the spectacular successes achieved in isolating and copying certain human genes leave unsolved the much more difficult tasks of inserting these genes into the right cell and the right DNA position, and then having them function properly. Further, the differences between the genetic content of germline and somatic cells the first transmissible from parent to offspring and the second not are often lost in the discussion. Yet, such differences are vast in terms of the technical difficulties of gaining access to and engineering genes, the possible risks, and the accompanying social and ethical considerations. There are two areas in which new biological techniques do or may have roles. First, the fertilization of human eggs outside the body and their subsequent implantation is a technology that is in use but that suffers from a He facto ban in the United States on research to understand it better. Second, consideration needs to be given to potential techniques, typically classed as genetic engineering, involving human somatic and germline cells. 41

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 In Vitro Fertilization and Implantation of Human Eggs Based on data reported informally at a recent international conference, this technology is in substantial use already as a treatment for infertility. There are now about 200 centers worId- wide. Of these 200 centers, 50 are in the United States and about 70 have been in existence over one year. About 500 children have been born through these techniques. Many more embryo trans- fers have been carried out about 7,50~but pregnancy does not always ensue. About 24,000 human eggs have been collected at these centers. This has been possible, in part, because hormone treatments allow women to produce more than one egg cell per ovulation. Against this reality of a robust technology is the fact that there are substantial gaps in knowledge of the underlying science, especially of the embryo. For example, a fairly new technique is to remove a few cells from a very early embryo, one that is still a solid sphere of cells, freeze the embryo, and check the separated ceils for chromosomal abnormalities. Assuming no problems, the embryo can then be implanted. Several children have been born through this technique, and three clinics in the United States are using it. Yet, we have little basic knowledge of the effects of freezing and thawing on the embryo or of the removal of a few cells. Part of the problem is a de facto ban on federally funded fetal research. All such research must be approved by a board of the Public Health Service. But the board does not exist; no members have been appointed. Genetic Therapy of Human Cells* Engineering of somatic cells such as bone marrow cells-is similar to that of germline cells-eggs and sperm. In each case, a gene being transferred must (~) be put inside the appropriate cell, * Useful background on this issue, especially on therapy involving somatic cells, is provided in the recent report by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment entitled Human Gene Therapy. 42

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SELECTED ISSUES and (2) be positioned properly into the cell's DNA. Beyond these generalities, there are major and important differences. Somatic Cells. Genetic therapy with somatic cells is likely to begin with bone marrow cells. These cells are accessible, can be grown in the laboratory, and can be transferred successfully into a patient's bone marrow. Further, there are very serious genetic diseases in which the genetic defect is both relatively simple (for example, a single defect involving a single gene) and may be treatable through bone marrow cells. In contrast, genetic defects involving multiple genes, brain and nerve cells, or several differ- ent kinds of cells are much more difficult to treat and are not likely candidates for initial therapies. A spectrum of techniques exists for transferring genes into a cell. Each has its limits, with the use of certain types of viruses being the most promising at the moment. However, no methods exist yet to deliver a donated gene with certainty to the targeted region of the recipient cell's DNA; nor are there methods to regulate precisely the expression of a properly inserted gene. These and other factors in genetic therapy with human somatic cells are articulated in a recent statement, entitled "Points to Consider in the Design and Submission of Somatic-Cell Gene Therapy Protocols, " by the National Institutes of Health Work- ing Group on Human Gene Therapy. Germline Cells. Several laboratories have been able to trans- fer genes into fertilized mouse eggs, which then develop in utero into living animals. The transferred genes are expressed in differ- ent tissues of these "transgenic" animals and are inherited by subsequent generations. Such experiments are providing new insights in developmental biology and tumorigenesis. These procedures are now being extended to farm animals. In the case of humans, no experiments of this kind have been attempted nor, in contrast to gene transfer in somatic cells, is there consensus on the potential usefulness of germline therapy in human genetic disorders. Aside from the critical ethical ques- tions raised by heritable modification of the human germline, there are also severe technical limitations. For example, it is not 43

