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Appendix D Excerpts From an Analysis of the Expected I'm pact of Various Electrotechnologies on Electricity Demand The following material identifies various electrotechnologies that may affect electricity use from the present to the year 2000. The material considers separately certain industrial, commercial, residential, and transportation applications and comments on their timing and impact. TERMS USED IN THE TABLES Particular terms used in the tables are explained below. Technology: New electrotechnologies or improvements in existing . . electrotechnologies that can be expected to make an impact on electricity consumption. Market Pull: Time in which technology becomes marketable, requiring no subsidization or major research and development for market acceptance. Conceptually, this is the first major upward inflection on a market penetration "S" curve. Timing of market pull stages is classified as follows: Near Term 1984 to 1989 Mid-Term 1990 to 1995 Long Term 1996 to 2000 Distant Future beyond 2000 or never. *Excerpted by permission from O. Zimmerman and A. Faruqui, Electrotechnologies--Impact on Electric Demand: Selected Applications in the Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Electric Transportation Sectors. Palo Alto, California: Electric Power Research Institute. Internal Report. August 21, 1984. 155

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156 Intact (Table D-11: Change in electricity consumption for the technology relative to 1980 consumption, measured in megawatt hours (M~h), for years 1990 and 2000. Relative I - act (Table D-11: Increase in a specif ic technology' s electricity consumption in the year 2000 is classified as follows Small Moderate less than or equal to 1-percent inc rease ove r 1980 consumption greater than 1-percent and less than 10-percent increase over 1980 consumption Significant equal to or greater than 10-percent increase over 1980 consumption. I - act {Tables D-2, D-3 , and D-4~: Expected impact on electricity consumption in years 1990 arid 2000 relative to current consumption is classif fed as follows: Small less than or equal to 1-percent change relative to existing end use or class load, as appropriate greater than 1-percent and less than 10-percent change relative to existing end use or class load, as appropriate Signif icant equal to or greater than 10-percent change relative to existing end use or class load, as appropr i ate . NOTE: Infracts are assessed f rom a net tonal perspective . Some technologies may have signif icant utility or regional impacts with only moderate or insignif icant national impacts. Impact Type (Tables D-2, D-3, and D-4: Classified as follows : D peak demand af f ec ted more than total ki lowatt hours E total kilowatt hours affected more than peak demand B proportional demand/energy impact.

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