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THE OUTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 1985 possible yet to target genes into their correct position in recipient cells; therefore, gene expression is unpredictable and possible deleterious effects of the random insertion of genes cannot be excluded. Issues for the Congress Overall, the immediate prospects forgermline therapy are non- existent, and the long-term prospects are highly problematical. The outlook for somatic therapy is brighter, but it stillfaces major technical difficulties. The issues in the area of human biology include: ~ maintaining oversight through the National Institutes of Health of plans for human gene therapy; and encouraging programs to enlarge J;~ndamental understanding offetal biology. in. . .. . ~ Scientific Communication, Technology Transfer, and National Security The scientific and technological strengths of the United States depend in part on the rapid and free exchange of information. Ante Is concern In the aetense and intelligence communities, however, that this openness may be of military benefit to the Warsaw Pact countries. Part ofthat concern, focused on academ- ic research supported by the government, was addressed in Sep- tember 1982, in a report ofthe Committee on Science, Engineer- ing, and Public Policy (COSEPUP), entitled Scientific Communi- cation and National Security (also known as the Corson report, after its chairman, Dale R. Corson). The Corson Pane} limited itself to questions involving aca- demic science, leaving unresolved the complementary issue of the communication and transfer of industrial science and tech- nology. It drew two major conclusions: first, a national strategy of"security by secrecy" is flawed because there is no practical way to restrict international scientific communication without disrupting domestic scientific communication, which inevitably weakens American capabilities in military and civilian technolo 44

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SELECTED ISSUES gies; and, second, that a national strategy of"security by accomplishment" i. e., one that emphasizes protecting the U. S. technological lead by aggressively promoting scientific and tech- nical productivity is a far better alternative. The panel also outlined "gray areas," categories of technologies that, by their nature, could not be either completely open or totally classified. Much discussion followed upon the release of the report, both within and outside the government. But implementation has not followed and the problem has remained unresolved. The Department of Defense In the spring of 1984, the Department of Defense (DOD) proposed an alternative policy that, in lieu of"gray areas," returned to a basic "black and white" approach whereby DOD research contracts would stipulate whether a particular project was open or classified. Many in the scientific community wel- comed this as a positive development, although most have re- served judgment until the new policy is formally adopted and implemented. In view of the prevailing federal policy on classification (that information must be restricted whenever there is reasonable doubt about the need for its protection), the government may be inclined to adopt a more conservative approach when deciding whether to classify militarily sensitive research for example, on microelectronics or composite materials that heretofore has been completely or partially unrestricted. Moreover, most re- search universities have standing policies against classified re- search projects on campus, except during national emergencies. Since most universities do not maintain secure off-campus facili- ties, there is the possibility that these institutions might with- draw from certain types of research sponsored by the Depart- ment of Defense. The Department of Commerce While the Department of Defense has been developing poli- cies for the control of information resulting from federally fund 45

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 ed research, the Department of Commerce has been working on a revision of the Export Administration Regulations, particular- ly the portion dealing with the export of technical data. This effort has been undertaken in parallel with congressional debate on new statutory language for the Export Control Act. These two initiatives may have a far greater impact on international technology transfer than the new DOD policy. Whereas the DOD policy affects only work done directly under contract to the department, changes in the export regulations affect every- thing involved in or related to any movement of products, processes, data, or expertise outside the borders of the United States. The Department of Commerce has acquiesced recently to DOD's insistence that the latter has the rights of review and timely refusal of export licenses. From the narrow standpoint of scientific communication, the proposed revision ofthe Export Control Act creates the possibil- ity teat individual researchers would be required to obtain vali dated export licenses each time they planned to give a lecture, participate in a symposium, or work in a laboratory where foreigners were to be present and where so-called "militarily critical technical data" were to be presented or discussed. Any of these activities would constitute an "export." A similar obliga- tion would exist whenever the research deals with critical techni cal data and the researchers plan to travel, to publish abroad, or, using this logic, to publish in U.S. journals read by foreign scientists. The net effect would be the regulation of scientific communication by the Export Control Act. The implications ofthese new restrictions on the private sector may be equally profound. For example, the communication of technical data to and from the foreign offices, subsidiaries, affili- ates, and suppliers of integrated, transnational corporations is central to their global nature. If these data flows were restricted, corporate research, development, and sales efforts would be inhibited. Similarly, the ability of a company to compete in world markets is based, in part, on its capacity to deliver a product, service (and related knowledge), or technical data in timely and unrestricted fashion. Particularly for the so-called "dual use" technologies (those that have both military and com 46

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SELECTED ISSUES mercial applications), the new regulations may restrict severely the freedom of companies to reveal technical data or specifica- tions at sales meetings or, in some cases, even to market a product. Many in industry have expressed their concern about these proposed changes in the export regulations. They have urged officials at the Department of Commerce and other agen- cies to engage in broader consultation and public debate before implementing them. Another aspect of the problem pertains to the multilateral control of technology transfer by and/or between free-world, industrialized countries. Some in private industry argue that, because the policies of other industrialized countries toward their own companies are generally more liberal, current U. S. national security export controls succeed only in damaging the ability of American companies to compete for their share ofthe market for high-technology international trade and there is no gain from the security standpoint. This brings into question the effectiveness of CoCom, the International Coordinating Committee on Multi- lateral Export Controls, which has evolved over the years in a largely ad hoc, incremental manner. Issues for the Congress The sometimes contending and equally legitimate aims of protecting the nation's security, enhancing the U.S. competitive position in international markets, andprotectingfreedom of scien- tific communication raise difficult and durable issues. As a result, COSEPUP has initiated a new study to address those issues, entitled The Impact of National Security Controls on Interna- tional Technology Transfer. Thepanel, to be chaired by Dr. Lew Allen, Director of the California Institute of Technology'sJet Propulsion Laboratory, andformer Air Force ChiefofStaffand Director ofthe National Security Agency, will complete its work within the timeframe ofthe 99th Congress. Hop Emily, this stubbly will assist the Congress in its efforts to develope clearpolicies to: protect the interests of national security; promotefreedom of exchange of basic scientific information; and 47

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 reconcile corporate needs to transmit technical data and sell products and processes internationally with the requirements of national security. Global Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions Several studies of the global atmospheric effects of nuclear explosions have appeared, among the most recent being the December 1984 report of the National Research Council (NRC) entitled The Effects on the Atmosphere of a Major Nuclear Exchange. These reports agree that a major nuclear exchange could alter the atmosphere seriously, at least for the short term. The precise effects depend on such variables as the season, the sites and yields of detonations, the altitudes at which explosions occur, the amount and nature of the smoke produced, and the ways in which soot particles are scavenged and rain out, especially from the upper atmosphere. Such uncertainties make it difficult to state firm conclusions. As the NRC report pointed out: All calculations of the atmospheric effects of a major nuclear war require quantitative assumptions about uncertain physical parameters. In many areas, wide ranges of values are scientifically credible, and the overall results depend materially on the values chosen. Some of these uncertainties may be reduced by further empirical or theoretical re- search, but others will be difficult to reduce. Why do these studies? One answer is that strategic thinking- and world opinion-may be affected aIrearly by the prospects of a "nuclear winter" and other possible climatic changes. As Her- bert Simon writing in Science and others have pointed out, the strategic implications of the nuclear winter hypothesis have not yet been examined to the depth required. Whatever the implica- tions, it is imperative that they rest on adequate information and well-based estimates. As the NRC report stated: Long-term atmospheric consequences imply additional problems that are not easily mitigated by prior preparedness and that are not in harmony with any notion of rapid postwar restoration of social struc 48

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SELECTED ISSUES sure. They also create an entirely new threat to populations far removed from target areas, and suggest the possibility of additional major risks for any nation that itselfinitiates use of nuclear weapons, even if nuclear retaliation should somehow be limited. Some have argued recently that the nuclear winter hypothesis has implications for strategic defense, arms control, first-strike effects, target selection, and techniques of battle management. Given that the nuclear winter hypothesis has been overlooked for decades, are there other consequences of nuclear detonations not yet considered? The need then is to identify all possible consequences, to narrow uncertainties, ant! to obtain credible, quantitative, and reasonably accurate estimates of what might happen to the atmosphere in a nuclear exchange. That research has begun; it . . neec s continuing support. Issues for the Congress The immediate issues concerning research on the prospects of a "nuclear winter" are straightforward: adequate support must be provider! to conduct the research program caZledfor in recent reports; all research findings should be public, within the legitimate constraints of national! security; and the scientific community should be engagedfully, not only in planning and conducting the research program but also in apprais- ing its quality and implications. Final Comment This Outlook has highlighted important progress in some selected fields of science and technology. It has defined a number of issues and opportunities that relate to this progress and to national goals. The Outlook records new contributions to sever- al problems once seemingly insurmountable, from cancer to the global devastation wrought by parasitic disease. American sci- ence and technology continue to display strength and leadership. 49

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THE O UTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG Y 1985 These essential qualities will be sustained only if timely attention is given to the basic resources needed, from instrumentation and facilities to the research climate and training for young investiga- tors. in sum, the course of the nation's research system, and the magnitude of its contributions to meeting national goals, con- tinues to depend on the wisdom, support, and guidance of the federal government. 50